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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the reasons why my analysis of April 2019 was more subdued in terms of the prospects for US house prices than it would otherwise have been is because the yield curve was flirting with inversion, that I concluded that the Fed would not allow to take place and thus adopt whatever measures were necessary to PREVENT inversion that tends to foreshadow lower inflation and recessions.

The Fed succeeded in preventing a sustained inversion during 2019, with the yield curve massaged to hover around 0.2% that is until the pandemic broke and the Fed panicked and opened the monetary flood gates sending the yield curve soaring to currently stand at 1% as the bond market is discounting higher future inflation as the consequence of rampant money printing.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 07, 2021

TREASURY YIELDS SUGGEST A TOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Historically, whenever the Treasury Yields fall below zero, then recover back above zero, the US/Global markets reach some peak in price levels within 3 to 8+ months.  My research team and I believe the actions of the global markets may be setting up for a future peak in price levels sometime in next 6 months. We believe this will start when the Treasury Yields cross above the “Breakdown Threshold”.

expect A Continued Rally As Long As Yields Stay Below Certain Levels

In 1998, a very brief drop below zero in yields prompted a minor pullback in the markets before the bigger top setup in 2000.  This pullback in price aligned with what we are calling the “Breakdown Threshold” level on Yields near 1.20.  After the Yields crossed this Threshold, briefly, in 1999, they fell back below this level and the US stock market continued to rally toward an ultimate peak in 2000.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 28, 2021

US Interest Rate Threshold Keeps Dropping / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

Initial Jobless claims totaled 900,000 for the week ending January 16th, after shedding 965,000 in the week prior. These numbers are over four times greater than they were a year ago. I find this to be not only sad but also remarkable in that we are still losing close to one million jobs per week a year after the Wuhan virus first broke out. More signs of economic stress were found in the December Retail Sales report. Sales dropped 0.7% last month, and the data for November was revised down to show a decline of 1.4%, instead of the 1.1% previously reported. Figures such as these illustrate just how fragile the economy still is, which will automatically put upward pressure on the level of outstanding debt. And, gives the new Administration impetus to pass more and bigger fiscal stimulus packages. That's really bad news for any of us left that still care about debt and deficits.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 06, 2021

Fed Taper Nervous Breakdown / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

The next time the Fed reduces its bond purchase program the market reaction should be more like a nervous breakdown rather than just a tantrum.

First let’s review a bit of the historical histrionics surrounding the initial Taper Tantrum. Back in September 2012, the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program was running at the level of $85 billion per month. The asset purchase program consisted of both Mortgage-Backed Securities and Treasuries. Then, in December 2012, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke expanded his massive QE 3 scheme by making its duration unlimited. But by May 2013, the time had finally arrived to start discussing the tapering of its asset purchases. And in December of that year Tapering officially began; with QE ending by October 2014. Of course, the Fed would be back in the QE game six years later. But at the time, the overwhelming consensus thinking was that the 100-year economic storm had passed and we would never witness such extraordinary actions by our central bank ever again.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 26, 2020

Global Tipping Point: "Good" Debt Vs. "Bad" Debt (Which is Winning?) / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2020

By: EWI

All major U.S. economic depressions were "set off" by this single factor

Isn't all debt "bad"?

Well, in a word, no.

Broadly speaking, there are two types of debt. One of them actually adds value to the economy if handled in the right way, so you might call this a "good" form of debt. However, there's another type of debt (or credit) which hurts the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 21, 2020

Overstretch: The Long Shadow of Soaring US Debt  / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Steinbock

If the past year was dominated by the huge human costs of COVID-19, the next few years will be about its economic aftermath, including the alarming rise of US debt. What’s needed is multilateral cooperation - a new 'Grand Alliance.'

On Friday, Congressional leaders failed to secure a bipartisan deal on a $900 billion pandemic relief package. A government shutdown was avoided only with a 2-day extension.

A protracted shutdown would amplify the risks for pandemic escalation and economic crisis, amid the long-awaited vaccine rollout. Bipartisan tensions are compounded by the impending Georgia Senate runoff races in January that will determine control of the chamber in the Congress.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 07, 2020

What Do We Do with All This Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Before the coronavirus pandemic I expected the US would hit the debt wall in the late 2020s. Now, the debt is growing even faster and we will hit that wall a lot sooner.

