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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold & Silver 2023

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, December 22, 2023

Hey, Remember About Gold Price’s Powerful Reversal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold price has been falling in today’s pre-market trading, but… Given the recent (HUGE!) weekly reversal, does it really surprise anyone?

The Historical Context

Well, it might surprise those that easily forget what happened in the previous weeks and focus on just the day-to-day price swings, but the truth is that the context provided by previous weeks, months, and years (and the performance of other markets!) matters a lot.

I previously wrote about some details coming from the broader perspective and some from the immediate-term analysis, and all that remains true. The recent weekly reversal was so huge that its impact on the next weeks really needs to be kept in mind at all times. It’s not likely that a daily price moves in any direction (especially that gold is lower today…) would invalidate the implications of the powerful weekly (!) reversal.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Silver Price Still Underperforming Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

While the yellow metal hit a new record high, the silver price remains below its post-pandemic peak. 

Recession Risks Loom Over Silver

While gold has dominated the headlines recently, silver and mining stocks have been material underperformers. And with the latter better barometers of investors’ enthusiasm, their relative weakness should concern the permabulls. 

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Commodities

Friday, December 01, 2023

Gold Shines as the Economic Outlook Darkens / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

While looser monetary policy may seem bullish in the short term, the medium-term ramifications could upend the yellow metal.

Recession Pessimism Ahead

The ‘bad news is good news’ trade continues to dominate the financial markets, as weaker economic data is perceived as bullish for risk assets. In a nutshell: if the Fed pivots and ends QT, all of investors’ problems will disappear. However, while the narrative has helped gold, an ominous economic backdrop should result in much lower prices in the months ahead.  

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Stocks and Silver Have Something to Say about Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Silver just shot up, and given what the stock market is doing, it makes perfect sense.

Namely, it’s most likely the final part of the rally in them both, and the same is the case for gold and mining stocks.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 26, 2023

A Golden Setup: Gold Price Trend Forecast Report / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: EWI

Hi,

Gold has long been seen as the refuge for investors who are concerned about economic downturns and inflation. And it's tempting to attribute the metal's price movements to factors like supply and demand, the dollar and interest rates.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Copper/Gold ratio has been indicating an oncoming counter-cyclical environment since breaking down in June, 2022

Copper: Cyclical, inflation sensitive and a material of positive economic progress.

Gold: Much more counter-cyclical, less inflation sensitive and a ‘liquidity haven’ material of long-term monetary value.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Silver Price Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

Caught between conflicting forces, will pivot optimism outweigh the economic malaise that should unfold in the months ahead?

A Short-Lived Rally?

From war premiums to pivot hopes, silver sees sunny skies, as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm , as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm. However, the excitement is misguided, as silver often declines precipitously when recessions arrive. And with an economic downturn poised to bite in 2024, the white metal’s recent rally could be short-lived. 

For example, the University of Michigan released its Index of Consumer Sentiment on Nov. 10. Director Joanne Hsu said:

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 08, 2023

Gold, Silver, Precious Metals Slide Re-starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As the concern with geopolitics peaked, so did gold price. Silver and mining follow. Are you prepared for the likely outcome?

Gold Peaks and Slides

In my yesterday’s analysis, I wrote the following about gold:

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Commodities

Saturday, November 04, 2023

Gold Holds Firms as World Braces for Financial Turmoil, War / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

As the Federal Reserve puts a hold on interest rates, investors have to ask themselves whether the elevated inflation rate is also on hold.

The Fed’s preferred measure of so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, most recently came in at 3.7%. Despite having fallen substantially since last year’s peak, the official inflation rate has yet to approach the Fed’s 2% target.
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Commodities

Friday, November 03, 2023

Sad Silver Price Lags Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

With the economic backdrop continuing to deteriorate, silver’s bull case has become increasingly fragile.

Ominous Signs Ahead

While silver has bounced off its recent lows, the white metal continues to underperform gold. And when volatile areas of the precious metals market showcase weakness (silver and mining stocks) it’s often an ominous sign for the entire sector. 

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Commodities

Sunday, October 08, 2023

Silver Bulls Are the Walking Wounded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

Silver has been a major underperformer in recent months, as the white metal proved no match for higher real yields and a stronger USD Index.

With silver gunning for its 2023 lows, the recent sell-off has done severe technical damage. And while the weakness has been a boon for our GDXJ ETF short position, silver could enjoy a meaningful bounce in the weeks ahead. Yet, the technicals are much better than the fundamentals at uncovering support and resistance, and our premium Gold Trading Alert has all of those details.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 01, 2023

Gold Market Gyrate on U.S. Government Shutdown Theatrics / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets got hammered earlier this week as interest rates continued their relentless march higher.

