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Hillary Wins, Trump Loses 1st Presidential Election Debate Confirmed by Betting Markets

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Sep 27, 2016 - 04:18 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

In my opinion Donald Trump clearly lost the debate, he literally came across at times as a spoilt brat, even as a cartoon figure whilst Hillary mostly came across as the responsible adult. So it looks like just as I warned was possible that Donald Trump could end up losing the election by failing to stick to a script, instead letting his mouth run rabid. He clearly just cannot control himself for more than a few minutes, and with 2 more debates to go means Hillary definitely has a fighting chance so this election certainly remains a close race right upto election night.


My forecast as illustrated by the following video is that Donald Trump's marginal actual lead (as opposed to the opinion polls) over Hillary Clinton that as long as he is trained by his advisors to control his mouth then he should continue to maintain the lead into election night.

Trump Election Win Forecast

And also see http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article56651.html

Given the tightness of the race, and with the 7 weeks to go then it definitely looks like I will have to come back with an update to my forecast closer to election night.

The betting markets also agree that Donald Trump lost the debate as illustrated by Betfair.

At the start of the debate at 2am BST the Betfair market was offering 2.88 to back Trump, against Clinton 1.57 for Clinton.

Now after the debate, some 2 hours on the odds have shifted in Hillary's favour as Betfair is now offering 3.35 on Trump and1.44 on Hillary. A significant widening which brings to a halt a month long trend that had been moving in Trumps favour.

So the effect of the 1st debate is to bring Trumps momentum train to a shuddering halt, and it remains to be seen if Trump can get the momentum going again especially as Hillary could repeat today's damage at the next 2 debates. However, as of today my forecast remains in tact that the most probable outcome is that Trump will win, even though Hillary would make the better President.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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