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Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Current State

Commodities / Crude Oil Oct 01, 2018 - 06:20 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

Here is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018.

Firstly a recap of my forecast for the crude oil price for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.


Crude Oil Forecast 2018

01 Jan 2018 - Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next?

Oil is clearly in a bull market and thus I expect the bullish trend to continue and would not be surprised if we see crude oil break above $80 during the year!

My update of late February reaffirmed the $80 target despite the then deep 15% drop.

27 Feb 2018 - Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

CONCLUSION

Therefore the crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so with-in the high of $67 and a low of $58. Thus given that the oil price is currently at $64 is near resistant then the oil price should soon reverse lower to target $58 which is likely to be the trend for most of March 2018 before the next assault on the high as my longer term 2018 forecast for a $80 crude oil price remains in tact.

Whilst my last look at the crude oil price on 20th April again confirmed my expectations for crude oil to hit $80 between August and September 2018.

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO

FORECAST CONCLUSION

The crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so within the high of $69 and a low of $61. Whilst my 2018 forecast for a target high of $80 remains intact and which now looks set to be achieved between late August and early September. So I don't expect the Saudi's to get their $100 crude oil price to dump ARAMCO IPO stock on the market this year. Still if the Saudi's time it right they could sell ARAMCO stock whilst the crude oil price is trading near $80.

So here we stand at the end of September with the crude oil price trading at $73 off of its recent high of $76, within touching distance of my $80 forecast target for 2018.

Charts courtesy of https://stockcharts.com

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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