Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, January 06, 2019
The Fed IS the Ugly Truth / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This Fed thing just keeps going on, and it needs to stop. There is nothing in the discussion about the Federal Reserve these days that has any value other than it provides even more proof that the Fed has killed off the most essential elements of what once made the US economy function. All markets, stocks, bonds, housing markets, all price discovery, all murdered. No heartbeat. Pining for the fjords.
And instead of addressing that, and I’m not even talking about addressing fixing what is wrong, all I see is neverending stuff about Jay Powell using, or not using, terms such as “patient” or “accommodative”. Like any of it means anything coming from him and his ilk. Other than for making ‘investors’ a quick buck. Like a quick buck could ever trump the survival of entire market systems.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Will Technology Save Baby Boomers? / Politics / Demographics
By: Patrick_Watson
Baby Boomers get blamed for all kinds of problems.Much of the blame is unfair. But there is no doubt the first postwar generation brought a lot of changes—culturally, economically, and otherwise.
Last month, I helped John Mauldin write his Pyramids of Crisis letter. As a result of decisions made decades ago, there’s a rapidly growing proportion of older people in the US.
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Tuesday, January 01, 2019
2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
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Monday, December 31, 2018
How to Fund Trumps Border Wall While Saving Lives / Politics / US Politics
By: Steve_H_Hanke
President Trump and Congressional Democrats have decided to enliven the Christmas season with a game of chicken over President Trump’s proposed “border wall.” As a result, the federal government is partly shut down until the issue is resolved.
The President wants $5 billion to start building the wall. Democrats have offered just $1.6 billion. If the problem truly is money and not that the Democrats oppose a wall under any circumstances, there is a place in the federal budget to find all the money the President wants while saving thousands of lives a year in the process.
More than 700,000 Americans are afflicted with kidney failure. Of those, almost 30 percent live with transplant kidneys with the remaining 70 percent on dialysis. Under a 1972 law, the federal government pays for kidney dialysis for every American whose private insurance does not cover treatment. In 2016, the latest year for which data are available, Medicare spent $35.4 billion on patients with kidney failure (read: end stage renal disease).
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Saturday, December 29, 2018
Universal Basic Income Is Easier Than It Looks / Politics / Benefits
By: Ellen_Brown
Calls for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) have been increasing, most recently as part of the “Green New Deal” introduced by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and supported in the last month by at least 40 members of Congress. A UBI is a monthly payment to all adults with no strings attached, similar to Social Security. Critics say the Green New Deal asks too much of the rich and upper-middle-class taxpayers who will have to pay for it, but taxing the rich is not what the resolution proposes. It says funding would primarily come from the federal government, “using a combination of the Federal Reserve, a new public bank or system of regional and specialized public banks,” among other vehicles.
Monday, December 24, 2018
Trump Derangement International / Politics / Mainstream Media
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Dirk Kurbjuweit, deputy editor-in-chief of Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine for the past 4 years, unwittingly put his foot a mile deep in his mouth this week when he reacted to a letter written by US Ambassador to Berlin Richard Grenell. His reaction presents perhaps the most perfect example of the downfall of news, journalism, the media in general, that we’ve seen so far. Most perfect among very stiff competition.
After Der Spiegel itself this week ‘outed’ its award-winning star reporter, Claas Relotius, as someone who had made up many of his lauded articles from scratch, Grenell suggested the magazine, and especially its editorial staff, shouldn’t think they can get away with putting all the blame on just this one guy. He tweeted:
Read full article... Read full article...We value policy criticism. We love a free press. But @Spiegel literally fabricated stories saying people (Americans) were racist & xenophobic. They made up events, details, & lies – and no editor checked the stories. Every real journalist should be outraged by this.
Sunday, December 23, 2018
President Trump's Trade Rubbish / Politics / Protectionism
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The U.S. trade war rages on. With each passing day, there is news about a flare up, primarily on the front where the United States and China are confronting each other. While these flare ups rattle the markets, they don’t seem to rattle President Xi or President Trump. Indeed, neither Xi nor Trump seem inclined to give ground. For his part, Trump has recently tasked Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative, to lead the U.S. in trade negotiations with China. And, Lightizer, having a long ultra-protectionist record, has a reputation for taking no prisoners in trade battles.
Thursday, December 20, 2018
FT Shows How British Establishment Will Ensure REMAIN Wins a Second EU Referendum / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Calls for a so called "Peoples Vote" are reaching a crescendo in the mainstream press, as grid locked chaos in the Westminister counts down to the BrExit deadline of 29th March 2019, that is resulting cabinet ministers downwards claiming that a Second EU Referendum is necessary so that the people can decide on the terms of exiting from the European Union, a deal or no deal exit, or even for the UK to REMAIN within the European Union.
Unfortunately, the whole "Peoples Vote" exercise is a means by which the Britain's establishment will ensure that REMAIN would WIN a second EU referendum by the way the referendum questions would be worded as illustrated by the Financial Times (FT) latest video titled "BrExit: how to hold a second referendum" :
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Wednesday, December 19, 2018
2018 Chaos, 2019 Mayhem / Politics / Social Issues
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It took me a while to decide which word(s) best define the past year and the next one, but I think this is pretty much it. 2018 was chaotic more than anything else, and that chaos will give rise to mayhem in 2019.
What I think is striking is that this is true across the board, in all walks of life so to speak. In finance, in politics, in energy markets, in ecological matters, and perhaps most of all in the ways all these topics are being covered by what once were trusted media.
I’m going to have to come back to all these topics separately, so it’s promising to be a very busy holiday season, but it’s also good to try and put them together in one place, if only to show how interconnected everything is. And how futile it is to look at the economy without seeing its connection to energy flows and ecosystems. And vice versa.
