Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 01, 2010
India Economy and Stock Market Relentless Surge / Economics / India
By: Shaily
India has been on a relentless surge, both in the real economy and the equity markets. 100% return in 12 months is not something one would have had expected in April 2009, as Fund Managers, Hedge Funds and Private Equity funds were running for cover. Index had just dipped below 9,000 in 2009.
In fact Rahul Bhasin (MD, Barings PE) was on record: India Sensex Fair Value 7,500.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
You Still Believe The Fed Can Stop Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Recent history proves that the Fed's "control" is just an illusion. March 31, 2010
Think back to the fall of 2007. The deflationary "liquidity crunch" that over the next year-and-a-half cuts the DJIA in half, decimates commodities, real estate and world markets is only starting. Almost no one believes that the crash is coming -- to a large degree, because everyone is convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, with Ben Bernanke at the helm, will never allow deflation to happen: It can just print money!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
U.S. Unemployment Increasing Seasonal Adjustment Amplitude / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
My question is on the the increasing amplitude of BLS seasonal adjustments as noted in BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
The China Economic Growth Juggernaut Is Alive and Well / Economics / China Economy
By: Tony_Sagami
It is becoming quite popular to say that China’s bubble is about to burst. Not a chance. Like Mark Twain said, “reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Solving Britain's Economic Crisis Through Micro Business Capital Investments and Credit / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain had bet its future on the financial sector as the means for delivering economic prosperity and lost. The financial sector over the past 3 decades had mushroomed to an enormous size on terms of over leveraged liabilities extending to more than 5 times UK GDP that has imploded in spectacular style following the start of the Credit Crisis in August 2007 which has now left the country on the brink of bankruptcy under the burden of the liabilities of the banking sector (most denominated in foreign currencies), unsustainable annual budget deficit and the growing public sector debt mountain.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
U.S. Census Numbers Uncensored / Economics / US Economy
By: Casey_Research
Vedran Vuk, Casey Research writes:
The Census aims to be every man’s hero. It promises an economic stimulus, a reduction in unemployment, and greater funds for every community. Of course, the reality is much closer to a game of musical chairs with your money. And guess who will be left standing?
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
10 Signs of Speculative Mania in China / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading a GMO white paper on China’s Red Flags
Read full article... Read full article...In the aftermath of the credit crunch, the outlook for most developed economies appears pretty bleak. Households need to deleverage. Western governments will have to tighten their purse strings. Faced with such grim prospects at home, many investors are turning their attention toward China. It’s easy to see why they are excited. China combines size – 1.3 billion inhabitants – with tremendous growth prospects. Current income per capita is roughly one-tenth of U.S. levels. The People’s Republic also has a great track record.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Academic Economics Profession in Crisis / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Dear economics department chairman,
In all the formal economic study I have sat through, I have developed a growing concern for the direction of the economics profession in general, and economic education in particular. Let me explain — and challenge you.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
U.S. Economic Stimulus Works, Economy Recovers Under Obama / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Daniel_Bruno
Economists at Deutsche Bank are calling for a big surge in employment numbers as retail sales recover in the United States. The chart below, from www.fxboss.info shows the relationship between retail sales and non-farm payrolls. In America’s consumer driven economy, retail sales lead the way out of business recession and consequent double-digit unemployment. “Retail sales have turned up as recession fatigue has worn off sharply,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at Deutsche Bank in New York. “There should soon be a pretty big
pickup in job growth. If history repeats, we’ll be blindsided by job gains.”
Monday, March 29, 2010
It's Not the Debt, It's the Government Spending / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Last Friday afternoon I listened to a senator get all worked up about the avalanche of federal debt that is about to roll over America. He is correct that there is an avalanche of debt on the way. But his concerns are misplaced. More precisely, his concerns were misplaced. To reiterate a popular rant of mine, it is not the deficit or debt that is the real economic cost of government, but rather it is the spending of the government. The government always gets its funds by taxing, by borrowing and/or by printing (if the central bank is willing). All three means of government funding are pernicious with respect to economic performance. So, it is not the government debt that we should be concerned with, but rather the government spending.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 29, 2010
Greenspan Signals warnings for Bubble-maniacs, the Break-out of Inflation Has Already Begun / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
“I guess, I should warn you. If I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably mis-understood what I’ve said,” former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan was fond of saying, when he controlled the Fed’s money spigots. For many Fed watchers, it was a great relief when “Easy” Al finally retired from the Fed, since there is nothing more vexing - than correctly interpreting Green-speak.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Bernanke Does not Believe in U.S. Phony GDP Economic Growth Data / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Douglas_French
The revised news from Washington is that the economy grew at a 5.6% rate in the 4th quarter of 2009. The folks who grind the numbers at the Commerce Department credit huge inventory adjustments, robust business investments and recovering consumer spending for the fastest pace of economic growth in six years.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Obama's Road to Economic Ruin / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gerard_Jackson
When Obama ran for the presidency I warned that if elected the American people won't know what hit them. Obama supporters immediately responded with an avalanche of abuse. Last June Obama told a wildly applauding congregation of Hollywood celebrities that "You ain't seen nothing' yet!" I observed at the time that "he was speaking the truth. Americans really have seen nothing yet". Even now millions of Americans still cannot grasp the enormity of his fiscal depredations. Nevertheless, it does appear that the majority of Americans are beginning to catch on to this dedicated leftwinger's -- to put it mildly -- intellectual shortcomings.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
America and China, the Next Major War / Economics / Global Economy
By: Clif_Droke
In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy, many are questioning when the next major war may occur and speculation is rampant as to major participants involved. Our concern here is strictly of a financial nature, however, and a discussion of the geopolitical and military variables involved in the escalation of war is beyond the scope of this commentary. But what we can divine from financial history is that “hot” wars in a military sense often emerge from trade wars. As we shall see, the elements for what could prove to be a trade war of epic proportions are already in place and the key figures are easily identifiable. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 27, 2010
What Does the Greek Debt Crisis Mean For Your? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
What Does Greece Mean to Me, Dad?
Dear Kids,
Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles
Fingers of Instability
"To trace something unknown back to something known is alleviating, soothing, gratifying and gives moreover a feeling of power. Danger, disquiet, anxiety attend the unknown - the first instinct is to eliminate these distressing states. First principle: any explanation is better than none... The cause-creating drive is thus conditioned and excited by the feeling of fear..." Friedrich Nietzsche
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 26, 2010
China Economy, A Tale of Three Swan Songs / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
The United States, the European Union and others have long been critical of China's renminbi / yuan regime. Many U.S. lawmakers complain China's currency is undervalued by as much as 40% and undercutting the competitiveness of U.S. products.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Healthcare’s Double-Dip Recession / Economics / Government Spending
By: Andy_Sutton
One of the most interesting terms to come out of the past two years is the ‘double dip recession’. This is Newspeak for depression as far as I am concerned, but it fits with the new nomenclature we have used in an attempt to paint a crisis as not really being one. After all, what fun is it to admit that we’re in a morass that we have no hope of getting out of, or even a cogent, sensible plan for exiting? It is much easier to conjure up new terms in an attempt to move the boundaries into more palatable territory. This week, in the wake of the biggest nation-killing bill to pass out of the halls of Congress to date, I’m going to tell you exactly why we are now guaranteed a second dip (to use the nomenclature du jour), and how this is going to hit small businesses, which are the backbone of the real economy.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
U.S. Debt Reaches Tipping Point / Economics / US Debt
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Even the most statist economists can understand that a country’s debt has reached its saturation point once the change in Gross Domestic Product is less than the change in the federal debt. However, now the metrics of the American economy look even worse than the picture painted above. For each new dollar in federal debt, with productivity as measured by an increase or decrease in the GDP, 45 cents of wealth is destroyed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 25, 2010
The Fable of the Krugman / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
While Paul Krugman likes to present himself as being a Keynesian, in reality, his intellectual roots run back a few centuries to the mercantilists. If you wish to see the Krugman of 300 years ago, read Bernard Mandeville's The Fable of the Bees, first published in 1705, to see all of the same economic (and logical) fallacies that haunt Keynesianism and Krugman's columns.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
The Paradox of Keynesianism, Paul Krugman and the Consumption Myth / Economics / Elliott Wave Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Finegold Catalán writes: In "China's Water Pistol," Paul Krugman turned commentary on China into a general attack on those who remain wary of the United States' large public debt. In it, he sums up the Keynesian views on saving, consumption, and government spending. Whatever his intentions, all Krugman does is underscore his own lack of understanding of economic theory.