Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, February 04, 2014
Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Extends Declines / Commodities / Crude Oil
On Monday, crude oil lost 0.84% as weaker-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data fueled concerns over crude oil demand. Thanks to this news, light crude closed the day below $97 for the first time since Jan 27.
Data released over the weekend showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to a six-month low, falling to 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December. This weaker-than-expected numbers raised questions about economic growth in the world's second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.) and weighted on the price of light crude.
Tuesday, February 04, 2014
NYMEX No Future For Crude Oil Futures / Commodities / Crude Oil
Potatoes to Oil
According to Leah McGrath Goodman's well-researched book “The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World's Oil Market", the start of Nymex oil trading was in major part due to traders who stumbled upon oil futures after screwing up Maine potato futures. Their trading “industry” or gambling party had been built on predicting the Maine potato harvest, and—much more importantly—trying to manipulate potato prices, to the point that regulators were finally forced to act. They shut down the potato futures market in 1976, after repeated defaults on physical deliveries of more than 25 000 tons of potatoes. As Goodman explains, the traders were forced to cast around for something else to trade. Then-Chairman of the Nymex, Michael Marks tried to boost futures trading in boneless beef and plywood, but that didn't work. In 1978 however, Marks hit on the right thing and introduced heating oil futures - which was the jackpot gusher that led to 30 years of good times.
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Tuesday, February 04, 2014
Now Is the Time to Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist
Gold has been in a downturn for more than two years now, resulting in the lowest investor sentiment in many years. Hardcore goldbugs find no explanation in the big picture financial numbers of government deficits and money creation, which should be supportive to gold. I have an explanation for why gold has been down—and why that is about to reverse itself. I'm convinced that now is the best time to invest in gold again.
Monday, February 03, 2014
Could Gold Surprise Investors in 2014? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: The demand for gold bullion is increasing. Each day there’s more evidence that suggests this phenomenon will continue. We see consumers buying gold bullion across the global economy. As a result, mints are working in overdrive mode to meet this demand and gold storage facilities are looking to add more vaults.
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Monday, February 03, 2014
Gold GLD ETF and the Intermediate Trend Trader / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
Before we get into the charts I have seen several questions on what type of trader is Rambus. There are basically three types of traders. The short term, the long term and the intermediate term. I’m an intermediate trader that looks for the impulse move when a consolidation, top or bottom is confirmed. It’s those moves where you can make the most money in the shortest period of time.
The markets are either building out at top, bottom or consolidation pattern at any given time. This is where it’s much harder to make profitable trades because they are in chopping mode with no real trend, just short term moves going nowhere. It’s when these tops, bottoms or consolidation patterns are completed is when you get your impulse move and a trend to follow. Being in an impulse move is much easier psychologically because the chopping action has finally ended. On the other hand, during an impulse move, you will run into small consolidation patterns that form along the way that many think is the end of the move but in most cases it’s just a pause that refreshes.
Monday, February 03, 2014
Gold and Silver Stocks Sector New Uptrend - Juniors to Lead the Charge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
We sold our Precious Metals sector holdings on Monday 27th January, which we had bought just a few weeks earlier, in order to sidestep a possible reaction. The reason for this was that both gold and silver had arrived at important trendline resistance and some of our juniors had become critically overbought after strong gains. Were we correct to sell at that point, in view of the building major uptrend across the sector?
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Sunday, February 02, 2014
Why is the Federal Reserve Tapering the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
In former times, the rise in the gold price was held down by central banks selling gold or leasing gold to bullion dealers who sold the gold. The supply added in this way to the market absorbed some of the demand, thus holding down the rise in the gold price.
As the supply of physical gold on hand diminished, increasingly recourse was taken to selling gold short in the paper futures market. We illustrated a recent episode in our article. Below we illustrate the uncovered short-selling that took the gold price down today (January 30, 2014).
Sunday, February 02, 2014
No Containing The Energy Subprime Rout / Commodities / Energy Resources
The Financial Subprime Model
The 2008 global financial crisis was “contained”, or at least plausibly denied for over 2 years before it went critical and caused a global stock market, financial, banking and economic crisis – the effects of which we are still living with, today. As Doug Short wrote this week on Market Oracle: “Contained” was the buzz word used to describe the U.S. subprime crisis in 2006-2007 until it was undeniable in 2008 that it was most certainly not contained. So then, the trillion dollar question is, how does one determine when a crisis is contained or developing into a contagion?” Incredible or unexpected price and production swings by double-digit percentage leaps, is one indicator
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Sunday, February 02, 2014
Gold And Silver – Calls For Explosive Upside In Precious Metals Misplaced / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
So far, January 2014 has become a part of the failed rally for gold and silver that was so widely expected in 2013. That has not stopped the renewed enthusiasm for 2014 being THE year for the long awaited rally-to-the-sky. Anyone who reads our commentaries on a regular basis knows that the most reliable source for what the market will do comes from the market itself.
The contention here is that almost everyone's focus is misplaced, and the reasons why gold and silver remain at low levels are not being given their proper due. It has to do more with the battle for world supremacy than anything else, a topic for another time.
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Saturday, February 01, 2014
Gold Stocks Ditch the Risk and Embrace the Upside / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
Adrian Day likes to think long term, and historical trends persuade him that the bull market in gold should continue for years to come. In this interview with The Gold Report, the founder of Adrian Day Asset Management explains why he expects a significant gold price recovery in the near future. In the short term, he counsels investors to choose companies that minimize risk through royalty agreements, joint ventures and robust balance sheets. In other words, companies with the means to seize profit-making opportunities, and Day shares the names of a handful that fit the bill.
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Saturday, February 01, 2014
Turning Point in Junior Gold Mining Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
It's not exactly news that gold mining stocks have been in a slump for more than two years. Many investors who owned them have thrown in the towel by now, or are holding simply because a paper loss isn't a realized loss until you sell.
For contrarian speculators like Doug Casey and Rick Rule, though, it's the best of all scenarios. "Buy when blood is in the streets," investor Nathan Rothschild allegedly said. And buy they do, with both hands—because, they assert, there are definitive signs that things may be turning around.
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Saturday, February 01, 2014
Tapering Blues for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The second tapering reduction, a further $10bn per month, was announced this week. It was we are told by the news channels fully expected. This is probably the initial reason why US Treasury prices rose on the news, because bears would have bought back their positions. However, weakness in emerging market currencies indicates that there is a safe-haven element developing in US Treasury bond prices.
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Friday, January 31, 2014
Silver Junior Stocks Struggles / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
It’s been an incredibly tough last couple years for the miners. Not only have they had to endure sharply falling metals prices, they’ve had to battle continually rising operating costs. For the producer companies this combination has been a margin killer. And for the non-producers it’s been flat-out devastating.
Mining companies that are non-producers obviously don’t generate any revenue. They are junior-level companies in various stages of exploration and/or development. And they primarily rely on investor capital to fund their operations. In some cases they are able to procure bank loans, but this is the exception.
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Friday, January 31, 2014
Market Price Manipulation Awareness May Keep the Mainstream Away / Commodities / Market Manipulation
If the new-found mainstream awareness of price manipulation of precious metals is embraced with anything close to the impact of LIBOR and similar scandals, the news may ultimately be a sweet sorrow.
The Financial Times is a long time staunch defender of the status quo and therefore, by default, negative and misguided toward precious metals. Recently, for the first time, the publication broke a story about price manipulation in the gold market.
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Friday, January 31, 2014
Silver and Gold Prices Rangebound Before the Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The central bank driver world macro structure is in full can-kicking mode. The fuels that have built up are almost too numerous to mention, though some issues continue to be recycled as if they were needed to explain the latest potential spark.
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Friday, January 31, 2014
Silver Price Rally Could Mean Another 1,000% Bull Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Peter Krauth writes: Let's face it, 2013 was rough on silver.
The precious metal started out the year at $31, and ended at $19.50, continuing an overall slump dating back roughly to mid-2011.
That, however, obscures a massive run, like gold, that silver embarked on in 2001 when it was near $4, eventually topping out around $49 in April 2011. At its peak it generated a return of 1,091%.
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Thursday, January 30, 2014
Gold Price Faces Complex Recovery / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
On gold we are tracking an incomplete complex corrective recovery from 1181 which can be a double zigzag. If that is the case then gold should make another higher, in 1280-1300 to complete a second zigzag. Only a break of 1230 will suggest that top is already in place. In such case we will turn directly bearish on gold for possible move back to 1181.
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Thursday, January 30, 2014
Cyclical Bear in Stocks, a Catalyst for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The non-static, changing correlation between precious metals and equities is something we’ve written about several times in the past few years. We last wrote about this in June in Epic Opportunity in the Gold Stocks. The mainstream is entirely oblivious to the fact that gold stocks (and precious metals) can have rip-roaring bull markets when equities are in a bear market. The precursor to this is two-fold: precious metals are in a secular bull and the correlation between the two has been negative for more than a year. The current negative correlation has been in place for more than two years and now gold stocks have bottomed (in our view) and equities are looking toppy.
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Thursday, January 30, 2014
Gold Crybabies Are Born to Lose / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
Geologist, engineer, Midas-touch investor and financial newsletter publisher Lawrence Roulston has little patience for investors without the nerves to hold onto a good thing during tough times. Gold has been the main embodiment of value for thousands of years, Roulston points out, so why should tomorrow be different? In this interview with The Gold Report, Roulston has some tips on how to double down on gold investments and wipe away the tears.
The Gold Report: Let us be brutally frank, Lawrence. Is investing in gold dead as a reasonable investment strategy?
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Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires” / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
Bear markets always end. Has this one?
Evidence is mounting that the bottom for gold may be in. While there's still risk, there's a new air of bullishness in the industry, something we haven't seen in over two years.
An ever-growing number of industry insiders and investment analysts believe the downturn has come to a close. If that's true, it has immediate and critical implications for investors.
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