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Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Political Theater Goes into Overdrive as US Government Shutdown Looms / Politics / US Politics
By: MoneyMetals
The Democratic party will be moving back into the control room in the House of Representatives.
Congress may commemorate the return to split government with a partial shutdown. The feud over construction of a border wall looks like it will not be resolved in time. It could be the first of many political dramas in 2019.
The debate over funding for the wall is theater, make no mistake.
Sunday, December 16, 2018
With Weaker Climate Consensus, Expect Elevated Climate Change / Politics / Climate Change
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the UN climate conference concluded with the expected dissension, efforts to contain global climate change are weakening at the worst historical moment. Emerging and developing countries will pay much of the bill. As representatives from more than 100 countries debated climate change in the COP24 - the 24th UN climate change conference – held in Katowice, Poland, the outcome could only be divisive.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Politics and Economics in Times of Crisis / Politics / Social Issues
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The news still isn’t the news, and I’m getting afraid it never will be again, because not the news just simply sells so much better than plain old real events. Maria Butina suddenly popped back into the public eye, because she was either charged with something or confessed to it. And I’m thinking, excuse me, but that poor girl has been kept in isolation for how long now? And for what reason exactly?
I vividly remember thinking that when she first became ‘news’ for ‘infiltrating’ the NRA, for which there were plenty cute pictures taken, I remember thinking she would have been 22 or 23 years old when as a super- devious Russian redhead she allegedly penetrated the trillion dollar NRA, and the trillion dollar Republican Party, and the Trump campaign, which according to some people is now worth negative $1 trillion.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May, Britain's disastrous Prime Minister is likely counting down to her final hours in office after this morning failing to resign in response the triggering of a Vote of No Confidence in her leadership of the Conservative Party that follows her disastrous decision Monday to pull the Tuesday vote on her "EU Withdrawal Agreement" and then her catastrophic tour yesterday of Europe's capitals, literally begging EU Leaders for some scraps off their table. Most of whom looked on in amusement at the leader of a once mighty nation now groveling at their feet. Which was the straw that broke the camels back for many Tory MP's who wrote letters in their dozens to the Tory Party's 1920 back bench committee to triggered a vote of no confidence to take place between 6pm and 8pm today.
Monday, December 10, 2018
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May's government is now certain to lose the critical vote in the House of Commons on her "EU Withdrawal Act" at around 6pm on Tuesday the 11th of December 2018. Theresa May requires 320 MP's to vote for her deal to get it through the House of Commons, with the mainstream media consensus pointing towards Theresa May only being able to secure support from between 190 to 240 MP's, the wide range as a consequence of 50 undecided Tory MP's. Therefore the level of uncertainty presents a betting markets opportunity.
Sunday, December 09, 2018
Macron Heralds The End Of The European Union / Politics / European Union
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The concept of the EU might have worked, but still only might have, if a neverending economic boom could have been manufactured to guide it on its way. But there was never going to be such a boom. Or perhaps if the spoils that were available in boom times and bust had been spread out among nations rich and poor and citizens rich and poor a little more equally, that concept might still have carried the days.
Then again, its demise was obvious from well before the Union was ever signed into existence, in the philosophies, deliberations and meetings that paved its way in the era after a second world war in two score years fought largely on the European continent.
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
Choosing Who the Autonomous Car Should Kill / Politics / US Auto's
By: Rodney_Johnson
I don’t want to be President of the United States.I wouldn’t want to subject my family, or myself for that matter, to the intense scrutiny required of elections.
I wouldn’t want to deal with what looks like political ego mania on Capitol Hill.
But, most of all, I wouldn’t want the awful responsibility of sending our sons and daughters to their deaths in war.
Friday, December 07, 2018
Oxbridge - Cambridge and Oxford Universities Mainly for Wealthy and Foreign Students / Politics / Adult Education
By: N_Walayat
A damning report today brought home the fact that Britain's best Universities Cambridge and Oxford are only really for the very wealthy and foreign students. Which means the Universities are selecting from a very narrow gene pool of potential British talent, thus by virtue of which miss out on the best of from Britain's state schools and thus cannot produce the best of Britain.
Research by the Sutton Trust shows 8 leading private schools dominate Oxbridge admissions, as over a 3 year period they sent 1310 students to Oxbridge, more than the best applicants from 3000 state schools.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May's government is in a full blown crisis following MP's on Tuesday voting to find Government Ministers in contempt of Parliament for the first time ever, which within hours was followed by 2 further votes against he government in the countdown to next Tuesday's vote on her "EU Withdrawal Agreement" that the government is destined to lose which is triggering speculation that the Vote may be pulled at the last minute as a loss could trigger a collapse of the Government.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Showdown Looms on US Federal Spending, Border Wall / Politics / Government Spending
By: MoneyMetals
U.S. government agencies could run out of operating funds starting on midnight this Friday, December 7th.
At issue: President Donald Trump’s proposed border wall. He wants Congress to commit $5 billion for construction of a wall along portions of the U.S.-Mexico border.
The migrant caravan that recently attempted to crash the border near Tijuana has helped rally Republicans to support his request.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Subverting BREXIT - British People vs Parliament Risks Revolution / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May's government is now in a full blown crisis following MP's voting to find UK Government Ministers in contempt of Parliament for the first time ever, which is basically MP's sending a message to the Government that they are no longer acting in a democratic manner, instead are acting as a dictatorship! In contempt over the failure to publish the full legal advice given to the Government by the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox on the consequences of the "May Backstop BrExit Deal". This is an unprecedented event that put's Theresa May's government let alone her premiership teetering on the brink of collapse in the count down to the vote on her Brexit Deal on the 11th of December.