Category: UK General Election
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 19, 2017
UK BrExit General Election 2017 - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get it Right? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As Britain counts down to voting in the general election on June 8th 2017, the opinion pollsters who have badly gotten virtually every major election wrong for at least the past 5 years have been busy putting up a propaganda smoke screen across the mainstream media from the BBC's Newsnight to the broadsheets, peddling propaganda of margins of error of between 2 to 4%, which means that they were right as the election results were within the margin of error. Whilst deliberately forgetting that the margin of error meant the difference between getting the election outcomes RIGHT or VERY BADLY WRONG! Thus making polls commissioned by the mainstream media propaganda machine at the cost of hundreds of millions of pounds WORTHLES! Literally even a coin toss would have proved far more reliable than the opinion polling industry.
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
Tory Landslide, Labour Bloodbath - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get a UK Election Right? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As Britain counts down to voting in the general election on June 8th 2017, the opinion pollsters who have badly gotten virtually every major election wrong for at least the past 5 years have been busy putting up a propaganda smoke screen across the mainstream media from the BBC's Newsnight to the broadsheets, peddling propaganda of margins of error and how they were only out by 2-4%. Whilst deliberately forgetting that the margin of error meant the difference between getting the election outcomes RIGHT or VERY BADLY WRONG! Thus making polls commissioned by the mainstream media propaganda machine at the cost of hundreds of millions of pounds WORTHLES! Literally even a coin toss would have proved far more reliable than the opinion polling industry.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
The Upsides and Risks of May's Snap UK Election Decision / Politics / UK General Election
By: STRATFOR
The decision by Prime Minister Theresa May to call a snap election took the United Kingdom somewhat by surprise. When word went out early Tuesday that she was to make an announcement an hour later, rumors about what she would say rumbled across the country, touching on everything from the possible death of the queen to the announcement of direct rule in Northern Ireland. The idea that she would call a snap election initially was dismissed in light of her previous flat denials, but once the other possibilities were eliminated, an election was all that could remain.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Theresa May Calls Snap BrExit UK General Election Capitalising on Crippled Labour Party / Politics / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May surprises everyone by calling a BrExit snap UK General Election on 8th June 2017. And this really is a surprise to all because previously she has repeatedly stated that she would not be calling an early general election. Instead in a statement today she made clear that her slender majority in the House of Commons was not large enough to secure a strong BrExit outcome for the United Kingdom.
Monday, May 18, 2015
Deconstruction of UK Election 2015 Result - Why Opinion Pollsters Got it Wrong / News_Letter / UK General Election
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter May 14th, 2015Issue # 9 Vol. 9
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Monday, May 18, 2015
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win? / News_Letter / UK General Election
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter May 1st, 2015Issue # 8 Vol. 9
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Monday, May 18, 2015
UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015 / News_Letter / UK General Election
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter April 15th, 2015Issue # 7 Vol. 9
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Monday, May 18, 2015
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse / News_Letter / UK General Election
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter April 1st, 2015Issue # 6 Vol. 9
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Monday, May 18, 2015
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? / News_Letter / UK General Election
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter Feb 28th, 2015Issue # 5 Vol. 9
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Monday, May 18, 2015
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others / News_Letter / UK General Election
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter Feb 28th, 2015Issue # 4 Vol. 9
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Friday, May 15, 2015
Why Opinion Pollsters Got UK Election 2015 Badly Wrong / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Barely a week ago the people of Britain were going to the polls in what was unanimously proclaimed by the mainstream media as a too close to call general election, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were virtually neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a a handful of seats ahead would still lose be default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared to be destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up to the polls closed at 10pm.
