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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 19, 2014

U.S. Bond Yield Carry Traders Need To Fade Upcoming Econ Events / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Fading Strong Employment Reports

The trend in the bond markets the last several months, and basically all of 2014 has been to buy bonds in the dead periods of econ reports, or the econ reports that would be detrimental to their non-growth, more dovish Fed case. And the last several weeks have been similar to the prior months, basically wait for the stellar job`s report blows yields up to 2.70% on the 10-Year and then buy bonds, pushing down yields in the three weeks after the Employment Report, with the goal of getting out before the next Employment Report.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 17, 2014

The Fed Needs to Raise U.S. Interest Rates Now! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EconMatters

ZIRP Policy & Asset Valuations

The conditions in so many asset classes are unsustainable from a price perspective once interest rates rise even under a “new normalized rate environment” and the longer rates stay at ZIRP status these unsustainable price levels continue to move in the wrong direction from a sustainability standpoint, i.e., the underlying fundamentals apart from ZIRP policy would not support said asset prices in a natural price discovery process.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 14, 2014

Pimco Steals AIG’s Bond Fund Insurance Playbook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Pimco is putting all their chips on the table, betting that low interest rates, along with lower and more stable global growth, will last for the next 3 to 5 years; an economic condition it is referring to as the "new neutral".

In fact, the company is so convinced of this "sure thing", it's placing a straight bet--selling insurance against price fluctuations on their $230bn flagship bond fund Pimco Total Return. That means it is offering investors price stability in the bond portfolio, in return for a premium.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 14, 2014

Fed Officials Trying to Warn Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

The Purpose of Complacency Talk

The Fed officials have been coming out in speeches the last couple of weeks with rhetoric about ‘complacency’ and other such code words for chasing risk ahead of what the Federal Reserve knows is going to be an abrupt change in monetary policy over the next six months.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 12, 2014

The Bond Rally is Not a Good Omen for the Stock Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

The Fed says the economy remains healthy enough that it will continue to taper back its QE stimulus at a rate of $10 billion a month, with plans to have it at zero by October.

Speculation now is on when it will begin the next step toward returning its monetary policy to normal, by beginning to raise interest rates from their current level near zero.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 12, 2014

U.S. Fed Inside Thoughts on Inflation and Raising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Bloomberg

In an interview on Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" with Mike McKee, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said the Fed is getting closer to its objectives for full employment and price stability. He said, "The data keeps telling us we ought to be raising rates" and that "If we wait too long, we could find ourselves raising rates faster and higher than we want to."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 10, 2014

QE Asset Bubbles Out of Gas / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

I've written exhaustively about the real purpose behind the Fed's quantitative easing strategy. So one more time for those who still don't get it; the primary goal of QE is to bolster banks' balance sheets through the process of re-inflating equity and real estate prices. If investors look back at the history of QE they will be able to clearly see what happens when the Fed steps on the monetary gas; and also what occurs once it takes the foot off the pedal.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

This Could End Up as the Biggest Ponzi Finance Scheme in History / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: The great economist Hyman Minsky coined the term "Ponzi finance" to describe the situation when borrowers use more borrowed money to pay their debts.

The U.S. government engages in Ponzi finance every day since it is incapable of repaying the more than $17 trillion it has borrowed.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Bond Market Prices in a Rising Rate Environment / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

JP Morgan Asset Management put out their Q3 2014 market outlook in which they discuss bond performance in a rising rate market. You should be aware of the key points they make.

In this table, JPM explains how a 1% interest rate change would impact each of several types of bonds:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Bombs er Bonds, Debacle at Our Doorstep! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ty_Andros

The breathtaking rush into the perceived safety and stability of the Bomb er Bond markets which began at the depths of the 2008 Global financial crisis are in blow off mode. A recent Bank of international settlements annual report has been ignored due to its message of CAUTION. The main stream media routinely blacks out these messages and have done so this time. Frenzied reach for yields are occurring throughout the world.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Rising Interest Rates... Falling Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TNX took off like a bottle rocket for a second day, overcoming its 50-day Moving Average at 25.87 and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 25.92. It should complete Minor Wave 1 of (3) near the hourly Cycle Top at 26.73.

