Saturday, June 17, 2017

Here Comes Quantitative Tightening / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

All of a sudden the Fed got a little tougher. Perhaps the success of the hit movie Wonder Woman has inspired Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen to discard her prior timidity to show us how much monetary muscle she can flex when the time comes for action.

Although the Fed's decision this week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, the surprise came in how the medicine was administered. Most observers had expected a "dovish" hike in which a slight tightening would be accompanied by an abundance of caution, exhaustive analysis of downside risks, and assurances that the Fed would think twice before proceeding any farther. But that's not what happened. Instead Yellen adopted what should be viewed as the most hawkish policy stance of her chairmanship.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Crazy Charging Stocks Bull Market Random Thoughts / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Sol_Palha

In the sphere of thought, absurdity and perversity remain the masters of the world, and their dominion is suspended only for brief periods. Arthur Schopenhauer

The proverbial question for many years has always been; when will this stock market bull end? By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn't, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds. We would like to stop here and state that this market is now very close to trading in the extremely overbought ranges.  A market can trade in the overbought ranges for an extended period.  In this instance, we analysed monthly charts, where each bar represents a month’s worth of data. Historically, a market has experienced a correction within 5-10 months from the occurrence of this event. As of yet, the markets are not trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the monthly charts, but they are very close to moving into this zone.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Reflation, Deflation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

One of the most important economic debate today is whether the economy will experience reflation or deflation (or low inflation) in the upcoming months. Has the recent reflation been only a temporary jump? Or has it marked the beginning of a new trend? Is the global economy accelerating or are we heading into the next recession? It goes without saying that it is a key investment issue because of the implications for different asset classes, including the precious metals. Let’s try to outline the macroeconomic outlook.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

One of the true riddles in the economic world today is a steady drop in total global productivity over the last few decades. That’s in spite of the growing use of computers, robotics, and artificial intelligence.

In theory, productivity should have gone up, but it didn’t.

Professor and Nobel laureate Robert Gordon and others have foreseen that the GDP growth will decline to less than 1%, and they have all sorts of data to back up their claim.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Grenfell Tower Fire Disaster and Katie Hopkins 'Final Solution' for Muslims / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: N_Walayat

The residents Grenfell Tower have paid the heavy price for the cladding refurbishment craze that has been sweeping Britain for the past decade. One of 30 to 50 year old social housing tower blocks, many of which that should have been demolished but instead are being dolled up with cladding and insulation to reduce energy costs to make them externally more appealing to both residents, visitors and most importantly nearby affluent areas as was the case with Grenfell Tower, a pocket of social housing in Kensington, probably the most affluent area of Britain.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold reversed sharply lower after the Fed’s latest rate hike this week, on heavy selling from speculators and investors alike.  Bearish sentiment flared on traders’ long-held belief that higher rates spell trouble for zero-yielding gold.  But market history reveals the opposite, that Fed rate hikes are actually bullish for gold.  This week’s Fed-induced gold dump is likely to flag gold bottoming just before a major new rally erupts.

There’s nothing gold-futures speculators fear more than Fed rate hikes.  Their rationale is simple and logical.  Gold pays no interest or dividends, it’s a sterile asset with returns solely dependent on capital gains.  So as interest rates rise and boost yields for bonds and stocks, gold struggles to compete.  Thus gold investment demand wanes as yield differentials grow between it and major competing asset classes.

Friday, June 16, 2017

USDCNH Rebounded Away From Channel Support / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Franco_Shao

After breaking above the bearish trend line from 6.8876 to 6.8351 on its 4-hour chart, the USDCNH pair continued to break above the major resistance at the June 2 high of 6.7918, and is now trades in 6.8200 area, indicating that the bearish movement from the May 9 high of 6.9171 had completed at 6.7210 already.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Drones Upending Business Models and Reshaping Industry Landscapes / Companies / Drone Tech

By: The_Gold_Report

Rick Mills, editor of Ahead of the Herd, discusses how he sees drones upending business models and reshaping industry landscapes, including agriculture.

Economist Joseph Schumpeter introduced innovation economics in his 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. Schumpeter said that industries must incessantly revolutionize the economic structure from within by innovating with better or more effective processes and products.

Friday, June 16, 2017

The Market Effects of Another Interest Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Donald_W_Dony

Yesterday's much anticipated Fed interest rate increase has done little to change the mood on Wall Street.

The FOMC raised the Fed Funds rate by another 25 bps on Wednesday as Fed chair Janet Yellen saw the US economy advancing at a "measured" rate.

This is the 2nd time the Fed has increased rates this year and the 3rd time in as many quarters.

