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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, January 22, 2021

2021: The Year of the Gripping Hand / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

Harry Truman famously asked for a one-handed economist so he could stop hearing, “On the one hand, but then on the other hand.”

But what if we had three hands?

Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's 1974 book, "The Mote in God’s Eye," features an alien species with three arms. It has two “normal” hands and a stronger, but less dexterous one called the “gripping hand.”

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Economics

Tuesday, January 05, 2021

Consumer Prices Are Not Reflecting Higher Inflation; Neither Is The CRB / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

As of November 30th, the annual inflation rate for the year 2020 is 1.17% (CPI). And it is not likely to get a whole lot worse anytime soon.

When the Federal Reserve responded to the financial crisis of 2007-08 with hugely unprecedented monetary expansion efforts, many thought that it would lead to runaway inflation and collapse of the U.S. dollar. It didn’t; and the expected higher inflation rates did not occur.

What did happen is that consumer prices remained reasonably stable and we even saw lower prices in 2009 and 2015.

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Economics

Thursday, December 31, 2020

US Economy GDP 2021 / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street is universally bullish on the economy and stock market for 2021. For example, Morgan Stanley is on record predicting the U.S. economy will expand by 5.9% next year. The stock market has front-run this optimism. The most important valuation metric, total market cap to GDP, currently stands at an unprecedented 185%. This absurd valuation only makes sense if investors believe corporate profits will skyrocket next year. No other bull market in history even comes close to this historic distortion between the price of stocks and the underlying economy.

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Economics

Saturday, December 26, 2020

Tackling US Infrastructure and Unemployment Crises: The “American System” Solution / Economics / Government Spending

By: Ellen_Brown

A self-funding national infrastructure bank modeled on the “American System” of Alexander Hamilton, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin D. Roosevelt would help solve not one but two of the country’s biggest problems.

Millions of Americans have joined the ranks of the unemployed, and government relief checks and savings are running out; meanwhile, the country still needs trillions of dollars in infrastructure. Putting the unemployed to work on those infrastructure projects seems an obvious solution, especially given that the $600 or $700 stimulus checks Congress is planning on issuing will do little to address the growing crisis. Various plans for solving the infrastructure crisis involving public-private partnerships have been proposed, but they’ll invariably result in private investors reaping the profits while the public bears the costs and liabilities. We have relied for too long on private, often global, capital, while the Chinese run circles around us building infrastructure with credit simply created on the books of their government-owned banks.

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Economics

Thursday, December 24, 2020

US Fed Recommits to Misleading the Public About Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Did the Federal Reserve just usher in the next phase of the U.S. dollar’s decline?

On Wednesday, the central bank recommitted to leaving its benchmark interest rate near zero for the foreseeable future.

Fed officials also vowed to keep pumping cash into financial markets.

Following Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks, the wavering U.S. Dollar Index turned down – hitting a fresh new low for the year. Gold gained modestly on the day while silver got a bigger boost to close solidly above $25/oz, promptly heading to $26/oz the day following.

Precious metals markets have been basing out over the past several weeks. They are struggling to attract safe-haven demand amid record runs in stocks and Bitcoin.

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Economics

Friday, December 11, 2020

We Can’t Wait Any Longer for More Coronavirus Relief / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

The Federal Reserve acted quickly last March, cutting rates and launching a massive asset purchase program. Congress helped with a giant fiscal aid package.

Together, these jolted the economy back to life. The jolt wasn’t permanent, however.

The economic patient is now wavering again. This time, despite pleas from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that monetary policy has reached its limits, the fiscal part of the cure is not forthcoming.

Ah, but “limits” don’t really apply to central bankers. Not the central bank of the world’s largest economy and issuer of the global reserve currency.

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Economics

Thursday, December 10, 2020

The Economic Implications of Colossal Global Infrastructure Funding Deficit / Economics / Infrastructure

By: Richard_Mills

Unprecedented times call for unprecedented measures. As the saying goes, governments around the globe have taken drastic action to support their respective economies in the wake of the pandemic.

