Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 20, 2017
Warning Signs Of Instability In Russia / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Geopolitical Futures forecasted that 2017 will be “an inflection point in the long-term destabilization of Russia.” After just six weeks, there are clear signs that this forecast is right on track. You can read more about GPF's outlook for Russia in This Week in Geopolitics (subscribe here for free).
Russia has four areas of instability: the distribution and prevalence of wage arrears, pressure on its banking system, low-level social and economic unrest, and government purges.
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Sunday, February 19, 2017
Deep State Power v. Trump / Politics / US Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
America’s deep state is divided on Trump. He couldn’t have been elected without enough support.
Post-inauguration, things changed. The balance of power shifted against him, leaving him vulnerable, already weakened this early in his tenure, unprecedented for a US president.
His record so far in office is another matter, though too soon to judge him definitively. Still, disturbing signs aren’t encouraging. More on this below.
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Saturday, February 18, 2017
The Flynn Fiascom, the Trump Revolution Ends in a Whimper / Politics / US Politics
By: Mike_Whitney
The Flynn fiasco is not about national security advisor Michael Flynn’s conversations with the Russian ambassador. It’s much deeper than that. It’s about Russia. It’s about Putin. It’s about the explosive rise of China and the world’s biggest free trade zone that will eventually stretch from Lisbon to Vladivostok. It’s about the one country in the world that is obstructing Washington’s plan for global domination. (Russia) And, it’s about the future; which country will be the key player in the world’s most prosperous and populous region, Asia.
Thursday, February 16, 2017
NSA, CIA, FBI, Media Establishment 'Deep State' War Against Emerging 'Trump State' / Politics / US Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest actions in the established military, intelligence corporate, media complexes systematic war on the Trump Presidency was to takedown the Presidents National Security advisor, Michael Flynn following leaks of conversations recorded between Michael Flynn and the Russian Ambassador by the intelligence agencies to the New York Times amongst other establishment media outlets. With the Democrats jumping on board the lynch mob bandwagon with cries of Treason!
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Maps That Show The US’ Strategy In Asia-Pacific / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently wrapped up his first international trip whose purpose was to “listen to the concerns of South Korean and Japanese leaders.”
The two countries are crucial US allies in Asia, and both face serious threats in their near abroad.
Discussing security threats, though, wasn’t the main goal of Mattis’s trip. He was there to assure both countries that the Trump administration will not abandon the US alliance structure in the Pacific.
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Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Iran’s Strengthening Economy Is A Threat To The US—Not Nukes / Politics / Iran
By: John_Mauldin
BY KAMRAN BOKHARI : There is a great deal of noise over the fate of the Iran nuclear deal which we wrote about last year. It is going to be very hard to roll back the agreement announced a year ago. Thus, it’s unclear what Trump can do to limit Iran’s benefits from the respite in sanctions.
The issue is not a nuclear Iran or one with ballistic missile capability, but rather an economy that is improving because of the nuclear deal.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Bankrupt US and Venezuelan Regimes Barring Travel to Citizenry Attempting to Flee / Politics / Social Issues
By: Jeff_Berwick
Over the past few years we have watched the situation in Venezuela continually deteriorate as the country’s socialist regime led by Nicolas Maduro has helped to hyperinflate the nation into oblivion.
For Venezuelans, this runaway inflation has come with a number of awful consequences.
The situation is especially dire in Caracas where people often have to kill and eat stray animals to survive since the bread lines which stretch blocks, oftentimes run out of food.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
All the Fake News That’s Fit to Print / Politics / Mainstream Media
By: BATR
Understanding the complex relationships that make up human endeavors permeates every aspect of society and politics. The ability to be informed about events is a basic motivation to search out news about what is exactly happening in the world we all live in. Journalism purports to report the first draft of history. In practice the press and media coverage is systemically bereft of relevant facts and completely void of objectivity. The currency of the realm is trust for all journalists. Their collective credibility is bankrupt for a very simple reason; their newscasts are based upon lies, newspeak and intentional deception.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Trump A New Jacksonian Era? The Fourth Turning (2) / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
In Part One of this article I documented the populist administration of Andrew Jackson and similarities to Donald Trump's populist victory in the recent election. I'll now try to assess the chances of a Trump presidency accomplishing its populist agenda.
The Trumpian Era
Read full article... Read full article..."But you must remember, my fellow-citizens, that eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty, and that you must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing. It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their own selfish purposes." - Andrew Jackson
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Proposed Tax Reforms Face Enormous Headwinds / Politics / Taxes
By: John_Mauldin
Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management produce a must-read quarterly letter I’ve featured multiple times in my weekly newsletter, Outside the Box (subscribe here for free).
This piece on tax reform is one of the most important pieces they’ve written in a long time.
