Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:43:47 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Website en-gb http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/logo.gif http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ site_admin@marketoracle.co.uk http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40984.html First, the bad news… The selling is likely not over. The capitulation process may not be completed. Overall momentum remains down. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:43:47 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40983.html Gary Gately writes: The housing market recovery is for real this time. Coming after the housing market crash, the recovery is welcome news to those in the industry - and bodes well for the economy as a whole. "It almost seems too good to be true," Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told Money Morning. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:39:11 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40982.html Tony Daltorio writes: Anyone following how to invest in platinum this year has noticed the importance of South Africa to this metal's price. That's because most of the world's platinum supplies come from South Africa. The country produces nearly 70% of the world's platinum and is home to 80% of the world's reserves. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:27:49 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40981.html Dr. Kent Moors writes: Most investors have followed what the Fed's QE policy has done to gold, but few realize its impact on oil prices. Recently, I talked about how crude was beginning to occupy a position as a store of market value ("Why Oil Is Becoming the New 'Gold Standard," May 20, 2013). The development has been a direct consequence of the flight from holding gold. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:24:03 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40980.html Michael A. Robinson writes: The world's largest semiconductor firm's stock has become one of high tech's biggest value traps, which isn't a great place to be for stockholders. But things are changing and tech investors - all investors -- should take heed. First let's look at what it means to be a value trap. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:13:07 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40979.html “I'm neither traitor nor hero. I'm an American.” - Edward Snowden “If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.”  - Samuel Adams Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:07:03 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40978.html The Fed will announce its moves today at 2PM. There’s really no telling what will happen. The markets have become truly schizophrenic. For instance, stocks continue to rally as though more QE is coming. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 13:06:41 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40977.html All weekend long and this morning as I wake up in Monaco, the number of disparate publications screaming at me about problems in China is just overwhelming. Then I get myself up early to hear a speech by the esteemed British economist Charles Dumas of Lombard Street fame, and I am confronted with even more China. I have been watching China for a long time, expecting a crisis, as I readily admit I simply do not understand a country that has defied so many of the economic laws of gravity for so long. Some kind of return to normal economic paradigms seems almost mandated, but the question has always been when. Have the Chinese discovered some new control mechanism, found some different levers to pull that they should share with the rest of the world, or will we see them revert to something that looks more like whatever it is that passes for "normal" these days? My bet has always been the latter. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 12:55:53 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40976.html Following the May 25, 2013 Market Minute titled "Is oil about to breakout to higher levels?", Light crude prices have moved over a resistance level that have contain the commodity for over six months. As this transition is in its early stages, several additional days of price advancement will be required to confirm the breakout. Nevertheless, WTI prices are firming and signals a change in traders attitude toward this commodity. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 11:48:06 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40975.html Guess who the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) says has 430% more proven gas reserves than the US? Guess who has twice as much as the US in shale gas technically recoverable? Guess who has over twice as much proven oil reserves as the US? Wed, 19 Jun 2013 10:44:33 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40974.html After traveling nearly 6,000 miles by plane, helicopter and jeep, Evan Smith, portfolio manager at U.S. Global, is walking along a dirt path in Kenema past dilapidated shops covered with rusted, corrugated metal. He can hardly believe he has arrived at his destination. Surrounded by hundreds of miles of forest and savannah, it's tough to imagine an agricultural diamond-in-the-rough nearby. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 10:40:23 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40973.html Alexander Green writes: It’s amazing just how often – and how effectively – the media and its various talking heads get investors to take their eye off the ball. (In case you don’t play golf or baseball, taking your eye off the ball causes anything from a shank to a whiff.) Right now, for instance, the topic du jour is “When will the Fed begin ‘tapering’ its bond-buying program and how should I play it?” Wed, 19 Jun 2013 06:59:24 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40972.html Interest  Interest Rates represent the Balance Between Capital and Labor. Economic History revolves around that Balance Moving from one extreme to the other. Human Nature and Mathematics Drive those Swings.  No Group or Force can Stop that.  Any Machination or Manipulation, Individually or Collectively can only Elongate, Not Alter that Outcome. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 06:53:59 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40971.html A drop of the silver price to $ 10/ounce is highly unlikely in view of the sharply rising National Debt in the USA but also in Europe. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 06:29:42 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40970.html One of the most insidious problems taking place in the gold and silver mining industry is the decline in falling yields.  Not many realize, when yields decline, production evaporates and disappears.  To offset the decline in metal yields, the mining companies have to add new mines and or increase the amount of processed ore. Wed, 19 Jun 2013 06:27:37 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40969.html The big question on every investors’ lips today and tomorrow is: “will the Fed announce or hint at tapering QE?” Over the last two years, one of the biggest tools in the Fed’s arsenal has been verbal intervention: the act of saying something in order to push the market up. Time and again 2011-2012 saw various Fed Presidents appear at key points to push the market higher by promising more action or stimulus. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:49:58 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40968.html While I spent well over three decades writing books and teaching the subject of negotiations, some of the best lessons I learned on the subject came from luck. Many investment pundits recommend taking full advantage of the current buyer’s market in real estate. Lenders are foreclosing on many properties, often selling them at a loss. At the same time, many private sellers are listing their property on the market well below what they paid for it. This presents wonderful buying opportunities for those who can take advantage of them. If you are going to buy property, you want the best price you can get. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:45:19 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40967.html The official gold holdings (rounded numbers) of the US Treasury Department are as follows: Fort Knox 147,000,000 ounces West Point 54,000,000 ounces Denver 44,000,000 ounces Federal Reserve of NY 13,000,000 ounces Other 3,000,000 ounces Total 261,000,000 ounces Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:40:34 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40966.html George Leong writes: Volatility has been edging higher since the end of 2012, but so far, the stock market has held up pretty well. Take a look at the chart below of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “Fear Factor Index,” based on the S&P 500 Index. The VIX reading is holding around 16.8—well below some of its high readings since 1990, as shown on the chart. When the VIX is low, it suggests traders are relaxed and not concerned about the current stock market climate; but you need to remain alert, because investor mistakes occur when people are too confident. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:35:04 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40965.html Sasha Cekerevac writes:One reaction that should not surprise long-term investors is that the market will move far quicker and further than most people expect. Even before the Federal Reserve has made any statement regarding the timing of reducing its asset purchase program, investors have already begun selling their fixed-income investments, which is causing yields to rise. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:30:44 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40964.html GOLD drifted to a one-week low below $1380 an ounce Tuesday morning, as silver dipped below $21.80 an ounce, with stocks and commodities broadly flat on the day ahead of tomorrow's US Federal Reserve decision, with analysts speculating on whether the Fed will give details of when and how it might slow down its quantitative easing program. "The outlook for the gold price remains negative from a technical perspective," says Karen Jones, head of FICC technical analysis at Commerzbank. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:26:12 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40963.html GLACIERS ADVANCE, GLACIERS RETREAT Revealed by UK media shortly before the start of the G8 meeting near Lough Erne in Ulster, David Cameron's adviser for Europe, Ivan Rogers blocked moves from Germany and France to make climate change a major G8 agenda item. Ritual whines that this meeting is yet another “last hope for an international agreement that could avert catastrophic climate change” have worn thin, very thin. The real world potential for any international climate change pact setting European-style ETS carbon taxes and tradable permits is zero and not worth talking about. Linked whining about “rising concern” that the UK government is watering down its climate change mitigation ambitions, the same way these are on the point of being watered down in Germany, other European countries and the European Commission, are also not worth talking about – because the die is cast and change is coming. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 14:52:02 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40962.html It is nearing two years since I first published an article describing a theory titled "Contracting Fibonacci Spiral". For further information, simply Google "Contracting Fibonacci Spiral" and a plethora of articles should be listed to provide a more thorough description. Further to this, I published an article in the April 2013 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities (Submitted in October 2012) to attempt to bring more mainstream exposure to this concept. In a nutshell, the theory indicated important tops of 1966, 1987, 2000, 2008, with the next sequential date due in 2013. The ideal date was December 27th, 2012, but a 5% extension in time generated a date of May 21st, 2013. The broad stock market indices topped on May 22nd, 2013, which is either a fluke or is following the CFS, but with an extended time post for this move. The next CFS date is 3 years away and has already been determined and posted on our site. