Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The new items published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, July 03, 2009
Japanese Yen: Resumption of the Bull Market ? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Frederic_Simons
Until the middle of 2007, the Japanese Yen was notoriously weak, as the selling of this low yielding currency was funding the purchase of higher yielding currencies, ranging from the British Pound to the Australian and New Zealand Dollar and many emerging market currencies. The so-called carry trade yielded investors the interest rate difference between what they paid for borrowing Yen, and what they earned for the investment in high-yield currencies, ie between 3 and 10 percent annually. And since the carry trade was mostly done at a high leverage, the carry trade became a fantastic cash-cow during the days of easy money and complacency.
Friday, July 03, 2009
Temporary Bounce in EUR/GBP Now Possible / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
A few weeks ago a long term 38.2% support in EUR/GBP was violated, adding weight to the medium term bearish argument that we have been favouring. However, without this view being threatened, there is a decent chance for a shorter term bounce, subject to a certain resistance yielding.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
EUR/USD for July 1 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair is currently in a 55 pip range. A sustained break above 1.4055 would indicate a target of 1.4110 and beyond that 1.4150.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 29, 2009
Green Shoots Recovery Forex Markets Fatigue & Intermarket Setup / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
There are more substantive fundamental and technical grounds that the recent pullback in equities and global bond yields will extend throughout Q3 to the benefit of the US dollar, which will likely stabilize, rather than wage a rally such as in H2 2008. Current explanations for a stronger dollar in H2 based on US recovery preceding rest-of-world are off the mark. The past 7 years have proven that each time US data emerged on the stronger side, global bourses pushed higher-at the expense of the greenback. While we back the notion for a stronger USD in Q3, our rationale is based on the following:
Friday, June 26, 2009
U.S. Stocks, Dollar Decline on China Calls for World Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: GoldCore
The People’s Bank of China report is very significant news for the international monetary system and for the gold market. Their call for a new global reserve currency or super sovereign currency will likely lead to further pressure on the dollar. Despite gold having risen and then fallen in value today, the news is another bullish factor supporting higher gold prices in the medium term.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Contraction in Economy Slowing Creates Bullishness for U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: BrewerFX
The Fed ended much of the uncertainty in the Forex markets today when it announced that its key lending rate would stay between 0 - .25%, and there would be no additional expansion of its balance sheet through the purchases of government assets and mortgages.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
EUR/CHF Springs to Life from Key 1.5000 Support / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
In recent weeks EUR/CHF price action has been lacklustre, an earlier bull signal looking to be premature. But underwater s/term bulls, having sailed close to the wind just above 1.5000 key support for a while now, have abruptly changed tack, with a course set for higher once more.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
What’s Wrong with the British Pound? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Macro Trader’s view:
After a solid rally away from the lows stretching over 3 months, much of June has been characterized by sideways trading. Cable seems to have has lost its way.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Forex Trading Cross Pairs Trend Analysis / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: INO
Last week I showed you how to analyze 13 forex cross-rates in less than 11 minutes. I thought it would be fun to go back and look at how this very quick analysis turned out.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Fiat Currency in Circulation, How Much Money is There? / Currencies / Money Supply
By: Mike_Hewitt
There are several different monetary aggregates used to measure a nation's money supply. These monetary aggregates can be thought of as forming a continuum from most liquid (money as a means of exchange) to the least liquid (money as a store of value).
Thursday, June 25, 2009
EUR/USD Bounces / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair fell over 200 pips yesterday but ultimately was stopped by the 1.3900 area and has since bounced higher. This keeps the bias upwards for today, but more news out of the US could make for a volatile day.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
EUR/USD - After the Surge / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
Yesterday saw a very strong move by the EURO, moving almost double its average (12) daily range. It also broke multiple short term resistance levels.With more news out of the US today, it could be another volatile day.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
How to Profit From the Global Currency Wars / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Money_Morning
Chris Weber writes: When rumors of the Swiss central bank again intervening to drive down the value of the Swiss franc hit the world’s currency trading desks late last week, it underscored just how hard global governments are fighting against the strong currencies that can derail exports while also blunting consumer demand at home.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
EUR/USD Choppy Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
Support is established at 1.3830 and is also present at 1.3820 through 1.3800. This likely means the sideways swings will continue. Although minor trends within the broader range can still occur.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2009
EUR/USD Continues to Range / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair is trading within a 120 pip range between 1.4000 and 1.3800 over the last couple trading days. This range has held in early trading. 1.3880 is initial support. A move below 1.3860 would confirm that break.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Why “BRIC” Posturing Against the U.S. Dollar Just Doesn’t Add Up / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen its growing debt burden.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Very Dangerous Time For Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
I don't want to get into the prediction game or even be the first one to say, "I told you so", but I believe the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) has a very high likelihood of embarking on a major down swing in the coming weeks.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Forex Pairs Analysis and Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: INO
We are going to be doing something a little bit different today as we analyze the forex markets. Examining the forex markets is nothing new, but we have never gone through 13 pairs of cross rates on the fly. I also show you a quick and effective way to analyze the dollar index at the same time.
Friday, June 19, 2009
USD/CHF Base to Complete Soon / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
With a recovery phase in the US Dollar now deemed to be in progress (see last week’s US Dollar Index Update) we now look at the technical levels on the USD/CHF chart, and what could give this pair a boost.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Protect Yourself From the Volatile U.S. Dollar with Currency ETFs / Currencies / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Money_and_Markets
Ron Rowland writes: You’ve seen the headlines: U.S. Dollar Plunges! U.S. Dollar Surges!
Why should you care? More to the point, why won’t the dollar just hold still?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 18, 2009
EUR and JPY / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The last three days have seen the EUR march higher. This has created a short term uptrend. Support is at 1.3910, with trend line support at 1.3860, and beyond that 1.3820, 1.3800.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 18, 2009
BRIC's Moving Towards a New Financial World Order / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Global_Research
Natalia Kovalenko writes: During their summits in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg on Tuesday, SCO and BRIC members urged the creation of a new global financial security system, reiterating their drive to act in concert to weather the economic meltdown.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
BRIC Countries Flying Kites For Independence from the American Financial System / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: John_Browne
This week, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) conspicuously gathered in Moscow for their first-ever economic summit. Although these countries are divided by culture and geography, they are united by healthy economic growth and their concern about unprecedented levels of U.S. debt and the safety of their respective reserves.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Euro Fails Above $1.40 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: LiveCharts
After a roughly two week stint flirting mostly above the $1.40 level, the Euro has fallen back to a current rate at $1.3834 (June 16). The Euro has steadily dropped from a peak over $1.43 on June 2nd. It has operated on a downward progression from the $1.40 level for the last three days.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
EUR/USD Pulls Off Lows / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair pull off the early lows set yesterday. The 1.3750 level held on the downside but the 1.3935 area also held on the upside.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Russian President Medvedev suggests the dollar is on its way out; Russian Finance minister Kudrin says there is no substitute for the dollar. The Chinese see a need to diversify out of the dollar; the Japanese say their trust in the dollar is unshakable. Let’s look at this puzzle and make some sense of it.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
EUR/USD Breaks Support / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair broke below the 1.3800 level. A sustained break of this level points to a further decline in the rate as indicated by the topping pattern. So far the pair has managed to stay above the 1.3750 level which is a rising trend line support area.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 15, 2009
EUR/USD Bigger Correction? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair failed to hold above the 1.4150 last week and is now heading towards the lower extent of the range. Support should be found at 1.3940, 1.3900 and beyond that 1.3800. A move beyond 1.3800 would point to a more complete correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 14, 2009
How long Can the U.S. Dollar Last as the World’s Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: The big question is how long can the dollar last as the world’s reserve currency? Needless to say, that is not an easy question to answer. We recently called the top on the dollar at 89.50 on the USDX. The USDX is six currencies versus the dollar on a weighted basis. More than a year ago the dollar hit a low on the USDX at 71.18. A phenomenal rally ensued from that level expedited by de-leveraging and the closing out positions within the carry trade. A good example of the carry trade was when a bank in NYC borrowed yen. At ½% interest, sold the yen for dollars and bought dollar denominated securities.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
US Dollar Index Embarking on Voyage of Recovery… / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
…at the least over the shorter term. Last week the US Dollar Index started to rebound from technical support, aided by an interesting ‘Fibonacci’ projection which we detail below. Our bullish view here underpins our thinking across a range of markets that we cover in the FX Trading Guide, where we have adopted some early, somewhat aggressive reverse stances.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
EUR/USD Forex Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The EUR rose in early trading and is currently testing the 1.4050 resistance level, which is a former support level.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Falling Stock Markets Still Key for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The intermarket relationship underpinning the US currency and global equities remains largely unhinged, with falling equities persisting as the longe saviour for the corroding US dollar. And so once again the falling US dollar got a fresh respite from a falling stock market. Earlier in the day, the dollar seemed to succumb to one of those typical selling waves after better than expected UK housing numbers, improving confidence figures in Australia and higher than expected Norwegian inflation -- all of which bolstered the rally of these currencies against the greenback. Such figures reduce the need for quantitative easing in these economies, which only add to a widening in their yield differential ahead of the US currency.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
EUR/USD Range Break Pending / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair is nestled in a congestion area of old support and resistance levels. The range is currently 1.4050-1.4100. Based on average daily movements we can expect at least 90-100+ pips of movement outside of this this range.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Will the British Pound Get Pounded? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: When financial markets were on the way down, risk aversion reigned and every investment that was deemed risky crashed. The U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasuries did well as global investors fled to safety.
But for the last three months this trade has been in retracement mode. And the further it has retraced, the more it has fueled optimism in the outlook for a recovery.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 05, 2009
USD/SGD Key Reversal Day Heralds Rebound / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Daily charts of the markets we follow in the FX TRADING GUIDE are littered with Key Reversal Days and Almost-Key Reversal Days from earlier this week. We’ll be looking at all of these in next week’s Guide, but here we have chosen USD/SGD as an example – rebound is on the cards.
Friday, June 05, 2009
Russian Ruble to be made from Palladium / Currencies / Russia
By: Pravda
Boris Gryzlov, the speaker of the Russian Parliament, the State Duma, said that the participants of the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg would discuss a possibility of making ruble coins from precious metals.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 04, 2009
The Plummeting U.S. Dollar Economic Prosperity Plan / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
It is becoming painfully obvious that the Fed, Treasury, and Administration's disastrous recovery plan hinges on the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Their specious strategy stems from the belief that a falling currency can re-ignite exports and spark a recovery in manufacturing while putting a floor in U.S. asset prices. But just as the President's initials indicate, the plan stinks of B.O.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 04, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally Ahead of Today's Interest Rates Decisions / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
EUR/USD
With news out of the US and the EURO zone today a larger than average range is expected (150 + pips).
