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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 / Economics / Stagflation

By: Dan_Steinbock

Until recently, the US Fed ignored America’s soaring inflation. Due to its belated response, the consequent risks will penalize the ailing global recovery.

In November, U.S. inflation surged to near 40-year high, at 6.8%. Only days later, the Fed indicated it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March, thus paving the way for interest rate hikes by the end of 2022.

It had been one of the worst inflation calls in the Fed’s history. One that will contribute to new uncertainty in the United States. Nor will it spare the rest of the world, including the world’s most dynamic region - Asia.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, December 30, 2021

2022 – The Year of (Gold) Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

High inflation won’t go away in 2022. Good for gold. However, it is likely to continue to climb and reach its peak. That sounds a bit worse for gold.

If 2021 was tough for you, I don’t recommend reading Nostradamus’ predictions for the next year. This famous French astrologer saw inflation, hunger, and much more coming in 2022:

So high the price of wheat,

That man is stirred

His fellow man to eat in his despair

Yuk! So, life is about to get a little more complicated: we must now avoid becoming infected and being eaten by our fellow citizens! If you are interested in how cannibalism will affect the gold market, I’m afraid that I don’t have adequate data. Anyway, if you end up in the pot together with vegetables and your colleagues, gold’s performance probably won’t be your top priority.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Inflation Torpedoes Biden Agenda – Will It Next Wreck Financial Markets? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

President Joe Biden’s so-called “Build Back Better” agenda was dealt a likely fatal blow on Sunday. Moderate Democrat Joe Manchin announced that he would oppose his party’s massive $2 trillion spending bill.

That effectively kills it in its current form.

Chief among Senator Manchin’s reasons for opposing the Biden administration’s far-reaching spending scheme is inflation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, December 20, 2021

Consumer Price Index (Less Food & Energy) Climbs To Highest Levels Since 2007-08 / Economics / Inflation

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I and Part II of this research article, I shared my research into the state of past and current US and global economy, Rest Of World Debt, DGP Implicit Price Deflator, Fed Funds Rates, and other technical data charts. The purpose of this article is to share with you two key components of the current US and global market trends; higher inflationary trends and a potentially trapped US Federal Reserve.

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

I will share more data/charts, and my proprietary US economy/Fed modeling systems results in Part III. My objective is to share my belief that the US Federal Reserve still has room to adjust interest rates (within reason) and how the US/global economy is starting to trend into the highest inflationary levels since 1975~1985. These levels could frighten traders/investors, but given the global economic constraints of the COVID lock-downs, I consider the current economic trends a symptom of the stimulus/solution – not necessarily an inherent economic trend. Allow me to explain my thinking in more detail.

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Economics

Friday, November 19, 2021

Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In this analysis I explain why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Last week’s surge in gold and silver prices was due, at least in part, to a realization by Wall Street traders that inflation isn’t going away.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had assured us all the trend higher in prices would be “transitory,” but another giant surge in the Consumer Price Index has investors wondering if they can believe anything Powell says.

They shouldn’t. People should view most of what Powell has to say about inflation in the same manner as they now view “14 days to flatten the curve” and other government lies.

Powell is well aware that higher prices are anything but temporary. For starters, many of the drivers behind higher prices are structural and won’t be disappearing any time soon.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: MoneyMetals

President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion “infrastructure” bill into law on Monday amid growing concerns that his administration’s policies are fueling higher inflation.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, is warning of an economically and politically ruinous inflation problem brewing.

He wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy” will “threaten prosperity and public trust unless clearly acknowledged and addressed.”

That was an apparent swipe at the Biden administration’s pattern of denials and misdirections whenever confronted about inflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So called transitory US inflation surged to 5.4% for September remaining sticky at above 5% with little signs of moderation and thus likely to prompt the Fed to taper in the near future to signal intentions to bring inflation down to 2% in 2 years time as their 'transitory' propaganda smoke screen is wearing thin. Of course real US inflation in is at least double official fake CPI. Whilst the real rate of inflation in the UK is even worse, likely 3 to 4 times official CPI i.e. about 15% to 20%.

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Economics

Sunday, November 14, 2021

US Economy in Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Nadeem_Walayat

You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.

The Fed states US real GDP is currently +12% year on year . Now consider this, what inflation measure do you think the Fed is using to calculate these GDP figures? CPI? WRONG! GDP price deflator which tends to consistently under estimate inflation even against CPI as the following graph illustrates.

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Forget the official UK inflation indices which are just as fake as those in the US and those that spew out of the CCP, a year ago I estimated the REAL rate of UK inflation was 16%, today I estimate it to be near 20%! But that is the average amidst that there will be huge variances with the price of many goods, materials and services more than doubling! Case in point being UK energy / natural gas prices which have doubled and are on their way to tripling as the pieces of turd energy companies FAILED to HEDGE prices as they crept higher during the summer months because they knew at the end of the day they could just walk away from their contracts with customers, shut up shop and reopen under a slightly different name with the same staff and premises, WHAT A SCAM!

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Emerging Markets: How to Get a Grip on "Chaos of History" / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

Hi reader,

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is composed of 1,400 stocks from 27 nations. You'd think that the trillions of buy/sell decisions from across the region would result in a chaotic-looking chart.

