Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system has called some incredible moves over the past 24+ months. It predicted the moves in Gold moving from $1340 to $1750 – including many of the trend changes that took place over the past 15+ months. It predicted the collapse in Crude Oil back in July 2019 – even calling for a sub-$20 price collapse in March/April 2020. Overall, the abilities of this unique predictive modeling tool have been nothing short of incredible.
For many weeks, we’ve been suggesting the US stock market has entered a no man’s land after the bottom setup near March 20, 2020. The US Fed and global central banks have stepped in to attempt to support the markets and to take pressures off financial institutions and consumers. These efforts presented a very real opportunity for technical traders to attempt to “ride the Fed wave” over the past 3+ weeks. Right now, things appear to be a bit more fragile going forward into the Summer months and the ADL predictive modeling system is showing us what to expect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday’s refusal of the stock upswing didn’t really stick, and the S&P 500 opened higher. Trading with an upward bias during the session, the index closed comfortably above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As outlandish as it might seem, does it denote a new bull market being on the way? It just can’t be overstated how crucial this level is to the stock market outlook…
S&P 500 in the Short-Run
Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 25, 2020
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As technical traders and researchers, we’ve been paying very close attention to the GREEN ARC Fibonacci resistance level on the SPY as a key level for the US stock market and any hope of a continued upside price rally. The SPY has traded near this level for the past three weeks and appears to be attempting a bit of an upside breakout right now. Yet, we understand a long holiday weekend is upon us in the US, Memorial Day, and after a big upside GAP on Monday, the US stock market has stalled over the past few days.
Our researchers believe this GREEN ARC is still acting as critical price resistance and believe the SPY may sell off into the end of the week resulting in a failed attempt to breach this key resistance level. If this happens, the failed attempt to break this resistance could prompt a change in price trend and initiate a new downside price trend. If this resistance level is broken by the end of this week, then we have a pretty solid indicator that continued bullish price trending may continue.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 24, 2020
Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 23, 2020
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Kelsey_Williams
The 21st century was ushered in by fears about Y2k and how it might impact computer programming that was already in place. Part of the concern centered on the financial markets.
The Federal Reserve announced that they were ready to support the stock market and provide backup for financial institutions that might encounter difficulties.
The big day arrived and, other than an occasional glitch that seemed to be unrelated to the heightened global fears, the birth of the new century was pretty much uneventful. Overall, the markets remained relatively quiet. However, trouble was still brewing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 21, 2020
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
People across the entire planet remain very much aware of the COVID-19 health threat.
The global disruption associated with the pandemic far surpasses other major health scares in modern history.
Even so, you may recall 2009 news articles similar to this one from the New York Times (June 11, 2009):
It came as no surprise [on June 11, 2009] when the World Health Organization declares that the swine flu outbreak had become a pandemic.
The disease has reached 74 countries ... .
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last analysis focused on the unfolding economic consequences of the corona catastrophe that really should never have happened. Instead due to gross incompetence and negligence of our governments we are rapidly descending down a black hole the depths of which we can only guess at, as economic contraction numbers for Q2 range from -20% to -40% for the UK and the US. For worse than anyone could have imagined even a few weeks ago as the gauge of possibilities were mostly centered around the Financial Crisis of 2008. Where this crisis apparently looks set to be many times worse! ALL courtesy of the headless chickens in charge with their mad scientists advising them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Yesterday’s session did away with the non-confirmation of last week’s reversal from the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Junk corporate bonds lent their support to the stock upswing, and the S&P 500 closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Will the bulls be strong enough to confirm the breakout, or is a correction next?
S&P 500 in the Short-Run
Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):
Steadily rising in the runup to the start of the US session, stocks opened with a sizable bullish gap. And they haven’t looked back since, closing on high volume above the key resistance, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Reflecting the upswing, the daily indicators turned largely supportive.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Short-term Analysis
The uptrend off the March 23rd low appears to be tiring, running out of steam, as evidenced by the MACD that is showing early signs of starting to roll over after having unwound ALL of it's earlier over sold state. So as I warned last week the Dow does appear to want to go lower rather than higher in the immediate future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Global Market Insights You Need to Know Now / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Hi,
You want your portfolio to make it through this crisis in one piece. Maybe even gain, if at all possible.
But the opinions you're hearing are all over the map. There is no precedent in modern investment history.
So, our friends at Elliott Wave International have offered up a free resource to help.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 17, 2020
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers believe the US stock market has potentially ended the “relief rally” phase where the US Fed stimulus pushed prices off the recent lows and upward towards key Fibonacci retracement levels and will soon engage in a new price exploration phase. We believe this new phase will attempt to properly value the “solvency” question that has become one of the top discussions for our researchers.
