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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Bernanke vs. Keynes / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestment drives the economy. It creates jobs, builds factories, develops technology, and stimulates growth. When investment falls, spending slows, unemployment rises, and the economy languishes in persistent stagnation.

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

After Reflation Comes Hyper-Deflation, a Different Kind of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere’s a wealth of wisdom to be found in ancient Chinese proverbs. Not uncommonly one can find answers to the most complex problems today by reading the simple yet elegant epigrams found in any collection of ancient sayings.

One of the themes that runs like a thread in any book of Chinese proverbs is the honor the Chinese confer to the elderly. One such proverb advises anyone who is considering a new venture to “consult at least there older people before proceeding, then you will succeed.” Another one puts it much more succinctly: “The elderly: a national treasure.”

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

Mike Shedlock's Vacuous Deflation Market Calls Busted / Economics / Deflation

By: Robert_Murphy

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the last two years, I have gotten perhaps dozens of requests to "deal with" the deflationist approach of Mike "Mish" Shedlock. On his popular financial blog, Mish has been repeatedly patting himself on the back for correctly calling all the major trends in contrast to those economists (like Gary North and I) who naively think Bernanke has the power to raise prices if he so chooses.

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

U.S. Unemployment to Remain High Through 2011 and Beyond / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Stocks are up nearly 70% from their bear market lows. Corporate profits are rising. And the economy is expanding. Yet the unemployment rate continues to hover around 10%.

Neither President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus program, nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has generated enough good news to convince companies to hire meaningful numbers of new workers.

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

Ireland Bailout Consequences for Britain, Portugal Next? Stock Market Correction Over? / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIreland's Government drops the mantra of no bailout by finally coming clean to the Irish public that a multi-billion Euro bailout has been agreed ahead of markets opening on Monday. Many Irish citizens will be angry that they have been repeatedly lied to as a series of senior government politician's have stepped forward these past few weeks to make announcements that Ireland was not seeking a bailout when the facts where the complete opposite as an accelerating bank run was under way on Irish banks, with depositors having already pulled out an estimated Euro 25 billion.

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Economics

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Are We Living in the Federal Reserve's QE2 Twilight Zone? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Monday, an old friend sent me a link to a now virally famous cartoon clip via YouTube. The clip is a depiction of the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing in a simplified, humorous manner and has been viewed over 1.6 million times, not to mention it had a front and center showing on CNBC.

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Economics

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Fed's Hidden Agenda of Driving U.S. Into a Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Washingtons_Blog

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBen Bernanke has said that the Fed is trying to promote inflation, increase lending, reduce unemployment, and stimulate the economy. However, the Fed has arguably - to some extent - been working against all of these goals.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Quantitative Easing QE2 and the Looming Threat of a Crippling Debt Service / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe deficit hawks are circling, hovering over QE2, calling it just another inflationary bank bailout.  But unlike QE1, QE2 is not about saving the banks.  It’s about funding the federal deficit without increasing the interest tab, something that may be necessary in this gridlocked political climate just to keep the government functioning.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Global Financial System Crisis, Collapse in Consumer Spending, Unemployment, Rising Prices / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe hear stories about oil and about how it will probably move higher, perhaps to $150.00 a barrel and perhaps higher. This is the first time in more than three years that it has moved to lofty levels. The net speculative long position is more than 200,000 contracts, or about 35% higher than in 2007. Some economies are doing well, particularly in Asia and in Latin America, but not enough to create such higher prices. $60.00 a barrel would more nearly meet demand.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

The Sputtering U.S. Economy, Deflation Exactly Where is it? / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Sputtering Economy
Old and Outmoded
We Have Deflation Exactly Where?
O Deflation, Where is Thy Sting?

The CPI was out this week, and it showed a continued drop in inflation. There were those who immediately pointed out that this vindicated the Fed's move to QE2. We have to get ahead of this deflation thing, don't we? Well, maybe, depending on how you measure inflation/deflation. This week we look deep into the BLS website on inflation to see just exactly what it is we are measuring, and then take a walk down Nostalgia Lane. But first we look at what I think we can call The Sputtering Economy, because that will tie into our inflation discussion.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Zombie Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Michael_S_Rozeff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Keynesians are having a highly public quarrel on a deep and divisive issue – a fundamental issue. They are wrangling over exchange rates.

