Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 02, 2020
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: N_Walayat
Paypal are seeing an opportunity in a crisis, one of wanting to manage the US Governments distribution of $1200 Coronavirus stimulus to every adult American who earns under $75,000 per year and $500 for each child.
However, there is a fly in the ointment as $360 billion would be a lot of money to be potentially parked in Paypal's coffers! That's before any transaction fees are applied. Therefore, there is a high risk of corporations such as Paypal seeing such a vast sums of funds as an opportunity to capitalise upon through limiting account holders access to stimulus funds.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So Boris Johnson is infected and self isolating, Matt Hancock the Health Minster is infected and self isolating, Chris Whitty the Chief Medical officer is infected and self isolating. Westminister is now turning into a hottest of UK hotspots as the officials and MP's failed to practice that which they preached. Maybe with these idiots out of the picture the nation can act more competently in containing the pandemic. Meanwhile the government representative at the daily briefings has started mentioning that if the UK can keep deaths below 20,000 than that would be a good thing! What's South Korea's number? 150! CRIMINAL! That's what the governments response to Coronavirus has been CRIMINAL! Now there are even reports that the government is under reporting the number of deaths perhaps in attempts to average out the numbers over a month rather than to post spikes that would panic healthcare workers and the general public.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US has had a major advantage over the rest of the western world, which is that it has had a LOT MORE TIME TO PRPARE FOR THE PANDEMIC, Unfortunately the US only really started to actually act in any significant manner when the stock prices started to collapse early March. However, that still gave the US a good head start on the likes of the UK, which is reflected in the US's low CFR rate of 1.3%.
Which suggests that the US DOES have a chance to get a grip on the pandemic and veer more towards South Korea then Italy or Britain where the pandemic is more less now baked in.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion / Politics / Pandemic
By: Dan_Steinbock
The novel coronavirus is exploding in the US and Europe, due to complacency and inadequate preparedness. The escalation will translate to debt explosion, which will further complicate and prolong the fight against the virus globally.
As the COVID-19 challenge moved from imported cases to local transmissions, I warned in the briefing of March 9 that the rise of local transmissions was a game-changer in the coronavirus escalation. Here's what I projected then:
“Even though many observers expected virus challenges to ease toward April, the acceleration of new cases outside China is only beginning and likely grossly under-reported. The number of confirmed cases worldwide is set to climb in the future – even faster as tests are broadened in major affected countries.”
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves / Politics / Shopping
By: HGR
What it was like to try and shop at UK Supermarkets (Tesco) in the countdown to lock down and social distancing. after most of the shelves had been cleared by panic buying.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
P FOR PANDEMIC / Politics / Pandemic
By: James_Quinn
“People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.” – Alan Moore – V for Vendetta
“Authority, when first detecting chaos at its heels, will entertain the vilest schemes to save its orderly facade.” – Alan Moore – V for Vendetta
I wrote an article called V for Vendetta – 2011 just over nine years ago on the day after the Tucson shooting where congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and eighteen others were shot by a psychologically disturbed lunatic, with six dying. At the time, I thought of the scene from the V for Vendetta movie where someone did something stupid and all hell broke loose. I expected a similar result from this act, but those in control of our society were successfully able to put a cork in the bottle, preserving their façade of order.
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up / Politics / Pandemic
By: The_Energy_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold comments on where he believes the economy is heading.
Those who never predicted a financial collapse in the first place are now edging closer to the swamp to dip their toes into the water. Now they are suggesting, perhaps we could have a recession."
Forget that. You cannot have every supply chain in the world chopped in two and have a recession. A depression was baked into the cake before the Corona popped out of the six-pack. The US government dumping a $6 trillion dollar bailout for their buddies that has more pork in it than the butt of a two-ton pig is the proverbial pissing up a rope. We are in a depression. The entire financial system, education system, medical system, political system, hell, the entire artifice needs a total reset.
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age / Politics / Religion
By: Dr_R_M_Mathew
The outbreak of corona pandemics , spreading from China to Europe, Iran, GCC Countries, Africa, India and several other countries has brought a standstill in the Global Economy, affecting all economies of the world. Stock markets have practically collapsed, followed by similar collapses in trade, travel, tourism, education, religious practices, normal public governance, Information Technology, industrial and the service sectors.
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Monday, March 30, 2020
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The world is increasingly going into LOCK DOWN, with the latest being India (a lock down mostly in all but name). Still Europe is in lock down, large swaths of the US are increasingly going into lock down that saw a fumbling in the dark President Trump first suggest a quarantine for the entire state of New York and neighbouring states, only to back track a few hours later when the adults in the White House had a quiet word with him thus saving the US from another 10% down trading day Monday!