The 10-year Treasury note recorded its highest yield since 2007. Meanwhile, the average conventional 30-year mortgage rate surged to 7.31% -- a level not seen since 2000.

Higher rates are putting pressure on housing and financial markets. They are also hitting consumers and small businesses.  For now, though, the economy hasn’t entered into a recession – at least not officially.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Dead Ends Ahead for Silver Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With the fundamental roadblocks adding up, silver confronts a bearish outlook at nearly every turn.

With the FOMC’s hawked-up SEP and Powell’s inflation focus upending several risk assets, rising real interest rates continue to weaken silver’s bull thesis. And with the Fed chief promising more of the same on Sep. 20, higher interest rates and/or a recession are both bullish for the USD Index. Powell said:

“The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability, because the record is clear on that. If you don’t restore price stability, inflation comes back and... you can have a long period where the economy is just very uncertain, and it’ll affect growth. It... can be a miserable period to have inflation come constantly coming back and the Fed coming in and having to tighten again and again.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Gold Price and Gold Stocks’ Loud Silence / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What a beautiful nothing! Nothing really happened on the markets on Friday, but due to the context of the previous days’ actions, it was profound.

The thing is that it was a day when markets took a breather and verified their previous moves.

Some price moves are accidental or triggered by geopolitical events. Sometimes, the markets pretty much “have to” move in a certain direction because the only rational thing to do is given the event that is happening. For instance, if a war breaks out in Europe, gold rallies. But it doesn’t mean that it’s going to stay up for long. If the rally was simply reactive and not based on a broader trend, then the rally is going to be invalidated.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 19, 2023

An Alien Invasion Will Cause Gold Price To Soar! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Avi_Gilburt

As many of you that follow my public articles likely know, I am an avid reader. And, from time to time, I will choose to read other public articles on various markets.

What truly burns my buns are articles that present market fallacies as the basis for their "analysis." And, sadly, this is all too commonly seen in the metals complex.

So, just the other day, I read an article that called for a major rally in gold primarily due to an expectation of China invading Taiwan. And, to just add a cherry on top, they noted that if that did not cause gold to rally, then it will rally due to it being a safe haven during market volatility/declines, due to inflation, due to the Fed lowering interest rates, due to central bank buying of gold, etc. In other words, they simply threw the kitchen sink of reasons as to why gold is going to rally in their eyes.

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Commodities

Monday, August 14, 2023

U.S. Mint Bureaucrats Continue to Undermine the Once-Great American Eagle Brand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are ticking lower this week amid an ongoing summer lull in investor demand.

The upshot of soft market conditions for gold and silver is favorable buying opportunities for bargain hunters. Not only are spot prices down, but so are premiums on popular bullion products available through Money Metals.
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Commodities

Monday, July 24, 2023

Are Silver’s Liquidity Dreams a Mirage? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

The white metal is priced for an economic outcome that’s unlikely to materialize. 

AI Optimism

With liquidity-fueled assets outperforming in 2023, they’ve decided that QT and higher interest rates are not going to spoil their party. Moreover, with silver and gold also liquidity beneficiaries, they have adopted similar attitudes. However, while the gambit can persist in the short term, a major climax should unfold over the medium term.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Can We Live in a World without Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

The World Silver Survey is an annual report published by The Silver Institute since 1990. It provides market participants with supply and demand statistics for critical sectors of the silver market, along with price and trade data.

The 2022 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 154 million ounces, the most significant since 2015. The 2023 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 129 million ounces, the second-largest since 2015.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Inflation is Expected to do What?! Implications for Gold. / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The markets just assumed a dovish U-turn in interest rates, thinking that the inflation problem is handled. The below chart features the inflation that’s expected in one year.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Silver Hangs on by a Thread / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

As anxiety grips the white metal, is a retest of the 2023 lows or highs more likely? 

With the Fed’s hawkish crusade helping to suppress gold, silver, and mining stocks, the permabulls have gone from loud to quiet. Moreover, with resilient demand supporting inflation and keeping the pressure on the Fed, we warned on Mar. 31, 2022, that consumer spending would cause problems for the central bank. We wrote:

There is a misnomer in the financial markets that inflation is a supply-side phenomenon. In a nutshell: COVID-19 restrictions, labor shortages, and manufacturing disruptions are the reasons for inflation’s reign. As such, when these issues are no longer present, inflation will normalize and the U.S. economy will enjoy a “soft landing.”

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