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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Friday, May 28, 2021

Eerily Serene Risk off Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 had a mixed day, and the credit market underlines the shift to risk-off. Halfway shift, to be precise – the high yield corporate bonds recovered the intraday downside but value sold off all the way to the closing bell. Well, rising yields used to add to tech‘s problems since mid Feb, and retreating yields don‘t breathe enough life into the sector now. It‘s clearly visible that the high beta segments are facing the yields‘ headwinds while $NYFANG is in the black, but more than a little lagging.

The Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a good few weeks, is here. While it works to lift tech and hamper value, the days of value doing fine are far from over as the VTV:QQQ ratio illustrates:

(…)  We‘re still in the value outperforming growth environment (reflation and reopening themes), it‘s just right now (last few days) that tech is pulling stronger ahead than value. ... Value‘s reaction to the yields trajectory ahead would be telling, and I have no doubts there is quite some more juice left in the long value trade (and that the Russell 2000 isn‘t rolling over to the downside here).

Emerging markets are welcoming the dollar woes and yields reprieve, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t too much of a drag either. VIX refused further downside yesterday, and is hedging off bets as much as the option players do – no change in prior trends here, just a move away from the complacent end of the spectrum. The stock bull run is still about dips being bought.

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Politics

Friday, May 28, 2021

Covid India Black Mold Epidemic / Politics / Coronavirus 2021

By: N_Walayat

The Indian strain is fast becoming dominant in the UK which has the government implementing plans for a third booster dose later this year. Meanwhile India is seeing a new emerging nightmare consequence of covid-19 - black mold disease, an opportunist fungal disease which is related to high blood sugar levels i.e. diabetes which is at epidemic levels in India that now the black mold disease is capitalising upon due to immune system impaired covid-19 infections. Black Mold KILLs tissue and if untreated has a fatality rate of 94%! Far in excess of covid-19! Though it can be treated in the early stages with anti-fungal's but if left unchecked would require expensive specialist treatment i.e. surgical intervention to remove the dead tissue.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 28, 2021

Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Gold has set up a very strong confluence pattern across multiple foreign currencies recently.  This upside confluence pattern suggests that Gold has now moved into a much stronger bullish price phase compared to various currency pairs.  This upside move in precious metals aligns very well with my broad market cycle phase research. I urge traders/investors to start paying attention as we transition into this new longer-term cycle phase.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 28, 2021

Inflation Cools (For Now) Stagflation Awaits / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed

That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?”

To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had to be tamped down. And so, Google users have indeed eased their neuroses right along with a recent tamping of inflationary hysteria.

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Currencies

Friday, May 28, 2021

CPU Crypto Mining Profitability! 5950x Ethereum with Nicehash, is it worth it to mine for Bitcoins? / Currencies / Crypto Mining

By: HGR

Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading to over $60,000 before the recent slump, which means virtually anyone with a decent ebough GPU in their PC can make money from their very own desktop computers. However what about your CPU, can that too make money to maximise income crypto craze? Can cpus generate enough hash rates to make them profitable as virtually all modern GPUs are?

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Companies

Thursday, May 27, 2021

GOOGLE (Alphabet) Stock Price Trend Analysis / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Google has had a spectacular bull run to stand up 34% year to date! In terms of valuations Google's stock price is running a little ahead of itself on an EC of 49 against 44 in February. I consider a sweet buying spot for Google when EC is below 40 which would imply a fair price for Google around 2000. So Google is over priced at $2400, in terms of current earnings. In terms of a Buy %, Google is neutral on 50%.

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Economics

Thursday, May 27, 2021

The Shifting US Economy: AI and Automation Lead the Way / Economics / AI

By: Submissions

The Biden administration is 125 days old, and things certainly feel different. What strategies are you employing to take advantage of the shift?

Things often change temporarily before reverting to a mean. Just like market instruments, changing political ideals can, do, and will change, before ultimately reverting back to a mean, or an average state.

Labor force configurations have changed drastically, partially due to the pandemic. What was once everyone’s dream “to work from home”, went from a wish to a potentially harsh reality and has stayed there for many people.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Are Silver Prices Really Cheap; And Does It Matter? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Proponents of silver and their expectations for a much higher price have talked for years about the reasons “silver is undervalued” (their words, not mine).

Whether it is a deficit in new production of silver or the gold-to-silver ratio, there is always something to talk about; so let’s talk.

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Forecasts

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Looking Down the Rabbit Hole: The Soon Coming Stock Market Crash! / Forecasts / Stock Market 2021

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The charts below (SPX and GDX) show what I believe will happen into the month of June where I believe an important top will occur before a summer crash. The prognostication is not meant to take the place of the regular 2-3 e-mails I send out to my subs every day, but as generally expected future wave count with close projections for price and time projections as best I can determine based on the cycles of the past.

The first chart of the SPX shows the S&P 500 and its dramatic rising wedge pattern being formed since the Oct 30, 2020 bottom. I believe the orthodox E-Wave top occurred on April 16, 2021, with everything else being the irregular topping patterns that tend to occur right before a crash of note.

The big astrological implications for social-unrest, and a possible civil war and even a major world war, surround the 90-year passages of Saturn square Uranus (1931-32, 1861-62, 1771-72) and the 84-Year Cycle of Uranus in Taurus (1934-42, 1850-58, 1768-76), which are coming together here in the classic “Perfect Storm”.

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Currencies

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Bitcoin: More Volatility Directly Ahead? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: EWI


Here's how Elliott wave analysis helps you prepare for cryptocurrency volatility

If there's a single word to describe bitcoin's price action, that word is "volatile."

