Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Stock and Bond Markets Outlook For 2017 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: InvestingHaven
We have discussed at length different forecasts for 2017. All our calls, so far, seem to be spot-on. Think of our bullish call for financial stocks in 2017 and bearish gold price forecast 2017. In this article we explain our broad markets outlook for 2017.
Many investors look for leading indicators. Some look at the volatility index (VIX), others at the U.S. dollar or inflation expectations (TIPS). Some believe that reading the news will be helpful to understand where markets are going. The truth of the matter is that none of all that is helpful whatsoever. Most sources are only noise, and that is the reason why only 10% of investors are successful.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Gold Price Forecast: Nasty Naughty November Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: I_M_Vronsky
As all are well aware the price of gold initiated a new bull market since December 2015 (rising from $1,050 to its $1,376 peak in early July this year. Indeed it was a spectacular bull price run where gold soared more than +30% in only six months. Indeed spectacular!
Subsequently, the bull trend petered out in early July. Since then the price of gold has been steadily declining. Moreover, there are several reasons for this on-going price consolidation…and why it has yet to put in a bottom:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield Soaring
- US$ Index Surges
- US$ vs 3-Month T-Bill
- Weekly $UST1Y vs USD Chart
- Point&Figure Projections (Gold, USD and Silver)
- Traditional November Gold Price Decline
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Stocks and Deby - Will Trump Bring Morning or Mourning in America? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Michael_Pento
On election night, as political analysts were coming to terms with the possibility of a Trump presidency, the Dow Jones futures plummeted over 800 points, and Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 plunged more than 6.1%. Investors across the country went to sleep with nightmares of protectionism (Smoot-Hawley Trade Tariffs 2.0) and the fiscal train wreck that a Trump presidency might bring.
But by the start of trading on November 9th, Dow futures had recouped most of their losses, and it didn't take long for the erstwhile despondent equity markets to turn sharply positive.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2016
US Education System Broken: Let's Try 'Ed-Exit' / Politics / Educating Children
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan recently signed an executive order forbidding Maryland public schools from beginning classes before Labor Day. Governor Hogan's executive order benefits businesses in Maryland's coastal areas that lose school-aged summer employees and business from Maryland families when schools start in August. However, as Governor Hogan's critics have pointed out, some Maryland school districts, as well as Maryland schoolchildren, benefit from an earlier start to the school year.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Reversal Interest Rates Are the Next Big Challenge for Central Banks / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
BY SAMUEL RINES : Negative and ultra-low interest rates have become the norm for the developed world. The phrases “lower for longer” and “new normal” are now accepted as facts rather than predictions. But, how low is too low?
For many developed world economies, rates remain low in order to combat stagnation as growth slows. Negative rates are a side effect of these deep, fundamental economic issues.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Why Post-Election Stock Market Rally Won’t Last / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Mauldin
I’d like to share an update that throws some chilly water on the post-election stock market rally.
My friends Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management usually write only quarterly letters. They send interim updates only when something of major consequence happens. The fact they wrote this one is significant… and what they say is definitely important.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Trump Can Fix US Economy by Embracing Biotech / Economics / BioTech
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK COX : The presidential campaign made one fact very clear. Most of the media and public aren't focused on economic growth.
Growth powers and funds everything else. Just take a look at the enormous federal deficit and you’ll see that economic health keeps taking a back seat to short-term goals.
Yes, John Maynard Keynes made a case for using debt to stimulate the economy. But he never said anything about permanent deficits. And that is our current practice. The result is that taxpayers’ options will be curtailed in the future.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Here’s the Real Reason Putin Sympathizes with Trump / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The US presidential campaign contained a constant undertone of Russia and President Vladimir Putin.
Putin said nice things about Donald Trump, and Trump about Putin. In fact, there is a small faction of Trump supporters that admires Putin. They like that he is a strong leader and his position on gay rights and other matters. They do not see him as a former communist, but rather as a defender of Western civilization.
But, the key here is to understand the real issues that exist between the US and Russia. At the heart of this matter is Ukraine.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Elites Are an Endangered Species / Politics / Social Issues
By: John_Mauldin
I’m glad to read that the halls of power in Europe are in an uproar over our election.
Their concern is not that Trump is now president. They are worried that elites everywhere—the people who “know” how the world should be run and expect the “little people” to stay in line—are an endangered species.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
The Trump Trade War Already Started / Politics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : After the initial shock-and-awe reaction to the surprise Trump victory, the markets rejoiced last week… a lot.
“The Dow closed at an all-time high on Thursday, while the S&P and the Nasdaq were flirting with their record highs entering Friday,” reported CNBC.
