Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Stock Market Failed Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Still Bull Market?
SPX: Intermediate trend – The index appears to have made a secondary top at the 2104 level and to have started another decline of intermediate duration.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, December 20, 2015
Fed Might Have Nailed End of Cyclical Stocks Bull Market, Beginning of Next US Recession / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Jas_Jain
On April 5, 2015 I suggested that One of the Longest Cyclical Bull Market In US Stocks May be Coming to an End with an update on August 16, 2015. Now, it seems that Janet Yellen has nailed the end of the cyclical bull market with her telegraphing the specific date for change in policy and then acting on it. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher's statement, few months ago, that the Fed is data dependent and not date dependent (emphasis in his voice) was part of Fed propaganda to cover up the real reasons behind the change in policy. If the cyclical bull market were coming to an end, as Yellen has concluded, and the bear market is to begin in early 2016 the recession would follow. As one can see in Fig. 1, S&P 500 is where it was approximately 16 months ago and the market has been struggling.
Friday, December 18, 2015
Stock Market Flash Crash Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This is getting uncomfortably close to a meltdown, despite the late hour. If it continues to decline into the close, options sellers will be caught wrong-footed and will have to continue to sell on Monday.
Flash Crash time?
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Stock Market Figures Out Fed No Longer Has Its Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Rubino
US stocks soared while the Fed was meeting to raise interest rates this week — though it’s not clear why that should be so since monetary tightening isn’t generally a good thing for stock prices.
In any event, it didn’t last. Over the past 48 hours the Dow is down more than 3%, with many, many individual stocks down far more.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Is the Stock Market "Courting Catastrophe?" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
On the surface, it seems like a “normal” trading day in the SPX. It is not. The chart gives it away by showing the daily volume already at the to of its daily range and it’s not yet 1:00 pm.
Back in 2006 I had the privilege of talking with Andrew Smithers, who was part of the investigation team to determine what caused the Crash in 1987. He had been interviewed by Barrons Magazine in a now famous article entitled, “Courting Catastrophe.”
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Post ZIRP Stock Market and Gold Era / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
The Federal Reserve finally mustered the courage to end its radical zero-interest-rate-policy experiment this week. Its quarter-point rate hike announced on the seventh anniversary of ZIRP kicks off the long road to normalization. This leaves the stock markets and gold in unprecedented uncharted territory. The Fed has never before attempted to exit ZIRP, let alone in the midst of such extremely distorted markets.
The Fed’s ZIRP saga symmetrically ended 7 years to the day after it began way back in mid-December 2008. That was just after the dark heart of that year’s once-in-a-century stock panic, which struck terror into the Bernanke Fed. The benchmark S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had plummeted 30.0% in a single month in October, and then plunged another 11.4% from those brutal lows in the subsequent month.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Stock Market Something Strange is Going On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that the data feed to all the websites from the stock exchanges is having issues. StockCharts, Bloomberg and ForexPros appear to be in limbo. As far as I can tell, this is accurate, but who knows what goes on when the system is “off?”
This may be a way to discourage trades, since one can hardly know if he/she is getting an accurate quote. There is no report from ZeroHedge on this issue, which I find strange.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
SPX Defending 2000 Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
I spent some time reviewing my Cycles chart to verify its accuracy. You may recall that I had suggested about two weeks ago that December 9 would be the “ideal day” for a Master Cycle low (258 days). Instead, it may have fallen on Monday, December 14, at 11:39 am. You might say that it was 4.3 calendar days from the average length of time, on day 263. I don’t have the exact figure any more, but I had done a study that showed that over 90% of all Cycle bottoms happen within 4.3 days of their normal date.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
The Fed Rate Hike Will Trigger a $9 Trillion Financial Markets Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday, the Fed has hiked interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%.
It is the first rate hike in 10 years. And it is now clear that the Fed is not only behind the ball in terms of raising rates… but that it has now primed the financial system for another 2008-type meltdown.
By way of background we need to consider the relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro.
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Thursday, December 17, 2015
SPX Breaks a Trifecta of Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has declined beneath its 200-day at 2062.12, its 50-day at 2061.90 and its mid-Cycle support at 2060.98. In case you have been stopped out, this is a confirmed sell signal. We may see a very fast, deep decline, so stay on the alert and stay short.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Interest Rate Decision / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Stock Market S&P 500 Rally Might Prove Short-Lived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: AnyOption
To much fanfare, the Federal Open Market Committee made the decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2006 in a unanimous decision approved by all voting members. This marks the beginning of a tightening cycle that forecasts another 4 rate increases over 2016, putting rates near 1.50% by the end of 2016 should the United States economy avoid a recession. When looking at corporations and the main sources of growth over the past few years, interest rate normalization is largely a negative indication for equity valuations as it diminishes the viability of cheap borrowing to finance buybacks. Although the announcement of a hike was forecast to dent equity benchmarks, especially the S&P 500, the cash session saw a 1.45% rally in the index despite the headwinds approaching. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Risk ON? Risk OFF? Find Out Where Your Money Lies / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
I have an urgent new report to share with you today, so let's dive right in ...
