Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 04, 2018
Gold: Patiently Waiting for… Nothing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold started the month with an upswing, silver soared and… Silver stocks declined. Yes, you read that right. Big upswings can be bullish developments, but it’s definitely not true in all cases. For instance, in this case, one could say that while it’s true that gold moved higher, it failed to move to the late-March high, let alone break above it. Why is gold not moving decisively in any direction? What’s it waiting for? Was gold’s early-April rally just a late April fool’s joke?
Let’s start with the shocker – silver stocks (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Crude Oil Price Rally Is Likely / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices seesawed at the start of the week before jumping close to multi-year highs on geopolitical concerns, with Brent hitting $70 and WTI at $65. However, geopolitical pressure is only able to influence oil prices to such a degree because the market is fundamentally getting tighter.
Ongoing declines in Venezuela and concerns about heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran have significantly raised the risk premium for oil, even as some short-term factors recently pushed up prices.
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Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Orange Juice Commodity Price Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – $139.20
Patterm – price looks to be generally in an uptrend with a secondary low in place with a recent test of that higher low turning price back up.
Fibonacci – the higher low was just above the 88.6% retracement level which is normal for the first correction in a new bull market as first corrections often make deep retracements while the most recent low looks to have found support at the 76.4% level. The higher low was at support from the 88.6% angle and price looks to have once again found support at that angle.
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Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Gold Sector is on a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan updates the gold and silver charts.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.
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Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Review of Gold, Silver and Copper Charts and Implications of the Latest COTs / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Clive_Maund
We've certainly got plenty to look at in coming days, but perhaps a good place to start is with a review of some of the latest COTs, because of their implications for the immediate future. The following charts make very clear why those in control of publishing COT data hold up its release for three days (the data is always for Tuesday's close) so that those at the top of the food chain can position themselves comfortably to benefit from early knowledge of what's going on before the ordinary shmuck does—observe how the uptrends in both copper and the broad market S&P 500 index presaged by the COTs have already started by the end of the week. In looking at the charts, keep in mind that markets were closed on Friday.
Monday, April 02, 2018
This Will Be The Hottest Commodity of 2018 / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
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Saturday, March 31, 2018
It’s Not Yet Time for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we noted that Gold’s quarterly close would be a key marker for Gold’s immediate breakout potential. Gold was seemingly on course for its highest quarterly close since 2012 until it reversed back below quarterly resistance at $1330/oz. Hence, an imminent break to the upside is unlikely and gold watchers will have to remain patient. It’s not yet Gold’s time. It will be soon enough.
One catalyst for the most recent strength in Gold (the correction in equities) appears to have faded as the S&P 500 has held its 200-day moving average. A sustained rebound in equities while bond yields correct would not be particularly bullish for Gold. The obvious reason is capital is flowing into equities and not Gold. A rebound in equities amid a temporary reduction in inflation expectations would equate to stable or rising real yields.
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Friday, March 30, 2018
Silver Mining Stocks SIL ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The silver miners’ stocks have really languished since mid-2016, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower. With gold out of favor, silver and its miners have largely been left for dead and forgotten. This sector is deeply mired in universal apathy and bearishness. But since silver stocks can skyrocket when silver decisively rallies again, it’s important to keep an eye on silver miners’ fundamentals like their recent Q4’17 results.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities. They serve to re-anchor perceptions.
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Gold’s Old Friend Comes Back / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Remember LIBOR? The interest rate which soared during the global financial crisis? It’s on the rise again, but almost no one is paying adequate attention to it. We are – and we will analyze for you what this means for the gold market.
Hello LIBOR, My Old Friend
Simon and Garfunkel sang about darkness, the old friend. We can refer these words to LIBOR which has come to talk with us again. I bet you remember the Great Recession well. But let me briefly remind you that LIBOR soared in 2008 as banks were reluctant to lend to each other. The stress in the financial system fueled fears, increased risk premia and made LIBOR rise. Gold shined then. Just see the chart below.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Building The World's Largest Solar Project / Commodities / Solar Energy
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia wants to pour $200 billion into solar to build the world's largest solar project.
The Saudi sovereign wealth fund and SoftBank Group Corp. of Japan jointly announced plans to build a solar project that is staggering in size – 200 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. That would be about 100 times larger than some of the largest projects in the world right now. "It's by far the biggest solar project ever," Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank said at a news conference Tuesday in New York after signing a nonbinding agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Can You Imagine $5000 GOLD? – I can, Here’s Why / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Oil Prices Vs. Production: See the "Elephant" Almost Everyone Ignores / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
If production drives prices, how does oil rise 14x when production trends sideways for 10 years?
