Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
U.S. Interest Rate Hike Too late, Recession Likely in Next 12 Months - Video / Interest-Rates / Recession 2016
By: Bloomberg
Sam Zell, chairman at Equity Group Investments, spoke with Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>." He discussed the expected Federal Reserve rate hike, the risk of a near-term recession, and investor flexibility provided by low-interest.
Zell said: "I think that this interest rate hike is probably 6 or 8 months too late. I think that the economy is closer to falling over than it is to going up."
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Did "Tight" Fed Interest Rates Policy Cause the Financial Crisis? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Robert_Murphy
Recently Senator Ted Cruz aggressively questioned Janet Yellen on the Fed’s possible role in causing the financial crisis and subsequent recession. In particular, he claimed that “in the summer of 2008” the Fed “told markets that it was shifting to a tighter monetary policy,” and that this announcement “set off a scramble for cash, which caused the dollar to soar, asset prices to collapse, and CPI [growth — RPM] to fall below zero, which set the stage for the crisis.” Cruz asked Yellen if she agreed with Bernanke’s view from his new book, in which he says the Fed made a mistake by not cutting rates in September 2008.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
D-Day for Fed Fiat Credit System - Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mario_Innecco
Transcript Excerpt - December 16 2015 Wednesday it's the day will decide to hike interest rates
that's what most people think it's almost like a done deal so in my opinion
it's the Fed trying to deflate the biggest credit bubble amber and I guess
we don't have to go into details about that we all know that debt and credit
has been the highest ever USA national debt at almost 19 trillion so far it's
more than doubled since President Obama came to power so today will be the first
rate hike since I began its zero interest rate policy or its server or
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Federal Reserve At End Of Monetary Road / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: GoldCore
The all important context for Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade has been examined by the insightful Grant Williams. He is very skeptical of the Fed’s ability to continue to control markets much longer … and this is a gross understatement:
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Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Have You Considered What Wil Happen If the Fed DOESN’T Raise U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Rodney_Johnson
We’ve gotten it into our heads that Fed Chair Janet Yellen is on her way down from the mountain top carrying stone tablets etched with the details of a rate hike. We don’t know exactly what form it will take, but let there be no doubt – the financial gods have spoken, so a rate hike there will be!But it’s not that simple.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the group that determines monetary policy. This group must reach a consensus on policy changes before anything new can happen.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Is This Just the Beginning of the Euro Debt Crisis? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Harry_Dent
I've been shocked over how much QE and stimulus the central banks have signed on for in the last seven years, but they’re finally starting to reach their limit.The U.S. already did in 2014 when the Fed finally tapered. And this week, the markets are betting on a rate hike – never mind the trouble brewing in China, other emerging markets, and now Europe.
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Monday, December 14, 2015
Janet Yellen, U.S. Zero Interest Rates - Déjà vu all over Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: James_Quinn
Janet Yellen will increase interest rates for the first time in nine years on Wednesday. She isn’t raising them because the economy is strengthening. The economy just happens to be weakening rapidly, as global recession takes hold. The stock market is 3% lower than it was in December 2014, and has basically done nothing since the end of QE3. Wall Street is throwing a hissy fit to try and stop Janet from boosting rates by an inconsequential .25%. Janet would prefer not to raise rates, but the credibility and reputation of her bubble blowing machine is at stake. The Fed has enriched their Wall Street benefactors over the last six years, while destroying the real economy and the middle class.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Soaring Bond Yields - This Is How Fast It Happens / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For a while there, companies deemed to be highly risky were nonetheless able to borrow money for less than 6%. And borrow they did. Frackers, ultra-high-leverage retail chains and various other close-to-the-edge entities slurped up trillions from yield-starved investors who had forgotten about the other side of the risk/return equation.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Currency Markets Anticipating a U.S. Interest Rate Hike Next Week / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dan_Norcini
Watching the price action in the currency markets it is becoming clearer to me that the Forex crowd has now moved beyond any expected rate hike by the Fed next week and has shifted its focus to "WHAT COMES AFTER THAT?"
In other words, we have probably seen the high in the US Dollar for a bit since the impact on the currency has effectively already been discounted into its price. Seeing the Fed Funds futures showing a probability of a Fed rate hike next week above 80%, for all practical trading purposes, it is now a done deal.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Government Debt Is Not Like Private Debt / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: MISES
Simon Wilson writesL As the Labour Party fights with Tories over the need to slightly rein in government spending in the UK, opponents of even the slightest bit of austerity have turned out to claim that there is no virtue in “living within your means.”
In a recent article in The Guardian, Ha-Joon Chang, attacked even the Tory government’s timid claim that it wasn’t a great idea to spend more than the government collects in tax revenues. But for the new radical left Labour Party on whose behalf Chang’s article was written, this notion is as quaint as it is “simply wrong.”
