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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 10, 2014

They Snuck In Eurobonds Through The Backdoor / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The headlines are great, but then so is the headfake. “Greece makes ‘triumphant’ return to the markets in €3 billion bond sale”, says the Guardian. CNBC speaks of a “voracious appetite” for Greek bonds, but does question whether it’s justified. Still, at first glance it certainly looks like the Greeks have been welcomed back into the fold of civilized people:

Greece, the country once held responsible for sparking the sovereign debt crisis, managed to attract €20 billion ($27.7 billion) of offers for a new five-year bond and is set to sell €3 billion at a yield of 4.95%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Interest Rate Hikes on the Horizon? Not Likely / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Matt_Machaj

Recent weeks were not bad for those gold investors’ hearts filled with golden hopes. The price of gold depends on many factors, but past patterns can give us important hints and suggest which of them are to be carefully studied and properly comprehended. If history were to teach us anything about gold’s past market values it would most primarily be the following: watch out for the feds! Wise observation of government policies is the main driving force for what is happening in the gold market (surely along with supply factors in the longer run). As we discussed a month ago, this is the main reason for the observed correlation between the gold price and the interest rates. Not because interest rates per se are always casually linked to the gold price. But because interest rates are a reflection of current government policies.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 07, 2014

Rising Interest Rate Realities / Interest-Rates / Stock Markets 2014

By: Michael_Pento

The entire global economy now clings precariously to one crucial phenomenon. That is, how much longer can the central banks of the developed world artificially suppress interest rates at near zero percent?

The violently-negative market reaction to Janet Yellen's comments during her first press conference was a clear indication of how vulnerable the stock market is to the eventual reality of rising interest rates. All Ms. Yellen did was remind investors that the Fed Funds Rate would have to be moved up from zero percent -- probably beginning in the middle of next year. That was enough to send the major averages cascading downward faster than you could say the words "flash trading."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Will the ECB Ever Really do QE? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: MahiFX

There is an outside chance that the European Central Bank could upstage the normally all important US Non-Farm Payroll figures due this Friday with an announcement over new stimulus measures to combat potential deflationary pressures.

Last week Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and ECB executive board member left open the possibility that the central bank could engage in quantitative easing to counter deflationary pressures in the Eurozone.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Japanese Debt Debacle Now Imminent / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Michael_Pento

I first warned about the impending bust of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) when I wrote "Abe Pulls Pin on JGBs" back in January of 2013. In that commentary I laid out the math behind a collapse of the Japanese bond market and economy stemming from the nation's massive amount of government debt, combined with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ's) folly of pursuing an inflation target.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Why Is The Federal Deficit Really Falling? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

There are two ways a nation can use economic growth to reduce budget deficits.  The first method is to participate in economic growth, with a growing economy increasing tax collections.  A second method is to raise taxes so drastically that they consume all economic growth.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 24, 2014

Message to the U.S. Fed: Here Are a Few Things That You Can’t Do / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: F_F_Wiley

[A]sset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. -March 19 FOMC statement

The excerpt above or some variation has appeared in every one of the Fed’s post-FOMC meeting statements since the beginning of QE3 in September 2012.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Fed Changes the Rules to Maintain ZIRP / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The New Chairperson of the Federal Reserve showed off her dovish feathers after the latest meeting of the FOMC. Ms. Yellen abrogated the threshold of 6.5% on the unemployment rate as the starting point for short term rate hikes and replaced it with amorphous and ambiguous language that allows plenty of wiggle room with rates.

Just like a child sometimes changes the rules of a game in mid-stream in order to guarantee a favorable outcome, the Fed has ripped up the rulebook to suit its own needs.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Bank of England Lights A Fuse Under the Field of Economics / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There will be many people who don’t care, there will be many more who don’t understand, and there will be boatloads who refuse to believe it’s true, but it still is. The Bank of England, in one single document, discredited, just at first count, 1) the majority of economics textbooks, 2) vast swaths of the entire field of economics, run as it is by economists educated by those same textbooks, 3) most governments’ economic policies, designed by these economists, 4) much of its own work, also designed by the same economists, 5) Paul Krugman and 6) the “committee” that hands Krugman and his ilk their Not-So-Nobel Prizes.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Interest Rates - Is Yellen Fishing for Gold? / Interest-Rates / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Axel_Merk

If interest rates are supposed to be on the rise, why has the price of gold gone up so much this year? Is it merely because it is bouncing back after a sharp decline in 2013? We have a closer look at the link between gold and interest rates to gauge how investors may want to approach the bait provided by the Fed.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 07, 2014

Crimea Crisis - Euro-zone Economy Hide and Seek / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Crimea just declared itself part of Russia. Well, its government did. What the status is of that government is unclear, but then that’s also true for the Ukrainian government, which the west is all too eager to declare the one and only. Perhaps the first thing to do for the US and EU is to sit down with Russia and agree on the legal standing of the Kiev government, since without any such agreement no progress can be achieved. They’d have to do that without “Yats” present, because Russia doesn’t recognize him as a talking partner. Putin can promise to leave Yanukovych home if the US does the same with “Yats”.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 06, 2014

Janet Yellen Another Go / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Fred_Sheehan

Advocates for Federal Reserve disclosure harp on the five-year wait for FOMC transcripts. The reasoning goes that institutions in a democracy should be more democratic: let the people know what the Fed plots behind closed doors. The question arises: to what end?