What happens when we come to the place where we have to deal with all that debt?

Fortunately, my favorite central banker, Bill White -- who was the Bank for International Settlements' chief economist -- did a brilliant interview with my friend Mark Dittli in Switzerland in November that gives us some answers.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 23, 2020

Evolution of the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

The evolution of humankind supposedly goes something like this: From a void and through a series of serendipitous happenstances arose; galaxies, the Earthly Primordial ooze, Bacteria, Monkeys, and eventually homo sapiens (wise man). The evolution of the Fed is deserving of equal derision, but with a much worse outcome.

Back in 1913, the Federal Reserve Act gave birth to the Federal Reserve System. The law gave power to the central bank to become a lender of last resort to financial institutions. If a bank found itself in trouble, it could approach the discount window and exchange 100% guaranteed government debt for Fed credit at a deep discount. This process defined the majority of the Fed's role for decades to follow.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The cost of insuring against default has been declining – what this may suggest

You may recall hearing a lot about “credit default swaps” during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

As a reminder, a CDS is similar to an insurance contract, providing a bond investor with protection against a default.

In the past several months, the cost of that protection has fallen dramatically.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 13, 2020

Eyeing Upside in US Bonds TLT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Is it a coincidence that 10-Year YIELD climbed to 1.00% from 0.75% in the days following Pfizer's vaccine announcement (and perhaps in reaction to the apparent result of the Presidential Senate elections), and then hit a wall?

Not if we consider the big bad Fed lurking out there, scarfing up all Treasury supply even if the economic data appear to be stronger than expected.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 13, 2020

Global "Debt Mountain": Beware of This "New Peak" / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2020

By: EWI

Prepare now for a situation that is "building to an epic finale"

Most people going about their daily business probably never give a moment's thought to global debt.

But, in EWI's view, the topic deserves serious attention.

You only have to think back to the 2007-2009 subprime mortgage meltdown to know why. Of course, subprime mortgages are a form of debt, and when many of these loans turned sour, the entire global financial system teetered on the brink of collapse.

But, why were so many of these bad loans made in the first place? It boils down to one word: confidence ... confidence that the loans would be repaid, confidence that the stock market would continue to rally, confidence in the economy and confidence in the future, in general.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 09, 2020

Is Fed Chairman Powell the Real Election Winner? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

As President Donald Trump continues to insist that he will be the winner of the election after all the legitimate votes are counted and the illegitimate ones thrown out, at least one publication has declared a different winner. Not Joe Biden, but Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

The Wall Street periodical Barron’s argued Powell has become a more important figure for markets than whoever occupies the White House. 

Even as the presidential election outcome has been beset by uncertainty all week, Wall Street didn’t panic.  Quite the opposite.  Stocks surged on expectations for divided government and gridlock – and four more years of Fed stimulus.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

How to Stay Ahead of Price Turns in the U.S. Long Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

This method of analysis applies to any widely traded financial market

Back in August, the volatility index for Treasury debt was at an all-time low, indicating record commitment to the idea the markets would continue to calmly rise.

Indeed, here's a July 27 Bloomberg headline:

Bond Investors Are Getting Fresh Reasons to Stay Record Bullish

Bloomberg mentioned U.S.-China tensions as a reason that investors would seek a safe haven in bonds, hence, pushing prices higher.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

We have plenty of evidence that US debt will balloon to $50 trillion by 2030, maybe more. Many smart people conclude that, in the meantime, the federal debt isn’t a problem.

Looking at the numbers as a percent of GDP—and considering the CBO long-term forecasts out to 2050—Sam Rines, whom I greatly respect, writes this:

"In its latest round of projections, by far the most intriguing portion of the analysis related to the dynamics around the US federal debt load. The US debt load has increased dramatically due to the response to COVID, but the ability to service the US debt load is actually improving.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 08, 2020

5 Consequences of US Debt at $50 Trillion / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

With the US set to breach the $50 trillion mark in debt by 2030, here are five things we should start thinking about sooner rather than later.