Here is the opening paragraph of the just-published, subscriber-level report from our friends at Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent financial forecasting firm.
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Thursday, December 17, 2015
Stock Market Finally .25... Bullish Statement.... Gradual.... Bull-Bear At 8%.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
The world has waited for years it seems for that first rate hike, since the economy was supposedly improving. Month after month, and report after report, for well over a year the market couldn't decide whether Fed Yellen would finally raise rates that quarter of a percent. You would think it would be slam dunk if things were rosy, but we all knew they really weren't, so she refused to raise. ISM Manufacturing Report is in decline. Services going the wrong way as well. It's hard to raise rates when the economy can't get out of its own way. The pressure kept mounting, however, as the Yellen knew the street wanted to see some confidence, since she kept saying that things were getting better. She finally did the dirty deed this afternoon. I'm sure she feels mixed, since we are contracting on manufacturing. It's truly unheard of to raise rates, even though they were at zero, in a declining economy. The key to the whole thing was the statement after the raise.
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Thursday, December 17, 2015
SPX Sports a 7-point Reversal Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has now formed a seven-point reversal, normally seen as a five-point reversal. This is typical when there exists a need for delay combined with a high degree of emotion in the market. It appears to be challenging the Intermediate-term resistance at 2073.31.
The sell signal is reaffirmed when SPX has fallen again beneath the 200-day Moving Average at 2067.31. Confirmation that the sell signal is still supportable when SPX falls beneath today’s open where the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline lies at 2045.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Junk Bond Market Crash Stock Market Warning! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We are approaching the most anticipated and crucial week of the past seven years, and the global markets have been selling off. Last week, saw crude oil, junk bonds and the stock market competing with one another, while on their way down. Is there a connection between the three, or is it just a co-incidence that all three have fallen concurrently? Is the fall of one market, signaling a warning sign to the other(s)?
If you have any interest in either market, by way of investments, or if you are planning to become a part of the market, this article is for you. The junk bond markets are flashing a red signal, therefore, you should heed the warning.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Stock Market Expanding Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Thursday, 12/10/15, stock indices rose because (so all the pundits reckon) Fed Chair Yellen made a speech reinforcing her determination to begin raising interest rates on December 16. Friday, 12/11/15, the next day, stock indices plummeted because, well, for the same reason. In bubbles, indices can rise or fall for exactly the same reason.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Fed Interest Rate Hike Stock Market Crash Bear Apocalypse? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's D-day for the stock market according to the bears when an Fed interest rate hike of 0.25% is expected to at least confirm a stocks bear market is already underway and even said will herald a stock market apocalypse crash, 'End Times', which has been consistently re-iterated by the consensus and BlogosFear since the August stocks plunge (correction). Though as the below chart illustrates that reality does not match the intensity of bear market rhetoric, that of double and triple tops, head and shoulder patterns, 5th waves and domed houses, all utilised each month as irrefutable proof with religious zeal that the stocks bull market is finally over, that this month has coalesced around today's FOMC meeting decision, with the apocalypse scheduled to occur at 2pm eastern time, 7pm UK.
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Share Buybacks just another Wall Street Scam / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without one.
Chinese Proverb
Wall Street has a new hobby use good money to create the illusion that all is well; only unlike most hobbies, the intent is to distort reality and reward lazy insiders for doing next to nothing. Gone are the days of actually trying to improve the bottom line, by improving efficiency, find new markets, etc.; now the idea is simply cut the supply of outstanding shares, thereby magically boosting the EPS. Why are executives doing this with such impunity? The “safe harbor” rule passed in 1982, essentially allows corporations to repurchase shares without having to face charges of manipulating the price of their shares. Before the passage of this rule, stock repurchases were next to zero. In fact, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin both share the sentiment that stock buybacks should be forbidden by the SEC because they are a form of market manipulation.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Stock Market Due for a Pop-n-Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that SPX may do a pop-n-drop that may be over by or near 10:00 am. The reason is that the decline from 2080.33 has taken 42 hours so far. 10:00 completes the 43rd hour.
I have additional conflicts today. A dear friend of mine died and his funeral is later this morning. I may not return to my office until later this afternoon.
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