Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond MarketThe analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 02, 2016
It is said that history has a sense of irony. The latest US election is not an exception.
Consider the following…
- Donald Trump campaigned aggressively on trade… particularly his opposing of the fact that the US gets taken advantage of by foreign nations via bad trade deals.
- Trump wins the Presidency on November 8, 2016.
- US trade gets royally screwed in the currency markets.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
The Federal Reserve And Interest Rates: Definitely NOT What You Think / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Where we are today is the culmination of decades of irresponsible financial/fiscal policies and a complete abdication of fundamental economics. But that should not be a surprise. The self-proclaimed purpose of the Federal Reserve Bank is to manage the economic cycles; an impossibly presumptive task and a violation of fundamental economic theory.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
As we keep warning, India is not the “last stop” in the global financial elites’ war on cash.
Indeed, as ZeroHedge noted earlier today, officials are proposing a tax on cash withdrawals in Greece. They’re also proposing only permitting digital cash or cards for various transactions.
The claim behind this policy is that it would stop cash being used in the black market. This is similar to other claims that implementing a carry tax on physical cash or banning it altogether would stop money laundering or other illicit activities.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
BY JARED DILLIAN : It’s almost as if I can see the future.
In the September 22 issue of The 10th Man, I went through the math of how people would get screwed in a bond bear market.
I gave some concrete examples of what would happen if rates backed up 100 basis points. And sure enough, since the election, rates have backed up about 40 basis points.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 28, 2016
We must deal with the debt if we are going to survive . We have two options: Simply stop spending or grow the economy. “Stop spending” is easier said than done. And boosting growth is going to be difficult too.
Total debt this year rose by 6.8%, almost double our growth rate. Not the right direction. After eight years of the slowest economic recovery in history, growing our debt dramatically faster than we are growing our country—even when we include inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 27, 2016
Europe Will Devalue Or Dissolve - Welcome To The Currency War / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
No rest for the wicked. With the shockwaves from Brexit and President Trump still reverberating around the world, the established order is bracing for more bad news. Next up is a December 4 Italian constitutional referendum that might end the reign of centrist prime minister Matteo Renzi and replace him with a bunch of anti-euro iconoclasts from the Brexit/Trump part of the spectrum.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 27, 2016
Italian Bank Collapse European Sovereign Bond Carnage, Criss-Crossed Fuses & Lit Bonfire / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016
Many are the potential fuses to be lit, which would create the conflagration, the massive bonfire of the bond vanities and bank charades. Many are the fuses lying around, all criss-crossed, all exposed, all overlapping each other in highly dangerous manner. If any single fuse is lit, then several will light and the detonation arrives. It is unavoidable since the financial world is so deeply interwoven. Never in modern history has the global financial structure been so badly weakened, so totally corrupted, so thoroughly undermined by control mechanisms, so intensely defended by sanctions even war. In 2007 and early 2008, the Jackass warned of a mortgage bust that would alter the global system forever. It happened with far reaching consequences which endure to this day.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 24, 2016
- War On Cash Goes Global – India, Australia and Citibank
- India shock cancellation of nation’s two highest-denomination notes
- India effectively invalidates & removes 86% of cash from circulation
- India sees “runs on banks” & severe financial difficulties
- Citi to makes all Australian branches cashless
- Australian pilot programme restricts 80% of payments on card
- UBS proposes Australia eliminates $100 and $50 bills
- What can we do about this?
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The U.S. Presidential election is over. One candidate won, one lost, but the mathematics did not change.
Mathematics of What?
- US government debt has grown far more rapidly than GDP for decades. This is unsustainable.
- US government revenues increase about 4% per year while the official debt has grown at 9% per year, on average, since 1913. Official debt doubles in eight years regardless of which borrow and spend party and politicians are supposedly running the country and that is unsustainable.
- Official debt is currently about $20 trillion. Does $40 trillion in official debt sound plausible in the year 2024?
- How about $80 trillion in the year 2032?
- Worse, the debt goes astronomical if the financial and political elite choose hyperinflation.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Stock Market Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story
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Chart of the Day
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Reversal Interest Rates Are the Next Big Challenge for Central Banks / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
BY SAMUEL RINES : Negative and ultra-low interest rates have become the norm for the developed world. The phrases “lower for longer” and “new normal” are now accepted as facts rather than predictions. But, how low is too low?
For many developed world economies, rates remain low in order to combat stagnation as growth slows. Negative rates are a side effect of these deep, fundamental economic issues.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 19, 2016
In Donald Trump’s first four years as president, he will not only choose three judges for the Supreme Court, he’ll also pick five of the seven members on the Fed Board of Governors. It would be impossible to overstate the effect this is going to have on the nation’s economic future. With both houses of Congress firmly in the GOP’s grip, we could see the most powerful central bank in the world transformed into a purely political institution that follows the diktats of one man.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
What kind of President will Donald Trump be? Will he restore America to its former position of greatness, or end up being feckless like a long list of his predecessors? That is yet to be determined.
However, what is clear now is if Donald Trump wants to avoid starting his tenure with an economic crisis similar to that of Mr. Obama he will need to put a lid on long-term interest rates rather quickly. And in order to do that he will have to convince a supposedly politically-agnostic Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, to not only refrain from further interest rates hikes but also to launch another round of long-term Treasury debt purchases known as Quantitative Easing (QE).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 14, 2016
Over a Trillion dollars has been vaporized in the bond market in just one week. The phrase "blood bath" is an understatement as the widows and orphans have been routed. This isn't supposed to happen in the the bond market. So is the great 33 year bond bull finally over and the deluge that we knew would ultimately come upon us? Not so fast chipmunk, is my reply and this is why. All great bull markets go through three complete phases. Phase I is the accumulation or stealth phase, phase II is the mark-up phase which lasts the longest and phase III is the blow off or mania phase. The NASDAQ and the oil bull markets exhibit provide us clean examples of these three phases in their 10 year bull runs which ended in crashes. Phase III is characterized by violent and deep yet short term corrections which shakeout all but the strongest hands. That is what the government bond market is undergoing in this recent violent move. First let's review those two bull markets in the NASDAQ and oil.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 12, 2016
The answer to where T-Bonds are headed is not in the news headlines about Trump. It's in the Elliott wave pattern
On November 9, the United States woke to the biggest political shock since Harry Truman defeated "shoe-in" Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 U.S. presidential election.
For U.S. bond investors, the 2016 election has been head-spinning too.Read full article... Read full article...