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Bernanke's Math - Does It Add Up? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The current account deficit is down as we are less reliant on foreigners to finance our deficits; the government's deficit is increasingly covered by the domestic private sector as private sector borrowing is down. -- These were the approximate words of Fed Chairman Bernanke in testimony to the House Budget Committe. This statement is so troublesome, let's examine it a step at the time.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Strength Puts Euro Near Critical Support / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The darling commodity trade such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is getting hammered today, mostly because of dollar strength. Just when the Euro looked like it was about to rocket above key resistance at 144.00, the price structure reverses in a significant way.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
EUR/USD Continues to March, USD/JPY Swings Continue / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
A pair has just pulled off the highs in the early Tokyo session, but the trend is still up and the bias is still up.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Speculative Bets Against the U.S. Dollar Highest Since July 15 2008 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Anti-dollar sentiment is again running rampant. Please consider Bets against dollar highest since start of economic crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...Speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
EUR/USD Awaits Breakout, USD/JPY Flag Pattern / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The pair has been stuck in a range through early trading, but the EUR is showing early signs of weakness.A drop below the lows of 1.4100 would confirm a swing down and would target 1.4020 and beyond this 1.3980.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 01, 2009
Shorting Yen vs. U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My foreign exchange work on Dollar/Yen is screaming at me to short the yen against the greenback via the ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSE: YCS) as a reflection of what should be deteriorating fundamentals in Japan (commodity procurement as oil and other commodities climb, as well as continued sluggishness in global consumption which will retard Japanese exports...as well as rising U.S. interest rates vis-a-vis Japanese rates).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 01, 2009
China Forced to Support U.S. Dollar to Defend $2 trillion Currency Reserves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
China is uncomfortable about being the principal creditor of the United States. Asia’s largest nation became the hostage of the US economy in the 21st century. The reserves of the People’s Republic of China are based on dollar assets - $2 trillion. US Treasury Bonds make $700 billion of the amount. China is forced to continue crediting the budget deficit of the United States not to let these reserves go down in value.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 01, 2009
EUR/USD Continues Uptrend, USD/JPY Sideways Swings / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The EUR/USD has started higher once again after bouncing off of the 1.4100 level. Resistance is currently at 1.4160. A break above this level would signal a move to 1.4220-1.4240. Beyond this there is little resistance till 1.4350.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Panacea For a Mismanaged Nation is Inflation of the Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Michal_Matovcik
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” Ernest Hemingway
Saturday, May 30, 2009
US Dollar Hegemony Over China and Russia / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes:
The Chinese and Russians are the laughing stock of the US and European Illuminists at the G-20 meetings concerning talk about a new world reserve currency to supplant the dollar. With China's gold reserves of about a thousand tons and Russia's five hundred tons, they are like penny ante poker players trying to get in on a thousand dollar ante game. They need five to ten thousand tons of gold reserves just to be an average player in "The Big Game," much less a leading and influential player. The rest of their foreign exchange reserves are denominated in fiat currencies, which are all practically worthless except for the euro and Swiss franc.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Drags Dollar Lower Under Weight of Bond Issuance / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Talk of Fed Exit Strategy is Premature. Yesterdays 23-basis point jump in 10-year yields to 3.74% may have been helped by mortgage backed securities traders hedging, but the upward trend remains clearly intact. With Fed increasingly behind the curve in catching up with US Treasurys relentless bond issues, 10 year yields have now retraced over 50% of their decline from their 5.32% high of June 2007 to their record low of 2.03% in December.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar, the Worst Investment of All Time? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
One investment, more than any other, has proven to be a terrible storehouse of value for well over 80 years.
While some disasters unfold rapidly (Enron, subprime mortgages, etc.), this investment’s decline has occurred in slow motion, losing an average of 3.6% a year. Indeed, you can hardly find a period in the last 89 years in which this investment actually MADE money.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Treasury Bond Market Crash Threatens U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD rose $6 early Thursday to record the best AM Gold Fix in London so far this week, hitting $949.75 an ounce as world stock markets fell and US government bonds bounced from their worst sell-off since January.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Roll Over Accelerates into Mid 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
In 2008, as the global bear market gather momentum, investors were drawn to the fundamentally weak U.S. dollar as a 'safe haven'. However, as volatility slowly erodes from the equity markets in 2009 and the appetite for risk in commodities and stocks gradually returns, the flight-to-safety mentality for the $USD is also evaporating. In its place is a return to a more rational fundamental review of the American currency.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Forex Trading Briefs for EUR/USD and USD/JPY 27th May 09 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
EUR/USD
The pair has pushed below former lows at 1.3950. The daily low is 1.3933 and a break below this would signal a move to 1.3900. Short term trend line support is also just above this level currently. Failure to hold would provide a target of recent swing lows at 1.3850.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
China Seeks to Replace U.S. Dollar with Yuan as the Dominant Global Currency / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: China has taken yet another step to transform the yuan into the dominant global currency, a long-term initiative that could ultimately dethrone the dollar as the world’s top unit of exchange.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Fading U.S. Dollar Loses Steam Against Japanese Yen / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: LiveCharts
The dollar has become so weak again that it has begun to fade even against the lowly Yen. The greenback and the Japanese currency seem to be effectively fighting for the label of least desirable currency at the moment. One dollar is currently (May 26) netting 95.40 Yen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated, Still the Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: Many investors are concerned about the future path of the dollar … and with good reason.
The Treasury is increasing the money supply in amounts never seen before or even imagined … all in an effort to avert a meltdown and stimulate a path to recovery. And as expected, there are no shortages of opinions about the trillions of dollars being created out of thin air …
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Lack of a Credible Alternative Global Currency to the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Pravda
A crisis is not a good time for seeking alternatives to the US dollar. Most likely, the dreams about new regional currencies will be put aside. The countries, which originally supported those ideas, gradually change their minds. The United Arab Emirates refused to participate in the Arab currency union. The expansion of the euro zone is not likely to happen in the nearest future. The Russian ruble is no longer ambitious either.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 21, 2009
U.S. Dollar Slashed Due to Fed Quantitative Easing / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's serious case of dollar-damage was once again made courtesy of the nations central bank. The Feds purchase of $7.7 bln in 7 and 10-year treasuries in the morning, followed by purchases of $3.08 bln in Agency securities in the afternoon accelerated the dollar decline and the resulting rally in commodities --as was the case on March 18 when the Fed first announced purchases of long term treasuries. Today's dollar sell-off stood out from previous declines by the fact that EURUSD knifed through the key resistance of $1.3740 (failed 4 times this year) to $1.3830, and even sterling finally managed to break above its 200-day moving average vs USD--something that all majors currencies had achieved in previous weeks surging to a 7-month high of $1.5794.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
How to Become An INSTANT Billionaire! / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Investmentscore.com
To measure ones wealth, the "price" of ones assets is not very important but the "purchasing power" or "relative value" is very important. Understanding this difference may be one of the most important concepts an investor can learn. To become an "instant billionaire" simply measure the "price" of your investment portfolio in Zimbabwean Dollar's instead of your local currency.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
The Fiat Currencies Death March, Got Gold? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The past has condemned us. Only the future can save us- We live in extraordinary times. Poised between the past and the future, never has the present been so uncertain. But, when certainty comes, it will be in the form of a scythe and ducking will be the only option.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Austrailian Dollar (AUD) Trend Direction Analysis / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: INO
Today we are going down under to analyze the Australian dollar. Many traders look at the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD) as commodity plays. Both countries are rich in natural resources and that seems to be a key element to the recent moves in both of these currencies.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar Heading For a Mighty Crash? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
Each month, the US Treasury publishes its International Capital account, (TIC) which foreign currency traders and bond dealers use to gauge the flows of money from around the world, into and out-of the US-capital markets. The demand for a nation’s bonds and stocks, combined with international trade flows for goods and services, plus behind the scenes intervention by central banks, all act in concert to influence the foreign exchange market which handles $4-trillion per day.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar in Trouble? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
How we analyze the Dollar Index - According to the dollar index (DX), which is a basket of currencies that track the dollar, it would appear as though the dollar is indeed going to be coming under more pressure. The dollar index is much like an index for stocks except in this case it is for currencies.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
British Pound (GBP) Upside Trend Break Out Analysis / Currencies / British Pound
By: INO
Taking another look at the British pound.
On May 8, I produced a video which gave a detailed analysis of the British pound (GBP) versus the US dollar (USD). At that time I expected the British Pound to continue its gains against the US dollar. In today's video I will revisit GBP/USD cross to see just what has happened to this market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
China and Brazil Try to Flee From the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
Brazil's state visit to China has set the chins wagging. Will an agreement be struck to invoice their bilateral trade in their own currencies rather than the dollar? Brazilian President Lula had made some allusions to this last month around the G20 meeting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Russia Dumps the U.S. Dollar for Euro as Reserve Currency / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Pravda
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 17, 2009
The Incredible Shrinking Global Economies Bullish for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: Germany is the world’s largest exporter. And in the broadest global recession on record, demand for its exports has come to a virtual standstill.
As a result, Germany, the core of the Eurozone, is shrinking at a record pace. And Germany isn’t alone. Many of the world’s largest economies have rested on the export model.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar index, EURUSD and Commodities Playing Together / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Michal_Matovcik
Problems are on the both sides of the ocean but technical picture is giving us some new info about potential break of longterm trendline. When we put it in context of breaking the longterm trendline on dollar index, we can see building bearish setup for US dollar. First the EURUSD technical picture.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Fed Seeks U.S. Dollar Devaluation to Reflate the Economy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Commodities are rising, the dollar is falling and the trade deficit is growing. Everything bad is good again, thanks to the Feds.
All of the pernicious factors that brought us to the brink of financial Armageddon are now once again returning and are still—amazingly enough--being embraced as both normal and healthy for the long term viability of the U.S. economy. Factors such as a strengthening U.S. dollar, shrinking trade deficit, a surging savings rate and falling commodity prices were all being viewed as the bane of the U.S. economy. And now, unfortunately, what had been the budding re-emergence of economic sanity is being obliterated by a killing frost thanks to the Fed and the Administration.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Follow the Money… Out of the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Kieran Osborne writes: Recently, stock markets appear to have experienced an almost euphoric phase, seemingly shrugging off most negative news flow day after day. Whether or not you believe in the so-called “green shoots” of economic recovery, a significant economic rebound, or a continued decline in economic activity, one thing seems abundantly clear: investors have been becoming less risk averse. The most commonly followed “fear indicator”, the VIX index, has retracted (likewise, other commonly followed indicators such as the TED spread has tightened and OIS spreads have reverted to levels not seen since the Lehman Brothers collapse), three month T-bill yields have recently risen and equity markets around the world have rebounded from March lows.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Reflation Trade Continues, Euro Heading Higher / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The developing technical set-up in the Euro-$ could have extremely bullish
potential largely because the pattern since last October can be construed as
a double bottom (Oct-Mar) followed by an initial upmove from 1.2450 to
1.3735, followed by a pullback into the April 22 low that was contained
ABOVE the double bottom lows. And then, during the last two weeks, another
rally has emerged that is pushing up against key resistance at 1.3680-1.3735
- as the price structure climbs above its 50 and 20 DMA¹s ahead of its
upside breakout!
