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13 Investment Themes for 2015 - 29th Jan 15
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 29, 2015

13 Investment Themes for 2015 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: John_Mauldin

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” says my friend Gary Shilling as he kicks off today’s Outside the Box. He’s referring to his investment themes for 2015. He first gives us 11 reasons to continue favoring long Treasury bonds. That’s an obvious play for him if you know his view, but it’s nevertheless a compelling one this year and one that you should think through, given the specter of deflation about in the world, the firing up of QE in Japan and Europe (which gives folks money to buy … Treasurys), and the safe-haven status of the US dollar.

Gary’s reason #9 for buying Treasurys is that “The odds of a near-term Fed rate hike are receding. He sees any Fed rate increase being pushed out “as the deflationary effects of the oil price plunge sink in and investors – and the Fed – realize that foreign central bank stimuli amount to Fed tightening [in relative terms].”

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Currencies

Thursday, January 29, 2015

The Raging Currency Wars Across Europe / Currencies / Currency War

By: Gary_Dorsch

The theater of the absurd became even more bizarre on Jan 22nd, when the European Central bank <ECB,> desperate to extract the Euro-zone’s economy from the quagmire of deflation and stagnation, decided it would try its hand at the magic elixir of “quantitative easing,” (Q€). Starting on March 1st, the ECB will inject 60-billion of liquidity into the Euro-zone’s money markets, each month until the end of Sept 2016. The ECB is the last of the Big-4 central banks to unleash the nuclear option of central banking – QE, - starting about six years after the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Fed began flooding the world markets with $7-trillion of British pounds, Japanese yen and US$’s.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Increasing Demand For Refined Products Will Increase Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Dan Steffens writes: In last week's article I posted a chart from the International Energy Agency'srecent Oil Market Report that shows global demand for refined products catching up to supply by the 3rd quarter of this year. My opinion is that all of the analysts who are now blaming the sharp drop in oil prices on a "glut" of supply could change their tune quickly as consumers adjust to lower fuel costs. Just as higher costs reduce demand for any commodity, lower costs will increase demand. This is especially true for a commodity that has a direct impact on standard of living, like oil does.

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Currencies

Thursday, January 29, 2015

The End of Currency 'Safe-Havens' / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Swiss - Negative rates

In the past [even the recent past] investors have often 'parked' their funds in a 'safe-haven' currency, when fears about the dollar or other currencies rose. The leading candidates have always been the Swiss Franc and the Yen, with gold, in the last three years usually being excluded, because of its declining trend against the dollar and the limited amount of stock relative to the availability of these currencies. While gold's trend seems to have changed to the upside now, the developed world is still 'out of gold'.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Are You Sure You Want to Delete This? / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Dennis_Miller

As I sat in my office with tears streaming down my cheeks, my wife walked in and asked, “What’s wrong?”

After a short sniffle, I blurted out, “I just deleted Dad!” The absurdity of my remark hit us both, and we burst out laughing. Dad had been dead for over two years.

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Politics

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Ron Paul on U.S. Fed, Central Bankers Monetary Psychopaths / Politics / Central Banks

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Over the last 100 years the Fed has had many mandates and policy changes in its pursuit of becoming the chief central economic planner for the United States. Not only has it pursued this utopian dream of planning the US economy and financing every boondoggle conceivable in the welfare/warfare state, it has become the manipulator of the premier world reserve currency.

As Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained to me, the once profoundly successful world currency – gold – was no longer money. This meant that he believed, and the world has accepted, the fiat dollar as the most important currency of the world, and the US has the privilege and responsibility for managing it. He might even believe, along with his Fed colleagues, both past and present, that the fiat dollar will replace gold for millennia to come. I remain unconvinced.

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Politics

Thursday, January 29, 2015

EU Threatens Russia, Greece Pivots to Russia as War in Ukraine Intensifies / Politics / Ukraine Civil War

By: GoldCore

EU foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels today to discuss imposing further sanctions on Russia following an upsurge in fighting in east Ukraine.

