The Dow flirted with 20k this week, hitting a high of 19,966, literally within a few points of claiming the historic 20k level along its relentless bull market path. If one looks back to not just the start of 2016, but, well right up until AFTER the US polls closed on November 8th and beyond then its not just a case of Dow 20k could never happen but that the Dow 'should' by now be trading at well BELOW 15k. Whilst a few of the perma crowd had completely flipped imagining the Dow could trade down to as low as 6k! I suppose that's where the Dow needs to trade for some guys and gals just to BREAKEVEN after year after year of beartish rhetoric.

Whilst my consistent view all year is that the Dow would trade to a series of new highs during the second half of 2016 and that ultimately the Dow targeted a trend to 20k, which my analysis of 14th November concluded could occur BEFORE the end of this year!

See my series of videos for taste of this years analysis and with more plenty articles in my articles archive (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Nadeem_Walayat.html).

26th Jan 2016 - Dow 16,093

2nd March 2016 - Dow 16,685

17th May 2016 - Dow 17,710

7th August 2016 - Dow 18,500

19 Nov 2016 - Dow 18,905 - Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000!

Now I know you all want me to promptly trundle out my forecast conclusion for the Dow for 2017. However, I think now is good time to remind my readers and viewers of my videos that my forecast conclusions are the SUM of ALL of analysis. If I just relied on technical analysis then honestly I would likely only be marginally more accurate than most of the other newsletter and trading service peddlers out there. Which is why I don't pander to a subscriber base because I know, I KNOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS A RED HERRING! Look TA is highly convincing, highly seductive but on its own its not going to let one arrive at that which is the most probable! As its highly subjective! Its very, very easy to make TA fit a point of view even if you try hard not to do that!

So I don't approach forecasts from TA, rather that tends to the the LAST step. So there are 3 key elements to arriving at that which is most probable which I have often voiced, especially when I've gone off on the deep end on one of my tangents for as far that train of thought takes me down whilst readers prompt me that they want a forecast of where the Dow or, x,yz is likely to go.

1. The Mega-trends. If I don't understand the mega-trends then I may as well just play pin the tail on the donkey for no matter how good my technical analysis is it won't be better than a coin toss. Which is why I obsesses over the mega-trends such as inflation, debt, machine intelligence, climate change, geopolitics etc...

2. Put My Money Where My Mouth is - To arrive at a probable conclusion I need to actually want to seek to commit my own funds to that market at the outset. If I do analysis on a market where I never intended to invest then unless it is a very related market i.e. precious metals, or different country stock markets then I am not going to have that extra edge, that extra incentive to really, really want to know.

3. Technical Analysis - This is my LAST analysis step, I don't even want to think about the charts until I have worked through the above steps, and since I don't pander to a paid subscriber base I do tend to go silent on markets from time to time until I see an unfolding opportunity to profit from. Now again, unlike the vast majority of analysts out there, I am SKEPTICAL OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS! There is NO Black Box, Proprietary indicators or holy grail that works! Those that tell you such are bullshitting you! Technical analysis is just that a skill at using technical tools, like driving a car is a technical skill, however without knowing where your going, then your just going to get lost! Which is what apparently happens to most analysts, they get lost in technical analysis! yes it all looks and sounds very convincing but they could have saved themselves a hell of a lot of time by just flipping a coin! I should know I have tested it! A coin toss vs technical analysis result in similar outcomes and that's for someone who deem themselves as being very experienced at TA! So you can well understand why most analysts fail to even beat a coin toss !

So in advance of my Dow stock market forecast for 2017, I will once more be meandering down a mega-trend lane. Trumps Coming War on China. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this mega-trend analysis shortly in your email in box as well as the stock and other market detailed trend analysis that will follow it.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Comments

mydan
17 Dec 16, 16:58

Thank you

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts on analysis of the markets. . You are one of the top and most accurate forecasters in the World Wide Web

Daniel

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