Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends

Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends Nov 10, 2021 - 03:02 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.


This year we got our strong July and a strong August which was contrary to the bull markets usual pattern. Which means that whilst the bull market has had a tendency to go against it's longer term seasonal trend by moving higher during September, nevertheless the strong August likely sows the seeds for a weak September. Then it's a case of off to the races for a Strong October, even stronger November and more gains in December courtesy of Santa all before a weak January and February.

So the seasonal pattern points to a window of opportunity spanning September and likely into Mid October to allow one to pick up stocks trading at a discount of sorts hence my original plan to buy back stocks after the October low, following which the bull trend is expected to resume into the end of the year. Especially take note of November strengthening over time which looks like the santa rally starting earlier each year as investors attempt to preempt exposure and thus December has been gradually losing it's stock market lustre to November. So one should want to be positioned BEFORE the start of November else be chasing after rising stock prices all month long.

Though note If what we have seen is THE BULL MARKET TOP then well we won't get a Santa rally, what we probably will get is a stock market bouncing around in a trading range repeatedly off or near the October lows. It's going to be an interesting next few months, imagine the shock on market participants if come December stocks aren't trading much off their October lows and perhaps nudging below from time to time.

Short-term Seasonal Trend

Short-term seasonal pattern for the past 2 years has been fairly robust, i.e. higher lows all the way! This years high going into the correction season came Mid August which therefore means there is not much time left for more downside price action before a counter trend rally, thus stocks should bottom fairly soon for a rally of sorts. Now to achieve a low around Mid October the rally would need to be pretty brief in terms of time. How likely is this pattern to unfold? The early October rally appears to be too brief to seem natural, thus we may get the rally starting earlier and continuing a little later into October which therefore suggests the final sell off continuing deeper into the 2nd half of October, maybe into the end of October so as to spread the trend out into a more natural price pattern.

This article was an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis on the prospects for the stock market into Mid 2022 see - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Including access to my most recent extensive analysis updating AI stocks buying levels as we head into the year end stock market rally .

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing

Contents:
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
The China Syndrome
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
How Stagflation Effects Stocks
INTEL Bargain - 15.5% Discount Sale
Why Intel stock price dropped 15%?
FACEBOOK - 10% DIscount
IBM - 20% Discount
Amazon - 5% Discount
APPLE 4% Discount
AMD $136 on Route to $200
TSMC - $117
Microsoft $336
Google $2980, PE 28.7, EC 30.
Nvidia Leaves planet Earth - $299, PE of 106
Heads Up on NEW Potential Tech Stocks
AI Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels
AI Stocks Buying Plan B
FREE TRADE the Perfect Stocks and Shares ISA?
FREE SHARE FROM FREETRADE
High Risk Stocks Brief
Crypto's 20% Discount Event
Bitcoin Trend
Palladium Brief

And my latest analysis Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022, CHINOBLE! AI Stocks Buying Plan

  • UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum
  • The 2% Inflation SCAM, Millions of Workers take the Red Pill
  • Silver Previous Forecast Recap
  • Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver
  • Silver Supply and Demand
  • Silver vs US Dollar
  • Gold / Silver Ratio
  • SILVER Trend Analysis
  • Long-term Trend Analysis
  • Formulating a Trend Forecast
  • Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022
  • Silver Investing Strategy
  • SIL ETF - What About Silver Mining Stocks?
  • Gold Price Trend Brief
  • Why the CCP is Living on Borrowed Time and Needs a War
  • Understanding the Chinese Regime and What it is Capable Of
  • Guanxi
  • Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak
  • CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction!
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Investing Strategy
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Amendments
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • October Investing Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
  • Why China Could Crash Bitcoin / Crypto's!
  • My Next Analysis

My analysis schedule includes:

  • Silver Price Trend Analysis, AI Stocks Portfolio Update - Complete
  • Warning Crypto Markets Are About to Explode Higher!
  • How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

  • UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada - 15% done
  • US Dollar and British Pound analysis
  • Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your AI data preprocessing analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2021 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in