Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond MarketThe analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
According to a recent study by Rogoff and Reinhart, this is well beyond the threshold of where economies struggle. And we’re not alone. Several other countries have the same high level of debt outstanding, and Japan is at the top of the list, owing almost 250% of GDP. Clearly, we’re all going to die.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Here’s Why German Banks Consider Hoarding Billions of Euros in Vaults / Interest-Rates / War on Cash
One of Germany’s largest banks is seriously considering stockpiling cash. Sources within Commerzbank have told Reuters they are “examining the possibility” of hoarding billions of physical euros in secure vaults.
This is truly bizarre. Under normal conditions, holding cash is anathema to commercial bankers. They keep as little as possible on hand; they certainly don’t go out of their way to hold more.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
The majority of economists view deflation as a general decline in prices of goods and services. This is viewed as a major threat to the public’s well-being for deflation is seen as a major factor that plunges the economy into an economic depression. Most of them are of the view that central banks and governments’ worldwide must aggressively fight the possible emergence of deflation. This way of thinking stems from an erroneous view of what deflation is. As a result, it is overlooked that it is not deflation but rather monetary pumping which is the root of economic hardship.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 11, 2016
The 30 Year US Treasury Bond market has been trending up since 1981. This massive bull market is set to reach its conclusion next quarter if my analysis is correct.
Let's analyse the technicals of both price and yield of the 30 Year US T-Bond. We'll begin with the longer term quarterly chart of price.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 10, 2016
hi it's Friday a June tenth 2016
malekko 64 here home of alternative economics and contrarian view
i'm going to cover the sovereign bond market today or government bond market
mainly because we're hearing more and more how trillions and trillions of
government bonds are yielding a negatively
right now they have negative yields and right now we're up to 10 trilling about
10 trillion and i think is good about to get big bigger than the number and it's
mainly in Europe and Japan and there's a story from two days ago in the aft
uh-huh and it says Japan's BTM you threatens to quit jgb primary dealers
club bank of tokyo-mitsubishi is the biggest bank in Japan they're
threatening to quit as a primary dealer of japanese government bonds primary
dealers basically they buy government bonds when the government issues it and
then they take it on their books and then they try to sell it on to their clients...
Friday, June 10, 2016
Not only has the 10-year, but also the 30-year Treasury bond rate fallen beneath its Triangle trendline and challenging new lows not seen since the February market lows. It, and TNX are due for a Master Cycle low in the next three weeks. There may be a brief bounce in the next 24 hours, but the decline should resume shortly after.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 08, 2016
Two months ago, there was a referendum in Holland about an association agreement between the EU and Ukraine. A relatively new Dutch law states that with an X amount of signatures a referendum can be ‘forced’ by anyone. Before, during and -especially- after the vote, its importance was -and is actively being- pooh-poohed by both the Dutch government and the EU. That in itself paints the issue better than anything else. Both the call and the subsequent support for the referendum stem from resistance against exactly that attitude.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 08, 2016
Pensions In The UK and EU Going Bankrupt – Slow Motion Detonation of Pensions Timebomb - Video / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Pensions in the UK, EU and internationally will go bankrupt as the long awaited ‘pensions time bomb’ detonates in slow motion.
Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the end of retirement which many Americans, Britons, Europeans and others will suffer as their pensions are decimated in the coming years due to zero percent interest rates and ultra loose monetary policies pursued for the benefit of banks and corporations.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 07, 2016
Stop me if you've heard this one before: A Fed official walks into a bar and says the economy is improving and rate hikes are appropriate. The patrons order another round to celebrate. Then disappointing data comes out, the high fives stop, and the Fed official ducks out the back...only to come back the next day saying the same thing. Anyone who pays even the smallest attention to the financial media has experienced versions of this joke dozens of times. Yet every time the gag gets underway, we raise our glasses and expect the punch line to be different. But it never is. Last week was just the latest re-telling.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 07, 2016
The Fed traditionally embarks on an interest rate tightening cycle when inflation has started to run hot. This decline in the purchasing power of the dollar will nearly always manifest itself in: above trend nominal GDP, rising long-term interest rates and a positively sloping yield curve. These prevailing conditions are all indications of a market that is battling inflation; and thus prompts the Fed to start playing catch up with the inflation curve.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 06, 2016
This past Friday, June 3rd, 2016, The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their most recent report regarding new employment data and nonfarm payroll employment which indicates that during May of 2016, it was the smallest increase seen in 28 months.
During May of 2016, there were 144,592,000 payroll jobs within the US, which was up by 1.6 percent, or equivalent to 2.3 million jobs, from May of 2015 (These are all not-seasonally-adjusted numbers).Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2016
Race to the Bottom Gaining Traction: Negative Interest Rates Amplify Currency Wars / Interest-Rates / Currency War
Ability is a poor man's wealth. M. Wren
If you had told individuals before 2009 that we would be living in a negative rate environment in the near future, most would have treated you like a lunatic that just escaped from Ward 12. Fast forward a few years and viola, bankers all over the world are embracing negative rates. China devalued the Yuan once again, adding further fuel to the already blazing fire. The Fed will have no option but to lower rates and then Jump onto the negative rate bandwagon. Don’t listen to the nonsense the Fed has been mouthing for months that all is well. We can already see the all is good slogan breaking down to “it’s not as good as we thought" slogan; this will eventually change to “oh my God it’s darn right ugly out there” and we need to lower rates to prevent a catastrophe slogan.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 01, 2016
The corporate bond market is a $6 trillion time bomb waiting to go off.
It took the US half a century to grow its corporate bond market to $3 trillion.
Thanks to the Fed implementing ZIRP and holding rates there for seven years, we’ve doubled the corporate bond market, adding another $3 trillion in corporate debt… since 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Bonds look like a bubble in search of a pin. What if global bonds are revalued lower to account for the following?
- Probability of repayment in a currency that will maintain its purchasing power for the lifetime of the bond.
- Probability of responsible fiscal management by the governments of the bond issuing countries.
- Probability of repayment without rolling over those bonds by creating EVEN MORE UNPAYABLE
- Actual positive yield.
Sunday, May 29, 2016
“Debt, Not The Economy, Reaches Escape Velocity” With Graham Mehl / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2016
One of the biggest buzz-terms of the falsetto, faux recovery has been ‘escape velocity’. If there are any NASA engineers left, they can correct me, but I believe the term was used in physics or perhaps rocket science to describe the velocity an object must reach to break the hold of the Earth’s gravity. And you think Economics has some formulas? I’d LOVE to see the one for the real escape velocity.
Getting back to the economic version of rocket science (don’t even tell me that isn’t funny), we have been hearing the term for the past several years. Ironically it started with the central banking crowdlthough they never quite told us what exactly the economy had to do to accelerate beyond the grasp of the ‘great recession’.Read full article... Read full article...