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Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Bank of Canada Announces Negative Interest Rates; Loonie Sinks to 2004 Low / Interest-Rates / Canadian $
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Canadian dollar, affectionately known as the loonie because of a loon on the one dollar coin, has crashed vs. the US dollar.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Fed's Rocket Ship Turns Hoverboard / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
Over the past year, while the U.S. economy has continually missed expectations, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has assured all who could stay awake during her press conferences that it was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy. In delivering months of mildly tough talk (with nothing in the way of action), Yellen began stressing that WHEN the Fed would finally raise rates (for the first time in almost a decade) was not nearly as important as how fast and how high the increases would be once they started. Not only did this blunt the criticism of those who felt that the delays were unnecessary, and in fact dangerous, but it also began laying the groundwork for the Fed to do nothing over a much longer time period. To the delight of investors, the Fed has telegraphed that it will adopt a "low and slow" trajectory for the foreseeable future and move, in the words of Larry Kudlow, like "an injured snail."
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
A Peek Behind the Fed Policy Curtain / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article was originally and simply titled ‘Market Management’ as the opening segment from this week’s NFTRH 372. We then covered US and global stock markets and precious metals in detail, along with brief but ongoing negativity about commodities (but also what to look for regarding signs of change), a currency update and extensive market sentiment and indicator updates.
Sunday, December 06, 2015
The Fed, Lindbergh and Scientifically Created Depressions / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Mario_Innecco
Transcript: non-farm payroll came out yesterday on Friday iraqi amount of 211,000 was expected 200,000 so it better than expected number unemployment rate stayed at five percent in the previous number was revised higher to 298,000 from 271 so it's a good number stock market went there and finish up just under three hundred and seventy points to sense and yeah gordon supra surprisingly went up more than 2% gold was up 25 bucks and it closed above he 1070 level finish around 1086 silver finish more than 40 cents at 14 goals 25 I think so yeah pretty encouraging buy...
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Friday, December 04, 2015
Bill Gross: Fed is "Certainly Set to Go" / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross of Janus Capital Management joined Bloomberg Radio and Television to react to today's jobs report.
Gross said the Federal Reserve is "certainly set to go…Fed is ready to go I think because of concerns on the real economy."
When asked if he lost money yesterday, Gross said: " Oh no, made money yesterday. I had lots of calls, sold lots of calls on five and 10-year German bunds, went the other way this time and so made a lot of money, making a lot of money today on those particular trades."
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Friday, December 04, 2015
Does Draghi's Coup Secure Yellen's Interest Rate Liftoff? / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
To some, the ECB has underdelivered today by not only cutting rates by a smaller than expected 0.10 bp in the deposit rate to -0.3% from -0.2% (vs exp -0.4%) but also disappointed most market players by only extending the duration of QE to an additional 6 months and not adding to the monthly $60 bn QE. The ECB's decision to opt for QE extension rather than QE expansion reflects the broad signs of improvement in German growth business surveys. Germany's IFO and various Eurozone PMIs and confidence surveys have hit 17 to 52-month highs.
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Friday, December 04, 2015
U.S. Dollar and Bonds Sink as ECB Cuts Rates to -0.3%, Pledging More QE Until March 2017 / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
ECB president Mario Draghi's announcement today regarding more QE fell far short of the sky-high expectations of market participants.
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Fed's Yellen Running Out of Makeup - Video / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Mario_Innecco
It's Tuesday before non-farm payroll which is coming out on Friday but it's been an interesting day in the markets we've had some interesting data in the us- the manufacturing I assume PM. number came out of 48 points, was forecast to come out and it dropped from 50 the previous month so that's quite a big drop in its below 50 which means a contraction so if you look at the headlines on Zero Hedge for example today we've had some interesting headlines about the US economy one of them says Atlanta Federal Reserve slashes fourth-quarter GDP forecast from 2.3 to 1.4.
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Thursday, November 26, 2015
U.S. Bond Market Not Destined to Crash in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sol_Palha
Always do what you are afraid to do. Ralph Waldo Emerson
The trend in bonds was bullish for a long time, and one can see how bonds ran up during that time frame. Currently, its neutral and that also has to be viewed through a bullish lens as it should have turned negative given the run-up. Bonds need to close on a weekly basis above 160.00 relatively soon. In fact, there is a good chance that if the next run up fails to take out the August highs of 161-23, bonds will be paving the way for a move down to the 152.00 ranges and then 147-148 ranges. Traders willing to take on a bit of a risk could consider opening long positions at both levels. Some funds could be deployed at 152 or better and some at 148 or better. Market Update, Nov 1st, 2015.
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Thursday, November 26, 2015
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: EconMatters
The Federal Reserve has been telegraphing to markets that they are going to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month at its December Fed Meeting. The financial markets think they are serious this time and have been pricing in this 25 basis point rate hike for the past 6 weeks. The real question is that since the Fed has told us that they are Data Dependent for the past 7 years regarding changes to monetary policy, what has really changed in the economic data for the positive? Why now of all times do they decide to raise rates? Are they raising rates for the right reasons? These are just some of our concerns as the Federal Reserve embarks upon their final FOMC Meeting on December 16th 2015. Read full article... Read full article...