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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, February 18, 2019

The Corporate Debt Bubble Is Strikingly Similar to the Subprime Mortgage Bubble / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : “Housing prices in the US never go down.”

Just about everyone in America believed that in the mid-2000s.

A limited amount of buildable land and a growing population would keep housing demand strong.

So, house prices will continue to rise.

That was the thinking, anyway.

Even some of America’s brightest minds—like former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—jumped on the stable housing bandwagon.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 18, 2019

Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dan_Amerman

The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop increasing interest rates. The second pivot is to stop unwinding the Fed balance sheet.

While the interest rate pause is getting the most attention - the balance sheet pause could be the most important one for investors over the coming years.

As explored herein, the impact of pausing the unwinding the balance sheet is to create a new floor at about $4 trillion in Federal Reserve assets. And if the business cycle has not been repealed and there is another recession - the Fed fully intends to go back to quantitative easing, potentially creating more trillions of dollars to be used for market interventions, and to stack another round of balance sheet expansion right on top of the previous round.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

The $12 Trillion Federal Debt Bombshell / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?”

“Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection. I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counter-party signature. Gold, however, has always been far more valuable per ounce than silver. No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the credit worthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.” – Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 01, 2019

Fed Statement Commentary / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

While some may have been confused by Fed Chairman Powell's circular statements in yesterday's press conference, the takeaway should be abundantly clear: the period of Fed tightening, is over. The Fed will now hold steady on interest rates, and when they move again, they are more likely to lower rates than to raise them. And while the Fed's program of balance sheet reductions is technically still underway, Powell made it clear that the program is no longer on "automatic pilot" and that the $50 billion per month of bond sales will likely diminish, and ultimately, conclude much earlier than anyone had predicted just a few weeks ago.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Fed Fold Under Pressure, Telegraphs Looser Money Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

Two big questions have been front and center for Fed watchers in recent months...

The first is just how high rates could go before stimulus-addicted markets would falter. The second is whether our central bankers would bow to pressure once markets faltered and politicians began calling for the Fed to resume easy money policies.

Both questions now seem to have an answer.

They began to wonder in earnest if sky-high stock market valuations could be supported in an environment where Fed officials promised to keep rates moving even higher for the foreseeable future.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 28, 2019

Will 35th Recession Bring A Swift Return To Zero Percent Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

Many people view the seven years of zero percent interest rates experienced in the United States between 2008 and 2015 as being safely in the past, with normal times having returned.

As explored in this analysis, so long as the business cycle of expansions and recessions has not been repealed - then we are highly likely to see a swift return to a potentially protracted bout of zero percent interest rates with the next major downturn in the economy.

Indeed, even the staff of the Federal Reserve itself expects more frequent episodes of zero percent interest rates in the future, and for those episodes to be on a more protracted basis.

This just may change everything when it comes to the financial plans of retirement and other long term investors. Zero percent interest rates don't just eviscerate the ability of retirees to earn interest income, but they also fundamentally change stock, bond, housing and precious metals prices, moving them to places that are outside of the historical averages.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Fed Doves Take Flight (But We Are Not in Kansas Anymore) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_Tanashian

Wise guys trading Fed Funds futures see no more rate hikes in 2019, and a few even imagine a rate cut before year-end. Here are the projections for the next 3 meetings, showing an overwhelming view that the Fed will hold the current 225-250 target rate. Graphics: CME Group

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

The US Interest Rate Hawks Surrender / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

They say that there are no atheists in fox holes. Recently it has also become clear there are no monetary hawks in bear markets.

For much of the last decade many conservative market analysts have decried our reliance on monetary stimulus to prop up the economy and the stock market. But in the final months of 2018, in the face of the worst stock market declines in a decade, many of these supposedly pragmatic figures quickly abandoned their convictions. As the markets briefly crossed into bear territory, monetary hawks joined with the doves and President Trump in issuing a full-throated call for the Fed to cancel their planned rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. It appears as if the Fed got the message. Almost overnight, the tone from the Fed softened considerably, causing Wall Street to sound the "all clear."

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 18, 2019

Debt, Division, Dysfunction, and the March to National Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Never in our lifetimes has American politics been so marked by division and dysfunction.

The longest partial government shutdown in history occurred after the Democrat-controlled Congress wouldn’t compromise with President Trump on a border wall. The impasse is but one symptom of a deeper malady – one that threatens to wreak wider social and financial instability in the years ahead.

Put plainly, the pillars of the American system as we have known it are eroding.

No longer are we unified in support of the Constitution and a (more or less) free market economy. A growing faction within one party favors socialism and outright rejects foundational American principles such as free speech, gun rights, and limited government.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

It’s Not Polite, but I’m Pretty Pissed at the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

This essay is going to insult a bunch of smart, maybe even brilliant, people. It is not polite nor is it politically correct. I will try to be better. But right now, I am pretty pissed.

Here’s the thing.

No serious scientist would run a two-variable experiment. By that I mean, you run an experiment with one variable to see what happens.

