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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Markets 2019

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 04, 2019

Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

These record US stock-market levels are very dangerous, riddled with extreme levels of euphoria and complacency.  Largely thanks to the Fed, traders are convinced stocks can rally indefinitely.  But stock prices are very expensive relative to underlying corporate earnings, with valuations back up near bubble levels.  These are classic topping signs, with profits growth stalling and the Fed out of easy dovish ammunition.

Stock markets are forever cyclical, meandering in an endless series of bulls and bears.  The latter phase of these cycles is inevitable, like winter following summer.  Traders grow too excited in bull markets, and bid up stock prices far higher than their fundamentals support.  Subsequent bear markets are necessary to eradicate unsustainable valuation excesses, forcing stock prices sideways to lower until profits catch up.

This latest bull market grew into a raging monster largely fueled by extreme Fed easing.  At its latest all-time record peak hit just this week, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) has soared 335.4% higher over 10.1 years!  That makes for the second-biggest and first-longest bull in US history, only possible because it gorged on $3625b of quantitative-easing money printing by the Fed over 6.7 years.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 04, 2019

S&P 500 Reversal Signals Becoming Apparent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Submissions

In the early parts of 2019, the biggest stories in the financial markets have become apparent in the S&P 500.  Corporate earnings seasons was initially expected to be problematic for several major industry sectors.  But quarterly earnings managed to outperform analyst expectations roughly 80% of the releases for the period and this helped propel the main U.S. stock benchmarks back toward record levels.

Near the end of the summer period in 2018, many equities analysts were beginning to think this was unlikely for 2019.  Target price projections for several sectors were revised lower, and this led to rising volatility where many of the market’s key tech stock names (i.e. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft) fell to new short-term lows.  In the periods which which followed, however, the S&P 500 has received a forceful round of dip-buying.  Very little in the way if technical price retracement has been visible, but this is not always the type of trend market watchers hope for in terms of long-term sustainability.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 01, 2019

How Close is the Stock Market From Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Now that most of the US Major Indexes have breached new all-time price highs, which we called over 5+ months ago, and many traders are starting to become concerned about how and where the markets may find resistance or begin to top, we are going to try to paint a very clear picture of the upside potential for the markets and why we believe volatility and price rotation may become a very big concern over the next few months.  Our objective is to try to help you stay informed of pending market rotation and to alert you that we may be nearing a period within the US markets where increased volatility is very likely.

Longer term, many years into the future, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting this upside price swing is far from over.  Our models suggest that price rotation will become a major factor over the next 12 to 15+ months – headed into the US Presidential election cycle of November 2020.  Our models are suggesting that the second half of this year could present an incredible opportunity for skilled investors as price volatility/rotation provide bigger price swings.  Additionally, our models suggest that early 2020 will provide even more opportunity for skilled traders who are able to understand the true price structure of the markets.  Get ready, thing are about to get really interesting and if you are not following our research or a member of our services, you might want to think about joining soon.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Why the Stock Market Rallied So Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Most market analysts didn’t expect the stock market to recover so fast, but if you knew how Elliott Wave works, you could have anticipated the current move.

  • What’s Next for the Stock Market
  • Understanding the Bigger Picture
  • E-Waves and Cycles
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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 29, 2019

S&P 500 at Last Year’s Record High, Will Stock Market Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks slightly extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, as investors reacted to the quarterly corporate earnings, better-than-expected economic data releases. The S&P 500 got very close to the September 21st record high again. Will it reach the new all-time high today?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.3-0.5% on Friday, slightly extending the uptrend, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index retraced all of its medium-term downward correction of 20.2% recently. The broad stock market's gauge is now less than 0.1% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,940, marked by the mentioned record high. The next resistance level is at 1,950. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,920, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,900.

The broad stock market retraced all of its December sell-off and it broke above the medium-term resistance level of around 2,900 recently. So is it still just a correction or a new medium-term uptrend? We may see an attempt at getting back to the record high. There have been no confirmed negative medium-term signals so far. The index got very close to its last October all-time high, as we can see on the daily chart:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 29, 2019

Stock Market Alarm bells? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The trend which started at 2346 could be close to making a final high before another significant correction begins.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield curve inversion panic, brexit panic, US economy in a downwards death spiral, bear market this that and the other. The mainstream media's doom and gloom expectations of a recession these past few weeks to resolve in an bear market has instead had stocks clambering towards achieving new all time highs! Though many bears technically or rather delusionally continue to cling onto stocks being in a bear market until they break to new all time highs.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Fed Pause Fuels New S&P Highs… Is It Real? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

I’m Mike Gleason and welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast.