But the opposite is true.

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

China Singles' Day - Toward Double 11 Record Sales, Despite Economic Uncertainties / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the world’s largest e-commerce market, China is likely to continue growing faster relative to North America and Western Europe. Singles’ Day 2021 will reflect that expansion.
Before the Singles Day, some observers thought that recent growth deceleration and continued regulatory scrutiny could dampen e-commerce in 2021. Yet, the full-year results may prove not that different from the past year.

On October 20, Alibaba and JD.com kicked promotions off already on October 20 since they are no longer restricted to a 24-hour time window. Last year, Alibaba’s Tmall reported sales of $78 billion in the first 10 days of November; 26 percent more than the previous year. This year, the Double 11 turnover is expected to increase solidly in absolute terms, even if the growth rate slows, due to last year’s high base.

In times of uncertainty, consumers are more cost-conscious. Due to broad discounts and promotions, that is expected to translate record sales during the Singles Day.

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Economics

Saturday, October 30, 2021

Central Planners Clinging to Hope That Inflation Is “Transitory” / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

As trading closes out for October ahead of Halloween, the specter of inflation is haunting markets.

While some investors still cling to the hope that it will be transitory, a growing number are now worried that pricing pressures and even shortages will intensify heading into Christmas – and possibly get worse in 2022. Discussions of the term “hyperinflation” have even made the rounds on social media following a warning from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.

More on that in a bit. But first, let’s review this week’s price action in precious metals markets.

Gold over the past few trading days has been oscillating around the $1,800 level. Prices currently come in at $1,783 an ounce to register a weekly decline of 0.9%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 22, 2021

US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Wait things are even worse than that! You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: MoneyMetals

The stampede of dollars into the gold and silver markets has not yet begun. There is record demand for coins, rounds, and bars, but institutional money is still ignoring precious metals, for the most part.

Anyone wondering why, can find a clue in the current makeup of the U.S. economy.

The large majority of the nation’s spending, and wealth, is handled by people who don’t have much in common with gold bugs – at least not yet.

Let’s start with some data.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, October 18, 2021

Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Kelsey_Williams

INFLATION OR DEFLATION 

The debate continues but not much has been said that clarifies the issue for ordinary  investors. What follows in this article should help.

Inflation is the debasement of money by government and central banks. The Federal Reserve and all central banks practice inflation by expanding the supply of money and credit continuously and intentionally.  

This debasement of the money results in effects that are harmful and unpredictable. One of these effects of inflation is an unquantifiable loss of purchasing power in the money itself.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, October 17, 2021

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

The Demand Shock of 2022  / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Investors are growing cautious as we approach the fourth quarter, and their trepidation is justified. Here’s a brief summary of the situation: there is a potential global financial crisis stemming from the Chinese property market meltdown, supply chain bottlenecks are growing worse, Q3 Earnings warnings are being reported from many large corporations, interest rates are rising, inflation is at a 40-year high, tax hikes are coming in ’22, and the threat of a U.S. debt default still hangs in the air until the end of November.

The macroeconomic situation today is one of stagflation. Meaning, inflation rates are higher than normal at the same time GDP growth is slowing. To this point, the data shows that 6.2 million people lost their benefits in the week of September 11tt, as most government pandemic unemployment relief programs expired. These people all need to find a job, and quickly, to supplant that huge government weekly stipend that is now gone. Instead, we find that weekly layoffs are consistently higher than any other time since before the pandemic all the way back through 2015. And, we see that only 194k net new jobs were added during the month of September.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, October 03, 2021

Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All / Economics / Inflation

By: P_Radomski_CFA

At a panel discussion, Fed Chair finally admitted that inflation could be more (!) long-lasting than expected. What does it mean? Hawks. Lots of them.

Capitulation

With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell finally having his ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment on Sep. 29, the central bank chief’s skittish words helped light a fire under the USD Index. For context, I’ve been warning for months that Powell remains materially behind the inflation curve. And with his indecisive speech upending the Fed’s confidence game, the gambit is showing signs of unraveling.

Speaking at an ECB panel discussion on Sep. 29, he said:

“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end. It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime or how long they last.”

For context, first it was “base effects,” then it was “transitory” and now “it’s very difficult to say.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will soon announce the date for tapering its record-setting QE program, despite weakening jobs data.

The Non-farm Payroll Report for August severely disappointed Wall Street's expectations by coming in at just 235,000 net new jobs. Many on Wall Street—because they always look for a silver lining—are now trying to twist the near half-million jobs miss into something beneficial for stocks. This is because they claim the Fed's tapering of its asset purchase program will be delayed.

Nevertheless, the Fed is growing uncomfortable with the pace of stock and home price appreciation. And, doesn't think ending QE equates to a tightening of monetary policy. Of course, the Fed doesn't want to kill the economy by raising interest rates too rapidly. However, they have become very much aware that continuing to print $120 billion each month and further inflating the stock and real estate market has become absolutely dangerous. Inflating asset prices further and boosting CPI from this point would likely soon force the Fed into a regime of rapidly raising interest rates, which would kill the recovery and engender a severe recession.

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