The Solvency question equates to this simple issue… How can individuals, companies, states, and other entities continue to operate with greatly reduced income/revenues, moderately high debts, and liabilities throughout a process of an extended shutdown? Certainly, the option of adding more debt to ease the short term pain of lost revenues may be a solution, but we believe this issue is much bigger than these traditional short term solutions. We believe the COVID-19 virus event is presenting a shift in traditional thinking for many economists, individuals, and enterprises.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 15, 2020
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the Russell 2000 is leading the way in terms of technical analysis and future expectations. While the NASDAQ has rallied as a result of US Fed stimulus and foreign investor activity, the Russell 2000 has set up a very clear price resistance level near $131~132 that presents very real potential for a double-dip downward price trend in the near future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 14, 2020
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
I think there has been more hair torn out in frustration during this rally off the 2200SPX region lows than at almost any other time in market history. The frustration in trying to understand this market is ubiquitous.
As the unemployment numbers get worse and worse, the market continues to rally higher and higher. In fact, the futures rallied 70 points off the overnight low struck on Wednesday night even after the negative employment data was announced Thursday morning, and then rallied another 60 points off the overnight low struck on Thursday night despite the worst employment report in history being presented on Friday morning.
As I continue to peruse the Seeking Alpha public articles, I see more and more articles being published that tell everyone exactly what they already “know” as a certainty: We are setting up for a major crash in the market as we usher in the next Great Depression.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 14, 2020
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has identified a potential trade setup in QID that correlates to our ongoing analysis of the US stock market and our Advanced Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs. We believe a major price inflection point is setting up in the US stock market within the next 48 hours that may prompt a price trend reversal in the NASDAQ and other major US stock market indexes. This pattern correlates to a much longer-term Head-n-Shoulders pattern that is also setting up in the SPY.
Our belief is that technical traders should wait for confirmation of this setup before entering any new trades, yet we believe we will have confirmation of this setup within 3 to 5 trading days – given the urgency of the setup with our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs. We believe a right-shoulder could be forming as the US stock markets push a bit higher in early trading this week. We believe the Fibonacci Price Acr’s are suggesting a major inflection point is preparing to disrupt price trends.
Just to be clear, this is a prediction, and as technical traders, we wait for confirmation before trading. This is the #1 issue with most traders. They jump the gun and buy into a trade idea before the price chart has confirmed and they lose a lot of money. Follow price, don’ try to lead it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 'scientists' say that viruses are not alive. We'll for something that's 'technically' not alive it sure does behave like it is! Perhaps just as scientists will deem AI to be 'not alive' all the way until they take all of the jobs.
So lets leave the academic world behind, for their moronic obsession's has gotten us into this mess, certainties of solutions adopted by the likes of the UK and US to achieve 'herd immunity' when commonsense would have served our nations far better that of isolating and quarantining all those even suspected of being infected! Such as every flight entering the UK from virus infested China during January and February.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
High Degree of Risk in Overvalued Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Christopher_Quigley
The markets continue to remain overvalued, with a high degree of risk. A quick recovery is priced into every major index and if this should prove incorrect, expect a serious correction. I anticipate October will be crunch time.
If earnings guidance indicates continued recessionary conditions (negative GDP growth) and if results in the American Presidential election results are too close to call, I reckon there will be a swift re-pricing of all equity and bond assets. Either way, I suggest investors be ready and prepared, come the third quarter, for all eventualities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader’s historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.
Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.
And do you know what? The rising risk profile that we have been noting for weeks will likely paint them as being right before too long. Imagine all those ‘man who predicted a new market crash now predicts… (blah blah blah)’ headlines that we will be subjected to as the paint-by-numbers media look to feed easy answers to the public later in the year and into 2021. The bears will probably be right but here’s the thing, they have not been right for nearly 2 months now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday’s key data point were the non-farm payrolls. Horrendous and coming in at minus 20,500K, they surprised on the upside. After their release, stocks continued adding to their overnight gains, closing at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our previous bullish points turned out correct, but the key question is how strong is this rally? Can it power through this key resistance that is reinforced by the early March bearish gap?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 11, 2020
The Great Stock Market Disconnect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – re-testing April high
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis is the final part in my following series of analysis -
- Rabbits in the Headlights
- Paving the Way for War with China
- The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History?
- Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE!
- UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
- US Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
- Stock Market Implications and Forecast
The whole of which was first made available to Patrons who support my work: Is the Stock Market Correct to Ignore The Great Coronavirus Economic Depression?
Read full article... Read full article...