Sunday, May 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The US Dollar Index has been experiencing weakness over the course of the past few days and is challenging present support levels, which if broken, could see a dip to 82-83. Analysis today will illustrate various trends in the USD and what to expect over the course of the next few weeks.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
U.S. Dollar Turned Back at Yen 100 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The dollar seemed on the fast track to cruise past 100 yen and beyond recently. During the six week long stock market rally, the dollar surge to a high point of 101 yen on April 6th. However, as the Dow has flattened and held above 8,000 the last couple weeks, the dollar’s momentum against its Japanese counterpart has waned.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Gold and China's Global Currency Threat to the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
For years now we have been warning of the decline of the $ as the globe's reserve currency. The threat is not so much that the monetary policies of the U.S. are cheapening the worth of the $, but that these are pressing so many other nations to search for ways to avoid the US $ in international dealings. China has now taken a momentous, structurally adjusting step to change matters in their favor.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Chinese Global Currency Strategy Challenge to U.S. Dollar and Gold / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Jim_Willie_CB
In a series of maneuvers, Chinese officials have revealed their strategy implementation in a very broad set of steps. Beijing leaders plan to establish the yuan currency as a global reserve currency. The process will be made more complete after issuance of a large volume of Chinese Govt debt securities, soon in coming. The number of policy actions is impressive. While the USGovt is busy stepping backwards with FASB rules enabling false bank accounting, gearing up Treasury programs to direct colossal elite welfare / confiscation to failed banks responsible for the crisis, covering up Wall Street fraud and regulatory lapses and debt rating agency collusion, and ordering pork like the $9 billion high speed train from Disneyland to Las Vegas, the Chinese are making important meaningful critical strides.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar Setting up for a Decline Into End of Month / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD suffered a violent whipsaw today first rising to highs during early New York trade before reversing to make lows against some pairs and end mixed. Rising to highs against the GBP, low prints were hit early as stops and aggressive selling dropped the rate to a low print 0f 1.4395 before short-covering and aggressive buying lifted the pair back to the 1.4500 handle to hold around 1.4510/20 area most of the day.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar to Weaken Due to Underlying Fundemental Weakness / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD ends mixed today after reaching critical S/R numbers after the open and ahead of the London fix. The BOC announced a 25 BP cut in interest rates lifting the USD/CAD sharply higher as stops over the 1.2400 area fired off topping the rate at 1.2509 before cooler heads prevailed. The rate fell back as late buyers were disappointed finding sell-stops in-range bringing the rate back under the 1.2400 handle eventually making a new low on the day at 1.2324; traders now feel the rate has completed a retracement against the recent weakness and with an inverted hammer formation on the daily charts more losses are likely.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
U.S. Dollar Immediate Term Rally Setting Scene for Sell off Into End of the Week / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD ends the first day of the week on a high note making gains against the majors with the exception of the Yen; analysts note that the USD/JPY is holding below the monthly opening range suggesting a technical correction is finally in play.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Global Deflation and Currency Manipulation Boosts the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: This week there was plenty of data to digest from the financial markets and the overwhelming theme was — more of the same.
If you missed it, here’s a run-down …
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 17, 2009
Fed Using Currency Swaps to Boost the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Currency swaps are of reciprocal currency agreements (swap facilities) between central banks. The officially purpose of such agreements are explicitly of short term and are intended to finance short-term capital flows believed to be seasonal or temporary in nature. Swap agreements are also misused to facilitate large interventions in foreign exchange markets, which is what is occurring with the dollar today.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar Continues to Top / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD held minor gains against some pairs today but ended the day mixed as cross-spreaders took gains off the table and put the majors into near-term S/R; traders note that stops in range and US data today contributed to intraday volatility but by the end of the day the majors held key S/R putting the Greenback back on the defense through the end of the week.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar Doomed as Global Demand for Dollars Slows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Happy Tax Day! As you fork over money to the IRS, you might want to take a closer look at the U.S. dollar. It could very well be turning into a ticking time bomb inside your wallet.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Risk Aversion Returns as Stock Markets Fail at Resistance / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Global risk aversion gradually returns as equity indices struggle in passing the earnings test. Our oft-mentioned 860-865 target in the S&P500 denoting the +30% rally mark from the March low was tested without success, further highlighting the significance of the implications for the latest equity rally. Although the S&P500 breached above the 50 and 100-day moving averages, these moving averages stand halfway between the 200-day MA (989) and the March low (666). Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
U.S. Dollar Continues to Weaken / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The major pairs continued to advance during New York trade as technical traders pressed thin conditions to find reported resting stops in most pairs. Initially firming up at the start of Asia the Greenback gave back early gains as the day wore on with most traders complaining of thin conditions and patchy volumes.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2009
Fundamentals Still Point to U.S. Dollar Weakness / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The Easter holiday weekend continues for one more day as some Asian markets were closed overnight leaving the USD unchanged-to-lower from Thursday as traders focused mainly on the crosses into the start of New York this morning. Volumes were understandable light and traders note two-way action dominated by tech factors continued. Equities were higher overnight to start this week adding a bit to risk-acceptance putting the Greenback under slight pressure but the main focus remained the crosses with Yen rising against most of the major pairs; Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2009
China's Proposal for a Super-sovereign Global Reserve Currency System / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Global_Research
Proposal of the Governor of the People's Bank of China presented to the G20 Meetings - The outbreak of the current crisis and its spillover in the world have confronted us with a long-existing but still unanswered question,i.e., what kind of international reserve currency do we need to secure global financial stability and facilitate world economic growth, which was one of the purposes for establishing the IMF? There were various institutional arrangements in an attempt to find a solution, including the Silver Standard, the Gold Standard, the Gold Exchange Standard and the Bretton Woods system. The above question, however, as the ongoing financial crisis demonstrates, is far from being solved, and has become even more severe due to the inherent weaknesses of the current international monetary system.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Are the U.S. Dollar's Safehaven Days Numbered / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: It’s not hard to understand the relationship of the dollar with human emotions like greed and fear. And that relationship is rarely more visible than it is today …
When investors are willing to take on more risk, stocks, emerging market currencies and commodities all bounce. On the other hand, when fear is prevalent, the dollar soars, Treasuries take off, and gold starts sniffing towards $1,000 an ounce.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally Lacks Conviction / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD held gains today as risk-aversion in equities prompted dollar-buying pushing the majors into key S/R at the start of the day. Although the Greenback is higher across the board today volumes were lighter and traders noted quality buying of the majors into the lows. Confirmed sovereign and semi-official names were seen buying EURO and GBP on the dips holding those pairs off their early New York lows. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Money Printing Ensures Australian and Canadian Currencies Set to Rise / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Dudley_Baker
Listen, can you hear it?
Yes, it is the sound of printing presses going 24/7 around the world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
U.S. Dollar Correction Higher Significant Selling Opportunity / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued to correct higher trough today’s New York trade reaching the best levels of the day against the majors shortly after the London fix; despite the rise in the Greenback the majors held important S/R levels during the day and remains in two-way action into the close. Technical trade was the rule for the most part as the lack of economic news kept traders focused on near-time price levels with stops helping to drive most of the intraday action.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar Yen Secret Relationship Revealed / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: INO
I have to admit, I love trading Forex. It's one of the most exciting and most profitable markets in the world. In today's short educational trading video on the dollar/yen (usd/jpy), I explain step-by-step how to analyze the dollar and its relationship to the Yen. I will also show you exactly what I think is happening right now in this relationship. Watch the video and see specific target zones where I think this cross is headed in the future. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar More Downside Action Expected This Week / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is two-way to start New York after opening mixed in Asia overnight; follow-on selling of the Greenback pushed the majors to their best levels of the day in early Europe with the exception of the USD/JPY. USD/JPY continued to advance reaching a high print at 101.46, its best levels since October of last year. Traders note that the weekend launch of a ballistic missile by the North Koreans created light FTQ buying of the USD against some Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 06, 2009
The New Real Global Reserve Currency / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: David_Vaughn
Well! Well! Well! China is proposing getting rid of the US dollar to be replaced by a new global currency that would become the new international reserve currency. China wants to see stability in the currency mark ets and the US dollar is not providing this. Actually, China is very concerned about the new dollars being printed and their future impact on inflation. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 05, 2009
Carry Trade Over, But the Yen Still Goes Lower / Currencies / Yen Carry Trade
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: For the past eight years, the carry trade — where investors borrow money from a country with low interest rates and invest it in places that provide higher returns — became extremely popular. And since Japan kept interest rates below one percent, the yen became the funding currency of choice for carry trade investors. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Devaluation is Inevitable, Just Like 1934 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Vronsky writes: It is evident to all the US economic environment is an unmitigated disaster. In fact we seem to be hell bent for leather falling into another Great Depression (the recent Bear Market Rally in Wall Street notwithstanding). This begs the question: What can President Obama do to avert the excruciatingly sad events of the 1930s?
Here are the economic problems causing havoc today in the USA:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Aussie Dollars Latest Boost / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Before exploring the latest boost to the Aussie, let's first go over today's surprisingly smaller than expected 25-bp rate cut from the European Central Bank. The ECB is likely to use the next 4 weeks in elucidating its intention to keep the door open for further conventional easing (rate cuts) and starting non conventional easing (asset purchases and extending term lending) as early as the next meeting. Currency markets are no longer subscribing to the much punditized notion that slower/ further ECB rate cuts keep it behind the curve at the expense of the euro. The realities of the market remain shaped by the positive impact of rising risk appetite on EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD at the expense of JPY and USD. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 02, 2009
The G20's Hidden Agenda of Devaluing the U.S. Dollar to Inflate Asset Values / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'm buried monitoring the markets … scrutinizing them virtually 24/7 … checking every piece of news I can get my hands on.
I also have three Dollar Index charts on my trading screen: A monthly chart, a daily chart, and a 60-minute chart to check the short-term moves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 02, 2009
U.S. Dollar Expected to Weaken Following G20 Communique / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD ends mixed today after another volatile two-way session; some pairs extending their ranges during New York trade. Most action was ahead of the London fix as US fundamentals were released as well as overseas news reports from pre-G-20 meeting participants; traders note that volumes dropped significantly after the London fix exaggerating price moves into the end-of-day. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Currency Report, U.S. Dollar and Indian Rupee / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Pumrath_Forex
Summary: Performance of US dollar against G-7 currencies continues to remain key driver of currency future movement in India. March month ended with wild swing in global currencies largely due to events and policy actions by major economies. The rupee jumped against US dollar in the middle of month as a result of announcement by US to buy bonds but failed to sustain at higher level as strong demand from importers emerged. Rupee is more likely to consolidate at 50-52 range in near term.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
What Will be the Next World Reserve Currency? / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Joseph_Toronto
- What exactly is a “reserve currency”?
- Replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency?
- Why the dollar will remain the most important reserve currency.
- What are the Chinese really up to?
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar Supported by Risk Averse Global Capital Flows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Last week's big news: The Federal Reserve announced they'd “officially” take up quantitative easing to finance the massive stimulus spending.
