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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: F_F_Wiley

It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs.

In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.

But maybe the powerful bear story has become overplayed, maybe it was fully or almost fully priced in by mid-May, when the 10-year Treasury yield reached a six-year high of 3.11%. If so, it might be a good time to revisit the argument that the secular bull is still intact, a time for contrarians to speak up.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The Federal Reserve: Secretly Sticking It to Americans for Over 100 Years / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

In the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the private Federal Reserve bank cartel was front and center as a target for public outrage.

Former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul’s "End the Fed" message suddenly resonated. Americans hated Fed officials bailing out the banksters – richly rewarding them for crooked and irresponsible behavior which helped create the crisis.

But years have passed. Americans have been enjoying the expansion stage of the next great bubble. The central planners at the Fed and their colleagues at the nation’s largest banks have been busy stimulating the real estate, equity, and bond markets.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 13, 2018

72% of the Base Interest Rate Rise Already Factored into Mortgage Fixed Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights that two-year fixed rates were already on the rise before the Bank of England’s announcement earlier this month, with the average two-year fixed rate having risen by 0.18% since January 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Greek Debt Tragedy is Far From Over / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Rodney_Johnson

Last week, Greece received $17 billion from its creditors, representing the final installment of the country’s third bailout since 2010.

This is the last one.

Really. Stop laughing.

There’s no doubt the Southern Mediterranean country has endured a lot of pain over the last eight years.
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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 06, 2018

Technical Analysis and Interest Rates Unchanged – Here We Go / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US Federal Reserve is one of the only central banks to attempt to raise rates consistently over the past few years, has possibly learned a very valuable lesson – no good comes from raising rates to the point of causing another market collapse.  The news that the US Fed will leave interest rates where they are, temporarily, is good news for a number of reasons.

First, this allows the markets to shake out weaker players and weaker components of the corporate world.  Where corporate debt levels are concerned, interest rates are tied to debt repayment liabilities and refinancing costs.  Firms that are unable to manage at current interest rates certainly would not be happy about rising rates.  This allows these corporations to either struggle to resolve their debt issues or collapse under the weight of their own debt.  This will also play out in the foreign markets as well.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 04, 2018

Breaking Down the US Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / Government Spending

By: Rodney_Johnson

Second-quarter U.S. GDP jumped by an annualized 4.1%, putting a spring in the step of the Trump administration and the congressional leadership.

And why not?

Those two groups are responsible for turbo-charging the U.S. economy through tax reform, which cut taxes by more than $1 trillion, putting a ton of cash in the hands of corporations and consumers.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 02, 2018

Bank of England Base Rate Increases to 0.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: MoneyFacts

The Bank of England’s decision to increase interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% marks the first time the base rate has risen above 0.50% in almost 10 years. But what does this latest increase mean to the average person on the street?

Charlotte Nelson, Finance Expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Trump Declares War on the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

It appears when it comes to fighting the old Washington establishment---comprised of the deep state and the Federal Reserve--Mr. Trump is getting sucked into the vortex of the D.C. swamp rather than draining it. The hope was for our “Disrupter in Chief” to be more concerned about our children’s future than his own; and for his focus to span beyond the next election cycle. Instead of allowing consumers to finally receive a real return on their savings; and to let asset bubbles seek a level that can be supported by the free market, Trump has chosen to breach a boundary that has been essential to providing hope for the future solvency of our nation.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 19, 2018

The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2018

By: F_F_Wiley

This post is excerpted from my book Economics for Independent Thinkers, although with some updating. It seems relevant after the CBO’s latest long-term budget outlook, which in its optimistic “baseline scenario” called for America’s net federal debt to double over the next 30 years, rising from 76% of GDP in 2017 to 152% in 2048.

Before reaching this chapter or even picking up this book, I imagine many of you were already loosely divided into the two major camps of the public debt debate. The first camp is already concerned and doesn’t need my research to form an opinion. These people stress the math involved in borrowing—the idea that you get do extra stuff today, but you have to somehow pay for it in the future. Meanwhile, those in the other camp ask, “So what?” They might argue that America will make good on its debt because “it always does.” Or they’ll point confidently to America’s unique advantages as a military superpower, paragon of political stability, and steward of the world’s predominant reserve currency. Confronted with the lessons of history, they’ll say, “This time is different.”

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 14, 2018

Uncle Sam’s Debt-Money System Is Immoral, Tantamount to Theft / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Keith Weiner, CEO and Founder of Monetary Metals, and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. Keith is a hard money advocate who has been an outspoken proponent for the gold standard and restoring sound money to our nation's monetary system. Keith has a PhD from the New Austrian School of Economics, and his articles have appeared in numerous publications on Internet sites throughout the globe, and it's a real pleasure to have him on with us today.

