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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 06, 2016

UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Six months ago Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney in 'forward guidance' at the time gave his intentions to start to raise UK interest rates early 2016, that in the run up to the Fed December rate hike had galvanised many to expect a similar trailing response from the Bank of England to gradually follow the Fed towards normalisation of UK interest rates towards a target of 2.5% over 3 years i.e. by Mid 2018.

"Short-term interest rates have averaged around 4.5% since around the Bank's inception three centuries ago, the same average as during the pre-crisis period when inflation was at target...

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 05, 2016

End of the Fed: It Can’t Do Any of the Things It’s Supposed to Do / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Jeff_Berwick

[The following is by TDV’s Senior Analyst, Ed Bugos]

Janet Yellen has been in the news with her often-stated determination to create price inflation.

Why Fed officials are so scared to death of the deflation we all look for at the shopping mall each weekend is anybody’s guess. Ours is that it keeps the crony banking system and its inflated bureaucracy afloat – on a sea of green, like in a yellow submarine.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

The Fed Is Not Hiking Rates: Risk Assets To Perform / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bob_Kirtley

The landscape of global monetary policy is changing. In late 2015 we had the Fed hiking, signalling more to come, the ECB holding back on fresh QE and even the BOJ, which has engaged in more easing than any other central bank in history, was sitting on its hands.

That tune has changed.

The BoJ moved to negative rates this week. The Fed didn’t hike and signalled that they aren’t going to hike in the short term. The ECB is making noises about expanding its QE programs. In this article we explore direction of monetary policy going forward and its implications for financial markets.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Since we covered the many different markets in detail last week I would like to focus back in on the US dollar and the TLT looking for clues for the big picture direction. The huge daily swings, in say the INDU last week, makes it very hard to keep and hold a short or long position unless you're perfect on your entry point. In a bull market it's two steps forward and one step backward and in a bear market it's two steps down and one step up. If an entry point in a bear market is not made in the first part of the two steps down sequence you'll find your self behind at some point in the trade if the entry point was made in step two. This is one reason why it's so important to know the direction of the big trend. Until something changes I believe the US stock markets are now in a bear market. There are a lot of things that can change that outlook but for today that's what the charts are suggesting.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

BOJ Negative Interest Rates Central Banking Crime Syndicate's War on Cash for Triggering Panic Consumption / Interest-Rates / War on Cash

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst most market commentators were fixated on the prospects for further Fed tightening, the so called unwinding of easy money quantitative easing in the United States. The Japanese arm of the central banking crime syndicate took the markets by storm Friday by effectively decreeing that inflation is just too low for the systematic stealth theft of bank deposits to continue so now it's time to ramp things up a notch with the next step which is for NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. The FIRST instance of which will be that an interest rate of -0.1% will be applied to bank deposits (excess reserves) with the central bank, again this is just the FIRST instance with MORE or rather WORSE to follow which sends a discouraging message to all against holding Yen deposits, triggering an immediate drop of over 2% in the value of the Yen.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Lacy Hunt: Inflation and 10-Year US Treasury Yields Headed Lower / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gordon_T_Long

Dr. Lacy Hunt joins FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long in an in-depth discussion on the current debt dilemma and the decisions of the Federal Reserve. Dr. Lacy H. Hunt, an internationally known economist, is Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company, a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others. He is the author of two books, and numerous articles in leading magazines, periodicals and scholarly journals. Included among the publishers of his articles are. Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, the Journal of Finance, the Financial Analysts Journal and the Journal of Portfolio Management.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 29, 2016

Seven Years of Monetary Quackery; Can the Fed Admit it Got it Wrong? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Mike_Whitney

America’s richest investors are betting trillions of dollars that the US economy will stay lousy for years to come.

Who are these wealthy investors?

Bondholders. And their views on the state of the economy are reflected in the yields on long-term US Treasuries. At present, the yields on long-term debt are very low which means that investors think the economy will continue to underperform while inflation remains in check.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 29, 2016

Japan Just Lit the Fuse on a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

Last night the Bank of Japan implemented Negative Interest Rate Policy, or NIRP.