A few weeks ago we heard the first half of an interview Money Metals president Stefan Gleason did during a recent 360 Gold Summit. Today we’ll hear part two of that interview. Stefan gives some important warnings to precious metals investors, discusses why he favors one of the precious metals over the others and also talks about some really important things to consider when selecting a precious metals dealer. Don’t miss the eye-opening conclusion of Stefan’s interview, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, the big headline in markets this week – the S&P 500 pushed to a new all-time high in nominal terms.

But is it a new high in real terms? Most in the financial media don’t want to ask that question. They would rather join their Wall Street sponsors in celebrating a new official record.

President Donald Trump certainly didn’t miss the opportunity to boast about the stock market’s strength under his watch.

Donald Trump: The stock market and our country from an economic standpoint is doing the best probably it's ever done. We're hitting new highs again. We've hit new highs, I guess, close to or over 100 times since I'm president from the time of the election.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 26, 2019

Are Stock Market’s Internals Sending Bearish Warnings? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

With the stock market at all-time highs, many market pundits have noted that relatively few stocks are making new highs. In their minds, this supports the bearish narrative that “relatively few stocks are holding this stock market rally together, and sooner or later the house of cards will come tumbling down”.

Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 26, 2019

Financial Stocks Setting Up An Island Top Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to scan the charts for setups and trigger to alert our followers, we’ve come across a setup that may be more ominous than what it appears.  Recently we’ve posted articles about how the SPY and the NQ have pushed into new all-time high price territory and how Gold is setting up for a momentum base that should launch precious metals to near highs.  We’ve also discussed how we believe the current upside price bias in the US stock markets should last another 10~35+ days before new price weakness sets up – possibly pushing prices lower in late May or early June 2019.

Our research team has been scanning the charts looking for anything that could give us an edge to the potential setup for this price weakness in the future.  We believe the Transportation Index and the Financials could be keys to understanding how far the upside rally can continue and when a price peak may begin to warn of a potential price top or rollover.

An Island Top is a pattern that sets up with an upside price gap followed by sideways price action above that gap.  In theory, this type of setup should promote the gap to be filled with downside price action before any further upside price move can continue.  Although, gaps to the upside are fairly common in strong uptrends.  Given the strength of the earnings data released early this week and the expectations that we have for some continued upside price bias over the next 10~35+ days, we are watching these Island Top formation in the Financials for any signs of weakness to alert our followers.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 26, 2019

SPX Goldilocks Now, But She’ll Be Vanquished / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us – in hindsight – that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous to be bullish on the Christmas Eve massacre low, right on up to the 50 day moving average, which was the original target.

After that I was compelled by the market’s technicals to be bullish for a drive to the SMA 200, and then 2815 resistance, and then… a top-test. I not only felt not righteous with these compulsions, I felt a little soiled. Hey, it’s just a human (as opposed to a newsletter writer/market commentator) talking about human feelings.

There is a difference between being contrary and willingly bullish and being compelled to be bullish. I don’t like the feeling of that second thing very much. Anyway, there is a gap and do you know what? Last summer’s rally filled a similar gap (not shown here) from late January 2018, proceeded upward into a nice bull trap, and then October happened. FYI. The bears were disoriented and thus pissed all last summer. But any self respecting bull trap would by definition piss the bears off because it’s the same psychology that traps the bulls, only in reverse.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Stock Market Due for 9-10% Pull Back? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The December 24-26 low in the stock market finished an E-Wave xyz bullish flag, which itself was likely an X wave of larger degree.  The move up to all time highs within only 4 months of a 20% pull back has been quite impressive. The xyz pattern is a very bullish e-wave pattern and the current Wave Y runs an abc type rally with “a” due in this general time frame. 

The 20-week low (“b”) is due around May 17-20 and it wouldn’t surprise me that an intermediate top forms shortly (within the next 1-4 trading sessions) and drops 9-10% into the mid May expected low. The 9 month top (“c” of Y) is due in early July and a move to above S&P 500 3100 would not surprise me at all, but like I said, a 9-10% pull back is likely first.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Dow Transportation Stocks Sector Is Testing Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The DOW Transportation Index continues to test resistance near $10,050 as earnings drive the NQ well past historical all-time highs.  Our interest in the Transportation Index is because it acts as a fundamental indicator for the US and global economies in terms of future transportation/shipping expectations.  When the Transportation Index rises, it is a good sign that business and consumers have faith in the future economy and the continued demand for goods to be supplied to retailers and distribution centers.