The Fed's decision to buy long-term Treasuries, soak-up more mortgage debt and open up the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) for the sake of consumers and small business inspired optimism …
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally Due to Weak Equities Falters / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is holding gains in late New York as traders continue to digest weekend developments; focus is on the upcoming G-20 meeting which is expected to produce solid plans for addressing the developing global economic crisis but smart money is not anticipating anything concrete at this point. More interest is on how the ECB may move interest rates with a strong expectations of at least a 25 BP rate cut heavily factored in. In my view, any hint that the ECB will stand pat or make less than a 25 BP cut will likely fuel a short-covering rally although a case can be made for a “buy the rumor/sell the fact” rally anyway.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rallies on Flight to Quality as Fundamentals Continue to Weaken / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD firmed up overnight as follow-on selling found stops in the majors. Overnight news that Spain will offer its first bailout during the current financial crisis pushed EURO into stops under the 1.3200 area and below keeping the rate under pressure throughout the evening. Bids ahead of 1.3150 offered initial support but traders note more stops under the 1.3150 area are building. High prints in Asia at 1.3287 were offered by a US bank traders say. Adding weight are lower equities; markets reacting to news that the US government will not support the current plans by GM and Chrysler and may be looking for a bankruptcy. Traders note that investor confidence will likely take a hit on the news and expect further declines in equities during the day. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Stabilizes in April and Sell off in May / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Though the longer-term picture for the U.S. Dollar Index appears bleak, with a downside target of $0.80 to $0.81 by June, models suggest the short-term outlook indicates some upward pressure building in April. Resistance is set at $0.8670 during this expected advance. Monty Carlo simulation supports the models outlook with a 95% probability that the currency will trade outside of the $0.70 to $0.83 band over the next 100 days. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
China Zhou Xiaochuan: We Need An International Currency / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
China wants to divorce the dollar. Good move. The dollar is on the brink of considerable depreciation. Premier Wen Jiabao is concerned looming inflationary pressures will sharply decrease the value of American debt held in Chinese banks. In order to encourage create greater monetary stability, Zhou Xiaochuan wants to create an international currency unit that can be used in trade as well as a standard against which other currencies can be pegged.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
An International Reserve Super Currency? Bretton Woods the Third / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Oxbury_Research
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- China 's call for a new international reserve currency may signal its concern at the dollar's weakness and ambitions for a leadership role at next week's Group of 20 summit, economists said. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan yesterday urged the International Monetary Fund to create a “super-sovereign reserve currency.” The dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve said it would buy Treasuries and the U.S. government outlined plans to buy illiquid bank assets. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Expected to Extend Losses Ahead of Negative GDP Data / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
A violent day was had by all today as the USD whipsawed in big ranges before ending the day mixed. Comments by Treasury Secretary Geithner combined with better-than-expected US data combined to confuse traders in both directions but USD bears appear to prevail into the end of the New York session. Speaking on the possibility raised by the Chinese of a one-world economic currency were deflected by Geithner into a possibility of increasing SDR money through the IMF were misinterpreted on face-value throwing the USD into a big slide against the majors extending lows back under important intraday S/R; the Greenback recovering against some pairs but not others as the day wore on.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
U.S. Dollar Short-term Strength Evaporates / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
After a brief foray into positive territory the USD is back under threat heading toward the low end of the recent ranges in late New York. Traders note that today’s action has been mostly stop driven by small accounts attempting to run with momentum but getting caught both ways. Aggressive buyers of USD from the overnight session were rewarded by new lows in the majors into the London fix but large accounts were using the dip to add to working longs and the majors reversed back toward the mid-to-high end of their ranges today; USD/CAD making lows in the process. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
U.S. Dollar Imminent Collapse.. Again? - Update 5 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The fall in the U.S. Dollar in the wake of the "Quantitative Easing" headlines has brought the Dollar collapse proponents back out of hibernation. However the actual dollar trend has shown little if any deviation from the road map of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below original price chart which therefore at this point in time does not warrant an indepth update.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2009
Currency Market Mayhem Amdist Stocks Bear Market Short Squeeze Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Currency mayhem this week caused a rally in most commodities as the US dollar broke trend line support and headed lower in a sharp decline. Analysis today will clue into the expected trend of the US dollar over the coming weeks ahead. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar Short-term Bounce Before Next Leg Lower / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD opens New York mixed this morning, higher against Yen and lower against other pairs. Overnight equities were firmer lending some support to EURO and stocks are called higher to open New York suggesting better tolerance for risk after a quiet weekend. Overnight comments from ECB president Trichet were seen as positive for the EURO also but traders note the action so far has been largely technical two-way trade. High prints at 1.3737 again drew sellers with lows at 1.3611 attracting buyers on the dips. Russian names seen on the offer traders say suggesting a possible re-balancing of the Ruble basket. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2009
How China Could Use Currency as a Weapon / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: China's currency policy is pretty far down the list of priorities for the U.S. Treasury staff. But it could be the turning point in this economic crisis — and for the worse.
Pressures on China to join the free market global economy on an equal playing field have intensified over the years. That's because during the last few decades, the artificially weak yuan had given China a distinct and unfair trade advantage, which helped propel its economy to become the third largest in the world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2009
U.S. Fed Buying Treasuries Triggering Massive Exodus Out of U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
Is everybody happy? The US Fed today announced that they will be buying US Debt in huge amounts starting today and the result was a massive exodus out of the USD. Equities responded positively although more will need to be seen if investors view the progress as net-positive for equities near-term. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Economic Reflation Investing – Which Currencies Benefit? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Reflation refers to policy makers' attempts to “reflate” the economy, to prop up what many would consider a broken system. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke made it very clear in his March 15 interview on 60 Minutes that he will attempt to stem the tide of market forces: Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar to Weaken on FOMC Announcement / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued to consolidate today reaching highs against the majors in early New York but failing to advance into key bullish levels. The majors recovered after the London fix rising off lows and in some pairs flirting with highs into the close. Today’s PPI and Housing Data was benign helping to underpin the possibility that inflation is not a problem and housing is beginning to recover but more data will be needed according to most analysts. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
British Pound Short Squeeze Possible Towards £/$1.50 Target / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD ended the New York session lower but off early weakness as two-way technical trade dominated after US news this morning. A weaker NY Man. Index was offset by flat housing data today helping to keep a bid tone to equities lifting the major indices to key resistance during the day; USD traders sold the Greenback as risk-aversion mitigated a bit allowing the majors to hold moderate gains into the end of day.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar Weakens as Flight to Safety Lightens / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is mixed to open New York today after starting mildly better in Asia overnight; traders note initial disappointment from the G-20 meeting which announced nothing new and appeared to be simply a re-hash of the current economic situation created a brief push higher for the Greenback. After testing previous resistance levels across the board the USD began a slide through European trade and is weak at the start of New York with the exception of USD/JPY. The rate is still holding the 98.00 handle after testing the 98.50 area of reported supply with stops noted above but offers continue to hold the rate back into an inside-range day so far. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 12, 2009
U.S. Dollar Topping, Aggressive Traders Should Sell the Dollar / Currencies / Futures Trading
By: ForexPros
Volatility was the rule again today but USD action was not as pronounced as yesterday’s whipsaw and the USD ended mixed against the majors to finish New York today. Most of the majors ended after testing important S/R areas and finishing the other side suggesting that the USD is continuing to top around current levels. Ending near the highs after a pullback during the day was GBP and EURO. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Forex Markets High Short-term Volatility / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
It was a wild ride in the major pairs today as the USD fell sharply ahead of the New York open only to reverse hard and make highs in some pairs ahead of the close; traders note that participants were caught “wrong footed” after the New York open and stops from late longs in some pairs liquidated trades done expecting a higher close in the majors. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
U.S. Dollar Overwhelming Bullish Sentiment Signs of a Top / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is holding gains into the end of New York trading today after solid two-way action overnight put the Greenback on the offensive into this morning. Rising to new weekly highs against GBP and yearly highs against CAD; other major pairs remain range-bound and inside-range. Traders note that cross-spreaders for GBP pairs kept Sterling on the defense all day putting in a low print at 1.3741 before stabilizing back on the 1.3800 handle for most of the day. Investor confidence remains weak to start the week as equities remained under pressure and traders note some flight to quality buying of USD was seen but remind that the Greenback is over-bought in the near-term. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 09, 2009
British Pound Plunged Through Support Levels Towards Fresh Dollar Lows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD is higher this morning after a slow start on the defense in Asia, the majors making the best levels of the day ahead of European trade. The Greenback is making fresh highs against the majors in early New York as technical trade and cross spreaders pressure to the upside. Overnight equities markets were lower adding to the upside as well. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 07, 2009
Euro in Freefall as European Monetary Union Faces Collapse / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro — the single currency of 16 European nations. Having just celebrated its 10th birthday in a free-fall, the euro is being exposed for all of its structural weaknesses.
The euro is managed with a common monetary policy. But a fractured fiscal and political structure has left it without a full toolbox to fight hard times. And this chink in the armor is threatening to make the euro's life-span short.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 05, 2009
US Dollar Shines in a Depression as China buys Metals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
“De-leveraging” and “Risk Aversion” are the buzzwords cited by many currency analysts, to explain the puzzling strength of the US-dollar, which has climbed by more than 20% since last July, despite the widely held view, that top Wall Street banks are insolvent and only surviving on artificial life support, and with the flow of credit badly constrained, the US economy is spiraling towards a “Great Depression.” Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
U.S Dollar Short-term Strength, Long-term Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
When President Obama took over the reins of government just six weeks ago, he stood at a historic crossroads. His decision on which route to take will make a profound impact on the future of the American economy and its currency. He could have persuaded a frightened Congress to initiate a structural change that would transform the U.S. economy from its dependence on debt-fueled personal consumption back to a path of productive growth. Instead, he took the easy route: attempting to delay the pain with stimulus and inflation, rewarding his benefactors without truly addressing our structural deficits. Disappointing for a man who campaigned on ‘hope' and ‘change.'Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
U.S. Dollar Setting up for Massive Trend Reversal / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is ending today flat to weaker after whipsawing traders all day in both directions; speculation regarding US stimulus actions and upcoming fundamentals is providing both sides with fuel for their argument. After starting weaker in Asia the USD rallied into New York action today extending highs against most pairs by the London fix. Into the afternoon as equities also went two-way the Greenback retreated from highs in most pairs giving bulls a reason to lighten up. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Gains, When Will the Flight to Quality End? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD holds on to gains as lower equities and falling Gold prices pushed investors into flight-to-quality instruments lifting USD to better levels against most major pairs. The one exception is USD/JPY which has failed to extend gains for a second day; high prints overnight at 97.92 went unchallenged in New York as did lows at 96.90 but the rate spent most of the day under the 97.50 area making today an inside range day with a neutral close. Traders note that dips near the 97.00 handle were met with quality bids but the lack of upside follow-through suggests that the rate is topping and due for a deeper correction. Most analysts point out that the USD DX is at a three year high on lighter volume suggesting also that the USD is near a top near-term. Should the USD/JPY break into stops said to be resting between 96.50 and 96.80 area there could be a sharp break pulling all the USD pairs lower. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2009
The Canadian Currency Faces Deepening Damage Ahead / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Ashraf_Laidi
While the dollar and the yen continue to prove being the strongest currencies during falling equities, let's focus on the currency with the combination of past sell-off as well as prolonged downside ahead. The latest Canadian GDP report accentuates our recent notes highlighting the case against the Canadian dollar as the country produces deteriorating figures on growth, jobs and industrial production. Q4 GDP fell 3.4% annualized (first decline since 91) from +0.9% on Q3, while 2008 GDP rose 0.5% from 2.7% in 2007. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bears: Be Very Careful / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The rest of the world cannot yet decouple from the United States' economy.
