Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Inside the Uranium Market’s Secret World / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
Mired in secrecy, the uranium market hopes to someday offer price transparency. To whom will this ‘real' uranium price become transparent? Industry insiders know well before the general investing public ever finds out.Utility fuel managers compete with a few handfuls of fuel brokers for the best price break. Utilities complain about the unwelcome speculators who've entered the market. and utility spokesman predict a long-term price about one-half of the US$122/pound price indicator announced in Nuclear Market Review this past Friday (another consulting service chose $125/pound for their ‘price indicator'). Some uranium miners forecast a price racing past $200/pound. Who is gaming whom? Or is this all part of the negotiations process between producers and end-users?
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Wednesday, May 23, 2007
A Uranium Investing Buffet in Texas / Commodities / Uranium
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes : I'm here in Corpus Christi, Texas for the U2007 Global Uranium Symposium, which started on Monday.
That night, we got a tour of the USS Lexington, known as "The Blue Ghost." It's a real piece of history — battling her way through World War II, the big ship survived a torpedo hit and even a kamikaze attack.
Of course, the Uranium Symposium is really about the future. And that's why the entire day was filled with fascinating presentations on my favorite white-hot metal. Heck, after the tour of the Lexington, we ate dinner on the ship and listened to another talk on uranium. Today, I want to tell you what I learned at this buffet of information.
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
China's Battle for African Uranium / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
There is an ongoing global war for energy security, which appears to be politically inspired. China and Russia are the main opponents, especially in Africa, but have rivaled each other, over the past several years, in Central Asia. The goal for both nations is not only energy security but political influence and alliance over their targeted territories.As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Sunday night's revelations that China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) may strengthen its ties to UraMin could represent a broader picture than an ordinary acquisition of a near-term uranium producer.
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - Precious Points: A Bounce is a Bounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
“A continuation of reverses (signaling continued weakness) would most likely continue to trigger liquidation of large gold positions and put downward pressure on metals… What gold needs to get its groove back is a rebound in the economy with an uptick in inflation.” ~Precious Points: Don't Fear the Repo , May 13, 2007
The Fed continued reducing the money supply this week by failing to place as many dollars through repos as were removed at maturity. Not surprisingly then, metals continued their downward slide through the early part of last week.
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
Bee's Global Losses at 80% due to Global Warming and Impact of Peak: Oil, GDP and CO2 / Commodities / Climate Change
By: David_Petch
Recently, beekeepers have reported losses of up to 80% of their hives from various locations around the globe. Over the past month, there have been several different hypotheses proposed for the sudden disappearance of bees recently coined “Colony Collapse Disorder” (CCD):
• Transmissions from cell phones might be killing bees http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/wildlife/article2449968.ece . Cell phones and their networks have been around for 20 years, so a sudden decline due to phones is highly improbable.
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
What's Next for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
So silver has once again renewed its acquaintance with the 200 day moving average and the dirges regarding the death of a silver bull renew their solemn chants.
Why the fear and concern amongst silver analysts and silver investors in general? Various indicators suggest a potential breakdown in prices with bearish connotations. Now that raises one or two questions themselves. For one, what constitutes the end of a bull market?
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 20th May 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Wednesday was a decisive downside break below a 7 month up trend line. Is this the start of a new BEAR or is it just a continuation of a wide year long lateral trend?
SOME SURPRISING STATISTICS
This past Wednesday I had the pleasure of making a telecom presentation to the Calgary Chapter of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts. The Topic was “GOLD – Invest/Speculate/Gamble, Decisions, Decisions”. I wouldn't go into the presentation here but I thought that you might be interested in some of the statistics that I had come up with in the process of putting the presentation together. The statistics involved a review of the performance of various Gold Indices over the past 11 years, encompassing one major bear and one major bull market. The Indices reviewed were grouped into their “quality” sectors of QUALITY, SPECULATIVE and GAMBLING. These were:
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Gold is Setting the Stage for Another Flat Summer / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Donald_W_Dony
Though Gold remains in a stable long-term up trend, there is some weakness building over the 2-3 weeks. Is this the beginning of another flat summer season? Technical evidence seems to be pointing in that direction.
Gold has been trading since mid-2006 in a series of gradual ladder steps upward. Each major low has progressed higher or at least equal to the last step. This is the normal pattern for a developing up trend. In the case of the last low in early March 2007 (see Chart 1)
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Saturday, May 19, 2007
Gold Spooked by IMF Sales Speculation - Gold Stock Valuations 4 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Zeal_LLC
This week the International Monetary Fund, which has long commanded the world's third largest official holding of gold bullion, once again made some noise about selling 400 tonnes of its gold. Such a sale would represent about an eighth of the IMF's total holdings, and as usual such tidings spooked the markets.
So far in its secular bull, gold has climbed 181% higher since April 2001. Interestingly, the IMF has been periodically announcing that it is considering gold bullion sales over the majority of this entire six-year span. The recurring threat of IMF gold sales is just another brick in the great wall of worries that gold has handily overcome.
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Friday, May 18, 2007
Gold Breaks Major Support Levels, So That's It for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Golly – what a great market to short! And isn't it funny to think that gold just recorded fresh all-time highs against the world's major currencies..."
