Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 19, 2016
Gold and Silver New Bull or Bear Market Rally ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Rambus_Chartology
Buckle Up ,Pour yourself your favorite beverage , and take some time . This Report will be an in depth Chartology analysis of the current situation in this ever interesting and often exasperating market we are participating in. Oh and don’t forget to open your mind. Lets begin.
I would like to start the Weekend Report by looking at a combo chart which has the US dollar on top and gold on the bottom, which shows you a better version of the positive divergence the US dollar had vs gold in 2011. First note the red arrows on the US dollar and gold back in 2008 when gold was making a high, and the US dollar was making a low, which is what you would expect. Now look at the two red arrows in 2011 whch shows the all time high for gold and a higher low for the US dollar vs the 2008 low. Gold rallied almost 1200 points to its 2011 bull market high, but the US dollar made a higher low. If they were on an equal footing the US dollar should have traded much lower when gold was making its all time high. That’s how I viewed the positive divergence for the US dollar vs gold.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Radical Gold Under Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold was again blasted to new post-election lows this week, further trashing contrarian sentiment. The Fed proved more hawkish than expected in its rate-hike-trajectory forecast, unleashing heavy selling in gold futures. This catapulted gold bearishness back up to extremes not seen in a year. Investors are once again convinced gold is doomed, and thus radically underinvested. That’s actually super-bullish for gold.
It certainly wasn’t the Fed’s second rate hike in 10.5 years this week that hammered gold. Actually that was universally expected. Federal-funds-futures traders had assigned it an average 96% probability in the two weeks leading up to that rate hike. If the Fed had simply raised its federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to a 0.50%-to-0.75% range, gold-futures speculators would’ve likely yawned. They knew it was coming.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Gold & Miners Bottoming Signs / Commodities / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Savage
A couple of months from now are traders going to look back and wonder how they could have ignored the bottoming signs?
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Goldman Sachs is Talking Nonsense Again: Shale will not affect Global Oil Supply until Price hits $85 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Latest headline: “Goldman Sachs Warns the Saudis: ‘’U.S. Shale Will Respond’’”http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-The-Saudis-US-Shale-Will-Respond.html
Reminds me of when we all used to sing-along the company song ”House Prices Always go up”; and why not? If you could get the suckers to buy that idea, selling them AAA-rated (toxic) collateralized debt obligations concocted by Goldman Sachs, was a synch. Ah...Goldman Sachs...the Divine God’s Workers; now they are experts on shale oil...what next...tropical fish? So now they are telling their customers “shale oil is a buy”, that means presumably, they are long and they are scrambling to unload their positions?
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Seasonality Favors Gold, Silver and Junior Mining Stocks Going Into Year End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Summary
Gold and silver could once again be ready to rally possibly starting in days or in the beginning of 2017.
Precious Metals usually bottom at year end then have massive rallies in the New Year.
Remember the lower it goes the higher it runs and the more gains made in the following year.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Fed Raised Rates 0.25% – Rising Interest Rates Positive For Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% as expected yesterday leading to gold falling to lows last seen in February 2016 and the dollar rising to its highest level against the euro in 14 years.
Gold actually settled higher at $1,163.70 for the day yesterday. However gold futures slid to $1,156.70 an ounce in electronic trading on the rate decision at 1400 EST and soon gold was pushed down 1.3% to 10 month lows after the decision in less liquid after hour markets.
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Gold and Silver Now What ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
I had a completely different post in mind for tonight, but the action in the PM complex has changed my mind. Since the US elections the PM complex has had a hard go of it trapping many bulls in their long positions. The magnitude of this decline especially in gold has been unrelenting in nature, which is how a bull trap is set. Just a short five weeks ago all looked good for this sector as it had one of the biggest rallies in history off the January low for the PM stocks. There wasn’t anything to suggest that five weeks ago the plunge was coming, but since then, there have been many clues that all was not right with the PM sector.
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
The Silver Tsunami / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
At this point in the cycle, the silver market should be relatively easy for the average person to enter. Prices are beginning to move back toward natural supply and demand equilibrium, as large disruptions are occurring between the positioning of dominant futures speculators that have kept futures prices entrapped for nearly 6 years.
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Take Advantage of Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium Different Seasonal Trends / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dimitri_Speck
Prices in financial and commodity markets are exhibiting seasonal trends. This applies to the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium as well.
The chart below depicts the seasonal trends of the gold price over a time period of 45 years.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Shariah Gold Standard Is “Revolutionary” – Mark Mobius / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
One of the world’s leading investors, Mark Mobius told a gold conference in Dubai that the new ‘Shariah Gold Standard’ is both “innovative and revolutionary” and importantly will bring “transparency” to the physical gold market which suffers from a lack of trust.
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Deutsche Bank Turns Over Proof of Metals Price Rigging / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
Some say there is honor among thieves. Perhaps, but apparently not among the banking class of criminals when they are under serious legal and regulatory pressure.