Within the first two months of the crisis, more than $10 trillion in relief packages were announced worldwide. This was three times more than the response to the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

As the leading world power, the US has already injected nearly 14% of last year’s GDP to rejuvenate its economy, according to Statista. This equates to about $3 trillion in money being printed.

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Economics

Friday, December 04, 2020

Pre-COVID US Economy Wasn’t All That Great Either / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The stock market and economy appear to be doing ok for the moment, as the incredibly dangerous bubble inflates further. This optimism is predicated on a plethora of COVID-19 Vaccines, which are projected to bring the economy back to its pre-COVID state of health. However, the problem with this line of thinking is that 2019 was anything but normal and healthy. It was a messy combination of a Fed slashing interest rates and re-imposing QE in order to achieve a rather mundane GDP growth rate of just 2.2%. The truth is, the pre-virus economic construct was built on Silly Sand—erected on top of asset bubbles, artificial interest rates and an avalanche of new debt issuance.

Not only will a return to “normalcy” merely bring us back to an anemic and non-viable economy, I want to highlight three things I’m watching out for during 2021 that could upend the economy and markets.

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Economics

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: EWI

Interestingly, this economic measure's "retracement of the decline from February is a Fibonacci 61%"

The 7.4% GDP growth in Q3 notwithstanding, the evidence shows that the U.S. economy remains fragile.

Let's start off with this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets:

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Economics

Friday, November 20, 2020

World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

After four long years of diminished prospects, stagnation and divisive geopolitics, four summits could show the way toward a better future.         

Recently, Moscow hosted the 12th BRICS Summit. Malaysia is hosting the APEC Summit. And Riyadh will welcome the world leaders into the highly-anticipated G20 conference.

Importantly, these high-level events followed the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free-trade pact, which could help build multiple new paths toward a shared future.

The global economy is expected to shrink by 5 percent in 2020. World trade is likely to plummet by 20 percent. After misguided trade wars and the pandemic, global cooperation across all differences is vital to defeat the pandemic and facilitate economic recovery.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

China’s New 15-Year Vision: ‘Dual Circulation’ to Sustainable Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

While the coronavirus fallout is still escalating in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires multilateral cooperation that China's new development pattern seeks to foster.   

Last week, the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) completed its fifth plenary session in Beijing.

Unlike all other major countries, China’s economy is rebounding and fueling global prospects.

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Economics

Friday, October 23, 2020

Sayonara U.S.A. / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The Japanese word for goodbye is Sayonara. But it doesn’t just mean goodbye, it means goodbye forever. Unfortunately, that is what our country is doing to American Capitalism.

In the quixotic fantasy world of Keynesian economics, the more money a government borrows and prints the healthier the economy will become. Those who adhere to this philosophy also believe such profligacy comes without any negative economic consequences in the long run. This specious dogma contends that it is ok for a government to dig further into a big deficit hole during a recession because massive public spending will help the economy to climb out faster. And then, a government can cut spending in the good times, which leads to big budget surpluses.

The trouble with this theory is the time never arrives to bring the scales into balance. Case in point, during the pre-pandemic year 2019, the U.S. had a deficit that was equal to 5% of GDP—one of the worst figures since WWII. This deficit occurred during a time which was purported to be one of the best economies in history.  Today, there are negotiations for yet another “stimulus” package after having already spending $3 trillion (15% of GDP) earlier this year. Speaker Pelosi and the Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion and Republican President Trump says, “I would like to see a bigger stimulus package, frankly, than either the democrats or Republicans are offering.”

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Economics

Friday, October 23, 2020

Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Stinson

In 2021, the return to growth in major ASEAN economies rests on the containment of COVID-19, structural growth and global outlook. Due to rising deficits, debt and political volatility, the recovery will be bumpy.

Recently, the WHO stated that 1 in 10 people worldwide may have been infected by the coronavirus. Since the current world population is 7.8 billion, real infections would total 780 million rather than the 40 million confirmed cases today.

