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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, January 18, 2019

Debt, Division, Dysfunction, and the March to National Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Never in our lifetimes has American politics been so marked by division and dysfunction.

The longest partial government shutdown in history occurred after the Democrat-controlled Congress wouldn’t compromise with President Trump on a border wall. The impasse is but one symptom of a deeper malady – one that threatens to wreak wider social and financial instability in the years ahead.

Put plainly, the pillars of the American system as we have known it are eroding.

No longer are we unified in support of the Constitution and a (more or less) free market economy. A growing faction within one party favors socialism and outright rejects foundational American principles such as free speech, gun rights, and limited government.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

It’s Not Polite, but I’m Pretty Pissed at the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

This essay is going to insult a bunch of smart, maybe even brilliant, people. It is not polite nor is it politically correct. I will try to be better. But right now, I am pretty pissed.

Here’s the thing.

No serious scientist would run a two-variable experiment. By that I mean, you run an experiment with one variable to see what happens.

If you have two variables and something happens—either good or bad—you don’t know which variable caused it.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 14, 2019

Has the Fed Already Gone Too Far? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

It is crucial for investors to understand that the Federal Reserve has not yet turned dovish and the Fed “Put” it not yet in place. Wall Street sometimes hears what it desperately needs, but that does not make it fact. While Jerome Powell has moved incrementally towards the dovish side of the ledger in the past few weeks, the Fed is still firmly in hawkish territory. If, however, Mr. Powell was actively reducing the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) and expanding the balance sheet, then we would have a dovish Fed. However, by just indicating that the FOMC might be close to finishing its rate hiking campaign, while still selling nearly $50 billion of bonds every month from its balance sheet, the Fed is still tightening monetary policy--and in a big way.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: EWI

Most economists and financial analysts believe that central banks set interest rates.

For more than two decades, Elliott Wave International has tracked the relationship between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and found that it's actually the other way around--the market leads, and the Fed follows.

The latest Federal Reserve rate decision on December 19 brought the usual breathless anticipation. Confusion reigned as the U.S. president as well as a former Fed board member publicly urged the U.S. central bank not to raise rates and many wondered if the Fed would "rescue" investors with a surprise decision to leave them unchanged. The Fed, however, did what it almost always does: it brought its rate in line with market rates.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 07, 2019

Half of Investment-Grade Bonds Are Just One Step from Junk Status / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Submissions

BY ROBERT ROSS : The S&P fell 10%. It was its worst December since 1931.

When the market drops, conventional investing wisdom says buy bonds. And this is what investors did.

Many have shifted money out of stocks into bonds. Much of that money has flowed into investment-grade corporate bonds.

These bonds are seen as some of the safest bonds investors can buy. The problem is that investment grade doesn’t mean what it used to.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Federal Reserve – Conspiracy Or Not? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

Conspiracy surrounding the Federal Reserve is a subject of much debate. A controversial topic, yes;  one which stirs the imagination of some, fires the suspicion of others, and provokes the declamation of not too few detractors. 

From G. Edward Griffin/The Creature From Jekyll Island…

“Back in 1910, Jekyll Island was completely privately owned by a small group of millionaires from New York. We’re talking about people such as J. P. Morgan, William Rockefeller and their associates. This was a social club and it was called “The Jekyll Island Club.”

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

5 Potential Impacts of The LIBOR Expiration In 2021 / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: Submissions

In 2021, one of the most important financial tools will disappear. The London Interbank Offer Rate, or LIBOR, is the average estimated interest rate for loans between major London banks. In the decades since this number was created, it became a major element in determining short-term interest rates internationally. The interest on roughly $350 trillion contracts and loans rely on this number. Yet the UK government has ordered that the LIBOR be phased out by 2021. As a financier making long term plans, this can seem like a crisis waiting to happen. There are many possibilities for a future without the LIBOR, and not all of them are bad. Here are potential impacts of the LIBOR expiration in 2021.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 23, 2018

The Fed Tightens the Monetary Noose / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The Fed defied President Trump’s irreverent Tweets. Indeed, the Fed did what it signaled it was going to do long before Trump pushed the “Tweet” button. Yes, the Fed—with all 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting “yes”—increased the federal funds interest rate by 25 basis points to the 2.25-2.50% range. And, as night follows day, the U.S. equity markets, currency markets, and precious metals markets took a hit.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 21, 2018

FOMC Update - Jerome ‘Dead Eye’ Powell / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Gary_Tanashian

One of the most disturbing scenes in the series Breaking Bad was when Todd shoots and kills a boy on a dirt bike after he witnessed Heisenberg, Jesse and Todd heist 900 gallons of methylamine. Jesse: “Todd, that Opie Dead Eyed piece of shit…”

That is similar to the feeling I got after the Fed hiked the funds rate as expected, but then declined to offer the stock market much relief for its ongoing temper tantrum.

What’s this? The Fed is not doing as the vast majority of market participants expect it to do? The Fed is not taking active measures to boost asset prices?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Gerald Celente:Central Banks Can’t Stop a 2019 Debt Disaster / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Coming up the one and only Gerald Celente joins me to talk about the upcoming trends for 2019 both geopolitically and economically. Gerald breaks down the chaos in Europe, tells us whether or not major protests are likely to break out here in the states and shares his outlook for the metals. Don’t miss a tremendous interview with Gerald Celente, publisher of the Trends Journal and top trends forecaster in the world, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, as Democrat leaders face off against President Donald Trump over the federal budget, bulls and bears in the gold and silver markets are facing off at key price levels.

