Chinese Family Fleeing Wuhan Bring CoronaVirus to UK - Pandemic Outbreak Day 54
Politics / Pandemic Jan 31, 2020 - 06:18 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The primary conduit for the spread of the virus are Chinese people fleeing a collapsing healthcare system in China which has resulted in the inevitable, Britain's first cases of Coronavirus as a Chinese family arriving into the UK on Wednesday 29th January, virtually on arrival at their York hotel called paramedics that they were infected and thus began Britain's first virus outbreak. This is likely the first of many such occurrences of Chinese families having fled chinese virus hotspots to burden western healthcare systems as they fear a near death sentence in their own country due to the magnitude of the outbreak in their nation that their selfish actions now seek to replicate elsewhere.
Even more worrying is that the NHS kept the outbreak secret from the public for a good 48 hours, which potentially allowed the virus to spread. Though there were reports out of York that staff at Staycity hotel popular with chinese visitors had been busy disinfecting a room of a suspected coronavirus case mid week, without any information from the authorities.
The bottom line is that all those flying out of China to the UK and elsewhere over the past week are putting uninfected nations at risks of outbreak. Their selfish actions are what will spread the virus across the globe.
CoronaVirus Outbreak Trend Forecast
My analysis concluded forecast expectations for the virus to spread exponentially first across China and then across the world to target 1 million infections by the end of February resulting in 35,000 deaths.
Forecast youtube Video : https://youtu.be/c1rXvXMD3jc
Latest youtube video update as of Pandemic Day 53.
As the graph illustrates the trend trajectory forecast infections to only really start taking off globally mid February when the number of infections are expected to exceed 100,000 and deaths 2,500. So we are still some 11 days away from when the Coronavirus pandemic really starts to take off. Which means that the world has a short window of opportunity to act to limit the spread of the virus.
Unfortunately the worlds governments are doing the exact opposite, where even at this stage are actively flying home potentially infected nationals, with a flight of some 200 British nationals being brought to the UK tomorrow. No matter what the government states, the British government just as the Chinese government before it will NOT be able to contain infections from such flights as it only takes 1 person to start an epidemic in the UK which has now transpired.
Instead it would have been far better to isolate suspected infections rather than to transport to infection free areas!. Thus I am afraid the actions of most Governments will contribute to the spread of the virus and thus the forecast trend trajectory remains very highly probable.
Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 54 - 31st Jan 2020 Update
The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 31st of January 2020 vs actual:
| Infections | Deaths | |
| Forecast - 31st Jan | 7854 | 275 |
| Actual - 31st Jan | 9700 | 213 |
| % Diiff | 123% | 78% |
Were this trend to continue into the end of February 2020 then the number of infected would increase to 1.23 million, whilst the number of deaths would fall to 27,000. So the latest data implies a wider spread but a lower mortality rate.
However, these are still the very early days of the spread of the Coronavirus, especially given that there are large susceptible populations groups with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India that announced it's first infection today where outbreaks could soon overwhelm heathcare systems. Also that a vaccine is still a good 4 months away. far too late to have any impact on this pandemic.
Meanwhile this is what China and asia's infections map looks like, a harbinger of what to expect when the virus travels into uninfected populations.
Contrary to all of the measures taken by the Chinese to limit it's spread the virus has now spread to the whole of China which means it cannot be contained and is only a matter of time before it goes global at roughly the same rate of spread.
Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020
We can all dream about SIlver outpacing Gold. However the truth about Silver is that it tends to under perform during precious metals bull markets, and only really coming alive in the bull markets final stages when it tends to spike. So Silver for 2019 did what Silver tends to do which is to under perform against Gold. Though in reality maybe investors tend to set their hopes too high, as a gain of 15% for the year is still pretty good going against Gold up 19%.
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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