Among Southeast Asia’s major economies – ASEAN-6 - Indonesia and the Philippines have currently almost 360,000 confirmed cases each. According to WHO’s models, the real number could be 3.5 million or more.

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Economics

Monday, October 19, 2020

From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

Economists who expected a quick recovery from this recession have been revising their forecasts. Mounting evidence suggests the May/June bounce was just that—a bounce, and not a return to prior trends.

I’ve been following Homebase, a payroll/HR data provider for small businesses, whose data gives us high-frequency and nearly real-time information. This is from their September report:

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Economics

Friday, October 16, 2020

US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Recovery is coming because the economy has found a new equilibrium. That's what we are told. Except, that’s not what the data says.

Last week, I laid out the case that US government debt would be $50 trillion by 2030. That was using straight-line CBO projections along with the 2008 recovery pattern for government revenue.

I added in off-budget debt at its $269 billion yearly average. But now, USdebtclock.org projects off-budget deficit will rise by over $1 trillion this year.

With that in mind, it's not just that we'll have even higher debt by 2030. It's that this mounting debt will further slow the recovery.

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Economics

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals investors faced choppy market seas this week.  Gold bobbed to a slight decline while silver essentially treaded water through Thursday’s close. Both are advancing strongly today.

Metals markets are being overshadowed by equities markets. The S&P 500 broke out to a 5-week high on Thursday. The rally comes on a rising tide of Federal Reserve liquidity coupled with on again, off again hopes for a stimulus deal in Washington.

More stimulus is definitely coming. The only question is how many trillions and whether they get dished out before or after the election.

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Economics

Saturday, October 10, 2020

What Happens When the Stumble-Through Economy Stalls / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

Our economic prospects looked bleak back in March and April. Much of the economy was closed down, we didn’t know how bad the virus would get, and it was hard to see a good outcome.

Now the outlook is relatively better. Unemployment, GDP, and other indicators aren’t great but they’ve improved. Yet a “better” outlook isn’t necessarily a good one. It’s just “not as bad.”

Today’s numbers would be considered terrible if we weren’t comparing them to truly disastrous numbers from last spring. We avoided the worst because fiscal income replacement and business lifelines maintained consumer spending, and in some cases increased it.

If you fly a lot as I do (or used to), you’ve heard the term “stall speed.” An airplane needs to go a certain speed in order to stay aloft.

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Economics

Friday, October 09, 2020

Q2 Was Disastrous. But What’s Next for the US Economy – and Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The real US GDP plunged with a 31.4 percent annual rate in Q2 of 2020. In that regard, what’s next for the American economy and the gold market?

We all know that the second quarter was disastrous for the US economy. And now, it’s official. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the third real GDP estimate in the Q2. According to the report, the real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4 percent (slightly better than the second estimate of 31.7-percent plunge), or 9 percent more from the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2019, as the chart below shows. In other words, the US economy has suffered the sharpest contraction since the government started keeping records in 1947.
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Economics

Saturday, October 03, 2020

Congressional Budget Office Tax Revenues Set to Surge! In 2 Years, That Is / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

All debt shares one common characteristic. A bill comes due at some point and, if the borrower doesn’t pay, the lender either loses their money or finds someone else to pay.

I’ve warned for several years now that our growing global debt load is unpayable. We will eventually “reorganize” it in what I call The Great Reset, likely later in this decade.

Recent developments suggest debt will be even bigger than I expected, to the tune of $50 trillion in the US by 2030. That's double what I expected just one year ago.

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Economics

Saturday, September 19, 2020

A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Kelsey_Williams

Some are calling it the “Greater Depression” but that still makes last century’s Depression of the 1930’s the point of reference. The Great Depression of the 1930s was bad, but what we are facing now is worse.

The Depression Of The 21st Century will likely end up being the new singular event  of discussion and comparison for all financial and economic catastrophes.  Questions of how much worse and how long it will last are difficult to answer. Predictions about the type and strength of potential recovery could be premature.

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