Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, December 04, 2015

Does Draghi's Coup Secure Yellen's Interest Rate Liftoff? / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

To some, the ECB has underdelivered today by not only cutting rates by a smaller than expected 0.10 bp in the deposit rate to -0.3% from -0.2% (vs exp -0.4%) but also disappointed most market players by only extending the duration of QE to an additional 6 months and not adding to the monthly $60 bn QE. The ECB's decision to opt for QE extension rather than QE expansion reflects the broad signs of improvement in German growth business surveys. Germany's IFO and various Eurozone PMIs and confidence surveys have hit 17 to 52-month highs.

Friday, December 04, 2015

U.S. Dollar and Bonds Sink as ECB Cuts Rates to -0.3%, Pledging More QE Until March 2017 / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

ECB president Mario Draghi's announcement today regarding more QE fell far short of the sky-high expectations of market participants.

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Fed's Yellen Running Out of Makeup - Video / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Mario_Innecco

It's Tuesday before non-farm payroll which is coming out on Friday but it's been an interesting day in the markets we've had some interesting data in the us- the manufacturing I assume PM. number came out of 48 points, was forecast to come out and it dropped from 50 the previous month so that's quite a big drop in its below 50 which means a contraction so if you look at the headlines on Zero Hedge for example today we've had some interesting headlines about the US economy one of them says Atlanta Federal Reserve slashes fourth-quarter GDP forecast from 2.3 to 1.4.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

U.S. Bond Market Not Destined to Crash in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sol_Palha

Always do what you are afraid to do. Ralph Waldo Emerson

The trend in bonds was bullish for a long time, and one can see how bonds ran up during that time frame. Currently, its neutral and that also has to be viewed through a bullish lens as it should have turned negative given the run-up. Bonds need to close on a weekly basis above 160.00 relatively soon. In fact, there is a good chance that if the next run up fails to take out the August highs of 161-23, bonds will be paving the way for a move down to the 152.00 ranges and then 147-148 ranges.  Traders willing to take on a bit of a risk could consider opening long positions at both levels.  Some funds could be deployed at 152 or better and some at 148 or better.  Market Update, Nov 1st, 2015.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: EconMatters

The Federal Reserve has been telegraphing to markets that they are going to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month at its December Fed Meeting. The financial markets think they are serious this time and have been pricing in this 25 basis point rate hike for the past 6 weeks. The real question is that since the Fed has told us that they are Data Dependent for the past 7 years regarding changes to monetary policy, what has really changed in the economic data for the positive? Why now of all times do they decide to raise rates? Are they raising rates for the right reasons? These are just some of our concerns as the Federal Reserve embarks upon their final FOMC Meeting on December 16th 2015.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Fed’s Tarullo: U.S. Interest Rates Liftoff Should Wait for Signs of Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel Tarullo spoke with Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on “Bloomberg <GO>” yesterday. He discussed when the Fed will begin raising rates and waiting for tangible signs of inflation before moving.

There’s “more than a pretty good chance” that banks will face “some net increase in the post-stress minimum capital requirements,” Tarullo said.

DAVID WESTIN: So we want to turn now to our special guest for this half hour, Federal Reserve Board Governor, Daniel Tarullo. Dan has been on the Fed now since 2009, I believe it is. He has served on the --

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Janet Yellen Responds as a Central Banker Would / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Gary_Tanashian

Let's try to untangle the web of Fed-speak going on here. "Reality" for our purposes is defined as my opinion, obviously.

Yellen Defends Seven Years of Low Interest Rates in Letter to Nader

Fed-Speak:

Warning that "an overly aggressive increase in rates would at most benefit savers only temporarily," she argued in the letter released Monday in Washington that the Fed's seven-year era of zero rates had sheltered American savers from dramatic declines in the value of their homes and retirement accounts.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Will Fed Raise the Discount Interest Rate Today? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Will the Fed raise its discount rate at its previously unscheduled meeting for today? Thursday's post on the Federal Reserve's website that "an expedited, unscheduled meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve to review the discount rate" will be held today (Monday) at 11:30 ET (16:30 London/GMT). The discount rate, the rate at which banks borrow from the Fed's discount window is set by the Board of Governors, rarely used by the banks. This must not be confused with the fed funds rates, which is set by the Federal Open Markets Committee.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Will the Fed Raise U.S. Interest Rates on Monday, November 23, 2015? - Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mario_Innecco

Earlier this morning I spoke about how the Fed will meet on Monday November 2015 even though the next meetings on December 16. They're having an expedited procedure or meeting which means their meeting in no rush and behind closed doors. It will be interesting to see what they do and might even raise rates this coming Monday even though that's very very unusual.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Casey_Research

By E.B. Tucker

Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.