Excessive deleveraging of U.S. dollar-based credit is the sure sign that investors have come to understand this fact. They've pulled in extreme amounts of capital in search of a safe place to stash their cash. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 27, 2009
Money Supply and the Purchasing Power of Fiat Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
1. Introduction - In this paper, we analyze the value of money. We consider both paper money and gold. We attempt to relate the supply of money (MS) and gold to their purchasing power (PP). We demonstrate the extent to which printing of money dilutes its value. As a store of value, the value of money is represented by its purchasing power. We compare the ability of paper money and gold to function as a long-term store of value. We conclude that gold is an excellent store of value, while paper money is not. We observe that excessive printing of paper money is the ultimate cause for the inability of paper money to function appropriately as a store of value. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Trading Forex: US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen (USDJPY) / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: INO
I have to start out by stating that "I love the forex markets." But what's this?
Here we are going to hell in a handbasket in the US, yet everybody wants to own dollars.
Go figure.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Yen Could Crash Following Collapsing Japanese Economy / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Historically speaking, the Japanese yen has proved to be a safe haven against global turmoil. Right now, however, Japan's economy is among the worst hit of all the global powers. It is ill prepared to weather the global storm and it's falling like a rock.
That's why, this time around, as Japan's economy falls away, I think there's a very good chance the yen could drop as well.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bullish Outlook Throughout 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
US Dollar Index - The daily chart of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with the upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands riding the index, suggestive that further upside should be expected. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. Based upon the %K curling back above the %D in #1, expect upside strength to continue into the foreseeable future. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 21, 2009
European Monetary System at Breaking Point / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
When others were fawning over the European Union and its committee creation of the euro, Milton Friedman made this prescient and brilliant comment: “It seems to me that Europe, especially with the addition of more countries, is becoming ever-more susceptible to any asymmetric shock. Sooner or later, when the global economy hits a real bump, Europe's internal contradictions will tear it apart.” Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
British Pound to Crash to New All Time Lows / Currencies / British Pound
By: FleetStreetInvest
Don't be fooled by recent mainstream press reports of a ‘pound rally'. What we're seeing here are short-lived bursts rather than a proper, sustained gain. The trend for the pound remains down. Why? Because UK interest rates and the economy are both heading south.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Stalls at Resistance / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued to climb overnight but stalled off the highs in New York showing some signs of topping again as the long-awaited government “stimulus” bill failed to encourage investors today. At this writing President Obama is signing into law a record spending bill that has serious flaws and serious short-sighted programs in my view which will lead to a breakdown in economic recovery and a protracted recession/depression. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
New Gulf currency 'Khaleeji' poised to be Gold backed to remove 'Riba' / Currencies / Gold & Silver 2009
By: Stefan_Pernar
Again, bad news about this week and even those of us who made all the right moves early on can not help but feel anxious about what seems to come next: act two of the global financial and thus economic meltdown . This is indeed not the time for a little ‘I-told-you-so' victory dance. Yes, gold as well as silver are storming to new heights . Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Euro Currency Fractures as European Bond Markets Diverge on Default Risks / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Dorsch
For almost a decade, yields on bonds issued by different Euro-zone governments moved close together. By joining the Euro-bloc currency regime, every member state could suddenly reap the benefits of “free-riding” in the Euro-zone bond market, or borrowing at almost the same interest rates as Germany , irrespective of whether the country's economic fundamentals justified the lower rate. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Still Bullish / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
My reluctance to embrace the rally in gold has been well documented . One of the reasons, I did not jump on the gold band wagon was the strength in the US Dollar Index. Since August, 2008, it has been my belief that the US Dollar was poised for a secular change in trend and that gold has only been in a range. Based upon this, it remains my belief that the US Dollar is a better place to invest. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Currencies 2009: Policies of INSOLVENCY, aka Falling Dominoes! / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Ty_Andros
In 2008, the currency markets offered some of the greatest opportunities of all markets. Every currency had substantial moves ‘up and down' and many times BOTH ways, as deleveraging and stampedes of panic swept through the markets at different times. 2009 will be no different, only now we are going to look for sharp differences in two in particular. Those that exist in REAL MONEY will skyrocket and pretenders to that moniker will decline regardless of the country that issues them. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2009
The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Hewitt
One of the chief mandates of the U.S. Federal Reserve is to manage the nation's monetary stock. This essay analyzes the historic growth of the American monetary stock (or aggregates) since 1960 and looks at some recent developments revealing a marked adjustment in policy. These changes are a direct response to the on-going worldwide financial crisis that escalated in September 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
U.S. Dollar Volatile Trend Lower into End of Week / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continues to trade mixed today after US data failed to inspire traders one way or the other. GBP fell to a new traded low of 1.4315 before reversing back to the 1.4370 area in lighter volumes; cross-spreaders continue to work the sell side of the rate into the New York close. Overnight UK data was also benign and remarks somewhat dovish but the rate remains firm on the 1.4300 handle ahead of more US data tomorrow. Traders expect more two-way action near-term so aggressive traders looking to buy the dip under the 1.4380 area remember to be nimble. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
U.S. Dollar Volatile as Traders Not Convinced by Geithner’s Bailout Plan / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
Extreme volatility and more two-way action was the rule today as the major pairs whipsawed between highs and lows several times creating havoc for traders across the board. Weaker equities pricing in response to Tres. Sec. Geithner’s plan to bail-out the banking sector suggests that USD bulls are not convinced that the plan will work. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Collapsing Fiat Currencies: (Zimbabwean) Dollar, Point of No Return / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: John_Lee
Last week, Zimbabwe slashed 12 zeros from its currency as hyperinflation continued to erode its value, the country's central bank announced in late January.
The government instituted price cuts to arrest inflation. As time went by, it became apparent the forced price cuts cause bare shelves in shops and many businesses closing .
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 09, 2009
Trading USD/JPY- U.S. Dollar Vs Japanese Yen / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: INO
We are finally seeing some life come back into the dollar/yen relationship.
I have to admit, I love trading Forex, it's one of the most exciting and most profitable markets in the world.
Thursday, February 05, 2009
Volatility Plagues Forex Markets Ahead of Interest Rate Decisions / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
Continued volatility plagued the majors the past 24 hours as the USD continued to consolidate gains earned overnight although signs of topping continue. Overnight news as well as US data this morning failed to extend US gains past early highs seen in New York after the release of ADP private payrolls estimates. Showing another large drop projecting a dip in NFP on Friday, ADP came in at -553K. Although a negative number it was seen as an improvement over December’s numbers; USD got a slight boost on the news but GBP and EURO reversed; Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
U.S. Dollar Falls Amidst High Volatility / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
High volatility was the rule today as the majors advanced sharply against the Greenback as mixed data and stops in thin conditions exaggerated moves. Despite poor earnings from US automakers equities were able to hold onto slight gains into the end of the day helping to hold both EURO and USD/JPY off their lows and in the case of EURO to trade above previous resistance in the 1.3030 area for a high print 1.3037 before trading a full handle lower mid-day. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
The History of Money: Peru and its Fiat Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
Peru is the nineteenth largest country in the world and is a diverse land, both in terms of people and geography. It is populated by over 29.2 million people (July 2008 estimate), largely descended from Spanish settlers, native Inca, and pre-Inca cultures. Peru has three national languages: Spanish, Aymara, and the native Quechua, reflecting the native Indian and Spanish roots that cultivated modern Peruvian society. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Increased Investor Risk Appetite Boosts Australian Dollar (AUD) / Currencies / Austrailia
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Aussie is the days best performing currency out of a group of 9 currencies due to market optimism resulting from the latest government stimulus package of A$42 billion and ahead of tonights (3:30 am GMT) widely expected 100-bp rate from the RBA. With a 100-bps cut fully priced in, the risks are in favour of further Aussie upside in the event of only a 75-bp cut. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Euro Impact of a Euro-zone Country Defaulting on its Debt / Currencies / Euro
By: Victoria_Marklew
This question has been triggered by the fact that the price of insurance against debt default by Euro-zone members Ireland, Greece, Italy, Spain, and even Belgium, has jumped in recent weeks; that yield spreads against German bunds have ballooned; and that the sovereign debt ratings of Greece, Portugal, and Spain have recently been downgraded. These developments do not reflect an increased risk of default by any Euro-zone member, but rather show that investors have finally woken up to the fact that not all Euro-zone sovereigns are equal. The global credit crunch has led to an overdue market re-evaluation of the Euro-zone members. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Trades Within Tight Trading Range / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
It is a mixed start for the USD this morning as the Chinese markets are back after the extended Lunar New Year celebrations; the Greenback is better against EURO, GBP, CHF and CAD but softer against JPY to start the month. Although trading was light to start Asia, technical follow-on buying from Friday saw the majors start losing ground steadily into early Europe; below-expectations UK CBI data helped pressure GBP into early lows around the 1.4230 area with traders saying a failure at the key support area of 1.4250 to extend losses. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Euro Doomed to Fail as Governments Pull in Opposite Directions / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for most investors. It is good to get a perspective from those outside of our own back yard. Note that when he says "our country" he is referring to Great Britain.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 31, 2009
British Pound Collapsing Under Weight of Bankrupt Banks Liabilities / Currencies / British Pound
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Great Britain's Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, is meddling in the Bank of England and U.K. Treasury, much the same way that our Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke have done. And now everything that Mr. Brown is struggling with underlines why his home currency has performed so poorly recently … and will continue to disappoint. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 29, 2009
U.S. Dollar Regroups After Dramatic Overnight Plunge / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
After dropping dramatically overnight and into early New York the USD has reversed to hold gains across the board against the majors. Most traders note that volumes dropped off significantly ahead of the FOMC rate announcement suggesting that most were sidelined ahead of the statement. Analysts are divided as to the exact meaning of the statement; some suggest that the Fed stands ready to do “whatever it takes” to resolve the economic crisis while others say the Fed appears a bit panicky in view of interest rates at near-zero unable to add positive stimulus so far. In my view, the issue still remains short-sighted at best and long-term solutions will be hard to enact with a financial community wanting a quick fix. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Marks Time Ahead of FOMC Interest Rate Meeting / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is continuing in two-way action as the majors continue to consolidate off their weekly lows; traders note conditions remain thin and the lack of US fundamentals are keeping some sidelined ahead of the FOMC rate announcement tomorrow. After early gains in the Greenback overnight better-than-expected overseas data helped to hold the GBPO and the EURO higher although both pairs looked for new lows in early New York but reversed losses to close better on the day as early intraday shorts covered back as the day wore on. Better US equities prices helped to support EURO as well keeping the rate off the lows into the close. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
U.S. and China Play Currency Manipulation Chicken Game / Currencies / Market Manipulation
By: Axel_Merk
“China is manipulating its currency,” proclaims incoming Treasury Secretary Geithner. Talking about “manipulation” is helpful only if one's intent is to impress a local and insult a foreign audience. More productive may be plain talk - the U.S. and China could issue a joint statement along the lines of: “China and the U.S. agree that both will act in their respective self-interest in setting exchange rate policy.” Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
U.S. Dollar Continues to Drift Lower Amidst Two Way Action / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD gave back overnight gains as the Greenback failed to follow through during New York trade; at the close the majors are all better on the day but off their highs suggesting lots of two-way action and a potential short-squeeze underway. US data was better-than-expected this morning as existing home sales showed a gain suggesting that the housing crisis might be ending but savvy traders note that it will take more than one month of gains to suggest the housing problem is mitigating. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
How Gold Links U.S. Treasuries and the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
US Dollar & Treasuries. The emergence of last week's unsual direct relation between the dollar and gold provided a valuable signal to the validity of the rally in the precious metal. It could also be explained by the rise in bond yields (fall in prices). Last week witnessed a rise in bond yields that was accompanied by a not-so smooth strengthening in the value of the dollar. Despite the dollar's leap to 23-year highs vs GBP, the currency made more modest gains vs the euro while nearing 14-year lows against the yen. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Under Pressure as Pairs Shorts Squeezed / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is mixed this morning after starting better in Asia; the Greenback is giving back gains across the board and opens new York better against CHF and JPY—lower against CAD and about flat against GBP and EURO. Overnight comments by BOE MPC member Blanchflower were seen as GBP-negative as he remarked “obviously rates are heading towards zero” and unemployment would rise;GBP low prints in Asia at 1.3547 were inside Fridays’ range and the rate is recovering to make highs in early New York at 1.3878 topping Friday’s highs. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Stalling as Commodities Bull Market Returns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Many investors that I have spoken to have moved away from the powerful but volatile commodities market after the cliff-dive drop that occurred in the second half of 2008. Other investors are waiting on the sidelines for the global economic expansion to develop which will bring inventory levels down and prices up. Yet, the underpinnings for the next upward leg of natural resource prices is already in play and leading indicators are starting to break to the upside.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Not Over Despite Lousy Fundementals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Prices of assets and securities lie very much on expectations for the future. Indeed, when optimism is present, it's only natural to expect:
