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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Addicted to Debt - We Can’t Borrow from the Future Anymore / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

While everyone was talking about Brexit last month, the Bank for International Settlements released its 86th annual report.

Based in Basel, Switzerland, the BIS functions as a master hub for all the world’s central banks. It settles transactions among central banks and other international organizations. It doesn’t serve private individuals, businesses, or national governments.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 21, 2016

The Bank of Central Banks Reveals the Biggest Threat to the Global Financial System / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: John_Mauldin

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is in the unique position of serving global economic stability in general… and central banks in particular.

It functions as a master hub for all the world’s central banks. It settles transactions among central banks and other international organizations. It doesn’t serve private individuals, businesses, or national governments

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

TNX - A little Late But Still Expected / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

The high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model for early last week was delayed for three days by option expiration. Even if the high is seen today or tomorrow, that would still be within the margin of error for the model. The new high in the Dow probably means that a new Basic Advance began last February but we’ll wait and see what happens during the upcoming pullback before making that “official”.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 18, 2016

Don't Reform the Fed - FedExit! / Interest-Rates / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Opponents of a central bank should take advantage of the post-Brexit vote revival of secessionist sentiments to promote a secession from central banking, or "Fed-exit." Ending the Federal Reserve's monopoly on money is the key to restoring and maintaining our liberty and prosperity.

By manipulating the money supply to fix interest rates, the Federal Reserve engages in price fixing. After all, interest rates are nothing more than the price of money. Like all prices, they communicate information about economic conditions to market actors. Federal Reserve attempts to override the market rate of interest with a Fed-favored rate distort the price signals sent to businesses, investors, and consumers. The result of this distortion is a Fed-created boom, followed by a Fed-created bust.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Could the US Bond Market Bubble Finally Be Ready to Burst? / Interest-Rates / Bond Bubble

By: Harry_Dent

The great commodity bubble has been steadily bursting since mid-2008, but has taken a nosedive since early 2011. It's now down 70% overall, and 80%-plus in industrial commodities like iron ore.

Real estate has seen its first bubble burst and it clearly looks like a second one is on the way.

Stocks have now seen a third bubble and the largest burst is still just ahead… but, the question remains: when does it begin in this endless realm of QE and stimulus?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 11, 2016

ECB and BOJ Now Trapped in Endless Counterfeiting / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

The Fed was able to end its massive $3.7 trillion series of Quantitative Easing campaigns without the stock market and economy falling apart. The end of QE 3, in October of 2014, did cause temporary turmoil in the major averages; but all in all, it did not lead to a protracted market decline, nor did it immediately send the economy into a recession.

The consensus view then became that the Fed’s strategy of unprecedented interest rate and monetary manipulations was a huge success, and it would be able to slowly raise the Fed Funds rate with impunity.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 09, 2016

10-Year Treasury Bond At All-Time Low...Explains Stocks Bull Market... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jack_Steiman

We have been going nowhere for a couple of years. Within that process the emotions of all traders were tested over and over. Many times it appeared that the market was about to break down. Action was terrible on price and their oscillators, and that bad action was accompanied by poor economic reports. One after another, they came in poorly. Just when all hope seemed lost for the bulls they'd pull some magic trick, also known as fed-magic dust. A QE program here. A bail out there. Low rates forever everywhere kept the markets from breaking down. It was good to be the fed. You needed a bull to keep the economy going through those 401K reports. It didn't always work though because the market couldn't break out.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 09, 2016

Dead Pulses & Urgent Systemic Reform / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Several important factors work in a powerful manner to debilitate, to distort, and to wreck the global financial and economic system. It is long past the point of effective remedy. After the Lehman kill event, every conceivable wrong move and policy was made and implemented. The investment in the corrupt elements has been so profound in the last several years, as to make remedy impossible. The official policies have been so errant and heretical, as to make remedy impossible. The distortions with the broken elements have been so dedicated in service to the ruling banker class, as to make remedy impossible.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Europe In Chaos - Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Interest Rates In This World? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2016

By: John_Rubino

Two short months ago it was generally expected that US interest rates would rise for the balance of the year — a move made possible by steady economic growth and general global stability. Here’s a representative piece of reporting from early April:

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 04, 2016

Federal Reserve Quantifornication Revisited / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Richard_Mills

Californication is a brilliant 1999 song by the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Many of the lyrics reference the often insane, unrealistic, impossible dream images Hollywood sells to the world.

"Space may be the final frontier but it's made in a Hollywood basement."

Quantifornication is the term I coined for what the Federal Reserve is selling to the world - the unrealistic, insane fiat dream that the monetary policy employed by the Fed can fix the predicament we are in.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 01, 2016

UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The establishments operation fear had painted a relentless propaganda picture all year for a significant rise in UK interest rates following a Brexit outcome that was destined to send consumer borrowing rates soaring, which at the time I repeatedly warned was just NOT going to happen for the fundamental reason that BrExit induced uncertainty would make a rate hike LESS likely as the last thing the Bank of England would want to do is to add to market uncertainty i.e. the complete opposite to REMAIN propaganda. In fact I stated that a BrExit could even result in a rate CUT as the following excerpt illustrates:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

The Fed’s Money Printing Brings a Strange Outcome / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Rodney_Johnson

I keep reading that the U.S. debt is out of control. That we’re spiraling toward a certain financial death, evidenced by the fact that we now owe more than 100% of annual GDP.

According to a recent study by Rogoff and Reinhart, this is well beyond the threshold of where economies struggle. And we’re not alone. Several other countries have the same high level of debt outstanding, and Japan is at the top of the list, owing almost 250% of GDP. Clearly, we’re all going to die.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Here’s Why German Banks Consider Hoarding Billions of Euros in Vaults / Interest-Rates / War on Cash

By: John_Mauldin

One of Germany’s largest banks is seriously considering stockpiling cash. Sources within Commerzbank have told Reuters they are “examining the possibility” of hoarding billions of physical euros in secure vaults.

This is truly bizarre. Under normal conditions, holding cash is anathema to commercial bankers. They keep as little as possible on hand; they certainly don’t go out of their way to hold more.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Frank_Shostak

The majority of economists view deflation as a general decline in prices of goods and services. This is viewed as a major threat to the public’s well-being for deflation is seen as a major factor that plunges the economy into an economic depression. Most of them are of the view that central banks and governments’ worldwide must aggressively fight the possible emergence of deflation. This way of thinking stems from an erroneous view of what deflation is. As a result, it is overlooked that it is not deflation but rather monetary pumping which is the root of economic hardship.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 11, 2016

Final Top Of US Bond Bull Market Set For 3rd Qtr of 2016 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

The 30 Year US Treasury Bond market has been trending up since 1981. This massive bull market is set to reach its conclusion next quarter if my analysis is correct.

Let's analyse the technicals of both price and yield of the 30 Year US T-Bond. We'll begin with the longer term quarterly chart of price.

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