There's a widespread assumption that supply and demand drive oil prices. Almost all economists base their oil forecasts entirely on this premise, and so do many speculators.
If the oil industry ramps up production and increases supply, economists expect a drop in oil prices. If production decreases, or some other factors hint at supply constraints, they anticipate a rise in oil's price.
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Outlook for Gold – Same but Different / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
“Some things never change. Some things do.” You might be wondering why we are quoting one of the lines from the Matrix movie. The reason is because that’s exactly what we can say about the gold market and the price patterns in it. The thing that never changes is the fact that gold will always somehow react to the fundamental news, but the way it reacts will vary over time. Moreover, this quote could describe the situation with the current analogies and price patterns in gold, silver and mining stocks. Because of the trade-war-based rally, they changed, but something didn’t. The outlook that they imply.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Petroyuan and Gold - The Single Biggest Change in Capital Markets of All Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“China’s launch on Monday of its crude futures exchange will improve the clout of the yuan in financial markets and could threaten the international primacy of the dollar, argues a new report by Hayden Briscoe, APAC head of fixed income at UBS Asset Management. ‘This is the single biggest change in capital markets, maybe of all time,’ Briscoe said in a follow-up telephone interview.” – Kate Duguid, Reuters, 3-26-2018
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Silver Futures Report and JP Morgan Record Silver Bullion Holding Is Extremely Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Silver Futures Report, JP Morgan Record Silver Bullion Holding Is Extremely Bullish
– JP Morgan Continues Adding To Massive Silver Bullion Holdings (see chart)
– Silver Speculators Go Short – Which Is Extremely Bullish
– Stunning Silver COT Report: One For the Ages (see chart)
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
When Two Are Fighting, Gold Wins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Do you hear the military march? The world’s largest economies are flexing their muscles and preparing for war. Will gold win the trade conflict between the United States and China?
So It Begins
Trade war. This topic dominated the recent days. Last week, President Trump announced plans for tariffs on about $60 billion of Chinese imports. In response, Liu He, China’s vice-prime minister, told Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary, that China is ready to defend its interests. Indeed, on Friday the country announced plans to impose tariffs on about $3 billion of U.S. imports. So are we at war?
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
GOLD - GATA IS AT IT AGAIN / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
A new phrase has been added to our lexicon of late, and that is what has become known as "fake news." This new phraseology can be aptly applied to that which is presented by our old friends at the GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action) committee.
GATA has been trying to convince all those who are willing to listen that it is not its fault that the metals market dropped from 2011 to 2015 (where silver lost 75% of its value). Rather than admitting that it was not able to foresee a standard market correction -- which I warned about before it happened -- it has been focusing on that big bad scapegoat named "manipulation." And, it takes bits and pieces of what people say in order to "prove" its point.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Physical Gold Production May Be Peaking, But There Is No Shortage In Paper Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Gold production numbers for 2017 are still being compiled but estimates call for the first annual decline in mine output since 2008.The gold price fell dramatically in the months following the 2011 peak in prices. It has languished at, or near, the cost of production for years. Low gold prices are having a predictable effect on mine output.
Monday, March 26, 2018
Hi-Ho Silver! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Peter_Degraaf
If the latest COT report for silver gets any more bullish than the one released on March 23rd, commercial traders will have to go ‘net long!’ As it is, they reduced their ‘net short’ position to the lowest number in many years, down to just 4,000 contracts – barely 2% of the total open interest! This is bullish action! As recently as January 16th the number of ‘net short’ positions was 50,000, and the percentage of open interest was 26%. (Charts are courtesy Goldchartsrus.com unless specified).
Monday, March 26, 2018
Trade War and Silver CoT – Details and Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold soared by the end of the week. Miners didn’t – the HUI didn’t even move above the previous March highs. Silver’s performance was rather mixed, but closer to the one of miners than the one of gold. Why did gold rally? Why didn’t miners rally? How can the silver CoT numbers help in this case?
Let’s start with the first question. Why did gold rally in the final part of the previous week? The first reason was likely the increased tension regarding interest rates and Powell’s first Fed meeting. This was likely to cause only temporary volatility and it seems that it did. Based on how mining stocks performed relative to the gold market, it certainly seems that the precious metals market wants to go down. But, there’s another fundamental development that triggered another rally in gold (to a smaller extent) – the trade war. This term is too far-fetched – it’s just a trade battle for now. Let’s focus on the practical implications for the precious metals market. In short, just like a few threats between the U.S. and North Korea, the trade tensions between the U.S. and China are a geopolitical event.
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