Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Non-Farm Payrolls Collapse in October as U.S. Unemployment Rate Soars / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October's payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. The household survey saw a decline of -297K, which is above its three-month average of -287K. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 603K to 10.1mln in October.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
United States Entering its Darkest Period In History / Politics / US Economy
By: Dr_Janice_Dorn
As predicted in The Big Rollover Thesis that we first presented in 2005, we are on the cusp of entering the darkest period in history that most of us have ever experienced. The people that really know about this are the Silent Generation. They feel it intensely because they were either born into it or grew up in it. They want to speak about it, but are either silenced or in fear. At a time when we need their guidance, ageism is upon us, and no one wants to listen to them.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 3-7) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The first week of November will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will feature the first significant look at the data from the real economy in October, when the credit markets seized up. The primary market-moving event will be the Friday publication of the October estimate of non-farm payrolls that we expect to contract by -225K. The week will kick off with the release of the October ISM survey of manufacturing conditions nationwide, total vehicle sales and the construction spending report for September. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
LIBOR Unfreezing as Fed Takes Aggressive Action to Boost Economy / Interest-Rates / US Economy
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
CNNMoney.com: Bernanke discusses future of Fannie and Freddie “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the federal government will need to continue to play a role in the future of the mortgage financing market.
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Monday, October 27, 2008
U.S. Government Spending the Economy into Oblivion / Politics / US Economy
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
With news this week that Congress is poised to consider a new stimulus package, I am forced to again ask a question that seems silly in Washington: How will we pay for this?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 27-31) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
Upping the Economic Stimulus Dosage / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Insanity is often defined as repeating the same action while expecting a different result. Recent Congressional activity to push through this year's second economic “stimulus” package certainly indicates that many of our political leaders may have special needs. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 20, 2008
U.S. States Face Tax Shortfalls, Frugality To Hit Budgets / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Los Angeles Times is reporting States face new budget shortfalls .The moribund economy is drying up tax revenues more dramatically than expected, forcing 22 states, including California, to confront growing budget gaps. Some states have already eliminated jobs and services -- and more cuts are likely.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 20-24) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Leading U.S. Economic Indicators Hit 33 Year Lows / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Economic Cycle Research Institute ECRI reports Weekly Leading Index Growth at 33-yr Low .
A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its worst level in 6 years and its annualized growth rate had its biggest weekly decline in almost four decades to hit a fresh 33-year low, a search group said on Friday.
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Friday, October 17, 2008
Reduced Gasoline Prices Provide Economic Relief, But May Not Change Consumer Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Gasoline prices have seen a steep decline over the past three months. Since hitting a peak on July 20, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has declined 52 cents, which should inject approximately $120 to $130 billion into the pocketbooks of consumers, with more expected on the way.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
U.S. Worsening Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_J_Panzner
This morning, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced that its general economic index for October fell from 3.8 in September to a much worse-than-forecast minus 37.5, the lowest level in nearly two decades. That follows yesterday's news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index declined to a record low of minus 24.6, also below expectations. Together with another regularly updated index, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing sector activity survey (October data has not yet been released), these indicators seem to make it clear that the economic outlook remains bleak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Browne
On Monday October 13th , the Dow took the fifth biggest upward leap (in percentage terms) in its history and, most notably, since the 1930's. It appeared that Paulson and his fellow G-7 finance ministers had solved the credit crisis. Despite the fact that G-7 taxpayers will be stuck with $3.5 trillion of liabilities to support their governments' bailout plans, the stock markets nevertheless bustled with euphoria. The next day, reality dawned once again, and all markets closed down. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 13, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 13-17) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of October 13-17 will see perhaps the most important week of macroeconomic data and Fed talk of the year. The weekend of Oct 10-12 will see the G-7 meeting in Washington where finance ministers will attempt to formulate a common policy to stem the damage to global financial markets. We expect them to consider guaranteeing all term lending at the meeting. The statements of Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet can be expected to support whatever important decisions are arrived at the G-7 meeting. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 6-10) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of October 6-10 will see a light week of economic data that will be dominated by the Tuesday FOMC minutes from the September 16 meeting and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke speech that same day. Other data to be released during the week will be the Wednesday pending home sales report for August and the weekly initial claims data on Thursday. The week will close with the publication of the August trade balance and the September import price estimate. Depending on events over the weekend out of the US Congress and perhaps the Fed, the market conditions may see a bit of volatility during the early part of next week over economic concerns and redemptions in the hedge fund community. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Soaring Unemployment, Brace for Massive Job Losses / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Main Street and Wall Street both better be bracing for layoff because they are coming. I talked about that a bit in Jobs Contract 9th Consecutive Month . Mass Layoffs Rise
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Friday, October 03, 2008
US Non-Farm Payroll Jobs Contract for 9th Consecutive Month / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
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Thursday, October 02, 2008
US Employment Picture: September Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The upcoming release of the September non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not provide much comfort to the market or the public. Our forecast implies that payrolls will decline -105K and that the rate of unemployment will increase to 6.2% for the month. The strike at Boeing and the displacement of workers in the Southeast due to the twin hurricanes that hit the area during the sampling period should send the headline estimate of job losses above the recent trend. The risk for the report is to the downside and we do expect that the rate of job destruction will increase in the coming months. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
US Economic Data and Events for September 30, 2008 / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
* The failure of the TARP on the floor of the House of Representatives has moved action towards overnight trading in Asia and early morning action in Europe. With the credit markets currently jammed up, volatility should be expected to shape the overnight action and the direction of US markets in early morning trading Tuesday.
• News flow will provide direction for the markets as Congress dithers over what action to take to stem the tide of the growing crisis. It does appear that the plan in its current form, or in another, will not be resubmitted to House until Thursday at the earliest.
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Monday, September 29, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 29-3rd Oct) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 29-October 3 will see very important data that will provide information on the condition of the consumer and the labor sector. The major data risk for the week will occur with the Monday release of the August personal and income statement and the Friday publication of the September estimate of non-farm payrolls. We look for modest declines in real spending and a loss of -105K payrolls with the unemployment rate increasing to 6.2%. Read full article... Read full article...