Lacy and Van establish that proposed tax reforms will face enormous headwinds that were not there during previous tax-reform eras. This means that the benefits that Republicans think will accrue are likely to take longer to appear… and be less than expected. And that means it will take more than what is proposed right now to jump-start the economy.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Americans Will Pay For Trump’s “America First” Plan / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Mauldin
Jared Dillian says the American consumer will pay for Trump’s “America First” plan.
In a recent video interview with Mauldin Economics, Jared Dillian notes that Trump’s new “America First” trade policy is anti-free trade. Plus, given the Republican Party has been the champion of free trade for decades, Trump’s new trade policy does not sit well with many in the party.
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Monday, February 13, 2017
Trump a New Jacksonian Era? / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!" - Andrew Jackson
Sunday, February 12, 2017
Trump Not Pro-Russia, Says Its Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman / Politics / Russia
By: Stephen_Lendman
Profiles in courage are absent in Washington, especially on geopolitical issues, notably on relations with Russia.
In January, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Trump is not pro-Russia. She distinguished between Russophobe Hillary Clinton and Trump’s more responsible comments, calling getting along with Russia a good thing.
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Sunday, February 12, 2017
Channel 4 War on 'Fake News' Ends - The New News Age / Politics / Mainstream Media
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Channel 4 is ending its week long war on 'fake news'. Whilst I watched the 'fake news' sections on Channel 4 News. However I found their mocumentaries mind numbingly stupid! All that time and effort, all that programming and they missed the OBVIOUS! in that its mostly ALL FAKE NEWS, it always has been since even before the first printing presses started running, and the proper name for alt 'fake news' is CONSPIRACY THEORY! There have ALWAYS BEEN conspiracy theories of this that or the other as labeled by the establishment media of the time that tends to persist for decades until when a conspiracy theory may be proven to true! Though I prefer 'most probable' over the word 'truth', because it is all propaganda spun by the elite of the day where the stories periodically go through revisions as required.
Saturday, February 11, 2017
Sheffield Trees Felling Crisis, Police Dawn Raids and Arrest, Amey £2bn PFI / Politics / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
Sheffield continues to make the national headlines for all the wrong reasons, one of people across Britain asking why is Sheffield renowned for being the greenest city in Britain is in the process of cutting down thousands of its most ancient trees? This selection of recent videos answers why as one of private profit, a huge £2bn PFI contract with Amey, coupled with lack of city council competency in managing Amey as being at the heart of Sheffield's trees felling crisis. Which is increasingly prompting the people of Sheffield to rise up and protest against the apparent madness that has gripped the city that includes dawn police raids to chop down trees and a growing list of arrests of protesting residents.
Friday, February 10, 2017
NATO Is Obsolete for the US / Politics / US Military
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Donald Trump deeply upset the Europeans when he raised the possibility that NATO is obsolete and that the European Union is failing.
But this isn’t the first time these issues have been discussed. I wrote about it last year, and the conversation has only continued.
What Trump has done is simply bring into the open the question of Europe’s relationship with the US.
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Friday, February 10, 2017
The Most Exciting Period of Human History Is yet to Come / Politics / Technology
By: John_Mauldin
While complexity mathematics and information theory may be relatively new, the general concepts contained in them were well known to previous generations of economists dating back to Adam Smith.
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Friday, February 10, 2017
Tension between Italy, Germany, and the EU Is Growing / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : As mentioned in our 2017 forecast, Geopolitical Futures said that the evolution of the Italian banking crisis will force a confrontation between Italy, Germany, and the European Union. The groundwork for this confrontation was laid last year, and the face-off has further evolved already this year.
In December 2016, two Italian members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the populist Europe of Nations and Freedom groups asked the European Central Bank (ECB) in a letter to explain the “widening balance divergences between individual countries [in the eurozone] since the 2008 crisis.”
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Thursday, February 09, 2017
The Leading Power In East Asia Will Be Japan—Not China / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures.
Our readers know that GPF is bearish on China. And while some may disagree on that point, they usually see that the reasoning is sound. China will face serious problems in coming years… problems that will strain the Communist Party’s rule. (I write about this topic extensively in This Week in Geopolitics—subscribe here for free.)
Japan, though, seems a bridge too far. Its population is less than a tenth of China’s size (and it’s not just aging… it’s shrinking). Japan also has a debt-to-GDP ratio over 229%.
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Thursday, February 09, 2017
Germany Blasts Israel’s Illegal Land Grab / Politics / Israel
By: Stephen_Lendman
A previous article discussed Israel’s Resolution Law, retroactively approving around 4,000 illegally built settler outpost homes on privately owned Palestinian land - confiscating it for exclusive Jewish occupation and use, legislation its attorney general opposed and won’t defend.
Anything about Israel is sensitive in Germany, given its Nazi era mass extermination of Jews.
Last December, its Foreign Ministry spokesman expressed great concern about the pending legislation, saying it “violates international law,” along with “undermin(ing)” any chance for a two-state solution.
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