- Confidence in the market place …
- Long-lasting spending sprees …
- And rising prices for durable goods and services.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
Sterling's Damage and Geithner's U.S. Dollar Policy / Currencies / British Pound
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Currency market participants are faced with increasingly diverse options amid the deepening erosion of risk appetite, persistent banking losses and deteriorating measures of corporate and household wealth. While yen-supportive strategies remain most prevalent amid the worsening risk-landscape, broad selling of the British pound and bearish stances in the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) has also proven rewarding. The US dollar continues to emerge as a reliable companion to the yen in strengthening by default against the European and commodity currencies. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
Euro and Gold on the Rise / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Incredible that the (cash) equity indices closed slightly positive on the
session on Friday after a very ugly overnight session.
Most glaring from my perspective was positive the action in gold and in the
euro.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Sterling Sinks as Britain Teeters on Brink of Bankruptcy / Currencies / British Pound
By: Mike_Shedlock
The British Pound has imploded on fears of bank nationalization and Prime Minister Gordon Brown's plan to give the Bank of England unprecedented powers to buy securities. This chart paints the not so pretty picture. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar Overbought, Expected to Trade Lower with High Volatility / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD suffered massive whipsaw today as stops on the upside got triggered forcing the majors into key support early only to rebound putting the USD mixed on the day holding gains only against the Swissy into the end of New York trade. Earlier reports of solid two-way action into the lows for GBP resulted in new monthly low at 1.3619 only to see a three big-figure rebound making for a near-hook reversal into the end of day as shorts got beaten back hard amid modest flows. Highs in Asia at 1.4025 remain unchallenged as of this writing but with a solid close for equities in positive territory follow-on buying can’t be ruled out. Traders note that most of the action was right around the London fix leaving the late shorts holding the bag. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Currency ETF Trends and a Flawed Monetary System / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Tim_Iacono
Surely, at some point in time, some group of wise men somewhere will finally get together and realize that, during an era of excessive speculation, a monetary order where half the world's money floats freely and a good portion of the rest is rigidly fixed to the U.S. dollar is not an optimal system. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
US Dollar Continues to Climb Higher on Obama Honeymoon / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued its climb against the majors today reaching the best levels of the day late against most pairs after suffering a setback earlier today. Weaker equities offered a bit of pressure as USD/JPY fell back through the 90.00 area late to make lows at 89.73; volumes remain light and traders note that the rate is due for a short-covering rally suggesting that a low-volume dip today may be the lows for the week. High prints overnight at 90.99 went unchallenged in New York trade. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update 4 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Prevailing bearishness continues against the U.S. Dollar amidst a near infinite reasons of why the Dollar is doomed. But as an active experienced trader, one thing you soon painfully learn is that the fundamentals don't count when it comes trend reversals, as by the time the reasons have become apparent the market has already moved by as much as 50% and even then there exists the continuing dilemma of the trend versus the fundamental views based on hard data. However as I have discussed several times with would be traders in that your trading the price not the indicator or data. The bottom line is that what the price says is that which only 'should' count.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
U.S. Dollar Attracts New President Obama HoneyMoon Euphoria Buying / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
After a three-day weekend that saw the USD advance against the majors on Monday, the Greenback is extending its rally against most major pairs again this morning; the big mover overnight is the GBP as the rate falls to a new multi-year low. Traders report thin conditions but lot’s of two-way action as Cable falls through the 1.4100 handle for a low print at 1.3912 in early New York. Starting overnight as GBP crosses remained under pressure the drop in Cable was pressured by Russian sales of GBP and EURO as the Russians attempt to support their currency. Traders estimate around 10B the last 24 hours was spent by the Russians most of it in GBP but some in EURO and USD. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
More Bank Bailouts to Come, So Keep Selling Sterling / Currencies / British Pound
By: MoneyWeek
Hmm. I'm not sure that Gordon Brown got the result he hoped for yesterday.
After the first Great British banking bail-out, Mr Brown thought he had saved the global banking system – the "world", no less. And plenty of pundits were happy to indulge his fantasies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bullish Despite Global Recession / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The U.S. has become the most significant consumer in the world when it comes to demanding finished goods and discretionary items. Now, however, U.S. consumers are holding on to their wallets a whole lot tighter. You can see that clearly in this week's announcement of December retail sales … Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Radioactive U.S. Dollar UDN ETF Protection / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Oxbury_Research
There is a rather interesting scientific experiment going on right now in the United States. The experiment involves the effect that intensive radiation has on the brains of rats. Who is conducting this experiment? Why Wall Street, of course!
With all of the highly leveraged, stupid bets blowing up in Wall Street's face, it has been the equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off right in the middle of Wall Street. Most people would use common sense and get as far away as possible from the nuclear blast.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar Strength Expected to Dissipate Towards End of the Week / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD ended the day fairly subdued after most of the day’s action centered around this morning’s release of US retail sales data; coming in weaker the news was seen as neutral to bearish for the Greenback but the USD continued to hold its own against the majors through the day’s action. Most pairs fell into new lows on the day after erasing gains seen in Asia to start the day making the potential upside for the USD look better into the close but the facts are tomorrow’s US data cannot possibly be seen as supportive suggesting that the USD rally has run out of upside momentum. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Boosts the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Friday was a big day for the market. The mother of all economic data reports created its usual commotion. That is, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls were released … and the numbers gave analysts plenty to talk about.
The U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December. And as bad as that looks, earlier rumors had the markets preparing for much larger losses. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, jumped more than had been expected — up to 7.2%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
British Pound Falls Sharply Across the Board / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued to grind higher finding light stops in thin volume as the Majors retreated during New York trade. As equities sold off after the release of better-than-expected Balance of Trade data this morning USD/JPY rose to 89.89 high print before dropping back slightly to hold back above the 89.00 handle for most of the day. High prints were only challenged once as the rate was unable to hold the 89.00 handle into the close suggesting that short-covering has not provided enough impetus to hold the rate firm off the 2008 lows; traders now expect the rate to challenge the 87.00 handle near-term before making for a new 2009 low. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
U.S. Dollar Continues Firmer Trend / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
After starting better this morning after a firmer overnight session the USD ends mixed as technical two-way action and thin conditions continue to dominate near-term. Traders note that some price action was “unexplainable” today, such as a fast 80 point rally shortly after the London fix in EURO which immediately fell back but the damage was done; the 1.3400 handle traded and that is important to the chart-watchers after the low prints at 1.3289 traded early in the day. Aggressive traders can buy EURO on any test of the lows under the 1.3300 area in my view. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Gold Rules Supreme as Fiat Currencies Competitive Devaluation Looms / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Ty_Andros
The Crack Up Boom, Part XIV - First I want to wish everybody a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
For those of you that prepare yourselves, the OPPORTUNITIES will be abundant and limitless; for those that don't it could be a very difficult period. “Volatility is OPPORTUNITY” and it is still set to skyrocket as G7 Public servants, financial and banking sectors and their crony capitalist campaign supporters try to escape INSOLVENCY and transfer it to the public. Ultimately they will fail, but the process may take several more years as they BELIEVE they have the ability to print money and create credit out of thin air endlessly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 10, 2009
British Pound Heading for a Record Low Against the Euro / Currencies / British Pound
By: Econgineers
In less than 18 months the British Pound has lost 30% of its value. What used to be a steady and constant trading range is now a steep downtrend. The fundamentals behind this price-action; negative macroeconomic outlook, increase in unemployment, drastic decrease in net lending, slowdown of general demand affecting retail and industrial activities, have decrease confidence in the UK’s economy, invariably impacting money flow even further.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Dollars Inevitable Demise, Doom and Gloom, Get it Straight! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Oxbury_Research
"There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets. Old habits die hard. The US dollar and US Treasury bills and bonds are still viewed as a safe haven by many. But learning takes place." -Telegraph 1/6/09 Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
U.S. Dollar Whipsaw, Large Buy Order Lifts British Pound / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD reversed again after the London fix today as the majors made highs and then retreated as the end of the New York session drew closer; Cable and EURO both retreated over a big figure after posting highs near technical resistance. High prints in GBP at 1.5284 came around the London fix as a very large buy order hit the market into the fix; traders note that thin conditions likely exacerbated the move and the highs were sold by short-term accounts as well. The rate fell back to the low 1.5100 handle and looks ready to close under the 1.5100 area as well; traders note a long selling wick on the daily chart suggesting that the technical objective for the short-term longs was reached as the rate scored 1.5250 area. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
U.S. Government Panic Could Herald Dollar Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
One of the few things more troubling for an economy than government intervention is government intervention driven by panic. Time and again, history has shown that when governments rush to engineer solutions to pressing problems, unintended difficulties arise. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
US Dollar Volatile Two Way Action as Sterling Strengthens / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD started the day on a strong note rising to early highs against most pairs in New York but has since falling back to make lows in some cases. Traders note that today’s US data was as expected and showed no real surprises suggesting that today’s action was driven by technical factors more so than sentiment. Most pairs met technical objectives for S/R during the past 24 hours or so lending some credibility to the argument. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The Fate of Paper Money, Fiat Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero." (Voltaire, 1694-1778)
The first well-documented widespread use of paper money was in China during the Tang (618-907 A.D.) dynasty around 800 A.D. [1] Paper money spread to the city of Tabriz, Persia in 1294 and to parts of India and Japan between 1319 to 1331. However, its use was very short-lived in these regions. In Persia, the merchants refused to recognize the new money, thus bringing trade to a standstill.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Intense U.S. Dollar Buying / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The fact that the Euro has weakened (dollar has strengthened) beneath the 1.3500-1.3450 area this morning and is confirmed by my daily RSI (momentum) gauge) indicates that more dollar buying power, and more Euro selling pressure, is directly ahead. The ETF for euro-dollar traders is the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE). The intense dollar buying will likely press the EUR/USD into the 1.3250-1.3150 target zone, which must contain the decline to avert a full-fledged retracement of the entire Nov-Dec EUR/USD advance from 1.2330 to 1.4720.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar Strong Technical Rally to Sell Into / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is better against most major pairs this morning as traders unwound EURO-Sterling and Yen pairs giving the Greenback a boost by default some desks report. Stops were driving trade as the USD crossed several important S/R levels overnight; most notably in EURO as the rate fell through stops at 1.3500, 1.3440, and 1.3390 for a low print at 1.3330. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
U.S. Dollar Strong Start to 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD is on the offense this morning for the most part as the first full day of post-holiday trading gets underway in New York. Overnight was a mixed bag for the Greenback as early weakness in index futures put a bit of downward pressure on the USD/JPY and mixed pressure on EURO and Cable; thin conditions were reported in Asia as a half-day holiday was seen in Japan. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Global Trade Deficits and Surpluses / Currencies / Global Economy
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
How will other currencies be affected should the dollar collapse due to its horrible fundamentals ? The answer to this question depends on a nation's reliance on the dollar to finance a balance of trade deficit. Macro factors for 2009
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Friday, January 02, 2009
Ten Major Threats Facing the U.S. Dollar in 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
1) Foreign central banks selling US assets Most of the nations which have been financing the US's massive current account deficits in recent years have either begun to sell their dollar reserves last year or are planning on selling them this year in order to support their currencies. These nations generally fall into three categories:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 27, 2008
The Deflation Driven U.S. Dollar Bull Market of 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I'm often hearing how much everyone seems to be anxious to put a lid on 2008 and get started over — refreshed. I can understand that. This has been a very challenging year for many investors.