This is Primary Cycle action and it may not be over until July 25 to July 29.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Planning for Future Interest Rate Hikes: What Can History Tell Us that the Fed Won’t? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: F_F_Wiley

It stands to reason that when the Fed eventually lifts interest rates, we’ll see the usual effects. After a sustained rise in rates, you can safely bet on:

  1. Fixed investment and business earnings dropping sharply
  2. GDP growth following investment and earnings lower
  3. Many people losing their jobs
  4. Risky assets performing poorly
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Debt Makes You Dumb - American's Borrowing Just To Get By / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Rubino

As incomes stagnate and prices rise, a growing number of Americans face a tough choice: either descend a couple of rungs on the lifestyle ladder or borrow to keep it together. Many are apparently choosing door number two. From MarketWatch:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Lowest Interest Rates in 500 Years, Oil Shortages in 10 Years / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We all know that interest rates are at an ultra low level, whether it’s the rate on our savings accounts, our mortgages (though those are quite a bit higher, quelle surprise), central bank rates or yields on government bonds. All this, plus a watershed of global QEs, have led to stock exchanges at highs that have nothing at all to do anymore with the performance of the real economies they’re supposed to represent – and historically did.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

QE And CDS Are Weapons Of Mass Deception / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The age of financial innnovations found such an exalted high priest in Alan Greenspan that in his days as Fed governor he couldn’t stop talking about the dangers of regulating them, even though that was in his job description, and even though he had far too little detailed knowledge of them. His sidekicks over at the Treasury, Bob Rubin and Larry Summers, made sure their friends at Citi and JPMorgan had nothing to fear from the US government in this regard either, just as Glass-Steagall was repealed.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Europe’s Mario Draghi Now Starring in Bernanke’s Show / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: Just as Professor Bernanke exits center stage at the end of Act I of the monetary comedy he created, the scene shifts to Frankfurt. The star of Act II is European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi. As we pick up the story, Mr. Draghi has been launching a defense against a phantom threat of deflation.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 23, 2014

The Fed’s Stealth Tightening / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Casey_Research

By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist

As expected, the Fed tapered its purchases of mortgage-backed securities on Wednesday to $15 billion per month and its purchases of longer-term Treasury securities to $20 billion per month.

That means total monthly purchases, which were $85 billion last year, are now down to $35 billion. That’s a significant cut.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 23, 2014

The Bond Market Trap / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

The American financial establishment has an incredible ability to celebrate the inconsequential while ignoring the vital. Last week, while the Wall Street Journal pondered how the Fed may set interest rates three to four years in the future (an exercise that David Stockman rightly compared to debating how many angels could dance on the head of a pin), the media almost completely ignored one of the most chilling pieces of financial news that I have ever seen. According to a small story in the Financial Times, some Fed officials would like to require retail owners of bond mutual funds to pay an "exit fee" to liquidate their positions. Come again? That such a policy would even be considered tells us much about the current fragility of our bond market and the collective insanity of layers of unnecessary regulation.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 20, 2014

U.S. Fed Musical Chairs at the FOMC / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

“You can’t tell the players without a program. Get your program here!” yelled the stadium vendors of my youth. In today’s Outside the Box I bring you an excellent piece of Fed watching by Nouriel Roubini and colleagues, a “program” of the new Fed members and where they rank on the hawk-dove scale. They point out that, with a new chairperson (Janet Yellen) and vice-chair (Stanley Fischer), and with higher than normal turnover on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – over the past year, 75% of the FOMC’s membership has changed – the Fed’s need for clear communications with regard to monetary policy and forward guidance is greater than ever.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 19, 2014

The Euro Goes Negative - Sovereign Debt Bubble Is a Bigger Issue / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

Dickson Buchanan writes: The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to charge a negative interest on overnight deposits is not going to lead to a higher targeted inflation rate, despite ECB President Mario Draghi's insistence that it will. Like all cases of central planning, this decision will have unintended and costly consequences - some of which are already starting to play out. In this particular case, instead of stimulating business lending or higher prices, the decision will only stimulate the increased buying of insolvent government debt - leading us all one step closer to the economy's eventual unravelling.

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