Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Qualcom Stock Market Harbinger - 12th Aug 22
Apple Exec Gets World's 1st iPhone 14 for Daughters 14th Birthday Surprise Present Unboxing! - 12th Aug 22
Steps to remember while playing live roulette online - 12th Aug 22
China Bank Run Protests - Another Potential Tiananmen Square Massacre? - 11th Aug 22
Silver Coin Premiums – Another Collapse? - 11th Aug 22
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Heading Lower – Setup Like 1989-03 - 11th Aug 22
Severe Stocks Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%? - 11th Aug 22
There's a Hole in My Bucket Dear Liza, UK Summer Heatwave Plants Watering Problem Song - 11th Aug 22
Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis - 9th Aug 22
FREETRADE Want to LEND My Shares to Short Sellers! - 8th Aug 22
Stock Market Unclosed Gap - 8th Aug 22
The End Game for Silver Shenanigans... - 8th Aug 22er
WARNING Corsair MP600 NVME2 M2 SSD Are Prone to Failure Can Prevent Systems From Booting - 8th Aug 22
Elliott Waves: Your "Rhyme & Reason" to Mainstream Stock Market Opinions - 6th Aug 22
COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! - 6th Aug 22
WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING - 5th Aug 22
Recession Is Good for Gold, but a Crisis Would Be Even Better - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Rallying On Slowly Thinning Air - 5th Aug 22
SILVER’S BAD BREAK - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Trend Pattren 2022 Forecast Current State - 4th Aug 22
Should We Be Prepared For An Aggressive U.S. Fed In The Future? - 4th Aug 22
Will the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks? - 4th Aug 22
Stock Market Another Upswing Attempt - 4th Aug 22
What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? - 4th Aug 22
The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 - 3rd Aug 22
The ‘Wishful Thinking’ Fed Is Anything But ‘Neutral’ - 3rd Aug 22
Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing - 3rd Aug 22
Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" - 31st July 22
Gold Stocks’ Rally Autumn 2022 - 31st July 22
US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation - 31st July 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What Does Wave Theory Say About U.S. Treasuries?

Interest-Rates / US Bonds Nov 08, 2011 - 02:02 AM GMT

By: Glenn_Neely

Interest-Rates

This article is Part 3 of a 3-part interview series with Glenn Neely, founder and president of NEoWave Institute.  In these 3 interviews, conducted by blogger Bud Fox, Glenn Neely looks ahead at 3 specific trading markets (Euro, Gold, and Treasuries) through the lens of Wave structure and explores what Wave theory tells us about the next 5-10 years.


Bud:    This is Bud Fox, author of www.GreedAndMoney.com, a blog that specializes in US equity index trading.  In our last interview, “Gold Futures Through a NEoWave Lens,” we discussed Gold and where you see it going in the short and long-term Wave structure perspective.  Our first interview, of course, covered the euro.  

The last question I have is another hot topic: T-Notes. The Treasury’s 10-year note actually hit 1.67% the week of September 18, which is the lowest yield in history. Investors who buy Treasuries now will have very little return. Anyone who purchased previously continues to see values go up.

My question is, do you expect Treasuries to crash and is this another bubble, or do you think Treasuries are in a bull market? On the other hand, how low can yields go? And how high does it need to go to generate a positive yield?

Glenn: The current, new uptrend began in July when yields were at 3% on the 10-year yield. In a matter of weeks yields reached 1.7%! Based on wave structure, Notes should hold up for an extended period. It took about two years for Waves-A & B to form, which means Wave C should unfold for about year.

This implies Notes will trend sideways-or-up for a year before reaching a potentially important top. A year or two from now, a major change in interest rates becomes possible. But, as long as the majority is concerned about the government “printing money” and propping up businesses, the uptrend in Notes should continue.

Despite the level of “spending and printing” the U.S. government has been involved in the last few years, the behavior of Notes indicates the international forces of deflation are even greater, which is why they are trending higher.

Bud:    In essence, you think that, at least for now, this is a legitimate bull market.

Glenn:   Yes.

Bud:    Ultimately, we will come down, but for now it’s not a bubble, even though everybody says it’s a bubble?

Glenn:   For at least a year Notes should move up or trend sideways (which means rates will trend sideways or lower). I wouldn’t fight this uptrend in Notes, but I wouldn’t necessarily buy Notes at this time either. But, if you are already in, being long notes and bonds is probably safe for the next year. You’re not going to get much interest out of them, but there is some potential for appreciation.

Bud:    Glenn, I really appreciate your time. That concludes my questions.

Glenn:   Thank you, Bud. Those were interesting questions and I enjoyed talking with you.

To view the first two posts in this 3-part interview series, please see What Do Wave Charts Say About the Euro? and Gold Futures Through a NEoWave Lens.

Founder of NEoWave Institute, Glenn Neely is internationally regarded as the premier Wave analyst. He has devoted more than 25 years to mastering Wave theory, stock market predictions, and successful trading. In 1990, Neely published his advanced Wave analysis process in his classic book, Mastering Elliott Wave. In the following decades, Neely continued to evolve Wave theory to make it objective, practical, and consistently accurate. This evolution produced NEoWave technology – a precise, step-by-step assessment of market structure, which results in low-risk, high-profit trading and investing. See for yourself: Subscribe to NEoWave’s 2-week Trial Service. Learn more Glenn Neely and NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services at www.NEoWave.com.

© 2010 Copyright  Glenn Neely - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in