The fact that the TRAN is back to near December 2018 highs means we have reached an expected economic expansion level that equals that level just before Christmas 2018.  A continued rally would push expectations even higher going into the Summer months.  With earnings hitting the market hard today driving a strong rally in almost all the major US stock indexes, we are surprised that the TRAN did not move a bit higher on the news.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The ES and NQ are very close to breaking out to new all-time highs this week and possibly over the next few weeks.  The NQ is very close to these new high levels already.  Traders must not take this move for granted as increased volatility and a very real chance for a price correction become even greater once we break into “new high territory”.

This upside move has taken almost 5 months to climb back from the December 2018 lows.  It has been a very dramatic rally to say the least.  We’ve seen dozens of professional analysts suggest the markets would rotate lower all the way up this rally.  It seems as though everyone wanted to be right that the market top in October 2018 was going to be the start of something big.  We were one of the few analysts that called the market accurately.  Our September 17, 2018 analysis called for almost every leg of this price swing over the past 7+ months.  We stuck by our research while others were skeptical and doubting our research.  We stuck to it because we believe in our work and modeling tools.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 21, 2019

Stock Market Pause Should Extend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The trend which started at 2346 is ready for another pull-back which should be followed by a final high before a significant correction begins.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, April 19, 2019

While You Were Distracted By Stocks, the Fed Made Its Move… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

This move in the markets is effectively finished… and the Fed’s secret plan is complete

The S&P 500 is right at the very tip of the rising bearish wedge formation I’ve been tracking since early January 2019.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 18, 2019

S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday’s trading session was mixed, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. However, the S&P 500 was the highest since the early October yesterday, following last week’s breakout above the 2,900 level. Will the uptrend continue despite some technical overbought conditions?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Wednesday, as investors took short-term profits off the table following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% yesterday before reversing its intraday upward course. Last Friday it broke above the 2,900 level. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.4% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,900, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 18, 2019

US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US stock markets took a nosedive early in the regular trading session after the QQQ briefly advanced to new All-Time Highs this morning.  With the QQQ and other symbols nearing fresh new highs, traders should expect volatility to increase as trading systems and traders to look for any signs of a top to set up.  As we start to cross into “new high territory”, some fear starts to come back into the markets and volatility is sure to increase.

The Russell 2000 took a pretty big hit today as you can see from the chart below.  This move lower is still well within our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system’s bullish parameters and we’ve highlighted a “Support Zone” for our followers to understand where real price support is located.  Any downside move below $152 would cause us to reconsider our bullish trend position, but right now this is nothing more than price rotation.  Wait it out and look for opportunities when it bottoms.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A very interesting price pattern is setting up in the financial sector that could lead to a very big move in the US & Global markets.  Remember how in 2008-09, the Financial sector and Insurance sector were some of the biggest hit stock sectors to prompt a global market crisis?  Well, the next few weeks and months for the financial sector are setting up to be critical for our future expectations of the US stock market and global economy.

Right now, many of the financial sector stocks are poised near an upper price channel that must be breached/broken before any further upside price advance can take place.  The current trend has been bullish as prices have rallied off the December 2018 lows.  Yet, we are acutely aware of the bigger price channels that could become critical to our future decision making.  If there is any price weakness near these upper price channel levels and any downside price rotation, the downside potential for the price is massive and could lead to bigger concerns.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Plunger

Having trouble making sense of the market?  Do you feel like you are living in some sort of a parallel universe where almost everything happening in the market seems to be the opposite of what you have learned should happen?  You are not alone so let’s try to make some sense of it.  This weekend I will present two possible outcomes for the stock market and the rational behind them.  We will also look at some out of favorite stocks in a bull market.

I see myself more of a market strategist than anything else.  What I have learned after actively watching the ebb and flow of markets for almost 40 years is that the simplest approach is typically the best approach for us mere mortals.  Sure we may be able to score a few short term trades here and there, but the amount of effort and focus it takes makes it unrealistic to make it ones primary investment approach.  It takes an investment professional to consistently make money as a trader.  Those of us who work for a living are best served trying to ride a bull market and not get too wrapped up in the day to day motion of the market. But to ride a bull one must know an awful lot of things, because it takes an independent critical thinker to buy a bottom and sell somewhere near the top after a market fully expresses itself to the upside.  He must be able to divorce himself from the crowd and believe in himself.  He must be able to be comfortable being alone from time to time.  To me the most important thing is to understand where the market is in the greater scheme of things.  I say this because it is my personal approach to investment to find and be in a bull market and to avoid bear markets at all costs.  My observation is that those who listen to Wall Street’s advice to be in the market at all times is suicide.   Bear markets destroy investors and they ruin ones ability to ride the next bull market upward due to the psychological damage they incur.

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