Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:07:42 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Website en-gb http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/logo.gif http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ site_admin@marketoracle.co.uk http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5325.html The recent week has seen crude oil soar through $140 onwards and upwards to a new record high of $146. Much of this gain has been attributed to the growing tension in the middle east with regards a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and the drop in US oil stockpiles.The rise has been accompanied by investors dumping stocks as highly inflationary oil prices continue to contribute towards the destruction of economic activity that pushed the major US indices into technical bear markets (20% down from Oct 07 highs).. Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:07:42 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5324.html I would say that things are downright scary, but I am afraid that would be a colossal understatement at this point. 2008 has been pretty much what we expected and then some. A couple of themes have emerged during the first half of this year that require our attention and careful consideration as we gear up for the second half of the year. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:00:42 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5323.html The Dow Jones Industrial Average is already in the bear's grasp. And the U.S. economy may well be headed for a recession. But here's the ultimate irony: Bear-market investing offers a direct pathway to the biggest profit opportunities most investors will ever see. History shows time and again that the worst returns come to those who buy at - or even near - market peaks, like those of 1928, 1969, 1999 and 2007, when Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios are typically higher than “normal.” Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:21:25 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5322.html In my May article, Food Shock , I mentioned that biofuel production was consuming many of the crops normally used for food. Riots have broken out over the sharp price rises of 37% last year, and 16% so far in 2008. Coffee, soybeans and wheat are increasingly diverted to biodiesel production, driving prices higher. Almost a quarter of America's corn crop was distilled into ethanol last year, and the percentage is expected to grow another 10% in 2008. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:09:46 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5321.html We have been asked whether South African gold shares remain a good investment? Our stock answer will be from now on, yes, in the longer term . How could we say that when it is becoming apparent to all that the political and economic climate of South Africa is decaying and looks likely to continue to decay as far as one can see ahead? Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:13:41 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5320.html As Americans enter the July 4th weekend they have a lot to look forward to. First and foremost is the celebration of this nation's independence marked by a federal holiday. Then of course are the customary traditions of parades, fireworks, baseball games, and carnivals among the many. But one timeless tradition that nicely ties into the topic of this essay is the almighty barbeque. Barbequing is near and dear to the hearts of hundreds of millions of Americans. And millions of grillmeisters don their aprons and arm themselves with extra-long stainless-steel-forged tongs and spatulas as they prepare to strut into their backyards for their moments of glory. These champions of grilling take pride in the delectable cuisines they skillfully prepare for friends and family. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 12:47:26 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5319.html The theme of today's show is, “How low can the Dow go?”  I have attached a chart of the DJIA that is looking more probable than when I first made this chart several months ago.  When this pattern first became evident, I set it aside as a novelty rather than take it seriously.  Today, I am looking at a much higher probability of this chart being fulfilled .  Thu, 03 Jul 2008 12:03:09 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5318.html White knuckles and shaky knees abound as the bear's growl grows louder. While on the road in Switzerland (where even the gnomes are gloomy), I have put together a table of global stock markets' performance – over various measurement periods and in both local currency and US dollar terms. The numbers speak for themselves and can best be summarized in a single sentence: “Nowhere to hide.” The Wall Street “leash effect” remained paramount, and decoupling nothing more than a theoretical myth. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:28:39 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5317.html Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise. Seasonally Adjusted In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 390,500, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average of 379,250. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:18:22 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5316.html Gold  rose to $94 4 .80 in New York yesterday and was up $ 2.0 0 and silver closed at $18. 33 , up  13  cents.  Gold has remained firm near 10 week highs on the surging oil price which reached a new record high today < $145.72 - Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - AUG08>. The dollar is flat today after it's decline in value in recent days. Against the euro, the dollar looks set to fall through support at 1.60 in the coming days and 1.70 euro/dollar looks like a very real possibility by the end of September. Longer term the likelihood of a sharp long recession in the U.S. could well see the euro reach 1.80 or even 2.00 against the dollar (as sterling did to the surprise of many in recent years). Thu, 03 Jul 2008 08:30:11 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5315.html SPOT GOLD PRICES recovered an overnight dip early in London on Thursday, re-touching this week's two-month highs as crude oil broke new all-time records near $146 per barrel and the Dollar fell after the much-expected Eurozone rate-hike. As flagged by European Central Bank members since April, the ECB in Frankfurt today raised its overnight lending rate to 4.25%, widening the Euro's advantage over US Dollars to 225 basis points. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 08:24:24 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5314.html The July 2nd Remarks of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson , on the World Economy and Markets before the Chatham House were quite remarkable. Let's have a look at a few of them. Whether it was Long Term Capital Management in 1998 or Bear Stearns this year, it is clear that Americans have come to expect the Federal Reserve to step in to avert events that pose unacceptable systemic risk. But, as we noted in our Blueprint, the Fed has neither the clear statutory authority nor the mandate to attempt to anticipate and prevent risks across our entire financial system. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:33:26 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5313.html Originally written 30th June 2008 - Following the market trend is a proven way for investors to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Basic technical analysis provides the tools to identify and follow the trends of the market as determined by the S&P 500. It is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 03:56:07 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5312.html Sean Brodrick writes:I've been pounding the table about an energy crisis for quite some time. As a loyal reader of my Money and Markets column, you might think I've been proven right by gasoline soaring over $4 a gallon in 32 states and oil hitting new record highs. But most of what I've been talking about is simply the long-term supply/demand squeeze that will transform our oil-addicted civilization in the future. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 03:20:31 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5311.html The deflation train picks up steam as AirTran Asks Employees To Take "Temporary" Pay Cuts . On Wednesday, AirTran Holdings asked for temporary wage concessions from all of its employees, TradeTheNews reported. AirTran will ask all workers to accept pay cuts between 5% and 13%, and officers will take a 15% cut, effective in August, for six months. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:52:51 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5310.html Jefferson and Washington fought a war for the principle of independence , meaning the moral right of an individual to live his own life as he sees fit. America's cities and towns will soon fill with parades, fireworks, and barbecues in celebration of the Fourth of July, the 232nd birthday of America. But one hopes that the speeches will contain fewer bromides and more attention to exactly what is being celebrated. The Fourth of July is Independence Day, but America's leaders and intellectuals have been trying to move us further and further away from the meaning of Independence Day, away from the philosophy that created this country. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 00:38:20 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5309.html It seems that everyone wants to get rich. There are books out on that subject, classes that are headed by someone who can show you an easy way to get rich, rich people willing to drop advice on how to get rich, and many other schemes that guarantee you will get rich fast. Getting rich is one of the main goals of most people, and while it is never easy, there are some sensible techniques that will increase your chances of getting rich. Thu, 03 Jul 2008 00:01:59 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5308.html One thing we find truly amazing about the markets is that they're much more than just investments. Markets provide a way of peeking into the future, if you understand what they're trying to tell you. These lessons are ongoing but it's fascinating and like a giant puzzle. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 18:41:03 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5307.html Marks & Spencer's share price crashed by 25% today following announcement of a sharp drop in sales of 5.3% for the second quarter. The slump in sales translates into a sharp fall in profits for the same period that defies the retail sales statistics released for May 2008. M&S earnings could fall by as much as 1/3rd for the current financial year on existing expectations of £900 million, as consumers continue to cut back on spending in the face of loss of household equity, increased debt servicing costs and higher energy and food costs. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 17:01:41 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5306.html The US Dollar is on the edge of the chasm again. The nonsense has been cast aside about a bank recovery, a housing stabilization, and an economy that can withstand a spillover. How incredible it is to see grown adults accept such marketing and promotional drivel. Wake up and smell the blood! The US financial and economic system has never been so vulnerable in almost a century. What we see now is far more dangerous than the 1970 decade, characterized by vast cost shocks. Back then, China was not a player. Its current presence puts a price ceiling on finished product pricing power, and even more importantly, on wages broadly in the labor market. Households cannot afford higher prices, as bankruptcy pain escalates. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:48:40 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5305.html On June 25th , the Fed made no changes in its key interest rates and issued a statement that underscored how narrow their room for maneuver had become. Caught between the opposing forces of economic contraction and inflation, the Fed revealed that it was locked in neutral.  Given that the Fed must use opposite remedies to satisfy the demands of its dual mandate (higher rates to curb inflation and lower rates to stimulate growth), the Fed is stuck firmly in neutral.  There appears to be nothing left to do except to talk and hope for the best. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:03:09 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5304.html The New York Times is reporting Deepening Cycle of Job Loss Seen Lasting Into '09 . Plummeting home prices have in recent months eliminated jobs for hundreds of thousands of people, from bankers and real estate agents to construction workers and furniture manufacturers. “The labor market is clearly deteriorating, and it's highly likely to keep deteriorating,” said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs. “It's clear that the housing downturn and credit crunch are still very much under way. Clearly, there are more jobs to be lost in housing, finance and construction — hundreds of thousands of more jobs to be lost collectively.” Wed, 02 Jul 2008 14:53:41 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5303.html How to Multiply Asia 's Gains by 230% - "...Whatever you think investing should taste of, it no longer just comes in vanilla..." DID YOU KNOW...? Private investors like you can make 230% of emerging Asia 's super-soar-away gains between now and 2014. You're only tied in for three years. An early exit will return 130% of your initial investment. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 14:41:25 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5302.html Crunch Time for Debt - “Consumer boom shows US out of the woods... Despite the jump in energy prices and the related collapse in measures of consumer confidence, retail sales rose by 1.1 per cent on the month, the strongest gain since November...If there were going to be a US recession in response to the credit crisis, it would have started by now. So let me stick my neck out and say without qualification the US is out of the woods.” Anatole Kaletsky , The Times June 18th 2008. Thank Heaven for the resilient US consumer, soldiering on stoically under an enormous burden of debt. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:18:42 -0500 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5301.html The global recession is picking up steam. The US is in contraction, U.K. Manufacturing Is In Contraction , and now Euro zone manufacturing activity is in contraction . The euro zone's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, compiled by data and research group Markit, slid to 49.2 points in June, from 50.6 in May, up slightly from an initial estimate of 49.1. Wed, 02 Jul 2008 10:50:57 -0500