But, some hidden treasures have also appeared in the markets amongst the mess we've become accustomed to …
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Why the U.S. Trade Deficit is Worsening and Dollar Implications / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Right up until the commodity bubble burst this summer, there was the ridiculous theory going around that the world was now "decoupled" and that European and emerging markets would somehow avoid being affected by the US slowdown. These decoupling theories disappeared as oil dropped like a rock, only to be replaced by an equally ridiculous idea: that the world's economic pain would be spread evenly. This is wrong. Although the entire world is going into a recession as a result of the credit crisis, some economies are better prepared than others to weather the storm. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
U.S. Dollar Buying Opportunity? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Traders have slashed the price of the U.S. dollar. And that's terrific news! Now you can get your hands on greenbacks far cheaper than you could only two weeks ago. If you are a regular reader of my Money and Markets columns , you know that my long-term theme is that the dollar will climb sharply through most, if not all, of 2009. And now's certainly not the time to deviate from those expectations. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
U.S. Dollar Falls off a Cliff / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Joe_Gelet
Recent move in the USD proved a good case study for a strategy EES has been working on called “Golden Grid”, an EA based on Fibonacci levels.
Unusual market conditions: USD falls off a cliff
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Friday, December 19, 2008
U.S. Dollar Plunges as Devaluation Policy Seeks to Export Deflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bernanke & Co. on Tuesday signaled to the financial markets that they were hell-bent on pursuing an “inflate or die” approach to rescuing the ailing US economy and fending off the forces of deflation. The Fed is now inflating at a level possibly not seen before by a developed nation since Weimar Germany. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Japan Announces Currency and Stock Market Intervention / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Mike_Shedlock
Countries are now playing a game of "Top This" to see who can do the dumbest things. Please consider the following: Japan plans to buy $227 billion in shares to boost market
Japan's government said Thursday it is submitting a bill to parliament allowing for the purchase of 20 trillion yen ($227 billion) in stock to help stabilize the Japanese stock market, Kyodo news reported. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
U.S. Dollar Panic Selling Following Rate Cut Abating / Currencies / Futures Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued to decline today despite good indications that near-term technical levels would hold surprising traders with the speed of the move. All the major pairs fell through key support levels for the second day after traders chose to sell the Greenback with both hands after yesterday’s larger than expected interest rate cut by the FOMC. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
The Great Crash of U.S. Dollar Begins Following Record Low Interest Rate / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD started a bit better overnight but began to fall off as traders trimmed long positions ahead of today’s economic news. This morning’s CPI and Housing data was mixed for traders as lower CPI was offset by weaker housing data; the majors began a steady climb into the FOMC rate announcement which of course was the big news of the day. In a surprise move, the FOMC voted unanimously to cut rates a larger than expected 75 BP putting the FF rate at .25% and announcing to the world that the USD is now the cheapest currency on the planet. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar Inverse Relationship? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Shaw
Are oil and the US Dollar inverse to each other? No. At least not always.
There are numerous articles out about “Dollar Up & Oil Down”, or “Dollar Down & Oil Up”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
U.S. Dollar Crashes Through Support Treasury Bonds to Follow / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Clive_Maund
Over the past several days the dollar has gone into a severe decline, and this drop does not look like a reaction within an ongoing uptrend, as was the case in September, for as we can see on the 6-month chart it follows the development of a Head-and-Shoulders top area, a distribution pattern that took nearly 2 months to form. It looks like the dollar has broken down from an important reversal pattern. We had correctly identified the Head-and-Shoulders top back when the dollar index was high in the Right Shoulder of the pattern, when a Dollar Special update was posted on the site on 5th December, warning of a probable imminent dollar breakdown. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Zero Interest Rate Bound Fed Breaks U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The Fed's shift towards a range of 0-0.25% in its fed funds target zero intensifies the yield assault to the dollar, leaving little chance for traders but to extend speculative and directional offers in the currency. The decision prompts the biggest 2-day rallly in EURUSD (4.8%) following last week's 5.1% jump. The dollar is unlikely to immediately descend into an uncontrollable decline as the easing campaigns of overseas central bankers and secular market volatility has yet to recapture its peak. But the longer term prospects ahead appear particularly ominous for the world's reserve currency once global economic stability starts to buildup and the demand/supply schedule of commodities further moves towards the price. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
U.S. Dollar Slides Ahead of FOMC Interest Rate Cut Meeting / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD remains under pressure to end Monday as several technical levels fail putting the majors on the offensive into tomorrows’ FOMC meeting. Analysts remain optimistic for a 50 BP cut in rates adding a bit of weight to current USD sentiment. At this point the USD remains the worlds’ number 2 low-yielding currency with only the Yen providing less. With year-end repatriation into higher-yielding currencies as traders square-books with only a few solid trading days to go into year-end the USD appears likely to suffer more losses this week. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2008
U.S. Dollar Topping Action Intensifies, Sell Dollars into Strength / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD opens the week on a softer note and remains under light pressure at the start of New York trade. Overnight action was subdued with most of the action contained in Yen cross spreads after the release of Japan’s Tankan report; traders note that the report was very soft and below forecasts prompting some analysts to expect the BOJ to cut interest rates at some point soon. With rates at .3% from the BOJ it is difficult to expect that a rate cut would help much as the bank has held effectively a zero-rate policy since the 1990’s; USD/JPY is lower at 90.74 with highs at 91.37 and lows at 90.47 making for an inside range day with lower two-way action. Traders report bid interest on the dip to 90.50 area likely from option defense and profit-taking from shorts. Additionally, EURO/JPY was firmer after the Tankan report which helped to support USD/JPY. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Euro Set to Fall Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: There's been a strong move against the U.S. dollar this week. But am I envious of the euro right now? Definitely not.
Technically the dollar is extremely overbought. So I expect a decent, near-term correction upward in the euro. However, according to my analysis, the euro is set to weaken substantially against the U.S. dollar over the next several months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2008
U.S. Dollar Set to Decline on Back of Bailouts Frenzy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The plethora of bank and corporate bailouts, stimulus plans and interest-rate cuts that the U.S. government has produced over the last three months can only lead to one outcome: The U.S. dollar has to decline.
During the crisis so far, the dollar in general, and U.S. Treasury bonds in particular, have been regarded as a “safe haven,” making the dollar strong and pushing long-term U.S. Treasury rates downward. In the New Year, however, this is likely to change – the weight of the added supply of dollars in circulation will be too great for the greenback to shrug off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2008
What the Sterling Crisis Means for You / Currencies / British Pound
By: MoneyWeek
If this isn't a sterling crisis, what is? Not content with plunging 25% against the dollar over the last six months, the pound is now fast heading for parity with the euro.