What's just as worrying as the Coronavirus are the Gestapoesk powers being handed to the Police, it won't be long before the powers start going to their heads and abuse of power starts takes place. At least in the UK usually the worst ordinary citizens are going to face is being tasered, expect far worse in the US a case of shoot first test later policy!
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World / Politics / Social Issues
By: John_Mauldin
It should be pretty obvious that we need to rethink how our supply chains are constructed. The U.S. is running out of something as simple as mouth-testing swabs. It seems the entire world supply is made by two companies.
When asked where I thought those were, I replied “China.” It is worse. They are both in Milan, Italy.
Milan is currently under siege in total lockdown, and the swabs are stranded on the docks in their own kind of quarantine. The link in that supply chain has snapped.
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
An Investment in Life / Politics / Pandemic
By: Patrick_Watson
If you’re following the coronavirus news from home, thank you for helping society through this hard time. Home is where we should all be, except for medical, food, public safety and other such essential workers. Please be careful if you do have to run out for necessities.
None of us have seen anything like this. Even in wartime, there are rear areas and safe zones where people can breathe easily. In this situation, we’re all vulnerable everywhere.
Virus mitigation measures, while necessary, are severely straining the economy. Places like mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore show that early, aggressive measures can work. But they come at tremendous cost.
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast / Politics / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
So how bad are things about to get in the city of Sheffield which like London and Birmingham is coronavirus hotspot, so it's likely we'll be getting our own temporary Nightingale Hospital probably at the English Institute of Sport or Arena. The starting point for that is likely to happen next is my trend forecast of 22nd March, but first.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK government started the ball rolling in announcing a number of measures in attempts at slowing the parabolic curve that the pandemic was on, first of which was to close all schools as of Friday 20th March, which in my opinion was about 2 weeks later than they should have closed the schools. Still in terms of pandemic time line it is about 5 days ahead of when Italy closed all of their schools, so 'should' help resolve towards a better outcome.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis concludes in detailed trend forecasts for UK and US Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US AND France are on a similar trend trajectory of under testing, thus as I have been warning for a month now that the US has probably a huge pool of infected, circulating and doubling every 3 or 4 days. That I estimated 2 weeks ago to be about ten times the official number to total at least 4000. Where US current tally of 23,000 suggests that the actual number of infected could easily exceed 250,000, more than ten fold the recorded infected number due to the fact the US IS STILL NOT TESTING ENOUGH!
110,000 tests to date is a mere pinprick, the US should be testing that number EVERY DAY!
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Friday, March 27, 2020
The Government's Pandemic Strategy Is a Reckless One / Politics / Pandemic
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a surefire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression. Italy, for example, already had a 135 percent debt-to-GDP ratio before the crisis. It is hard to imagine how it will be able to borrow more without mutualizing its debt with the rest of the EU—something the northern European countries are still strongly opposed to. The European Central Bank is already printing money like crazy, and if Italy becomes another Greece, the ECB will make it ramp up the printing presses even more.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
Planned-Demic 2020: War on Cash Goes Into Overdrive, New US Digital Currency in Coronavirus Bill / Politics / Pandemic
By: Jeff_Berwick
Another day, another coronavirus story.
The latest and biggest country after China to do a complete shutdown now is India.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most probable reason why Britain and the US did nothing during February was due to both nations apparently following the "Herd Immunity" Protocol, which requires approx 60% of the population to become infected so that the virus is no longer able to spread to the remaining population as confirmed by the Chief Scientific Advisor to Boris Johnson's Government who publically stated this objective but refused to discuss the implied death toll.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The Coronavirus Tsunami that is already starting to hit London will reach the city of Sheffield in about 5 days time, ahead of most other UK cities because Sheffield is already a Coronavirus hot spot!
The latest statistics show Sheffield has 240 Coronavirus cases, and if your not already aware that the NHS for some weeks has only been testing patients who turn up ill to hospital. Which translates into a likely pool of over 7000 infected people in Sheffield already. So how much capacity does Sheffield NHS hospitals have to deal with critically ill Coronavirus patients, requiring ventilators to keep them alive?
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Thursday, March 26, 2020
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Italy is in full blown Coronavirus crisis mode that just posted a record 793 deaths! Higher than the worst that China reported (fake numbers). However, where Italy is concerned it's not all bad news, as momentum in the rate of new infections has been slowing for some time, which suggests that by early April Italy's rate of infections should have started to flatten out at about 130,000 infected. So whilst there is a lot more pain to come i.e. Italy's infections numbers are likely set to double once more, nevertheless there is light at the end of Italy's dark tunnel.
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