Keith, thanks so much for taking the time, and welcome.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 13, 2018

How International Observers Undervalue the Chinese Bond Market / Interest-Rates / China

By: Dan_Steinbock

Criticism is typical of vibrant international media. Yet, prejudiced biases in financial matters have the potential to harm investors worldwide. The Chinese bond market is a case in point.

Not only is China’s bond market growing explosively, but it has become diversified and provides broad investment options to both Chinese and foreign investors.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Is this the Most Hawkish Fed Ever? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

My research shows that this is one of the most hawkish Fed rate-hiking regimes ever. It has raised rates seven times during this current cycle and is on pace to raise the Fed Funds Rate(FFR) four times this year and three times in 2019.

But what makes its monetary policy extraordinarily restrictive is that for the first time in history the Fed is also selling $40 billion per month of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasuries starting in Q3 and $600 billion per year come October. Because the Fed is destroying money at a record pace while the rest of the world’s major central banks are still engaged in money printing (QE) and zero interest rate policies (ZIRP), Jerome Powell’s trenchant and unilateral tightening policy is now causing chaos in emerging markets.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Things To Know About This Week’s CBO US Debt Report / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: F_F_Wiley

Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Office’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which was released on Tuesday.

  1. The CBO’s baseline scenario shows federal debt held by the public rocketing upward at a trajectory not seen since 2009, but this time on a sustained basis and breaching 150% of GDP by 2048. Here’s the chart:
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The Federal Reserve And Long-Term Debt – Warning! / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Kelsey_Williams

Won’t somebody please say something different about the Federal Reserve? Or nothing at all?

It seems amazing to me that we are so studiously focused on comments, statements, or actions emanating from the Fed. It is as if we expect to find a morsel of truth that will give us special insight or a clue as to their next move.

I suppose that is reasonable to a certain extent – especially today. We are social-app (il)literate and very impatient. Seems to be a sort of day-trader mentality.  Problem is that every morning we see the same headlines. All week long we hear about the most recent Fed meeting, or the release of minutes from the last meeting, or what to expect at the next meeting, etc., etc. And the cycle repeats itself every month. (I’m not Bill Murray and this is not Ground Hog Day.) 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn in 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: F_F_Wiley

I realize it’s getting late to discuss the June 12–13 FOMC meeting, but I think the Fed’s biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference, I spent some time last week reviewing old speeches, transcripts and other materials produced by Fed officials. I’m now convinced that Chairman Jerome Powell delivered an important message that went largely unreported, and I expect him to keep at it until people take notice.

Powell’s message is that he intends to pop bubbles—both asset-price and credit bubbles. He didn’t communicate a precise threshold for bubble popping, but I believe he meant not just big bubbles but potentially little bubbles and possibly even pre-bubbles if that becomes necessary to contain the risks of financial instability. If we take him at his word, we should expect him to respond much more aggressively than his predecessors did to financial excesses, and those aggressive responses will occur even without an inflation threat. In other words, policy adjustments designed to maintain financial stability could disconnect from the FOMC’s inflation target.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 25, 2018

Powell is Playing “Chicken” With $10 Trillion in $USD Shorts / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Graham_Summers

Thus far in his tenure as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell has emphasized that he is more concerned with the real economy than the financial markets.

Put another way, the Powell Fed, unlike the Bernanke or Yellen Feds before it, is willing to sacrifice stocks in the name of normalizing monetary policy provided the economy can withstand it.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 07, 2018

Judgment Day for the ECB / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Will the ECB Withstand Pressure?

Next week, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting. The bank was expected to start winding down its stimulus program at the end of 2018. However, Italian turmoil led some analysts to think that the ECB will remain cautious. Will the ECB withstand the pressure or funk? And what does it all mean for the gold market?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 05, 2018

What the Bond Markets Are Finally Saying About Italy / Interest-Rates / Italy

By: Harry_Dent

Over the years I’ve spent much time talking about Italy as the next ticking time bomb for Europe and the global banking system.

It’s government debt is the third highest in the world at 132% of GDP, coming only after Japan and Greece.

Its private debt is 23% of the Eurozone versus Greece’s 3%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2018

The Bond Market Just Figured Out That Central Banks CANNOT Exit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

To recap yesterday’s piece concerning the recent shift in Central Bank policy, from mid-2016 onward:

1)   Central Banks engaging in emergency levels of QE at a time in which their respective economies were growing.

2)   Inflation bottoming then beginning to rise.

3)   Bond markets starting to revolt.

4)   Central Banks opting to walk back their QE programs.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 21, 2018

Inverted Yield Curve: It’s Definitely Not Different This Time / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on shorter-dated securities is above that on longer-term bonds; and it has predicted all nine U.S. recessions since 1955, according to Bloomberg. Of course, now that the yield curve is the flattest since 2007—with the 2-10 spread falling to just 45 basis points, from 260bps in 2014--right on cue the carnival barkers on Wall Street have been deployed in full force claiming this key financial barometer is now broken.

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