Our so-called government may think it can solve Britain 's economic problems via borrowing like crazy, and letting sterling collapse into the bargain.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
U.S. Dollar in Retreat as Corporate Failure Risks Soar on U.S. Auto's Bailout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
It may be premature to call the recent currency developments a paradigm shift, but it is worth shedding light on these changes as the news from Capitol Hill overlap with thin trading volumes. The current weakness of the US dollar is not only taking part against higher yielding counterparts such as the commodity currencies (which was usually assign of improved risk appetite), but also against the Japanese yen. Since the intensification of the market and economic weakness, the greenback would gain versus most major currencies with the exception of the yen during curtailed appetite, while losing ground versus its higher yielding counterparts and weighing on the yen at times of improved risk appetite. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
U.S. Dollar Continued Topping Action / Currencies / Futures Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD lost ground today after a mixed open this morning; traders note that volumes remained lighter but there was no doubt which side the orders were on. After a slightly higher open in Equities this morning the prospects for the USD tracked the rise and fall in Equities during the day; turning lower into mid-day stocks posted losses before recovering to trade back through the opening range. The majors tracked the rise and fall through the day ultimately to end better on the day but off the traded highs. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
British Pound Heading for Parity Against the Euro / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Sterling continued its Crash of 2008 by falling to a new all time low against the Euro by trading below 1.14, which is just another marker enroute towards parity to the Euro as investors and speculators continue to adjust to the deteriorating fundamentals of record low interest rates, economic stagflation and an exploding pubic sector debt burden that is likely to cripple the British economy for many years AFTER the recession of 2009. Already some Bureau De changes are offering an exchange rate to the Euro of just 1.04.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
U.S. Dollar Under Pressure / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
It was a disappointing day today for equities traders as the follow-on buying seen overnight failed to inspire traders in New York today; the DJIA shed over 200 points near the end of the day putting pressure on USD bears. Crude oil lost over $1.50/BBL as well putting conflicting fundamentals in play for equities traders. The net result for traders in the majors was solid two-way whipsaw over the course of New York trade; EURO rallying to post a nine-day high at 1.3002 looking very much like a test of the resting stops rumored to be at the 1.3030 area untouched before dropping back as equities gave back recent gains. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
U.S. Dollar Weakens Amidst Signs of Easing Credit Crisis / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
Higher equities on follow-on strength from overnight positive stock prices helped to lift the majors against the USD with most pairs setting new highs against the Greenback in late trade. GBP regained the 1.4900 handle but still off the Asian highs of 1.5051 in New York; traders note that spillover strength from EURO is helping to hold GBP firmer. Additionally, cross-spreaders continued to buy Sterling on the crosses also bringing the upside in focus. Today’s close over the 1.4940 area is the highest close in six days suggesting a near-term bottom may be forming in that rate. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
U.S. Dollar Two Way Action Following Interest Rate Cuts / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is lower to start New York after a quiet steady open in Asia overnight; traders note trading was subdued in early trade but appetite for the Yen crosses finally began to push the USD lower. Technical trade was the rule as no real unexpected news was released . Falling back from Friday’s highs the Greenback failed at several key technical support levels across all major pairs to start the week on the defensive. Equities were higher across the board with all major bourses in the black by several percent helping to support their respective currencies. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Thriving on Bearish Skeptics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I was doing some research earlier in the week, and I came across a blog I'd never heard of written by a guy I'd never heard of on a topic that we've all most certainly heard of … the U.S. dollar.
It was the same old story that's been beaten into the ground:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
GBP and EURO on Hold Pending Interest Rate Decisions / Currencies / Futures Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued in solid two-way action driven mostly by the changing fortunes of stocks the past 24 hours. Traders note that most of the volume in the major pairs was ahead of the London fix when equities prices were higher in New York; likely a late sell-off on the release of the Fed’s Beige Book contributed to the decline in stocks late in the day .Despite the heavy focus on equities today, lower Gold and Oil prices helped to help underpin the USD across the board but most pairs didn’t extend past early New York volatility this morning. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
U.S. Dollar Continues to Consolidate Ahead of Non Farm Payrolls / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
Despite a weaker open and a test of near-term S/R the USD has recovered to post highs against some pairs as intraday volatility continues. Equities faded into the middle of the day unable to hold early gains helping to push the majors to lower prices in two-way volatility. Crude giving up gains also was a factor for lower EURO pricing traders say but for the most part the majors are struggling to hold support against negative sentiment as traders continue to wait for signs that the financial crisis is mitigating. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
US Dollar Strength Likely to Stall Due to Dismal Fundamentals / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
Falling equities, weaker US economic data and fear of larger than expected rate cuts by the ECB and the ECB later this week kept the pressure on the majors today as GBP, EURO, Swissy and CAD gave back recent gains. Traders note stops were part of today’s trade but thin conditions remained a contributing factor likely making the moves a bit bigger than would normally be the case. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 01, 2008
US Dollar Strong on Seasonal Tendencies / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is mixed in early New York after trading two-way and technical during the holiday shortened week. Traders note that a weak start to the week in Gold and Crude Oil is helping to support the USD overnight. Traders note the USD is holding roughly within existing ranges but that some stops were noted as the EURO and GBP crossed last weeks’ opening range suggesting some technical trading continues in two-way action.Poor UK economic data pressured GBP in overnight action pushing the rate to a low print of 1.5010 in late European trade; traders note stops on a break of the 1.5120 area in size. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 01, 2008
Britain to Give up the Pound and Join the Euro? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It seems that every few weeks more panic measures are announced by the UK government as it is forced to take drastic action in the face of a collapsing financial system and economy slumping fast into recession. First came Septembers ban on short selling of banking stocks, followed by the £500 billion budget busting bank rescue in October, then the panic interest rate cuts, and most recently the emergency VAT cutting budget, now speculation is growing as discussions are leaked that Britain is moving towards joining the Euro as alluded to by the
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso whilst speaking on French TV and radio Sunday:Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Deleveraging Pushes Up the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
In view of the economic crisis facing the American and global markets, the recent strength of the U.S. dollar has confounded analysts. After all, the global economic problems essentially emanate from the United States and one would assume that the collapse of our economy would drag our currency down. That has not, as yet, transpired. The explanation can be found in a financial concept known as deleveraging.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
U.S. Dollar Continues to Sketch in a Significant Top / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued to slide today after the release of benign US Q3 GDP estimates; traders note that early USD strength was stop-driven on low volume suggesting that the Greenback is running out of committed buyers as we head into a holiday shortened week. Analysts remind that year-end book-squaring will likely add a bit of pressure to the USD and technical factors are not positive after the turnaround seen the past 72 hours or so. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
U.S. Fed's Quantitative Easing Extends Dollar Seasonal Reversals / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's latest liquidity drive from the Federal Reserve gives a fresh jolt to risk-seeking trades, extending my scenario of seasonal reversals in currency and commodity markets put forth last week , typical of the last 5-6 weeks of the calendar year, whereby markets reverse the flows prevailing in Sept and Oct. In this case, the lower yielding dollar and yen sustain fresh damage, reversing the gains posted in Oct and Sept. Such reversal is seen prolonged into mid December. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
U.S. Dollar Continues to Slide as Equities Rally / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD continued to slide into late afternoon trade pushing the majors to late highs as equities continued to climb posting solid gains and holding them into the close. Traders note that much of the day’s action was driven by stops as the majors climbed to new weekly highs in some pairs. Major support/resistance in several pairs helped to drive fresh USD selling as well and the speculation is high that the USD will face follow-on long-liquidation into Tuesday’s trade. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2008
U.S. Dollar Putting in a Top as Risk Aversion Diminishes / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ForexPros
The USD is under pressure this morning after starting a holiday-shortened week about flat in Asia. Tokyo had a holiday today leaving a lot of Asian players on the sidelines making for slow and thinner trade; traders report that stops are building on both sides of the market after last week’s neutral close and Friday’s USD retreat. Equities provided a bit of lift to the majors as follow-on buying of Asian markets and Europe holding firm ahead of US trade. DJOA futures are called to open higher on Wall street which is no doubt keeping the majors on the offensive to start the day. USD/JPY rallied higher with equities as expected but was unable to clear above the 96.00 handle with any conviction; high prints at 96.09 were offered to cap the rate before heading lower. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
U.S. Dollar Technical Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Casting aside fundamental arguments relative to the long-term viability of un-backed fiat currency, we turn our focus to a purely technical assessment of the past 8-years of price data for the US dollar index.
Technical Tools used in our assessment are the following:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Seasonal Currency Reversals and Implications of Zero Fed Interest Rates / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Although currencies ended up adopting their usual path of following the swings in risk appetite, it's worth explaining Wednesday's earlier spikes in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The moves were a result of broad dollar selling (also seen in a $25 rally jump in gold) on reports that Iran was pushing ahead with its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency found stated an increasing build up of enriched uranium stockpiles, which could be converted into weapons-grade material. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bullish Worlds Reserve Currency Dynamics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's times like these when I'm really glad that I haven't devoted myself to trading in the stock and commodities market. Sure there's money to be made, even on the downside.
However, the dynamics of the currency market are far more appealing to me … especially at a time like now when good companies and bad companies are tossed into the same rinse cycle and hung out to dry by fiscal and monetary policy decision-makers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2008
The G-20's Secret Credit Crash Debt Solution / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: If you think this weekend's G-20 meetings in Washington are only about designing short-term fixes to the financial system and regulatory reforms for banks, hedge funds, brokers, mortgage companies and investment banks … think again.
Behind the scenes, a far more fundamental fix is being discussed — the possible revaluation of gold and the birth of an entirely new monetary system.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2008
U.S. Dollar Rallies Due to Global Destruction of Fiat Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Andy_Sutton
While at first glance it might appear that this missive would be about global equity markets, such is not the case. However, it might as well be. With bad economic news rolling off the presses daily, equity markets have taken quite a tumble recently albeit in much quieter a fashion than in late September and early October. It is a pretty good bet that the combination of 516,000 first time unemployment claims this past week coupled with a 2.8% drop in retail sales in October won't help matters much. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The US Dollar Has Got To Go! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is clear that the United States has relied on a continuous cycle of debt growth to fuel its economy. The engine of the US economy has been the US consumer, and consumer debt had to expand at a rate that far outpaced negligible consumer income growth in order for the US economy to continue to “grow.”Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Icelands Currency Collapse Impact on Icelanders / Currencies / Financial Crash
By: David_Haas
I've been watching for an “on the street” report to bring to your attention what can happen to the citizens of a country whose currency is failing. As fate would have it, an exceptionally good story has finally shown up. We should all take this opportunity to learn from this chance insight into exactly what happens in the lives of people who must go through this rapid form of systemic financial break-down. Wherever you are around the world, you never know when this knowledge might come in handy in your own country.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Jump on Board the Global Capital Stampede to the Japanese Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Last year I dedicated several Money and Markets columns solely to my expectations for the Japanese yen carry trade to unwind. But since that trend took a breather in the middle of this year, I haven't been keeping you up to speed.
Let me get you caught up today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
How to Survive the Coming US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Now that the US election is over, we get to think about the Future. And, no matter how you look at it, the entire world, the West particularly, is in for tough sledding financially.
First, we will continue to battle an emerging economic slowdown. Then, later, we will be battling world currency instability – we already have signs of this now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
British Pound Weakens Ahead of Interest Rate Cut / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Sterling weakened from yesterdays level of £/$1.61 trading down to £/$1.59 ahead of today's anticipated rate cut which earlier analysis suggested could be as much as 1%. However the Pound is extremely oversold following its 25% crash from the high of £/$2.11 all the way to £/$1.53, this suggests that even a 1% cut would result in limited downside action until sterling has managed to work out its oversold state.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Toxic Emerging Economies Boost U.S. Dollar Safe-haven Demand / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: An advance report of third-quarter U.S. GDP showed a decline of 0.3%. That's awfully pathetic, right? But not quite as pathetic as the 0.5% that was anticipated …
Still, there's no denying that a GDP contraction of any amount is unappealing. And when it comes to many of the recent U.S. economic indicators, most everything's been unappealing … if not downright ugly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Bankrupt United States Will Reverse Recent Dollar Trend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
When inexplicable events perplexed our early forbears, village wise men concocted elaborate and colorful explanations to soothe the populace. Earthquakes, hailstorms, and solar eclipses were all ascribed to root causes that made sense