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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, July 21, 2014

The Municipal Bond World, / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Frank_Holmes

According to John Derrick
As we move into the second half of 2014, the Federal Reserve has continued to reduce its stimulus measures intended to boost the U.S. economy. Just last week we heard rumors from Fed officials that if the job market improves faster than expected, key interest rates may be increased sooner than expected.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 19, 2014

U.S. Bond Yield Carry Traders Need To Fade Upcoming Econ Events / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Fading Strong Employment Reports

The trend in the bond markets the last several months, and basically all of 2014 has been to buy bonds in the dead periods of econ reports, or the econ reports that would be detrimental to their non-growth, more dovish Fed case. And the last several weeks have been similar to the prior months, basically wait for the stellar job`s report blows yields up to 2.70% on the 10-Year and then buy bonds, pushing down yields in the three weeks after the Employment Report, with the goal of getting out before the next Employment Report.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 17, 2014

The Fed Needs to Raise U.S. Interest Rates Now! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EconMatters

ZIRP Policy & Asset Valuations

The conditions in so many asset classes are unsustainable from a price perspective once interest rates rise even under a “new normalized rate environment” and the longer rates stay at ZIRP status these unsustainable price levels continue to move in the wrong direction from a sustainability standpoint, i.e., the underlying fundamentals apart from ZIRP policy would not support said asset prices in a natural price discovery process.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 14, 2014

Pimco Steals AIG’s Bond Fund Insurance Playbook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Pimco is putting all their chips on the table, betting that low interest rates, along with lower and more stable global growth, will last for the next 3 to 5 years; an economic condition it is referring to as the "new neutral".

In fact, the company is so convinced of this "sure thing", it's placing a straight bet--selling insurance against price fluctuations on their $230bn flagship bond fund Pimco Total Return. That means it is offering investors price stability in the bond portfolio, in return for a premium.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 14, 2014

Fed Officials Trying to Warn Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

The Purpose of Complacency Talk

The Fed officials have been coming out in speeches the last couple of weeks with rhetoric about ‘complacency’ and other such code words for chasing risk ahead of what the Federal Reserve knows is going to be an abrupt change in monetary policy over the next six months.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 12, 2014

The Bond Rally is Not a Good Omen for the Stock Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

The Fed says the economy remains healthy enough that it will continue to taper back its QE stimulus at a rate of $10 billion a month, with plans to have it at zero by October.

Speculation now is on when it will begin the next step toward returning its monetary policy to normal, by beginning to raise interest rates from their current level near zero.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 12, 2014

U.S. Fed Inside Thoughts on Inflation and Raising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Bloomberg

In an interview on Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" with Mike McKee, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said the Fed is getting closer to its objectives for full employment and price stability. He said, "The data keeps telling us we ought to be raising rates" and that "If we wait too long, we could find ourselves raising rates faster and higher than we want to."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 10, 2014

QE Asset Bubbles Out of Gas / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

I've written exhaustively about the real purpose behind the Fed's quantitative easing strategy. So one more time for those who still don't get it; the primary goal of QE is to bolster banks' balance sheets through the process of re-inflating equity and real estate prices. If investors look back at the history of QE they will be able to clearly see what happens when the Fed steps on the monetary gas; and also what occurs once it takes the foot off the pedal.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

This Could End Up as the Biggest Ponzi Finance Scheme in History / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: The great economist Hyman Minsky coined the term "Ponzi finance" to describe the situation when borrowers use more borrowed money to pay their debts.

The U.S. government engages in Ponzi finance every day since it is incapable of repaying the more than $17 trillion it has borrowed.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Bond Market Prices in a Rising Rate Environment / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

JP Morgan Asset Management put out their Q3 2014 market outlook in which they discuss bond performance in a rising rate market. You should be aware of the key points they make.

In this table, JPM explains how a 1% interest rate change would impact each of several types of bonds:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Bombs er Bonds, Debacle at Our Doorstep! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ty_Andros

The breathtaking rush into the perceived safety and stability of the Bomb er Bond markets which began at the depths of the 2008 Global financial crisis are in blow off mode. A recent Bank of international settlements annual report has been ignored due to its message of CAUTION. The main stream media routinely blacks out these messages and have done so this time. Frenzied reach for yields are occurring throughout the world.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Rising Interest Rates... Falling Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TNX took off like a bottle rocket for a second day, overcoming its 50-day Moving Average at 25.87 and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 25.92. It should complete Minor Wave 1 of (3) near the hourly Cycle Top at 26.73.

This is Primary Cycle action and it may not be over until July 25 to July 29.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Planning for Future Interest Rate Hikes: What Can History Tell Us that the Fed Won’t? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: F_F_Wiley

It stands to reason that when the Fed eventually lifts interest rates, we’ll see the usual effects. After a sustained rise in rates, you can safely bet on:

  1. Fixed investment and business earnings dropping sharply
  2. GDP growth following investment and earnings lower
  3. Many people losing their jobs
  4. Risky assets performing poorly
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Debt Makes You Dumb - American's Borrowing Just To Get By / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Rubino

As incomes stagnate and prices rise, a growing number of Americans face a tough choice: either descend a couple of rungs on the lifestyle ladder or borrow to keep it together. Many are apparently choosing door number two. From MarketWatch:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Lowest Interest Rates in 500 Years, Oil Shortages in 10 Years / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We all know that interest rates are at an ultra low level, whether it’s the rate on our savings accounts, our mortgages (though those are quite a bit higher, quelle surprise), central bank rates or yields on government bonds. All this, plus a watershed of global QEs, have led to stock exchanges at highs that have nothing at all to do anymore with the performance of the real economies they’re supposed to represent – and historically did.

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