Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
What If the Foreigners Stop Buying Our Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Doug_Horning
By Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, Casey Research - “I have always depended on the kindness of strangers,” said Blanche DuBois, in the final words of the play A Streetcar Named Desire. Well, don’t we all.
Many citizens probably still cling to the old saw that public debt doesn’t matter because “we owe it to ourselves.” Wrong. Debt always matters. And as for whom we owe it to, it is a lot of kind (or, at least, not yet unkind) strangers.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
The Fed's Policy of Near Zero Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bob_Chapman
One of the outcomes of Fed policy of near zero interest rates is that seniors cannot live on an income of 1-1/% and that pension funds, insurance companies and endowments cannot fulfill their commitments. As yields eventually rise, although the Fed has signaled that is at least a year away, and if Japan is any guideline, we could be 19 years away from solving the problem of fiduciaries.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Are U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Headed Lower? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
I am beginning to see signs that there is a high likelihood of this occurring over the next couple of weeks. Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Ultra Short Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (symbol: PST); this is an ETF that corresponds to the inverse of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury index.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Fixed Interest Rate Bonds Shelf Life Hits New Low / Interest-Rates / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
Savers looking to take out a fixed rate bond need to act fast after the average bond shelf-life fell to a new low of 23 days last month.
At its peak in March 2006, the average shelf-life of a fixed rate bond was 158 days.
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Saturday, November 14, 2009
Origins of the Federal Reserve Banking System- Part 3 / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Murray_N_Rothbard
Jacob Schiff Ignites the Drive for a Central Bank
The defeat of the Fowler Bill for broader asset currency and branch banking in 1902, coupled with the failure of Secretary of Treasury Shaw's attempts of 1903–1905 to use the Treasury as a central bank, led the big bankers and their economist allies to adopt a new solution: the frank imposition of a central bank in the United States.
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Saturday, November 14, 2009
Origins of the Federal Reserve Banking System-Part 2 / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Murray_N_Rothbard
Charles A. Conant: Surplus Capital and Economic Imperialism
The years shortly before and after 1900 proved to be the beginnings of the drive toward the establishment of a Federal Reserve System. It was also the origin of the gold-exchange standard, the fateful system imposed upon the world by the British in the 1920s and by the United States after World War II at Bretton Woods. Even more than the case of a gold standard with a central bank, the gold-exchange standard establishes a system, in the name of gold, which in reality manages to install coordinated, international, inflationary, paper money.
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Saturday, November 14, 2009
Origins of the Federal Reserve Banking System / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Murray_N_Rothbard
The Progressive Movement
The Federal Reserve Act of December 23, 1913, was part and parcel of the wave of Progressive legislation on local, state, and federal levels of government that began about 1900. Progressivism was a bipartisan movement that, in the course of the first two decades of the 20th century, transformed the American economy and society from one of roughly laissez-faire to one of centralized statism.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
The Sterling Interest Rate Yield Curve Steep and Steepening / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Friday, November 13, 2009
Buying Government Bonds is a Mugs Game / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
Suppose that I am thinking about buying a bond and its yield is 3.5 percent. This is a nominal yield before taxes and before accounting for price inflation. To estimate my real return, I need to estimate future price inflation. If, for example, I think that price inflation is going to be 3.0 percent, then I expect my before-tax yield will be only about 0.5 percent.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Governments in a Hurry to Borrow Cash to Re-Finance Debt / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Adrian_Ash
"With 30-year bond yields still lower than they were before last winter's wipe-out, there's an urgency about refinancing debt as 2010 draws near..."
IT'S NOT JUST the US Treasury that needs to borrow more, for longer, over the next few months and years.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Monetary Policy Outlook / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
By: RGE_Monitor
In this week’s note, we take a look at some recent monetary policy trends in advanced economies. This content is excerpted from a longer piece, “Global Monetary Policy Review,” which includes in-depth analysis of when the world’s emerging markets might shift interest rate strategy. This longer piece is available exclusively for the use of RGE’s clients.
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Municipal Bonds A Dangerous Investment For 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Abraham
Many times just using logic an investor can steer away from problems. It seemed forever municipal bonds were considered one of the safest investments. One did not get rich by investing in municipal bonds however they were consistent and the default possibility was almost not a possibility. Fast forward to 2009 municipal bonds have to be one of the scariest investment choices. All one has to do is to look at State by State finances to be aware.
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Are US Treasuries About to Rally… or Crash? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Historically, because the US was the #1 superpower (and the largest economy in the world), Treasuries have generally held to be one of the very few “risk free” investments on the planet. Consequently, Treasuries are where money runs to hide when the rest of the financial world is in trouble.
You can see this in the below chart: as soon as the Financial Crisis began in earnest with the credit market lockup in July 2007, 30-Yr Treasuries broke above 112: a point of historical resistance. This told us two things:
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Bailed Out Banks Continue to Raise Loan Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: MoneyFacts
Since Bank Rate dropped to the historic low level of 0.50% in March, loan rates have continued to increase.
In this period half of all lenders offering personal loans, have upped their rates.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Confusing Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The US, UK and European bond markets have all experienced recent double failures at long-term all-time highs. So the long-term technical outlook is bearish. But those failures occurred nearly a year ago. They have fallen since, but from June this year they have lacked any bear impetus at all. Any medium and long-term structures that have developed are far from completion and markets are locked in trading ranges. Traders should stand aside and await events.