Yet, those who invested roughly a year ago in the cryptocurrency -- and stuck with it -- have been hugely rewarded. (At least until very recently, as bitcoin traded more than 50% lower from its all-time high on May 19, as the price careened nearly 30% at one point on that day alone.)

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Economics

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Are US Inflation Fears Destabilising the Global Markets? / Economics / Inflation

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The US dollar has enjoyed renewed highs of late, with this trend at least partially the result of forex positioning and a pronounced increase in net short positions as investors brace themselves for a depreciation in the value of the greenback.

However, this also betrays rising rates of US inflation, which recently peaked at 2.6% and pushed the dollar even higher against both the pound and the Euro.

But are rising inflation fears beginning to destabilise the global markets, and what does this tell us about the influence of inflation on stocks and shares throughout the world?

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Gold: The Past Years Are Often the Best Guides / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As we know, history tends to rhyme. It’s never the same, but when you zoom out, the bigger picture often looks very similar. What does it mean for gold?

Short-term implications

With gold’s back-and-forth price action mirroring its behavior from 2012, the yellow metal is likely destined for devaluation.

Back then, gold zigzagged with anxiety before suffering a material drawdown. In fact, in early October 2012, it moved slightly above the initial highs right before sliding.

Moreover, while the yellow metal has bounced above its declining resistance line (the black line below), the price action mirrors gold’s behavior from early January. If you analyze the blue line below, you can see that investors’ optimism regarding gold’s short-term breakout quickly faded and the yellow metal sunk like a stone. In addition, with gold’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) moving slightly above 70 before the January swoon occurred, an identical development is already playing out in real time.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Inflation Easing, Now What? / Economics / Inflation

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused to keep early gains, and reversed back into no man‘s land – on little convincing volume. For now, we remain chopping below my 4,180s level, conquering which on a closing basis would a bullish achievement. Until that happens on convincing internals, fake moves in both directions would remain with us.

The Fed telegraphing the talk about talking taper is a first step in preparing the markets not to get surprised by the actual deed, but how far is that one really? Stocks, bonds and currencies aren‘t reacting much – it‘s only commodities that are in consolidation mode, but this can be chalked down to inflation expectations calming down over the prior three trading days. Until the Fed truly moves or makes its forward guidance as unequivocal as can be in this respect, the markets would be in a doubting attitude (or at a minimum, a wait and see one):

(…) The market simply isn‘t convinced the Fed is serious about taking on inflation through (gradual) removal of the punch bowl – or about shaping its forward guidance credibly this way (yet). Inflation expectations are cooling down a little, and the Treasury market is tracking them closely. But this doesn‘t mean that bonds are taking the central bank seriously – this move is part and parcel of the transitory vs. getting (practically permanently unless a Fed game changer arrives – still unlikely) elevated inflation readings debate.

While I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.

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Companies

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Is it a Good Idea to Trade Penny Stocks - The Pros and Cons / Companies / Investing 2021

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The world’s financial market is continuing to evolve at a rapid pace, both in terms of trading volumes and the range of assets available to investors.

While commodities and forex trading are amongst the most popular assets, penny stocks also offer potential value to investors. These are known as relatively high-risk securities that boast a small market capitalisation value, while they’re amongst the most accessible assets in the financial market.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

FREE Report - This Stock Strategy beat the market by 220% / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021

By: Submissions

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Currencies

Monday, May 24, 2021

US Dollar Breaks Below 90 – Continue To Confirm Depreciation Cycle Phase / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you’ve been following my recent research posts, you already know my research team and I are expecting some very big volatility and trends in the US and global markets over the next 12 to 48 months. 

The US Dollar Index fell below a critical support level above 90 recently.  This move lower after attempting to bottom in early 2021 suggests our broad Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research is continuing to play out.  This means we should start to prepare for bigger trends, more volatility, and the potential for broad market price rotation over the next few years. You can read about our Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research entitled Long Term Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals and Metals Rally Early In 2021.

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Companies

Monday, May 24, 2021

How Popular are Small Business Loans? / Companies / Debt & Loans

By: Sumeet_Manhas

...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, May 24, 2021

Stock Market New Uptrend Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move past 4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 rom 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
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Personal_Finance

Monday, May 24, 2021

CHIA Plotting on Mechanical Hard Drives Not SSD's or NVME2s - How Long to Plot / Personal_Finance / Crypto Mining

By: HGR

CHIA burns through SSD's and NVME2s at the rate of about 2tb per 100gb plot! So as an alternativer how long does it take to plot on a mechanical hard drive and how many plots can one expect to generate from 5 or 6 drives in a system all queue plotting away.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 23, 2021

Gold Approaches $1,900 amid FOMC Minutes and Crypto Sell-Off / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The latest FOMC minutes were dovish, especially in light of the recent increase in inflation and elevated asset valuations. What does it mean for gold?

Yesterday, the FOMC published minutes from its last meeting in April . They’ve shown two things doing that: first, that some of the central bankers are worried about the inflation and elevated asset valuations; and, second, that the Fed is going to remain dovish despite all these concerns .

Indeed, some FOMC participants noted that the demand for labor had started to put some upward pressure on wages. Moreover, a number of them pointed out the protracted supply disruptions and the insufficient pre-emptive hawkish reaction from the Fed as potentially inflationary factors:

A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year. They noted that in some industries, supply chain disruptions appeared to be more persistent than originally anticipated and reportedly had led to higher input costs. (…)
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