1. Raising taxes will not solve the problem. Of course, it could help reduce the deficit some, but it would be more of a token. That is just the reality. From the Tax Foundation, here are the real numbers as of 2017.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 05, 2020

To US $50 Trillion Debt (and Beyond) / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

In my 2020 forecast letters, published in January as the pandemic was just gaining attention, I noted this:

"When we do have a recession, which again I point out is likely to be after the election (the only meaningful data point between now and the end of next year), the deficit will explode to over $2 trillion per year and, without meaningful reform, never look back. That puts US debt at $35 trillion+ by the end of 2029."

According to CBO, this deficit -- which I said optimistically, in hindsight, would be over $2 trillion in a recession year -- will be more like $3.3 trillion.

What does this do to the national debt? First, we have to define some terms.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Fractional-Reserve Banking Is The Elephant In The Room / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Kelsey_Williams

The expression “elephant in the room“…

“…an important or enormous topic, question, or controversial issue that is obvious or that everyone knows about but no one mentions or wants to discuss because it makes at least some of them uncomfortable or is personally, socially, or politically embarrassing, controversial, inflammatory, or dangerous. (source

A wordy definition, yes; but it is applicable to our topic of Fractional-Reserve Banking. After reading the rest of this article, you should be able to see just how important and enormous  Fractional-Reserve Banking is; as well as how dangerous.

Lets’s start with some history.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver investors who were hoping Wednesday’s FOMC meeting would be a catalyst for a major breakout move were largely disappointed.

The metals complex didn’t see an immediate boost from the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy meeting. Still, the central bank’s commitment to an accommodative monetary policy is set to play out not just over the course of a week, but of years to come.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would continue to hold its benchmark interest rate near zero. That came as no surprise.

However, the extent of the Fed’s commitment to avoid any rate hikes in the future raised the eyebrows of many veteran observers of monetary policy. Not only did members of the central banking cartel vow to keep rates down for the remainder of the year. They also signaled there would be no rate hikes in 2021. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 09, 2020

QE4EVER! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Virtually everything that cannot be easily printed is rocketing higher which includes GOLD! It's not hard to see why as a consequence of rampant money printing by governments across the world in the wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic economic depression. For instance the UK alone looks set to print about £550 billion this year most of which will be monetized by the Bank of England so that the government can pay the wages of about 1/3rd of Britains workforce for a good 6 months with likely many more economic stimulus measures to follow over the next 6 months towards fighting the Pandemics dire economic consequences.

Whilst the United States has printed $2.2 trillion of stimulus dollars to date with at least another $1.3 trillion to come, that's $3.5 trillion which dwarfs the 2008 financial crisis bailout of $720 billion. Funneling stimulus checks on an epic scale into the back pockets of every working age citizen. Printing money has REAL consequences which is REAL inflation hence what we have been witnessing in markets across the spectrum, and whist I have yet to take a peak at the housing markets, I would not be surprised if the UK housing market at least will start to experience a money printing inflationary boom over the coming year, this despite the fact that people have less disposable income to buy housing, but more on that in a future article.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 03, 2020

Understanding the Fed's True Mandate / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: The_Gold_Report

Michael Ballanger interprets the motives of the Federal Reserve and their impacts on the "haves" and "have nots" in America and beyond.

This week, the financial community around the globe was handed a "new approach" by the Federal Reserve Board of the United States that essentially flipped the middle finger at savers, senior citizens on limited pensions and proponents of sound money principles. Before I expand upon this outrage, let me expound upon the background of the current Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell.

Judging from the accolades and fawning praise showered upon this man (as the S&P and NASDAQ hit record levels fueled exclusively by Fed stimuli), one might think that he hails from the academic world, a scholar with vast experience in macroeconomic theory, or at least extensive dealings in the retail banking sector. His grandfatherly deportment portrays great studiousness and wise counsel as he does his very damnedest to convey that image with perennial gray suits and trademark purple ties. If one could take this carefully crafted persona and make a snap favorable assessment of the man who controls the retirement lifestyles of millions of global citizens, one would be making a fatal error.

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