Most Popular
1. Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs - 21st Feb 22
2.Putin Starts WW3 in Ukraine, Will Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons, China Prepares Taiwan Blitzkrieg - 28th Feb 22
3.World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War! - 25th Feb 22
4.INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! - 10th Feb 22
5.Will There Be A 2024 US Presidential Election? - 3rd Mar 22
6.Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot - 6th Feb 22
7.Why Putin Wants the WHOLE of Ukraine - World War 3 Untended Consequences - 6th Feb 22
8.Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 - 19th Feb 22
9.Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm - 4th Mar 22
10.M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance - 7th Mar 22
Last 7 days
Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order - 24th May 22
Globalists Convene to Plan Central Bank Digital Currencies - 24th May 22
After Recent Highs, What’s Next for the Gold Junior Miners? - 24th May 22
Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - 21st May 22
Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? - 21st May 22
Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks - 21st May 22
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 20th May 22
US Real Estate Investors – Is There An End In Sight? - 20th May 22
How Technology Affected the Gaming Industry - 20th May 22
How To Set And Achieve Reasonable Goals For Your Company - 20th May 22
How Low Could the Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Fall? - 19th May 22
Bitten by FANG? Clocked by Cryptos? -- 'Air Pockets' Everywhere - 19th May 22
Northern General Hospital Orthopedics Fractures and and Ankle Clinic Consultations Real Patient Experience - 19th May 22
Cathie Wood Goes All in on Teladoc, ARKK INSANE Noob Investing Strategy! - 17th May 22
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market - 17th May 22
What Should We Do If There Is No Fed Monetary Policy Pivot? - 17th May 22
All Possible Ways to Earn Free Litecoin - 17th May 22
How low Could the Amazon Stock Price Fall? - 16th May 22
Cathy Wood ARKK INSANITY There is NO Coming Back! - 16th May 22
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH - 16th May 22
Sanctions, trade wars worsen US inflation - 16th May 22
AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - 14th May 22
Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO - 14th May 22
How to Get Kaspersky Internet Security for 80% Discount! Do not Pay Renewal Price! - 14th May 22
Sagittarius A* Super Massive Black Hole Monster at Centre of Our Galaxy REVEALED! - 14th May 22
UK Public Debt Smoking Inflation Gun - 13th May 22
What Happens When the Stock Market Dip Keeps Dipping? - 13th May 22
Biden Seeks Inflation Scapegoats; Gold Advocate Wins GOP Primary - 13th May 22
Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - 12th May 22
The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall - 12th May 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Theresa May's Political Spectrum Impact on the UK General Election 2017

ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 31, 2017 - 05:42 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

For at least the past 30 years, Leaders and parties that most closely appeal to the centre ground tend to win UK general elections. Which is why Labour repeatedly lost election after election during the 1980's and most of the 1990's because whilst Margaret Thatcher was to the right of the political spectrum, Labour was far further to the left and it would take a long hard battle fought by first Neil Kinnock and then John Smith who paved the way for Tony Blair to firmly occupy the centre ground for the next 13 years, even delivering Tony Blair several landslide election victories that Theresa May hopes to replicate.


Left or Right of Tory Centre

David Cameron was clearly to the left of the Tory centre, which explains why he got on so well with Nick Clegg, because they really did have a lot in common and if circumstances had been a little different David Cameron could well have found himself to be a Liberal Democrat. Whilst John Major's weak premiership mostly occupied the centre ground and definetly to the left of Margaret Thatcher, and he may well have done bother had been less grey. Still he did shock all with his surprise election win in 1992, that the pollsters got very badly wrong.

So where does Theresa May stand on the political spectrum?

Firstly, BrExit means nationalism and protectionism which is what the Tory manifesto alludes to and Theresa May repeats when she says that she would be willing to walk away from a bad EU deal i.e. No deal. Therefore Theresa May will be the most nationalist and protectionist Prime Minister for a good 50 years! Which nudges her to the right of Margaret Thatcher on this respect which appeals to the likes of the Tory right and UKIP.

Whilst on the other hand the Tory Manifesto is clearly more aimed at redistributing wealth from the wealthy i.e. forcing wealthy pensioners receiving care in their own homes for their their properties to no longer be exempt, and at the same time raising the threshold of protected assets from £23k to £100k which benefits the poorer pensioners, all of which suggests that Theresa May is left of Tory centre on social policies, even though she has backtracked a little since publication of the manifesto by stating that there would be a yet to be determined cap on how much each pensioner assets / homes would fund their social care.

So apart from BrExit, the 84 page manifesto appears it could be have been written by Tony Blair, David Cameron, or even Ed Milliband as the BrExit vote killed off austerity a year ago, and so there were lots of promises to spend more but without any tax rises to pay for them, hence a lot more borrowing, so basically the same centrist policies as Blair. Which is probably why Theresa May appeals to so many Labour brexiteers. And she is protectionist / nationalist rather than globalist, as have been every Prime Minster since the 1970's, which explains why she appeals so strongly to most UKIP voters.

Theresa May's words, actions and policies are hovering up many Labour and most UKIP voters whilst maintaining the Tory heartland, for they have nowhere else to go, hence why she is heading for strong election victory, regardless of what the gyrating all over the place opinion polls suggest as illustrated by YoGovs most recent poll warning of a Hung Parliament.

So whilst Theresa May is a little right of centre than David Cameron, which on face value would have suggested that she would do worse than David Cameron had in 2015. However the whole political spectrum has swing slightly further to the right since May 2015, which is why BrExit happened in the wake of year after year of out of control EU migration that both Labour and the Tory party ignored for more than a decade and which sowed the seeds for the BrExit outcome that will carry Theresa May far beyond the threshold set by David Cameron.

And then we have Jeremy Corbyn who has swung the Labour party far to the left of the centre ground that Tony Blair so successfully occupied. He may not be as far left as Michael Foot of 1983, but Labour has definitely gone back to the 1980's which further confirms that Theresa May should be heading for a very strong election victory.

And here are the seats per party forecasts based on the local election results and the opinion pollsters

UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017

Opinion Polls Based UK General Election Seats Per Party Forecast 2017

Opinion Polls Based UK General Election Seats Per Party Forecast 2017

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for the next analysis in this series as I countdown to my UK general election 2017 final forecast conclusion and to our youtube channel for videos in this and the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in