If you have two variables and something happens—either good or bad—you don’t know which variable caused it.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 14, 2019

Has the Fed Already Gone Too Far? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

It is crucial for investors to understand that the Federal Reserve has not yet turned dovish and the Fed “Put” it not yet in place. Wall Street sometimes hears what it desperately needs, but that does not make it fact. While Jerome Powell has moved incrementally towards the dovish side of the ledger in the past few weeks, the Fed is still firmly in hawkish territory. If, however, Mr. Powell was actively reducing the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) and expanding the balance sheet, then we would have a dovish Fed. However, by just indicating that the FOMC might be close to finishing its rate hiking campaign, while still selling nearly $50 billion of bonds every month from its balance sheet, the Fed is still tightening monetary policy--and in a big way.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: EWI

Most economists and financial analysts believe that central banks set interest rates.

For more than two decades, Elliott Wave International has tracked the relationship between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and found that it's actually the other way around--the market leads, and the Fed follows.

The latest Federal Reserve rate decision on December 19 brought the usual breathless anticipation. Confusion reigned as the U.S. president as well as a former Fed board member publicly urged the U.S. central bank not to raise rates and many wondered if the Fed would "rescue" investors with a surprise decision to leave them unchanged. The Fed, however, did what it almost always does: it brought its rate in line with market rates.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 07, 2019

Half of Investment-Grade Bonds Are Just One Step from Junk Status / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Submissions

BY ROBERT ROSS : The S&P fell 10%. It was its worst December since 1931.

When the market drops, conventional investing wisdom says buy bonds. And this is what investors did.

Many have shifted money out of stocks into bonds. Much of that money has flowed into investment-grade corporate bonds.

These bonds are seen as some of the safest bonds investors can buy. The problem is that investment grade doesn’t mean what it used to.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Federal Reserve – Conspiracy Or Not? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

Conspiracy surrounding the Federal Reserve is a subject of much debate. A controversial topic, yes;  one which stirs the imagination of some, fires the suspicion of others, and provokes the declamation of not too few detractors. 

From G. Edward Griffin/The Creature From Jekyll Island…

“Back in 1910, Jekyll Island was completely privately owned by a small group of millionaires from New York. We’re talking about people such as J. P. Morgan, William Rockefeller and their associates. This was a social club and it was called “The Jekyll Island Club.”

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

5 Potential Impacts of The LIBOR Expiration In 2021 / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: Submissions

In 2021, one of the most important financial tools will disappear. The London Interbank Offer Rate, or LIBOR, is the average estimated interest rate for loans between major London banks. In the decades since this number was created, it became a major element in determining short-term interest rates internationally. The interest on roughly $350 trillion contracts and loans rely on this number. Yet the UK government has ordered that the LIBOR be phased out by 2021. As a financier making long term plans, this can seem like a crisis waiting to happen. There are many possibilities for a future without the LIBOR, and not all of them are bad. Here are potential impacts of the LIBOR expiration in 2021.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 23, 2018

The Fed Tightens the Monetary Noose / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The Fed defied President Trump’s irreverent Tweets. Indeed, the Fed did what it signaled it was going to do long before Trump pushed the “Tweet” button. Yes, the Fed—with all 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting “yes”—increased the federal funds interest rate by 25 basis points to the 2.25-2.50% range. And, as night follows day, the U.S. equity markets, currency markets, and precious metals markets took a hit.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 21, 2018

FOMC Update - Jerome ‘Dead Eye’ Powell / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Gary_Tanashian

One of the most disturbing scenes in the series Breaking Bad was when Todd shoots and kills a boy on a dirt bike after he witnessed Heisenberg, Jesse and Todd heist 900 gallons of methylamine. Jesse: “Todd, that Opie Dead Eyed piece of shit…”

That is similar to the feeling I got after the Fed hiked the funds rate as expected, but then declined to offer the stock market much relief for its ongoing temper tantrum.

What’s this? The Fed is not doing as the vast majority of market participants expect it to do? The Fed is not taking active measures to boost asset prices?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Gerald Celente:Central Banks Can’t Stop a 2019 Debt Disaster / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Coming up the one and only Gerald Celente joins me to talk about the upcoming trends for 2019 both geopolitically and economically. Gerald breaks down the chaos in Europe, tells us whether or not major protests are likely to break out here in the states and shares his outlook for the metals. Don’t miss a tremendous interview with Gerald Celente, publisher of the Trends Journal and top trends forecaster in the world, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, as Democrat leaders face off against President Donald Trump over the federal budget, bulls and bears in the gold and silver markets are facing off at key price levels.

The gold market attempted to rally above the $1,250 level this week but ran into some selling pressure. As of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,236 per ounce, off 1.0% for the week.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 15, 2018

Market Confusion About the Yield Curve Inversion / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Donald_W_Dony

Last week, the 5-year Treasury note fell below the 2-year note causing many market watchers to suggest the US Yield Curve is inverting. And as the Curve is a leading indicator to the stock market, the bears came out in force declaring the party has ended.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The more important yield comparison to watch is the 2-year Treasury note versus the 10-year note.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Trump vs the Fed: Who Wins? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Richard_Mills

Who controls the US economy? The “power of the purse” resides within the US Congress and the powers to set fiscal and monetary policy are delegated to the US Central Bank, otherwise known as the Federal Reserve.

While the success of US Presidents often depends on how well the economy does during their terms, in fact they have little direct influence on it. The President can guide the economy and put his stamp on unlimited pieces of legislation, but he must work with Congress and the Federal Reserve in order to execute his agenda.

To demonstrate just how powerless the President is over the economy, you need only look at Article II of the US Constitution which outlines the responsibilities of the Executive Branch:

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