The gold market attempted to rally above the $1,250 level this week but ran into some selling pressure. As of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,236 per ounce, off 1.0% for the week.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 15, 2018

Market Confusion About the Yield Curve Inversion / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Donald_W_Dony

Last week, the 5-year Treasury note fell below the 2-year note causing many market watchers to suggest the US Yield Curve is inverting. And as the Curve is a leading indicator to the stock market, the bears came out in force declaring the party has ended.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The more important yield comparison to watch is the 2-year Treasury note versus the 10-year note.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Trump vs the Fed: Who Wins? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Richard_Mills

Who controls the US economy? The “power of the purse” resides within the US Congress and the powers to set fiscal and monetary policy are delegated to the US Central Bank, otherwise known as the Federal Reserve.

While the success of US Presidents often depends on how well the economy does during their terms, in fact they have little direct influence on it. The President can guide the economy and put his stamp on unlimited pieces of legislation, but he must work with Congress and the Federal Reserve in order to execute his agenda.

To demonstrate just how powerless the President is over the economy, you need only look at Article II of the US Constitution which outlines the responsibilities of the Executive Branch:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 04, 2018

The Debt Great Reset Is Coming / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

The US government on-budget deficit was $100.5 billion in October. It was $63.2 billion in the same month a year earlier. I see little hope it will reverse.

There is no appetite in Congress or the public for lower spending. Nor will we see the kind of tax policy changes that would generate more revenue.

Federal debt has grown with little complaint (except from a few of us curmudgeons) because it was mostly painless over the last decade.
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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 01, 2018

Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Science tells us energy can neither be created nor destroyed within a closed system. The form may change, but the amount will only stay the same. If this only held true for debt.

Within the closed system called Earth, we create debt much better than we eliminate it.

Well, when we have too much, we eventually get rid of it. But we do so in painful and unpleasant ways—via some kind of debt crisis.

This has happened over and over again throughout history. And there’s real possibility that we will soon face another major debt crisis...
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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 19, 2018

Calls Intensify for Halting Interest Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

President Donald Trump isn’t thrilled about Jerome Powell’s stewardship of the dollar and interest rates. He would like the central bank’s help in keeping the economic party going, but so far the Fed Chair just won’t play ball. Now the Wall Street Journal has joined the President’s call for some renewed stimulus.

If officials at the Fed want to pause or even reverse course on raising interest rates, they have cover to do so. As yet, however, the consensus remains unshaken. The markets are counting on another rate hike following next month’s FOMC meeting.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 17, 2018

The Fed's Misleading Money Supply Measures / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The most robust national income determination model is the monetarist model. The course of the economy when measured in nominal terms is determined by the course taken by the money supply. Indeed, the positive relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and both nominal GDP and nominal aggregate demand growth is unambiguous and overwhelming.

So, just what is the measure of money that is most suited for taking the temperature of the economy and forecasting its course? Is a narrow metric, like the monetary base (M0), the best? Or, should we focus on broad money metrics, like M3 and M4? For national income determination, the more inclusive the metric, the better. Indeed, for the most complete and accurate picture, one should include all the important components of money supply, not just a few.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 12, 2018

Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Equity Commonwealth REIT (EQC) / Interest-Rates / Investing 2018

By: Donald_W_Dony

Company profile: Equity Commonwealth (NYSE: EQC) is a Chicago based, internally managed and self-advised real estate investment trust (REIT) with commercial office properties in the United States. As of June 30, 2018, EQC's portfolio comprised 13 properties and 6.3 million square feet.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 12, 2018

A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2018

By: John_Mauldin

Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.”

Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash yet.

Whether it’s wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so you can get a better job may be a good idea. Borrowing money to finance your vacation? Probably not.

The problem is that many people, businesses, and governments borrow because they can. It’s been possible in the last decade only because central banks made it so cheap.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Here’s Why 10%+ US Treasury Bond Yields Are a Real Possibility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

The US Treasury has closed the books on Fiscal Year 2018, which was another debt-financed failure.

The federal government spent above $4.1 trillion in FY 2018. It had to borrow $779 billion on budget and a few hundred billion more off-budget.

And over 40% of the on-budget deficit went simply to pay $325 billion in interest on previously-issued debt.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 08, 2018

Future US Interest Rates, Financial Markets, and the FED / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Raymond_Matison

Don’t fight the FED, is a long-established, oft-confirmed market proverb. The FED is indeed an incredibly powerful institution; in fact, it is perhaps the most powerful institution on the planet.  It is arguably more powerful than our combined air, sea, and land military forces.  These forces can reduce individual military targets to dust, they can flatten cities or even small countries killing thousands of people, but still it is no competition to the FED!  The FED with its power over interest rates and money creation, its expansion or contraction, its Petrodollar and global trading currency, its open market operations, and its foreign currency exchange markets can destroy the value of foreign currencies, and start revolutions. It can injure or even destroy economies of single countries or even whole regions of the developing world, in turn crippling the lives of tens or even hundreds millions of people.  It can finance wars, determining who will be victorious.

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