Friday, June 16, 2017

British Election Sends Shockwaves Felt Here and Abroad / Politics / UK Politics

By: John_Browne

Last week's General Election in the United Kingdom was a disaster for the new conservative government of Prime Minster Theresa May. Having called the unnecessary "snap" elections in order to strengthen her political hand, the result actually reduced the number of seats held by the conservatives and delivered large gains to the opposition Labour party, which had seemed in disarray just a few months ago. Although she has announced no plans to step down, her position has been severely weakened, possibly fatally. More pointedly, the UK's hand in negotiating favorable Brexit terms has eroded substantially. Besides creating significant ramifications for the European and global economy, the election also provides important lessons for the potential state of American politics.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Heating Oil Bottom Is In.(probably) / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Stephen_Cox

MRI Trading Signals has identified a high probability of a HEATING OIL LOW, at least for awhile.  It may be a stretch to see the nearby HON 17 (141.13) close above the previous week’s close 143.70, requiring a 2.57+ net change on Friday.  IF that happens then HO is confirming the WEEKLY TIME SETUP in the ACL and LCL Closing Line Chart Frames- 3D, 5(F)A, 13(F)a and 30(G)a to WK 07 NOV’16 and 45(G)a to WK 25 JUL’16.  

Friday, June 16, 2017

Here’s the Investing Reason Active Funds Can’t Beat Passive Funds—and It Worries Me a Lot / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve touched on the issue of passive investing quite a few times. But this time, I want to show a few charts that illustrate the extent of the problems that are building up in the passive index world.

It is not just ETFs, but also index mutual funds and the enormous amount of pension and insurance funds, along with many trust funds, that are passively invested directly in stocks. They simply duplicate indexes.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Is There Gold “Hype” and is Gold an Emotional Trade? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Very little hype in gold

– Sentiment is important in the gold market as is other markets particularly stocks

– Article ignores the large body of research showing gold is safe haven asset

– Gold may struggle to breach $1,300 in short term

– Trading gold and short term speculation is high risk and for professionals

Friday, June 16, 2017

Grenfell Tower Cladding Fire Disaster, 4,000 Ticking Time Bombs, Sheffield Council Flats Panic! / Politics / Health and Safety

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The residents Grenfell Tower have paid the heavy price for the cladding refurbishment craze that has been sweeping Britain for the past decade. One of 30 to 50 year old social housing tower blocks, many of which that should have been demolished but instead are being dolled up with cladding and insulation to reduce energy costs to make them externally more appealing to both residents, visitors and most importantly nearby affluent areas as was the case with Grenfell Tower, a pocket of social housing in Kensington, probably the most affluent area of Britain. An area where millionaires can be found living within 100 metres of taxi drivers, refugees and the other low paid workers necessary for the functioning of London. The rich just could not stand the view form their mansions as they looked out upon modernist concrete tower blocks, so they rich got their way as most of the nations concrete tower blocks have been all cladded up.

Friday, June 16, 2017

USDJPY Still Under Pressure / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Franco_Shao

USDJPY stays below the bearish trend line from 111.71 to 110.81 with resistance at around 110.20 on its 4-hour chart, suggesting that the pair remains in bearish movement from the May 11 high of 114.36. As long as the pair is below the trend line, the bearish move could be expected to continue, and next target would be at the April 17 low of 108.13. A breakdown below 108.13 support will indicate that the longer term downtrend from the December 2016 high of 118.66 has resumed, then the pair will find next support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the June 2016 low of 98.97 to 118.66 at around 106.50.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Counting Down the LAST DAYS of the Stocks Bull Market, at FIVE degrees of trend! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

How Precious Metals Can Help Protect Your Wealth from Hackers / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Could your wealth be hacked? It’s a threat most investors overlook. But they do so at their own peril.

If elections can be hacked, then so can bank and brokerage accounts, as well as any online platforms for digital currencies.

More than five months into Donald Trump’s presidency, the “Russia hacked the election” conspiracy theories still won’t go away. They’re expanding to also implicate Russian hackers for meddling in elections in France and elsewhere. The latest Russian hacking story centers on Qatar.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

The War On Cash Is Now Becoming The War On Cryptocurrency / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

The US government is the most bankrupt government in the history of the world. At $19.9 trillion, nothing even comes close. The next closest are the EU and Japan with approximately $9 trillion in debt… not even half as much as the US!

And, when you add up all US government debt and liabilities - which are things already spent but which need to be paid for in the future - it works out to somewhere between $100 and $200 trillion.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

The US Dollar Bull Case / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

I see just about everyone has their own theory or trading discipline on where the US dollar is headed next. It’s all these different ideas that make the markets work. Everyone can’t be bullish at the bottom or bearish at the top, it’s just the way it has to be.

For my 2 cents worth I’m still looking at the possible fractal, bullish rising wedge as a halfway pattern to the upside. I did an in depth report on currencies and the US dollar several months ago in which I showed how it could play out. Since that report the US dollar has declined down to the point, where if the fractal is going to work, now is the time for the US dollar to put in its bottom.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Gold-Silver Ratio: Debunking The Myth / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

A 16-to-1 gold to silver ratio has been the Holy Grail of some silver investors since the mid-sixties.

Unfortunately, fifty years later, it is a quest that continues unabated without success.

In fact, there is evidence that contradicts and widens the chasm that separates wishful thinking from reality. 

In the Mint Act of 1792, the U.S. government arbitrarily chose a 16 to 1 ratio of gold prices to silver prices.  The actual prices were set at $20.67 per ounce for gold; and $1.29 per ounce for silver.