A new poll shows 80 percent of Russians would give up Western food for a stronger economy. Reuters

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Stocks Suffered Some Further Losses Following FOMC Decision Release / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

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Companies

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Why Microsoft Stock Will Provide Major Investing Returns / Companies / Microsoft

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: On January 26, software giant Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) announced a disappointing quarter that sent Microsoft stock reeling by 10% on three times its normal trading volume.

It was the second major technology "miss" Wall Street had to digest in the last week's time, coming after a disastrous earnings release by IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM).

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Politics

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Exploring the Clash Within Civilizations - Mind the Gap / Politics / Religion

By: STRATFOR

Jay Ogilvy writes: The Charlie Hebdo attack and its aftermath in the streets and in the press tempt one to dust off Samuel Huntington's 1996 book, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. Despite the criticisms he provoked with that book and his earlier 1993 article in Foreign Affairs, recent events would seem to be proving him prescient.

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Politics

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Doomsday Clock. There is no safe place. No where to hide! / Politics / Social Issues

By: Michael_T_Bucci

If I criticize the U.S. government, I am put on a "watch list". If I quote an Israeli, I am attacked by anti-Zionists. If I defend the Palestinians, I am an anti-Semitic. If I defend the police, I am considered an apologist of police brutality. If I defend unarmed black kids shot by copes, I am an enemy of the police. If I defend the rights of Islamists, I am a promoter of "terrorism". If I quote the Pope, I am the target of anti-clerics in Europe. If I quote a "New Atheist", I am a spokesman for Satan. If I propose gun regulation, I will be threatened by NRA people. If I defend the right to own and carry guns, I will be labeled a "2nd Amen" fanatic by liberals. If I agree with Ron Paul, I am an anarchist. If I agree with Bernie Sanders, I am a communist. If I say Vladimir Putin is a tyrant, I am considered brainwashed by Western propaganda. If I claim Putin never invaded Ukraine, I am an anti-American. If I warn of a market collapse and Great Great Depression, I am a Cassandra. If I predict the DOW hitting 20,000 in four months, I am a paid agent for Wall Street. If I claim Charlie Hedbro promoted racism, I am an enemy of free speech. If I defend free speech, I am told to shut-up. If I decide to take to the North Woods until the wars spend themselves, I am an escapist. If I jump into the morass and voice one opinion about one topic...well...considering what I know and have just outlined...I would be a damn fool, wouldn't I!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Fed Market Friendly As Usual.... Stock Market Caring Less And Less.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

If you've noticed over the past many weeks and really two to three months, the market hasn't had the ability to break out to new highs. We've seen dramatic, if not historical, measures taken by the ECB with regards to unprecedented levels of free bank cash with a new QE program of over one trillion per year, not to mention that it is open ended. We've seen our Fed, Ms. Yellen, today say rates will stay low. That she has the markets back. Of course, those aren't her exact words, but they sure are implied, and the market knows it. The markets initial reaction, as always, was to try higher. It always tries higher. This time higher didn't hold. More and more measures are being taken globally to prop up markets and their respective economies, but the measures taken are having less of a positive effect.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Saudi Arabia Changes Kings, But Not its Oil Policy / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Last Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” to discuss the new Saudi King Salman and his impact on oil prices.

The interview was set up on a flight back to Pittsburgh, and took place via satellite feed almost as soon as I landed.

Now, these hastily put together appearances can be somewhat trying if the anchors are not up to speed on the material.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Stock Market Breakdown! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has broken beneath previous lows, giving another confirmed sell signal. I had expected an attempt at the highs late this afternoon, but liquidity is the lowest ever in the futures markets for a FOMC day. This morning’s Minute Wave [ii] top may actually be the Primary Cycle pivot.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Crude Oil Price Bulls vs. Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.55% after mixed U.S. data weakened the greenback. As a result, light crude climbed above $46, but the nearest resistance still keeps gains in check. Will we see higher values of the commodity in the coming days?

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