Obama and Bernanke and the U.S. Congress want the Chinese to raise the value of the Chinese currency. The Chinese don’t want to.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Is Inflation Lurking Around the Corner? / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe potential inflationary impact of the second round of quantitative easing, QE2, is at the top of the list of charges critics have complied against the Fed.  Let us look at the current evidence on inflation, inflation expectations, and the Fed's tool kit to fight inflation to conclude if the fear of inflation is credible.

Starting with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the October CPI rose 0.2% and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady.  The year-to-year change of both price measures shows a decelerating trend since the early part of the year (see chart 2).

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Economics

Friday, November 19, 2010

Will Christmas Shopping Revive the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Danny_Schechter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFunny how, back in 1929, we had a black Thursday and then a Black Friday as the market crashed, plunging the country into a depression. Now we have every retailer in every mall in America on their knees praying for a prosperous black Friday the day after Thanksgiving,

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Economics

Friday, November 19, 2010

Bernanke Seeks New International Monetary System, Warns End of US Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn speeches before a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt, Ben Bernanke went on an unprecedented attack, accusing China of throwing a monkey wrench into the global recovery, blaming China for slow global growth and a potential "End to the Tepid U.S. Recovery".

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2010

U.S. Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average Inching Below 450K / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 to 439,000 during the week ended November 13.  Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 48,000 to 4.295 million, the fourth consecutive weekly decline.  A large part of the decline is attributed to expiration of eligibility for unemployment insurance.  Unemployment claims under special programs increased 121,238.  It remains a challenge to sort out the special programs data as a number of people could be no longer eligible under the guidelines of the programs. 

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Index of Leading Economic Indicators Posts Second Impressive Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.5% in October, following an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in September.  The June-August readings of the LEI cast a shadow on the nature of the recovery.  Moreover, the three-month annualized increase of the LEI, at 4.8%, is the largest increase since June 2010 (see chart 2).  The reversal of the 3-month annualized change of the LEI supports predictions of faster economic growth in 2011. 

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Is the Philly Fed Survey the Precursor of More Bullish Economic Numbers? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's business survey results for November show a strong rebound.  The broadest measure of factory conditions increased to 22.5 in November from 1.0 in the October (see chart 1).  The index tracking new orders rose to 10.4 in November from -5.0 in the prior month.  Indexes measuring shipments (16.8 vs. 1.4 in October), number of employees (13.3 vs. 2.4 in October) and the employee workweek (22.3 vs. 15.9 in October) also advanced in November. 

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2010

What Drives Business Profits? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Kel_Kelly

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economic and business community constantly attempts to forecast the effects of various economic changes and government policies on corporate profits. But both the cause and effect of increasing profits are other than what most people imagine. It will therefore be helpful to gain a concrete understanding of what profits do and do not represent.[1]

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2010

U.S. Inflation Remains Contained, In Contrast to Fed’s Preference / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved up 0.2% in October, after a 0.1% gain in the prior month.  The year-to-year change is 1.2%, with the CPI trending down after a 2.7% increase in December.  During the July-October period, energy prices have lifted the overall CPI.  In October, higher gasoline prices (+4.6%) were responsible for nearly 90% of the increase in the CPI.  The CPI excluding energy held steady in October after a similar reading in the prior month.  Food prices inched up 0.1% in October, putting the year-to-year gain at 1.4%. 

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Economics

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

China Continuing Pointers to Strong Economic Growth For 2011 / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: BEIJING, People's Republic of China – While other investors are busy rounding up all sorts of economic data, tea leaves and fortune cookies in an attempt to figure out China's economic situation next year, I'm heading out the door once again to take a look at hairy crab prices.

Because of the timing of this trip, I'm a bit late in the season – but not enough that I won't be able to get a good reading on this surprisingly accurate indicator of China's economic health.

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