German behemoth Deutsche Bank agreed last spring to assist plaintiffs and regulators by ratting out their co-conspirator banks in a wide-ranging scheme to rig prices and cheat clients.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
U.S. Oil Shale Faces A Reality Check / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
By: OilPrice_Com
The collapse of oil prices has forced the U.S. shale industry to slash production costs. In order to improve the “breakeven” costs for the average shale well, the industry has deployed three general strategies: improving techniques and technology, such as drilling longer laterals or using more frac sand; focusing drilling on the sweet spots; and demanding lower prices from oilfield service companies. All three of those strategies led to a decline in the breakeven price for a shale wells.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
Agri-Commodities: Birthing a New Bull Market? / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
An investment reality is that neither bear nor bull markets last forever. From high, July 2014, to low, October 2016, the Agri-Food Price Index fell 23%. Since that low, this index of 18 Agri-Commodity prices has risen 19%, and is nearing a new 52-week high. If we accept the popular notion that a 20% rise from a low signals a new bull market, Agri-Commodity prices may be birthing a new bull market. Chart below is for Agri-Food Price Index over the past year.
Monday, December 12, 2016
Buying Gold Into A Fed Hike: As Dumb As It Sounds? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Bob_Kirtley
The Fed will hike rates this week. The US Dollar is strengthening. Fiscal policy is about to ignite economic growth. The ECB has reduced its rate of QE purchases. It doesn’t sound like now is the time to be buying gold, does it? And yet, the setup is remarkably similar to this time last year, before the yellow metal put in a near 30% rally. What matters most is not what will happen, but what will happen relative to expectations. It is fair to say that the market has some lofty expectations built in at present, which is why it could be a case of buying the rumour and selling the fact over coming months.
Monday, December 12, 2016
Tech Breakthrough Could Make This The Biggest Winner Of OPEC’s Cut / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
As far as the markets are concerned, OPEC’s 32.5-million bpd output cut deal agreed to two weeks ago could go either way, and the uncertainty makes it anyone’s guess—but MCW Energy, the pioneer of breakthrough clean oil sands extraction in Utah, is not concerned:
If oil prices remain low, its production costs are dramatically reduced, and in any scenario, its breakthrough technology makes everything from Utah’s vast oil sands to the Permian Basin’s massive offerings easier to extract.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
Gold and Gold Stocks Setup for Post-Fed Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold and gold mining stocks have been very oversold but have struggled to rally. The sector looked to be starting a rebound until Friday's decline which pushed Gold to a new low. However, positive divergences remain in place as gold stocks and Silver remain above their recent lows. While the Federal Reserve could say something hawkish next week, the setup continues to favor a rebound in the precious metals sector rather than an immediate decline to new lows.
Saturday, December 10, 2016
Gold Fools, US Dollar Bulls and The Long Term Outlook for Both Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Many experts penned numerous articles this year proclaiming that the Gold market was ready to take off and that 2016 would be the year that the Gold bull resumed its upward trend. They spoke of our high debt, a weak economy and listed a plethora of reasons as to why Gold was ready to soar. Needlessly to say, their fear mongering proved to be fruitless for instead of taking off, Gold nose dived. Early in the year we stated that we did not expect much from Gold this year; we wrote several articles but will highlight points from one of them as it adequately sums our overall theme for 2016.
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Saturday, December 10, 2016
Gold and Silver, Just the Facts Man / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
This first precious metals combo chart is one I try to show you at least twice a week so you can follow the price action as it’s unfolding in real time. Except for SLV the other indexes have now traded below their respective neckline for five weeks now. If you look at the sidebar you can see which sectors are doing the best and which ones are weakest. As you can see GLD has been by far the weakest of the four while SLV has been the strongest. To negate these H&S tops we would need to see the price action close back above the necklines. The necklines are your lines in the sand, above is bullish and below is negative.
Friday, December 09, 2016
Gold Futures Selling Exhausting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has suffered brutal, withering selling pressure in the month following the US presidential election. The stock markets’ surprise surge after Trump’s surprise win has led speculators and investors alike to rush for the gold exits. As usual the former group’s extreme selling came largely through gold futures. But this gold-futures dumping has been so severe that it is rapidly exhausting itself, a bullish omen for gold.
Friday, December 09, 2016
ECB ‘Bazooka’ Extended – Will Buy EUR 60 Billion Per Month Until At Least December 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
The ECB’s ‘Bazooka’ is back and ‘Super Mario’, the European Central Bank’s monetary magician did not disappoint QE addicted markets yesterday by extending ultra loose monetary policies and quantitative easing until at least December 2017.
The euro fell and gold rose 1.1% in euro terms from €1,090/oz to €1,102.85. Stocks globally moved higher, and European stocks look set for their best week since February, supported by the extended ECB currency printing and a calm, some would say complacent and irrationally exuberant, reaction to the Italian referendum.
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