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Friday, November 13, 2015

The U.S. Shadow Interest Rate Casts Gloom / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

Nearly 92% of economists surveyed this week by the Wall Street Journal expect that our eight-year experiment with unprecedented monetary easing from the Federal Reserve will come to an end at the next Fed meeting in December. Since we have had the monetary wind at our back for so many years, at least a few have begun to question our ability to make economic and financial gains against actual headwinds. But in reality, the tightening cycle that the forecasters are waiting for actually started last year. Sadly, the markets and the economy are already showing an inability to handle it.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Debt overwhelms most people in debt based fiat currency economies (US, UK, Europe, and others).  Credit cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, and more …

Debt overwhelms most governments in debt based fiat currency economies.  They are in debt because governments spend more than their revenues, which is a truly simple concept.  However, don’t expect fiscal sanity to return anytime soon.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Japanese Bonds Yield of Dreams? / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: EWI

Why Japan's long-battered bond market may be gearing up for a comeback

Saber-tooth tiger. Wooly mammoth. Japanese government issued bonds?

Well it's happened. After years of enduring an unrelenting bear market (marked by plunging yields and rising prices) -- the long-battered Japanese government bond has made it on to the endangered financial species list.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

10-year US Treasury Note / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

The rate on the 10-year US Treasury Note (ticker symbol TNX) had its best week since June last week with a gain of 8.46% to close at 23.33. It even printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on Friday.

Most of the week’s gain came on Friday’s strong non-farm payroll report. The breakout from the June bear trendline would seem to open the door for a return to the June high near 24.75 but…

Monday, November 09, 2015

The War on Cash is Real / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks have rallied over the last 10 days in part by ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement that if push comes to shove, the ECB will push interest rates even further into negative territory (NIRP).

This represents just another round in the War on Cash, first implemented by the Central Banks in 2008.

It’s a little known fact that the cause for the gut-wrenching collapsing in late September-October 2008 was due to a significant portion of investors trying to move their money out of money market funds.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Western Central Banks Playing with Hyper Inflationary Fire / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Mario_Innecco

There are various examples in history of when national currencies have been debased so much that confidence in those currencies have been lost to such an extent that the nominal value of hard assets and productive assets in those currencies have gone up in a parabolic fashion. The grandaddy of currency debasement was the reichsmark during the Weimar Republic period in the early 1920s Germany. There are present day examples of currency debasement and rising local stock prices like Argentina and Venezuela but we will focus on the German example.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

US Dollar Surges, December Rate Hike Odds Soar Following Strong Jobs Report / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Following today's jobs report the odds of a December rate hike approached 70% and the US dollar index surged.

Friday, November 06, 2015

Bill Gross: '100% Chance' Fed will Raise U.S. Interest Rates in December / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio and Television this morning to respond to today's jobs report.

Gross said there is a "100 percent chance" the Fed will raise interest rates in December after jobs surged. "They're ready to go." He said: "100 percent that they go in December and then try and tamp it down with mild, gradual language that will keep the dollar from strengthening even further."

On dollar strength, Gross said: "I think the Fed fears it...They took it out of their statement last month. But prior to that, they were cognizant of the fact that a very strong dollar has negative implications for emerging markets... It's certainly a negative for the global financial system because there are many bets and much dollar denominated debt in terms of emerging market corporations and sovereigns will be impacted by this."

Friday, November 06, 2015

Worlds Largest Debtor Ever Raises U.S. ‘Debt Ceiling’…Again / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: GoldCore

The US government has once again agreed to increase it’s so-called debt “ceiling” – this time from $18.5 trillion to $20 trillion.  The so-called debt ceiling is recognized industry-wide as a complete misnomer.

Thursday, November 05, 2015

The Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates at 321-Year Lows / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Mario_Innecco

We hear constantly from the U.K. government and mainstream publications like the Financial Times that the economy of Great Britain is recovering strongly and that the labour market is robust so it is probably surprising for many people that in spite of the strong growth in the U.K. economy that the Bank of England has kept its base rate at 0.5%. This almost zero interest rate has been kept since March 5th, 2009 when the MPC or Monetary Policy Committee cut the base rate from 1% to 0.5% and at the time it was understandable as the U.K. financial system was on the brink of a total meltdown and the U.K. government had to write a cheque and issue loan guarantees for £500 billion to bail out the big banks.