It is the second Central Bank to do so. The European Central Bank or ECB first went to NIRP in June 2014.

Thus, between Japan and Europe, over 20% of the world’s GDP is being managed by a Central Bank with NIRP.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 29, 2016

Janet Yellen "Peddling Fiction" on a Worsening Economy... Doesn’t Raise Rates and Downgrades Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jeff_Berwick

We have made some very bold claims in the past.  Since 2010, to many jears, we said that the Federal Reserve would never raise rates significantly again.  Most laughed.  They said that surely this crazy, emergency 0% interest rate policy was only temporary.  Five long years passed, and even a Fed Chairman later, before finally, after seven years-to-the-day, on December 16th, Janet Yellen took the bold move to raise rates 0.25%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 28, 2016

The Fed Passes the Buck: Blame Oil and China / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MISES

C. Jay Engel writes: There are a handful of themes out there on recent market action that are either totally wrong or otherwise highly misleading. For instance, regarding the recent calamity in the capital markets, one especially apparent dichotomy has presented itself as offering two choices as to what, exactly, is causing the painful turbulence.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

The Citadel Is Breached: Congress Taps the Fed for Infrastructure Funding / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Ellen_Brown

In a landmark infrastructure bill passed in December, Congress finally penetrated the Fed's "independence" by tapping its reserves and bank dividends for infrastructure funding.

The bill was a start. But some experts, including Congressional candidate Tim Canova, say Congress should go further and authorize funds to be issued for infrastructure directly.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Margin Rules Changes Force New Private Funding Of Public Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

The Federal Reserve and other regulators around the world (including all members of the G-20) have recently agreed to alter margin rules, which will allow them to claim new powers over lending and leverage. In the United States these developing regulatory changes will not be restricted to the Fed's legal oversight over banks alone, but will affect all financial companies.

The new margin rules will impact about $4.4 trillion in investments in the US. In combination with new rules for $2.7 trillion in money funds, the regulations are changing for about $7 trillion in investments. And the combined effect of these changes may be to drive up to $2.5 trillion out of the private investment markets and into purchasing the debts of a heavily indebted US government, thereby providing a very low cost source of funds.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Junk Bonds Slump - Will 2016 be The Year The Fed Fails? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Clif_Droke

To many economists, the biggest mistake the Fed has made has been a lack of aggression in raising interest rates. After all, they reason, the U.S. job market is as strong as it has been since 2007 and the economy, even if sluggish, is at least back on an even keel. These same observers cheered the Fed's decision to raise the Fed funds rate in December by a quarter percentage point.

Yet there is even more reason to worry that the raising of the Fed funds rate last month may have been a policy blunder of major proportions. In this commentary we'll briefly examine the distinct possibility that the Fed has put the U.S. financial market on the cusp of another troublesome year ahead.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 18, 2016

Central Banks: the Biggest Short of All / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Mario_Innecco

Transcript Excerpt: Monday January 18th 2006 still like to talk about the big short book written by
mouth Michael movers who is really a lot of other books about finance he wrote
liars poker that was the region no
also lashed boys Wall Street that came out in 2014 the bigger shirt came was
written in and came out in 2010 and I watched the new movie that's come out
the big short that came out on December 15th in the USA is interesting because
it was the day before
hydrates and Wikipedia call in the American biographical comedy drama and
it's interesting to see that it cost twenty million to me the movie and it's
already grossed seventy million dollars in box office which is not bad for a

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 17, 2016

The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Has Begun - Pt 2 / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Graham_Summers

As we wrote earlier this week, bursting of the bond bubble has begun.

The decision by Central Banks to “inflate” the system’s debts away post-2008 has resulted in the misallocation of trillions of Dollars of capital.

The worst offenders were Chinese corporates. China has created the single largest mountain of bad debt in the world. Indeed, things are so out of control in China that 45% of all proceeds from new bond issuance are being used just to pay off interest on old loans.

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