May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis
Politics / BrExit Dec 10, 2018 - 04:35 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May's government is now certain to lose the critical vote in the House of Commons on her "EU Withdrawal Act" at around 6pm on Tuesday the 11th of December 2018. Theresa May requires 320 MP's to vote for her deal to get it through the House of Commons, with the mainstream media consensus pointing towards Theresa May only being able to secure support from between 190 to 240 MP's, the wide range as a consequence of 50 undecided Tory MP's. Therefore the level of uncertainty presents a betting markets opportunity.
Firstly, the following video charts how we got here from the triggering of Article 50 to the present crisis state, a trend trajectory that has put Britain literally on the path towards civil war!
Betting Markets
So what odds are the betting markets offering for Tuesdays vote in respect of the mainstream press's wide range of expectations of 190 to 240 votes for May's Brexit Deal.
The Betfair market is clearly favouring Theresa May securing 199 or less votes. Which is still offering a good price of 4.0, that would translate into a £30 win for every £10 bet. But is 199 votes or fewer the most probable outcome?
Analysis from Sky News is also strongly pointing in that direction i.e. a sub 200 result.
The betting market ranges currently on offer are :
<= 199 = 4.0
200-209 = 8.6
210-219 6.5
220-229 = 6
230-239 = 11.5
So from a starting base of 180 MP's, how many of the 48 undecided's would vote for Theresa May's deal?
50% would result in 204. Whilst 100% would result in 228, that would represent 87 Tory MP's voting against their government.
Personally, given everything I have seen over the past month, I would be leaning more towards 100% of the remaining MP's voting for Theresa May's plan therefore the most probable result is likely to be in the 220-229 range, which carry's a risk reward of 5-1, i.e. £50 potential profit for every £10 bet.
However, a word of caution, if SKY News is wrong in it's analysis then the actual result could be higher than 230. Which therefore supports my view to go for the maximum of 100% of undecided's. For instance if I were not aware of the Sky New's analysis then I would estimate the number of Tory MP voting for the deal at around 236.
Anyway, we will soon find out in about 42 hours time.
What Happens After the Vote?
My long standing view is that Theresa May's days are numbered, so she would either do the right thing and resign or be forced to resign after such an humiliating defeat which would open the way for a prominent Brexiteer to take the helm as I covered in the following video:
My personal favourite to take over is David Davis, but I doubt he would win, so any brexiteer would do except Michael Gove!
Also there remains a possibility that Theresa May facing such a large defeat on Tuesday may yet pull the vote. However, as of writing No 10 continues to insist that the vote will go ahead on Tuesday.
The bottom line is that Britain remains on a trend trajectory to LEAVE the EU without an Exit Deal, as I have been consistently stating since Article 50 was triggered in March 2017.
- The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War
- The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win
Your Analyst
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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