Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions

Economics / Recession 2023 Sep 04, 2023 - 10:28 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Apparently the yield curve inversion has a 100% hit rate, whenever a yield curve inverts it has always resulted in a recession.

Only problem is that it can take anywhere from 6 months to 3 years for the recession to materialise! Thus is another one of those nothing burgers that most analysts obsess over. For instance take the current inversion as of March 2022, those who swallowed the recession is coming mantra have been sat in money market accounts for the last 9 months whilst stocks such as META first doubled, then tripled and look set to quadruple, what kind of *****-A-Doodle-Doo indicator is the yield curve inversion? Which is why I don't tend to pay it much attention, given that it is pretty much useless in terms of investing.


The funny thing is that because a recession has NOT materialised the likes of Goldman Sachs are now proclaiming that this time is different! Which is actually more useful, i.e. expect the opposite of Goldman Sachs and you'll be right 9 times out of 10! Thus a recession is coming, not because of the inverted useless yield curve but because Goldman Sachs public propaganda tends to be false.

RECESSION ODDS

A recession is what's going to be needed to cool real inflation which the econofools will call deflation! There can be no deflation because CPLIE is FAKE! The real prices in an economy rarely fall, and then we have the GDP price deflator con which tends to be LOWER than CPLIE so that recessions can be statistically dodged! Economic activity is better measured by the EGF's on the Portfolio spreadsheet, when so many stocks are deeply in the red is warning of underlying recessionary forces at work and this from a basket of largely tech stocks, so limited in scope but still beats fake GDP! So as a rule subtract 1% to get a more accurate measure of GDP, which means today's annualised Q1 rate of 2% in reality is more like 1%. So when the US is reporting an annualised rate of less than 1% than that translates into economic contraction.

So on the official GDP measure it is highly probable that the US can dodge a recession i.e. 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth but if GDP slows to 0.5% that in reality will translate into contraction of 0.5%. What this means is that interest rates won't be coming down anytime soon no matter what CPLIE does as the Fed will point to positive (fake) GDP to maintain higher interest rates. Furthermore there is no big collapse to trigger a recession i.e. in 2000 it was the tech sector, 2008 the banks and housing market, 2020 was the shutdown, and today there is nothing on an economy wide scale that is actually collapsing to trigger a deep recession.

The rest of this extensive analysis Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, lock it in now at $5 as this will soon rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also gain access to my most recent analysis -

And gain access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich series/

Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide 2023

For Immediate first access to ahead of the curve analysis as my extensive analysis of the stock market illustrates (Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1), that continues on in the comments section of each posted article, all for just 5 bucks per month which is nothing, if you can't afford 5 bucks for month then what you doing reading this article, 5 bucks is nothing, if someone did what I am doing then I would gladly pay 5 bucks for it! Signup for 1 month for a taste of the depth of analysis that cannot be beat by those charging $100+ per month! I am too cheap! Hence the price for new signup's will soon rise to $7 per month so lock it in now, $5 per month is nothing for what you get access to so at least give it a try, read the comments, see the depth of analysis, you won't be sorry because i do do my best by my patrons, go the extra mile and then some.

S&P

Targeting 4600 Mid Summer 2023 Top.

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat lock it in before it rises to $7 per month for new signup's.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your trimmed the FOMO to buy the Dips analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in