Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:27:18 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Website en-gb http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/logo.gif http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ site_admin@marketoracle.co.uk http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33010.html Brett Eversole writes: You've probably never considered this precious metal before. But you should today... The last time a trade like this set up, investors walked away with a double in just 10 months. And every similar trade in the last seven years was a winner. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:27:18 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33009.html Washington's longstanding policy is regime change in Iran and Syria. At issue is replacing independent regimes with client ones and securing unchallenged control of valued Middle East resources. On February 4, Russia and China vetoed a largely one-sided anti-Assad resolution. A previous article called him more victim than villain. Yet he's falsely blamed for months of externally generated violence. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:17:31 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33008.html Perhaps this chart will help explain the divergence that Charles Biderman of Trimtabs sees between the official unemployment numbers and the income tax data he has been tracking. The difference amongst the three measures revolves around the treatment of workers who desire a real full time job, but have to either settle for a part time position and other forms of under-employment that may technically qualify as a 'job' but not as a 'living,' or who have simply been removed from the government's official attention span. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:12:23 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33007.html Gold Stock Trades will not regale you with the growing presence of nuclear facilities throughout the world despite the German (EWG)  and Japanese (FXY) negative stance.  It is well known that reactors (NLR) are going to come online in increasing numbers and that uranium will be in rising demand.  In fact, several reactors (PKN) are being built right here in the United States as well as all over the world. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:04:41 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33006.html Recently, the stock market has been roaring, with the S&P 500 up a stunning 22% from October 3, 2011, which was the low of last year. In fact, the first month of 2012 has been one of the best Januaries on record for US stocks. On top of that, last Friday's better-than-expected jobs report seems to provide further evidence that we're turning a corner. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:20:44 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33005.html SPOT MARKET gold prices fell further Monday morning in London, reaching $1713 an ounce by lunchtime – a 2.8% drop from last week's high – as stock and commodity markets also ticked lower, while US Treasury bond prices gained. Silver prices dropped to $33.09 per ounce – 3.9% down on the high from last week – as uncertainty grew over the long-running Greek debt issue. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:15:08 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33004.html “You can’t feel the heat until you hold your hand over the flame. You have to cross the line just to remember where it lays.” ~ Rise Against. “Satellite” Lyrics ~ Friday morning traders and market participants awaited the key January employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reaction to the supposedly wonderful report was a surge in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contracts as well as several other key equity index futures. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:10:43 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33003.html NOW Greece is going to matter? Just when we were planning to get bullish, the Futures are off half a point as concerns about Greece, of all things, come back to the forefront as pretty much the entire country is poised to strike this evening on the expected news that even stricter austerity measures will be jammed down the throats of a Nation that is already suffering from 20% unemployment. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:57:35 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33002.html Friday's big rally on the better than expected employment report has now generated the kind of euphoria that often creates intermediate degree tops. This coming week will be the 18th week of the current intermediate cycle. As you can see in the chart below the intermediate cycle runs on average 18-25 weeks from trough to trough. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:47:16 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33001.html Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,717.00, EUR 1,315.31, and GBP 1,090.85 per ounce. Friday's AM fix was USD 1759.50, EUR 1,335.48, and GBP 1,110.66 per ounce. Gold has followed the now familiar trading pattern of gains in Asia followed by weakness in Europe. While gold has fallen and is weaker in most currencies gold remains higher in euro terms due to euro weakness on the concern of a Greek default. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:23:15 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33000.html Don Miller writes: The never-ending hunt for higher yield is leading investors to bet record amounts on emerging market debt. In just the first two weeks of 2012, governments of undeveloped economies from Asia to Africa sold more than $30.6 billion in dollar-denominated bonds according to Bloomberg News. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 06:31:15 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32999.html Shah Gilani writes: In case you didn't catch the article titled "Guilty Pleas Hit the 'Mark'" in the Wall Street Journal, I'm here to make sure you don't miss it. This is too good. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 06:27:11 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32998.html Michael A. Robinson writes: Using GPS to track a risky teenage driver or a cheating spouse is about to become old hat. You see, we are actually on the verge of a revolution that will allow us to locate and track every physical object made in the world. Not to mention literally every person on planet Earth. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 06:24:33 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32997.html Economic Collapse writes: On Friday, the entire financial world celebrated when it was announced that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to 8.3 percent. That is the lowest it has been since February 2009, and it came as an unexpected surprise for financial markets that are hungry for some good news. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls jumped by 243,000 during the month of January. You can read the full employment report right here. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 05:18:30 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32996.html Speculating and investing in this sector is difficult. It is a far more difficult industry than others and that is why companies continue to struggle and fail even with the luxury of high metals prices. We’ve written extensively about the recent major bottom in the precious metals sector and the very positive outlook for the equities in 2012 and likely 2013. One can make money if they buy and hold a mutual fund or ETF but they can generate far superior performance with a basket of the right companies. The following explains what we look for in order to uncover the juniors that will deliver outstanding returns. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 04:08:27 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32995.html Most people don't realize that for about 75 years after Civil War, in the United States, a bank's officers, directors and shareholders had personal liability in excess of the value of their shares.  If a bank were to be declared insolvent by the regulator, they were required to make up the shortfall in an insolvency with their personal assets.  This tends to focus the attention of the bankers to be more responsible in terms of their lending and other business practices and provides an automatic way to self-regulate.  When you have no personal responsibility, other than maybe not getting a bonus next year, why not take big chance for a bigger personal payout?  There is no downside for bankers with today's limited liability and the public is now stuck with these losses because the bankers have shifted their responsibility to the public. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 04:02:41 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32994.html SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014. SPX: Intermediate trend - Intermediate uptrend still intact. Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 03:46:26 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32993.html A foreclosure settlement between five major banks guilty of “robo-signing” and the attorneys general of the 50 states is pending for Monday, February 6th; but it is still not clear if all the AGs will sign.  California was to get over half of the $25 billion in settlement money, and California AG Kamala Harris has withstood pressure to settle.  Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:25:24 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32992.html President Barack Obama on Friday hailed the Labor Department’s January employment report, calling it “good news.” Speaking in Arlington, Virginia, he declared that the economy is “growing stronger” and “the recovery is speeding up.” This supposedly “good news” will be used to justify doing nothing to seriously address the jobs crisis and proceed after the November elections with the imposition of unprecedented austerity measures that will further shred social programs for working and poor people. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:19:14 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32991.html Here is a fairly simple picture of some of the major metrics during the Great Depression. Too simple yes, but it tracks most of the major indicators. Hoover followed a policy of 'deleveraging,' that is, allowing for the economy to liquidate its prior excesses without changing much else. The Fed did respond to this crisis by expanding the monetary base fairly significantly as you can see. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 07:16:44 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32990.html I spend a great deal of time looking at the various government reports, and especially the Payrolls report as you know. I keep my own spreadsheets with their data, and measure various changes in the way in which they calculate the seasonal adjustment factors, imaginary jobs, and prior revisions. If I wish to leave you with one takeway, it is that the current use of the monthly headline number is more of a Sales and PR program for Wall Street and the government, and hardly the product of serious and thoughtful analysis of statistical data. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 07:13:58 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32989.html I was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been discussed though is the ISM data for January. ISM is broken into two components, services and manufacturing. Interesting that services represents a larger portion of the economy yet is given less emphasis. But that is neither here nor there. Both reports came in stronger than expected with services at a 10 month high while both continue to remain above the 50 level which defines expansion (above) and contraction (below). Sun, 05 Feb 2012 07:06:16 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32988.html On Friday, the U.S. jobless rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 8.3 percent, the lowest level since February 2009. According to the Labor Department, the economy added 243,000 jobs. Furthermore, today’s report includes revisions adding a total of 60,000 jobs to payrolls in November and December. The Labor Department also revised December’s gains to 203,000, from an initially reported 200,000. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 06:59:06 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32987.html Everyone knows by now that the US is facing difficult choices. Depending on what assumptions you use, the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are between $50 and $80 trillion and rising. It really doesn't matter, as there is no way that much money can be found, given the current system, even under the best of assumptions. Things not only must change, they will change. Either we will make the difficult choices or those changes will be forced by the market. And the longer we put off the difficult choices, the more painful the consequences. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 06:54:49 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32986.html The US market opened the week on a down note, dropping to SPX 1300, but ended at new uptrend highs, SPX 1345. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.95%. Asian market were mostly higher, gaining 0.6%. European markets were all higher, gaining 2.8%, and the DJ World index was up 2.4%. Positive economic reports for the week outpaced negative reports 11 to 6. On the downtick: personal spending, Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, the ADP index and factory orders. On the uptick: auto sales, personal income, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, monthly payrolls, the WLEI, investor sentiment, plus both weekly jobless claims and the unemployment rate improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by consumer credit, the twin deficits and consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend/week! Sun, 05 Feb 2012 06:38:56 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32985.html 1950s VANITY TECH With a terrifying sting in its tail and for more than 60 years, nuclear power has been sold as something for nothing, delivering electricity that will be cheap, clean and safe. Nuclear shills always said that, and still say that - and they have always been wrong. When a disaster happens that is so big it can't be talked down and yanked out of the media after a couple days, the nuclear shills go into quiet mode - but they always come back, like politicians saying this time things are going to change. You have to believe. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:36:20 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32984.html Impressive gains on stocks, it seems nothing can derail this trend atm. Finally however we meet some awaited targets, although I will be the 1st to admit I am really pushing the boat here and allowing for the bears to come up with some magic before I potentially revert and relinquish and ideas of seeing a reversal. Sometimes you got to know when to fold, we are at that point where if the bears don't come up with something, then the likely hood is that the markets are in something special and a test of the Oct 2007 highs are most probable. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:28:04 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32983.html Barack Obama’s new housing refinance plan has nothing to do with “lowering monthly mortgage payments so responsible borrowers can stay in their homes”. That’s all public relations bunkum. The truth is the banks want to offload their garbage mortgages onto Uncle Sam to avoid hundreds of billions of dollars in losses. That’s what this refi-ruse is really all about. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:13:40 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32982.html The creation of the euro zone may have given participants one currency, but it created other problems as well. One interest rate was supposed to fit all. Those sovereigns on the financial periphery of the 17 nations found low interest rates too good to be true. As a result, the borrowed funds they shouldn’t have borrowed to finance current debt, was thrown off by the economy. During the 1990s we wrote that one interest rate for all would destroy the euro, but as usual no one wanted to listen. The reason was simple, each nation was and is at a different stage of development and a nation paying 2% rates could now borrow at 4%, which is a giant difference. As debt grew the credit crisis occurred and the rules changed externally. As rates rose sovereigns got into more and more trouble. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:09:22 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32981.html Selling pressure earlier in the week gave way to strong demand for equities as concerns over the European debt crisis have been moved to the backburner. Investors have instead been focusing on the improved U.S. economic and employment picture. In an article by Reuters reporter Edward Krudy earlier this week there was a significant quote worth mentioning. The quote is from Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management. Larson said, "The U.S. appears to be slowly, slowly in the early stages of a decoupling from the euro zone." Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:02:41 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32980.html Eric Margolis writes: Far-called our navies melt away – On dune and headland sinks the fire – Lo, all our pomp of yesterday Is one with Nineveh and Tyre! ~ Rudyard Kipling 1897 "Recessional" The poet laureate of imperialism might write the same stanzas today about the successor of the British Empire, the American imperium, which, having reached its high water mark in the bleak mountains of Afghanistan, appears set to begin receding. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 11:54:15 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32979.html One of the most alluring temptations that face men is the desire to enter the inner ring. C. S. Lewis wrote a wonderful essay with this title. It should be part of every person's rite of passage into adulthood. The desire to enter the inner ring is closely related to the desire to maintain a New World Order. There is always an institutional claimant to New World Order status. It is always structured in terms of a series of concentric rings. These rings are always vertical. They are part of a pyramid of power. They are best represented by a stepped pyramid. (See Genesis 11.) Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:39:52 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32978.html Economics and politics. Accretion and repletion. Mergers and acquisitions. Joe Mazumdar, senior mining analyst with Haywood Securities, sees all of these as catalysts for a rebound in the junior gold space in 2012. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he reveals the names of companies he expects to take off. The Gold Report: What is the consensus among Haywood analysts on what 2012 will bring for mine commodities, particularly precious metals? Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:31:32 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32977.html Cheap money was trending long before "the" Facebook lost its article and 845 million people lost the rights to their lives... The U.S. FED'S status update last month about how it still loves cheap money always and forever was sure to work magic. Even if the pixie-dust did blow straight past output, incomes and capital formation. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:21:44 -0600 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32976.html Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.3% in January, down from 8.5% in December. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% registered in October 2009. Payroll Employment: +243,000 jobs in January vs. +203,000 in December. Private sector jobs increased 257,000 after a gain of 220,000 in December. A net gain of 60,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of November and December Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:14:44 -0600