The 2008 transcripts were released in late-February. Most media operations published stories about the Fed's absent-minded professors who missed the importance of failing financial institutions during 2008. This was not news. That has been described over the past five years, among other places, in Panderer to Power. The release, however, was an opportunity to remind investors, retirees, florists, and students receiving government financing of their precarious state.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Watch For A Fed QE Taper Time-out / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Sy_Harding

Good luck to new Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her expectation that the Fed can continue to taper back its QE stimulus at the current pace until it is completely gone by summer.

The economic reports say it is not going to happen.

In her optimism regarding the economy, expressed in her testimony before Congress this week, Yellen pointed to GDP growth hitting an average annual rate of 3.5% in the last half of last year, compared to only 1.7% in the first half.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 13, 2014

A Second Look at U.S. Savings Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Don_Miller

If you remember bond drives in school, please raise your hand. There are still a lot of us out there. I recall my teacher holding up a US Savings Bond, encouraging us to tell our parents to buy them. She went to great lengths emphasizing that they were the "the safest investment on earth."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Strength of Yellen's leadership crucial to success of Fed Taper / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MahiFX

Janet Yellen delivered a flawless performance in her first Humphrey Hawkins testimony as US Federal Reserve Chairwoman, but that performance may mask a weak leadership and that could have grave consequences for the tapering of the Fed's bond purchases.

At stake is the 'smooth' winding down of the Fed's quantitative easing programme – the biggest and boldest monetary stimulus in history. Emerging market wobbles aside, the exit hasn't been nearly as disruptive as it could have been, though it is still in the early stages.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

No Honeymoon for Janet Yellen / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Axel_Merk

On Janet Yellen’s first day on the job as Fed Chair, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 326 points; 10-year Treasury yields fell to a mere 2.58%. While a day does not set a trend, let alone create a legacy, there is no honeymoon for Janet Yellen. Volatility, seemingly absent in 2013, is back, with major implications for investors’ portfolios.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 10, 2014

Debt Deleveraging Deception Continues / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Michael_Pento

I first wrote about the “Deleveraging Deception” back in September of 2010. Unfortunately, those that would have you believe the economy has paid down its excessive debt levels are still at work trying to deceive you. But here’s the truth.

In order to perpetuate their deception that the economy has deleveraged, many Wall Street pundits often site the statistic that Household Debt Service payments as a percentage of disposable income has fallen to 9.2%, the lowest level since 1980 and down from 13.18% at the peak of the Great Recession.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 07, 2014

How Can Money Printing Exist and be Absent at the Same Time? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Matt_Machaj

In the past years, the Federal Reserve dropped many inflationary bombs on the markets. Inflationary in the purely monetary sense by supplying money in almost ridiculous amounts, especially base money figures. During this process some commentators believed that the dollar would soon evaporate, that investors will run away in favor of the euro (like the EBC had not been printing euros for their banks), or maybe in favor of the yen (like the Japanese central bank was not that inflationary), or who knows maybe even the yuan. The dollar was supposed to be either dropped by international investors, or killed from within by internal inflationary rates (or possible by those two factors combined together). None of this happened. How are we to explain this if the Fed went almost crazy in monetary creation?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Challenging the Consensus for Rising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

One of the most universal consensus calls in the markets today is that interest rates are destined to rise. Thirteen out of 13 major investment banks all think that interest rates for global fixed-income will rise this year. I get nervous when everybody is on the same side of the boat. And so does my good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners in London. This week’s Outside the Box is another of his thoughtful essays, giving us five reasons why interest rates may in fact go down this year. That is not to say that we don't both agree that rates have to go back up eventually, but to us the timing is not so obvious as it is to the major investment banks. Rather than tip his thunder, I’ll let Niels advocate for his position. (And you can see more of his consistently excellent work at www.arpinvestments.com.)

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

From the Bernanke Put to the Yellen Trap, Debt Rattle 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Sifting through the debris after the initial wave of the year’s first major storm has subsided, there’s no escaping the realization that the damage is structural, this was no incident, and the next wave may well topple the whole structure. Its foundations have been impaired so thoroughly by many years of intentional neglect that the only sensible thing to do is to raze it, lay down new foundations, and erect a whole new edifice.

Ironically, it’s the utter contempt for the free market system as exhibited by the major players in what still poses as a capitalist society, that has done us in. Recklessly flooding the entire premises with ultra cheap liquidity is the one thing the building proved to have no resistance against. Turns out, if you don’t replace weak pieces with new and stronger ones, if you don’t throw out what has started rotting, you end up compromising the entire foundations.

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