Thursday, May 14, 2015
Deconstruction of UK General Election 2015 Result - Why Opinion Pollsters Got it Wrong / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This time last week the people of Britain were going to the polls in what was unanimously proclaimed by the mainstream media as a too close to call general election, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were virtually neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a a handful of seats ahead would still lose be default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared to be destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up to the polls closed at 10pm. Instead, the reality proved to be the exact opposite as instead of the Ed Milliband walking into No 10 we had David Cameron texting the removal vans to do an about turn as he raced back to Downing Street before the locks were changed.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
UK Election 2015 Results Repercussions for America / Politics / UK General Election
By: John_Browne
The British General Election, on May 7th, was an epic in two respects. First, in spite of polls forecasting a hung parliament, David Cameron's Conservative Party was given unexpectedly large support, winning 331 seats, or 51 % for an overall majority of four,and showing once again the failure of left wing parties to make traction in Europe. Second, Nicola Sturgeon's Scottish Nationalists Party (SNP) swept the Labour Party aside in Scotland to achieve an unexpected landslide and rekindle Scottish pressure for independence and, with it, a threat to the continued cohesion of the United Kingdom. Likely there will be important long-term repercussions for the United States.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2015
UK House Prices Forecast Conservative Election Win 2015 - Video / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the opinion pollsters, academics, pseudo-analysts (journalists) and book makers ALL got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong right upto the close of the polls, who collectively forecast that the only workable outcome would be one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP. Instead the actual result surprised all by delivering an outright majority Conservative government that not even the exit poll forecast and which only became apparent after about 600 of the 650 results were declared.
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Pollsters Launch Inquiry into Worthless Wrong UK Election 2015 Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Survation, YouGov, Populous, ICM, Ipsos Mori, ComRes, Ashcroft and the rest regurgitated at length in the mainstream press ALL got their opinion polling for the UK general election badly wrong, not just a little wrong but to such an extent that they were forecasting the exact opposite in terms of which major party could go on to form the next government as illustrated by the most popular opinion polls to seats forecasting sites:
Monday, May 11, 2015
Why Labour Lost Election 2015, Who will be Next New Labour Leader? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Labour suffered its worst defeat in over 30 years, putting the party back to where it stood under the disastrous leadership of Michael Foot, and even worse when considering the blood bath in Scotland where the Labour party was born, which saw the Scottish Nationalists take every Labour seat bar 1. The election result has shocked about half the electorate whilst surprising the rest as what amounted to daily worthless opinion polls had led the nation to believe that this was a neck and neck election race, one in which where even if Labour had won far fewer seats than the Conservatives then Labour were still likely to go on and form next government as illustrated below:
Sunday, May 10, 2015
England's Voters Tell SNP Scottish National Socialists to STFU - UK Election Result Analysis / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For over a year the people of Britain have had Scottish nationalism, one of me, me, me, want, want, want, demand, demand, demand rammed down their throats, and seeing the Scottish Nationalists set to wipe out Labour in Scotland and also heavily promoting backing for a weak Milliband government in Westminister, that would be dancing to Alex Salmond's SNP tune at huge further detriment to England's hard working tax payers who already are forced to pick up the bill for a huge disparity in public spending per capita of over £2,000 per person per year. Said through the ballot box that enough is enough and VOTED NO to what would have amounted to an SNP dictatorship by voting for an Anti- Scottish National Socialism government into power in Westminister so as to completely neutralise the Labour bloodbath in Scotland, as Labour socialism would have been bad enough never mind Scottish National Socialism!
Sunday, May 10, 2015
The Guardian UK Election Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Guardian and the rest of the mainstream press have effectively wasted tens of millions of £'s on worthless opinion polls that got it so badly wrong that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party was most likely to be able to form the next government. This is an analysis of The Guardian's election seats forecasts that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.
Sunday, May 10, 2015
ElectionForecast.co.uk Seats Forecast vs Actual UK Election Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
'You know nothing' said Channel 4's John Snow to the opinion pollsters, all of whom got their polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the opposite of what actually came to pass in terms of which party would go on to form the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectionForecast.co.uk election seats forecasting site that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.
Saturday, May 09, 2015
Electoral Calculus UK Election 2015 Seats Forecast vs Actual Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
All of the opinion pollsters got their UK polling badly wrong to such an extent that they were forecasting the party that would end up losing by 100 seats as the one that stood the greatest probability of forming the next government. This article is an analysis of the popular ElectoralCalculus.co.uk election seats forecasting website that I tracked for 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote