Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Election May Impact Near-Term Action in Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Metals broke out earlier in the year because there has likely never been so many fundamental reasons to buy gold and silver. We’ve seen economic turmoil, political strife, social unrest, a $3 trillion federal deficit, and a dollar weakened by fiscal and monetary stimulus – all happening at once.

How the markets finish the year will depend on whether these conditions persist.

The near-term bearish scenario for metals would probably have something in common with 2016. Donald Trump wins and investors feel more confident.

They could focus on buying risk assets, and they could be less motivated to buy safe-havens assets.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

The Most Profitable Way To Play The Gold Boom / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Silver Price Minor Dip Possible Before 2nd Major Upleg Starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he believes it is one of the best investments for these times.

With hyperinflation looming, silver has to be one of the best investments of these times, especially as it leverages gold's gains. This summer saw a spectacular high volume breakout from the giant base pattern that had been forming for years, as we can see on its latest 13-year chart, which is hardly surprising considering the Fed's white hot money creation. The breakout triggered a sharp run up that resulted in silver becoming heavily overbought in a zone of quite strong resistance, hence the reaction since early August, which is setting it up for the next big run.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Gold Price One Last Dip Likely Then Major Upleg to New Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at gold charts and explains why he believes the dollar price of gold will eventually skyrocket.

With a collapse in the dollar and hyperinflation now inevitable, it is clear that the dollar price of gold will eventually skyrocket, and when I say "eventually" I am not talking about in 5 or 10 years time. It is already starting to accelerate away to the upside and that means that the current dip has presented another buying opportunity, not just in gold itself but in silver and precious metals stocks too.

On gold's latest 13-year chart we can see that the giant Bowl pattern has already driven a breakout to new highs in recent months and in this context the minor reaction of recent weeks is a perfectly normal development that unwinds the overbought condition somewhat and rebalances sentiment. The Bowl pattern can also be described as a Cup, and very often a "Handle" forms to complement the Cup before further significant gains are made, which is a period of consolidation that proportion suggests could last a year or two. Should such a Handle now form it would clearly be a source of major annoyance and frustration to investors in the sector as it would mean their holdings would generally go nowhere for a year or two. However, things are deteriorating at such a rapid rate that it is considered most unlikely that gold would get bogged down in this manner.

The ongoing exponential rise in money creation to support a collapsing economy that has been made worse by the virus hysteria and disproportionate reaction of governments around the world means that the purchasing power of fiat most everywhere will decline at an accelerating rate, and since gold is "real money" that holds its value no matter what, it must therefore gain in price to compensate. What could therefore happen instead is that, rather than meander around for ages making a Handle, the steeply rising Bowl boundary generates a dramatic slingshot move higher in gold, which the current setup certainly makes possible, especially as it has just broken out to new highs. Before leaving the 13-year chart note the strong volume driving the advance up the right side of the Bowl and the strong volume indicators all of which indicates that a major bull market phase has begun, and with the 2011 highs having fallen, there is nothing to stop it. It is also interesting to observe how the freak March plunge, when everything was tanking, was contained and reversed by the Bowl boundary.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Smart Money Is Going All-In On This New Gold Frontier / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Gold Stocks Still Correcting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are still correcting, continuing to rebalance both technicals and sentiment.  This sector’s huge surge into early August spawned extreme overboughtness and universal euphoria, which are gradually being bled away.  This same necessary and healthy corrective process is underway in gold itself, which overwhelmingly drives gold-stock price levels.  This is leading to great buying opportunities.

Gold-stock speculators and investors are growing weary, wondering when miners’ next upleg will finally get running.  Fully 2.5 months have passed since the gold stocks were rocketing higher with gold last summer, generating great excitement.  Since then this sector has gradually ground sideways to lower, leaving traders increasingly discouraged.  More are abandoning gold stocks as weeks drag on into months.

Corrections certainly aren’t easy to weather psychologically.  Their mission is to eradicate the universal greed at preceding upleg toppings.  That means gutting traders’ enthusiasm for a hot sector that has just soared.  Losses unfolding and deepening over time are the only way to swing the sentiment pendulum back from euphoria to apathy to despair.  That requires the great majority of traders to be forced to capitulate.

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

It is the the massive debt. It cannot be serviced. It will collapse the whole system.

The gold, silver and cryptocurrencies charts are showing signs of going parabolic. The US dollar is close to confirming a massive breakdown.

Gold, silver and cryptocurrencies all provide “crisis value” by simply being an acceptable debt-based fiat alternative. It is only later in this crisis that we will see a divergence between cryptocurrency and precious metals.

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Silver's Coming Double Trigger Shotgun Price Explosion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

David Smith - Even in the competitive hunting/shooting community, few enthusiasts know about an arcane rifle known as a "double trigger shotgun." Essentially, it's a double-barrel shotgun having a trigger for each barrel.

This was an early day's design with the triggers located inside the trigger guard, back to front. It was possible to press both triggers at once, causing a double discharge, though for the most part this was not a good idea – since it caused twice the recoil, and was hard on both the shotgun and the shooter – especially if not anticipated.

Though this essay is not about shotguns, but rather silver, the above concept provides a perfect analogy for what I believe is in store – a double discharge for both silver demand and price in the reasonably near future!

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

The $126 Billion Gold Opportunity in Australia / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

Monday, October 26, 2020

Do You Own Your Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Whether you’re buying a brand new BMW or a second hand Range Rover, it’s necessary to secure clear title so you can sell or trade the vehicle in the future. If you purchase a home in The Hamptons or in the Vancouver suburbs, the title or warranty deed should ensure the property is unencumbered by a mortgage or tax lien. When acquiring gold, silver or platinum, you need documentation to prove you own the bullion and can take physical possession if desired. Without proper paperwork, you might not own the car, the mansion or the metal.
Do You Own Your Gold? | Nick BarisheffGold bars. Gold in the form of bullion.

While most people know the importance of owning an automobile or real estate outright, investors too often fail to obtain legal title to their precious metal holdings. This is an enormous and fundamental mistake. If you stash a handful of gold bars and silver coins in a home safe, you’re adequately covered, particularly if your bullion is insured with a rider to your homeowner’s policy. Possession, as it’s been said, is 9/10ths of the law. However, if your precious metals stack has outgrown your secret cellar vault, you’ll probably take the risks of self-storage into account and delegate someone else to store your bullion. In that case, it’s imperative to do your due diligence, making sure you have legal ownership of your wealth preservation stockpile.

Monday, October 26, 2020

The Top Gold Stock for 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

Sunday, October 25, 2020

Three Unstoppable Forces Set to Drive Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The threat of economically crippling lockdowns, the promise of unending monetary stimulus, and the uncertainty of game-changing political outcomes – this is the “new normal” for investors.

The COVID pandemic won’t be eradicated anytime soon. And even when it finally is, the economic and social costs will continue to be borne for years to come.

In such an environment, all conventional asset classes carry heightened risk. Certain types of assets, though, may now be well positioned to shine.

Friday, October 23, 2020

Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, mining stocks, and the USD Index have not been doing much recently. However, yesterday, this “inactivity” took quite a decisive shape, and unfortunately, things are not looking good for gold.

As you are all aware, gold tends to move conversely to the USD Index. Therefore, it’s useful to focus on the latter for signs that would influence the former. So, what does the current USDX outlook look like?

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Silver Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Despite recent headwinds, it looks to be clear sailing going forward for silver, according to recent forecasts from three financial services firms. 

“A higher gold price, along with the ongoing recovery in industrial demand, particularly from China, means that the price of silver is likely to rise in the year ahead,” Capital Economics said in a report published on Sept. 30.

“All in all, a market deficit in conjunction with a higher gold price should lift the price of silver to $25 and $27 per ounce by end-2020 and end-2021, respectively,” assistant commodities economist Samuel Burman wrote. He added, 

“Demand for non-interest bearing safe-haven assets, such as gold and silver, should rise as real yields in the U.S. drift a little lower. We forecast that the US ten-year nominal yield will fall to 0.50%, from 0.70% currently, by the end of this year and that it will remain at this level in 2021. The Fed has already stated that it will keep policy ultra-loose until at least 2023 and allow inflation to overshoot its target.”

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets slumped this week as stimulus talks faltered again in Washington.

Even though the White House upped its offer to $1.8 trillion, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused it – not wanting to give President Trump any kind of political victory ahead of the election.

Meanwhile, the President continues to campaign for stimulus. He is bucking Senate Republicans by offering to go even higher than $1.8 trillion.

Here’s what President Trump told Stuart Varney of Fox Business on Thursday:

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

An upward stepping GAP pattern for UNG and Natural Gas has our research team believing a strong upside price breakout may be pending. We believe the open gap patterns, which are below the current price levels, represent a building momentum based/bottom that has setup in UNG.  This pattern, if we are correct, may prompt a big breakout move in the near future.

THREE GAPS PATTERN & MOMENTUM BASE COMPLETE – WHAT NEXT?

These GAP patterns are similar to a Japanese Candlestick pattern called “Three Gaps”.  A Three Gaps pattern is typically associated with trending and suggests an exhaustion top may be near.  It is represented by three very clear open price gaps in a defined trend (up or down), as can be seen in the chart below.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro / Commodities / Copper

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Copper/Gold ratio is saying something. That something is that a cyclical, pro-inflation and thus pro-economic reflation metal shown earlier, remaining nominally positive on a down market day has, in relation to gold, taken out two important moving averages (daily SMA 50 & SMA 200) and is currently riding the short-term EMA 20 upward. RSI and MACD are positive.

Copper: Pro-cyclical inflation, pro-reflation, pro-economy.

Gold: Counter-cyclical, monetary, with inflationary utility.

Given the right circumstances (like desperate monetary and fiscal policy), which are in play on the wider macro, gold will probably do quite well moving forward. But maybe – for a while – not as well as some commodities if the Copper/Gold ratio really is up to something positive here.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation is back. OK, not inflation, but inflation expectations. As the chart below shows, they plunged during the coronavirus crisis, but they have already recovered. Currently, and based on the inflation-protected Treasury yields, Mr. Market expects that inflation will be, on average, 1.5 percent in the next five years and 1.7 percent in the next ten years.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

CLEAR PRICE CHANNEL MAY PROMPT BIG BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN MOVE IN OIL

In this report, I discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks.  While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation. Read below to learn more.

Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold price traded to a new all time high to well beyond the $2000 milestone after having held in a trading range at just below $1800 for most of the post corona crash bounce.