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 14:48:52 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40961.html Greg Madison writes: The United States claims a position as a world leader in many fields. And in a few of those fields, it still is. We like to think of ourselves as leaders in business, the free market, the entrepreneurial spirit. But the country is falling further and further behind in key competitive areas, giving up a lot of ground in the past 10 to 13 years. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 13:37:42 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40960.html Induced by “taper talk,” volatility in the bond market has been surging of late. Is there a bond bubble? Is it bursting? And if so, what are investors to do, as complacency might be financially hazardous. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 13:28:14 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40959.html We can count five waves up in wave A) from 1.5000 psychological level on the cable, which means that temporary high for this pair could be near if we consider that correction follows after every five waves. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 13:22:06 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40958.html Why keep the median wage low, despite rising profits and productivity? Whom does an increasingly debt-based economy serve? Tue, 18 Jun 2013 06:04:11 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40957.html The markets are rallying today because Bernanke and the Fed meet on Wednesday and will announce their new policies (if any). Someone might want to explain to them that the Nikkei just collapsed in spite of Central Bank policy. The bank of Japan announced it would buy $1.4 trillion worth of assets (roughly 25% of Japan’s GDP) in early April. The Nikkei has already wiped out almost all of the gains since that time. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 05:56:46 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40956.html On reflection, the two weekly charts below should have been included in the equity market overview that I sent out yesterday (http://www.beyondneanderthal.com/equity-market-risks-are-rising-3/ ). A significant “sell” signal has been given on the weekly bond price chart. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:48:15 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40955.html It was a very, very wild day today. We saw weak action late on Friday. It figured to mean we'd likely see lower this morning in terms of those pre-market futures. Sometimes you get a clue from how a day closes and what takes place on the futures right away after hours. We saw the weak close and the futures move down some as well. So today would be weak for sure, right? Wrong. Strong futures simply got stronger as the morning went along. We blasted higher once the marked opened, and then things got very interesting. We kept running higher. The first two sixty-minute sticks suggested the market would hold up for the day. That reality lasted until we saw the 2pm hour hit. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:43:16 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40954.html What complete BS the Futures are! We started out last night, at 6pm, with the Dow Futures right at 15,000, flat to Friday's close. However, MIRACULOUSLY, by Asia's close at 4am, we were back to 15,130 (Friday's high) and you have to be high if you could read the weekend headlines we were going over in early morning Member Chat and thought that kind of move was justified! We concluded that oil futures (/CL) would be the best short at a ridiculous $98.50 so we called that line and, already, less than two hours later (8:17), we're back at the $98 line with $500 per contract profits! Maybe we should just take the rest of the week off and quit while we're ahead. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:37:28 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40953.html By Andrey Dashkov, Research Analyst: The junior resource sector is struggling financially, something most investors seem to agree on – and rightly be wary of. Here at Casey Research, we've analyzed both producers and explorers to see how profitable (or value-adding) they may be under current market conditions. The rather obvious conclusion, shared by many company executives, is that now is the time to be frugal. Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:29:59 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40952.html There is no doubt about it. Precious Metal mining companies are going through a time of testing. The financing markets are challenging. Investors have lost faith in the major gold and silver producers who have over-promised and under-delivered in high cost projects in questionable jurisdictions. Acquisition strategies have been poorly executed near interim tops at high valuations. Some could say it is the worst of times for this sector. However, long term contrarian investors say that the worst of times may be the best time to find the top junior mining situations for the next upturn. Mon, 17 Jun 2013 17:53:10 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40951.html India's relentless search for hydrocarbons to fuel its booming economy has managed the rather neat diplomatic trick of annoying Washington, delighting Tehran and intriguing Baghdad, all the while leaving the Indian Treasury fretting about how to pay for its oil imports, given tightening sanctions on fiscal dealings with Iran. Mon, 17 Jun 2013 17:43:29 +0200 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40950.html Over the last several weeks I’ve received a lot of e-mails asking about gold. Half want to know if they can buy gold and/or gold stocks here, and the other half are demanding a pronouncement as to whether or not the bull market in gold is over. After all, if you hear it on Bloomberg from Betty Liu it must be true! Personally I don’t like it when the mainstream media tries to make the news instead of simply reporting the news. Unfortunately, we’ve been conditioned to let the media do our thinking for us and that includes everything from who should be President to which stock we should buy. Edward R. Murrow must be turning over in his grave as he stares down and listens to what passes for news today. Mon, 17 Jun 2013 17:39:44 +0200