Others were less thrilled with the election result. Some experts claimed Trump’s plans to raise tariffs on China, withdraw from NAFTA, and otherwise stop globalization in its tracks would surely set off a trade war and hurt the markets.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Obstacles to Trump’s Economic Growth Plans / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For the second time in a few weeks (see ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent), former British diplomat Alastair Crooke quotes me extensively, and I return the favor. Crooke here attempts to list -some of- the difficulties Donald Trump will face in executing the -economic- measures he promised to take in his campaign. Crooke argues that, as I’ve indicated repeatedly, for instance in America is The Poisoned Chalice, the financial crisis that never ended may be one of his biggest problems.
Here, again, is Alastair Crooke:
We are plainly at a pivotal moment. President-Elect Trump wants to make dramatic changes in his nation’s course. His battle cry of wanting to make “America Great Again” evokes – and almost certainly is intended to evoke – the epic American economic expansions of the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Trump Negotiating NAFTA's Future, Mexico Economic Uncertainty / Politics / US Politics
By: STRATFOR
In Mexico, uncertainty abounds over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and, in particular, his promises to change NAFTA. Although the next president will have the power to unilaterally pull out of the trade bloc, as he has threatened to do, congressional opposition and legal challenges from private companies may discourage him from doing so. Aside from the political and legal battles that would doubtless ensue, withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement would be economically painful, disrupting business continuity for companies around the world — including those in the United States. Still, Trump has a few options with regard to NAFTA. Instead of suddenly withdrawing from the deal, he could try to renegotiate certain aspects of it. He may even decide to leave NAFTA alone (although that seems unlikely given the emphasis he placed on the agreement during his campaign). Regardless of which path he takes, Trump will not be acting in a vacuum. His decision will likely depend on the cooperation of the U.S. Congress and of the trade agreement's other signatories, Canada and Mexico.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Stocks Remain Close To All-Time Highs - Will The Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,240, and profit target at 2,060, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, November 21, 2016
All Cash ISA Savings Interest Rates Plunge Below 1.00% / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Savings Trends Treasury Report data, yet to be published, highlights that all ISA averages have fallen below the 1.00% barrier for the first time on Moneyfacts records.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
UK Autumn Statement: The Longest Tax Freeze in History Must be Turned into a Cut / Politics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Submissions
Pre-Autumn Statement releases and announcement rumours of a continuing freeze in fuel duty till April 2018 show that the Chancellor of the Exchequer in his first ‘Mini-Budget’ is undeniably listening to FairFuelUK’s overwhelming economic evidence that lower prices at the pumps are hugely beneficial to the economy.However, following the Autumn Statement UK petrol drivers will remain the 5th most fuel taxed in the world with diesel drivers being punished more than all other countries in 1st position. UK drivers will still pay £33bn in fuel taxes each year to the Treasury for little investment return into roads infrastructure.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
This Past Week in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets, and shows why investors can expect lower prices overall.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Energy Sector Cycle Turns Up / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a new buy signal in the energy sector.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Silver Is Not Real Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Kelsey_Williams
Is silver real money? I don’t think so. But I know that my proclamation will likely draw vociferous contradictions from others who consider themselves “hard-money advocates”.
That’s okay. Let’s look at the facts. And in order to be consistent with the introduction of my companion article GOLD IS REAL MONEY, let’s start similarly here. In this case though, I will list what silver is rather than what it is not. Silver is:
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Monday, November 21, 2016
An Honest Look at Gold Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
For the last two weeks, since the US elections, we’ve been discussing the possibility of strong inflection points building out on many different areas of the markets. These are areas where the markets can turn on a dime leaving those folks looking one way while the markets go the opposite way. Important inflection points are more of a price thing than a time thing. An inflection point can last days or weeks before they finally resolve themselves.
Lets start by looking at the US dollar, as it plays such a key role in so many markets. Below is a three year daily chart which shows its major impulse leg up out of the mid 2014 low, and topped out in the spring of 2015. For just under two years the US dollar has been chopping out a sideways trading range, rectangle consolidation pattern, and closed above the top rail this week. The breakout is not actually confirmed yet as the price action would have to close above the 103 area and then a backtest to the top rail around 100 would have to hold. For the time being, we have to give the benefit of a doubt, to the US dollar bulls until proven otherwise.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Stock Market Swift Shift From Safety to Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Donald_W_Dony
Part of the U.S. president-elect's narrative has been on invigorating the economy. Massive spending on upgrades in schools, highways, hospitals and infrastructure have all been mentioned.
The market, in response to the proposed spending, quickly shifted from safety assets to risk and growth.
Four sectors, in particular, saw solid selling pressure over the last 30 days (Chart 1).
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