SO THAT'S IT in gold then. The bull market that peaked in May 2006 finally gave up the ghost this week.
At least, that's what Wall Street is saying. No wonder private investors are selling out, too.
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Thursday, May 17, 2007
Gold Immune to Debasement, Default, and Devaluation - The Golden Thorn in the Flesh - Part 2 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Professor_Emeritus
Concluding Part of a Series of Two (The Dynamics of Deflation - The Golden Thorn in the Flesh - Part 1)
The topsy-turvy world of central bank gold sales
Here is a passage from my 1998 book entitled Gold and Interest that will soon be released as an e-book.
As these pages are written (late 1997), chrysophobes make much of the weak dollar-price of gold and of the fact that more central banks, including the Swiss, join the company of those that have been dumping gold on the market. In addition, self-styled experts on deflation submit that, while under an inflationary spiral gold hoards may have been a reasonable investment, gold is the worst possible place to be under a deflationary spiral.
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Thursday, May 17, 2007
The Bubbling Metals : Zinc, Copper, Aluminium, Uranium Silver and Gold / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Aden_Forecast
The metals have been on a tear. The base metals have been rising sharply with several hitting new highs. Whether it's nickel, lead, copper, zinc or aluminum, they've all risen sharply while platinum soared to record highs. And it's not just the metals, the entire gold universe has been hot. Uranium continues to defy gravity as it jumped well above $100, while crude oil sits above the $60 level.
The stock market has been hot too. It's been getting most of the publicity as it keeps hitting record highs. And while the stock market is indeed bullish, over the past eight years the Dow Industrials is still down 58% compared to gold. So the percentage gains have simply been better in gold and the other metals.
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Thursday, May 17, 2007
Is Salter Duck Water Power The Uranium Banana Skin? / Commodities / Uranium
By: Bob_Kirtley
Recently, we wrote an article on the possible threats to the uranium bull market and nuclear power in general. In this article we will explore what we believe is the biggest single threat to the long term position of nuclear power with uranium as a fuel.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2007
The London Gold Pool Revisited! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mario_Innecco
Back in the 1960s when the dollar was still fixed to gold at a rate of $35 per troy ounce the United States Treasury and the other financial “policy makers” of the time were having more and more difficulty in maintainig this fixed rate of $35 in the London and European foreign exchange markets.
From 1933 to 1975 gold could not be traded in the United States so there was no official market in New York. The major reason for this difficulty in keeping gold pegged at $35 per troy ounce was that the U.S. government was printing dollars with no corresponding increase in its gold reserves and as a result the participants in the market started exchanging these inflated dollars for real thing!
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Wednesday, May 16, 2007
GOLD THOUGHTS - The core CPI is the “WMD” of the Federal Reserve's inflation commitment / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Only the truly deluded believe that the core consumer price index released for the U.S. on Tuesday has any true meaning. Only those trying to rationalize the continuation of the hedge fund bubble in U.S. financial markets give it any consideration. The core CPI is the “WMD” of the Federal Reserve's inflation commitment. According to one of the pseudo gurus on CNBC that day, 40% of core CPI is the nonsensical housing measure. Did you buy or rent a house in the past month?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Silver Market: May 2006 verses May 2007 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Bob_Kirtley
Last May 2006, we saw the “sell in May and go away” crowd in action and wondered if we would see a repeat of this sell off in 2007. The truth is that we do not know what the herd will do but we do have a couple of observations that show that Silver is in a vastly different position this year to last year.
Taking a look at the chart for the time frame in question we can see a number of differences between May 2006 and May 2007.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007
GOLD Analysis : May 2006 verses May 2007 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Bob_Kirtley
In May 2006 we saw the “sell in May and go away” strategy in action and wondered if we are to get the same again. The truth is that we do not know but we do have a couple of observations that we thought were worthy of your attention .
If we take a look at the chart for the period concerned we can see a number of differences between May 2006 and May 2007.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Gold Market Update - COT Report Bearish / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
In the last update, published on or after 16th April, we expected gold to drop back from the $690 area due to the bearish COT structure, and that is what has happened. The latest COTs are not good news for bulls, with the Commercial shorts still at a high level - high enough to preclude a significant advance in the near future, and to maintain the risk of a substantial decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Silver Market Update - Double Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The silver chart should strike fear into the hearts of silver investors. There is no Ascending Triangle on the chart (from last May's highs), as some claim, instead the pattern is looking more and more like a large Double Top, with the second peak taking the form of a Head-and-Shoulders top.
Before anyone graciously goes to the trouble of enlightening the writer about the wonderful fundamentals for silver, let me say this - don't bother, I know about them - and so does the market, that's the trouble, they may already be fully discounted by the market.
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Sunday, May 13, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 13th May 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
It looked like gold just fell off the cliff on Thursday. On the two previous occasions that gold took such a fall we had a good several week rally within a day or two after. Are we getting one again?
GOLD : LONG TERM
Still no movement in the long term P&F chart despite the plunge on Thursday. So we wait another week before reviewing the chart.
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