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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

William Watts with MarketWatch sees the “biggest Inflation scare in 40 years” on its way. He expects massive amounts of stimulus coupled with a boom associated with easing COVID restrictions to generate a surge in prices like the nation hasn’t seen since the late 1970s to early 1980s.

The signs say Watts may be right. Commodities, with the exception of closely managed gold and silver prices, have been screaming higher in recent months. Wheat, corn, lumber, copper, steel, and a host of other key inputs have all spiked higher.

The jump is already being felt in consumer goods and construction, but the bulk of the price hikes may still lie ahead.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets sprung higher on Thursday as April and second quarter trading kicked off. After suffering losses in the first quarter, precious metals may now be due for a spring rally.

The U.S. Dollar Index was up slightly this week. Regardless of how the dollar fares against other fiat currencies, investors can expect massive depreciation ahead in real terms. There is no end in sight to the inflationary cycle of spending, borrowing, and printing in Washington.

This week, President Joe Biden promoted a so-called infrastructure package that comes in at more than $2 trillion.  That’s on top of $1.9 trillion in bailouts and giveaways finalized last month.

Much of the proposed “infrastructure” spending has nothing to do with paving roads, building bridges, or expanding ports. These sorts of transportation upgrades are slated to only get $115 billion. Meanwhile, Biden would spend $174 billion on electric vehicle subsidies and hundreds of billions more on various “green” and racial leveling programs.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Mills

Inflation is the rate at which prices within a basket of goods or services (called the consumer price index or CPI) rise or fall. When a currency falls, the ability of that unit of money to purchase goods and services weakens, ie., it takes more units of currency to buy the same basket of goods as before it weakened. The more a currency falls, the less you can buy with it because its purchasing power decreases. We call this devaluation/ loss of purchasing power.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey believes we often put the cart before the horse when thinking about inflation. The renowned investor, author, and speaker states,

“Inflation” occurs when the creation of currency outruns the creation of real wealth it can bid for… It isn’t caused by price increases; rather, it causes price increases.

Inflation is not caused by the butcher, the baker, or the auto maker, although they usually get blamed. Inflation is the work of government alone since government alone controls the creation of currency.

Indeed, governments in fiat economies can literally print paper money “out of thin air,” something impossible to do with a gold-backed currency. When the United States and most of the world was on the gold standard, dollars could be converted to gold at the US Treasury’s “gold window” @ 1 oz=US$35. However, the US government was only allowed to create as much money as could be backed by the gold in its faults. (it is often said, “the Fed can’t print gold” (or silver).

When gold goes up or down it is not inherently losing value; what has changed is the value of paper money, the fiat dollar. When you buy gold to resist inflation, ie., rising prices that eat away your savings by reducing your purchasing power, it is called a hedge against inflation.

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Economics

Friday, March 19, 2021

What the "Sudden, Dramatic" Surge in Googling "Inflation" Tells You / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

It likely "typifies the end of an old economic trend and the beginning of a new one"

In the news, you hear that the big monetary fear these days is the prospect for a jump in inflation.

Here are some headlines since the start of the year:

  • Inflation Is Coming. That Might Even Be a Problem. (Bloomberg, Jan. 13)
  • Inflation concerns put Biden, Fed on defensive (TheHill.com, Feb. 23)
  • Stocks tumble as Powell signals inflation is ahead (CNN Business, March 5)
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Economics

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

We Need Infrastructure Spending to Avoid Another Texas-Sized Mess / Economics / Infrastructure

By: John_Mauldin

I just talked with one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the country (in terms of returns over the last four years). He will not allow me to use his name. But I can tell you he is a raging bull.

He believes the stimulus that we already had plus what we will get—coupled with a major infrastructure bill, plus extraordinarily easy monetary policy, combined with significant new technology innovations—adds up to a new bull market.

This is someone with 5X returns over the last four years with a very diverse portfolio. So it could pay to pay attention.

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Economics

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Keys to US / Global Economic Recovery - Part 2 / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This is a continuation of our extended technical review of what my research team and I believe will be required for the US/Global markets to enter a stronger post-COVID-19 recovery phase. If you missed Part I of this research series then you can find it here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com/....

In this Part II, we will look at how potential currency shifts will prompt new trending in various economic sectors.   The past 20+ years have really changed how the markets operate from a standpoint of capital deployment and capital function.  We certainly live in interesting times from a trader and investor perspective. There is more capital floating around the globe right now than ever before… and that changes certain things.

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Economics

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Biden Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys To Further US/Global Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

At this point in our lives, we are hoping the new COVID-19 vaccines will do their part to help move the world towards more normal consumer and economic activities.  The US Senate recently a new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package that should continue to provide assistance to various levels of consumer, state governments, and corporate enterprises.  The next question in our mind is “what will the recovery look like if/when it happens?”.  We need to look at three critical components of the global economy to help answer this question: Consumer Activity, Debt, and Supply/Demand Functions.

Consumer activity makes up more than 60% of the US GDP.  It also drives money flow as consumers engage in economic activity, create credit for new purchases and help to balance the supply/demand equilibrium functioning properly.  The participation of the consumer within an economy is essential for a healthy growing economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

Amid Uncertainty, China’s Quest for Bold Development  / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

At a historical moment of hope and uncertainty, China pledges bold economic development, despite global tensions.

China’s annual “Two Sessions” meeting has approved national priorities for 2021. Delivered by Premier Li Keqiang, the Government Work Report set a growth target of over 6 percent for Chinese economy for 2021, releasing a numeric goal after it was skipped in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

China plans to create more than 11 million new jobs in 2021, while keeping inflation rate (CPI) at 3 percent and cutting the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.2 percent. The goal is to increase annual R&D spending by more than 7 percent in the next five years, including foreign-funded R&D centers in China.

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Economics

Monday, March 08, 2021

US Economy, GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Impact on House Prices Trend 2021 / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.

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Economics

Sunday, March 07, 2021

The Case for Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently pointed out that overstimulation risk will far exceed the “output gap” shown in the latest Congressional Budget Office economic projections.

What is an output gap? Gross Domestic Product measures (or at least tries to) economic growth. Economists also calculate “potential GDP,” which is how much the economy could grow, if every available worker and other resource were fully employed.

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Economics

Saturday, March 06, 2021

US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM / Economics / Coronavirus 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Starting Monday Britains final Coronavirus lockdown will start to come to an end, first with the opening of all of Britains schools and soon followed by outdoor sports facilities, then shops with the bulk of opening including Universities to resume teaching students after Easter so in about 2 months now, by Mid May we will be largely be living in post pandemic lockdown's world when we can all soon go on holiday at home and abroad with our vaccine passports which should mark the start of a 2 year economic boom, given pent up demand and £400 billion of money printing to date. Though with 5 million on furlough then despite the coming boom unemployment will increase as 5 million workers find out whether they still have a job or not.

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Economics

Thursday, March 04, 2021

Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So the US looks set to approve stimulus spending of $1,9 trillion for the US economy during 2021, with economists singing it's praises of how basically you get a free lunch, one of huge deficit spending at zero interest rate and no inflation. Understand $1.9 trillion is 10% of the US Economy! This for an economy that has already recovered from the covid depression and was destined to grow by about 3% in 2021. So what happens when one throws 10% of GDP at an economy that is growing by 3% per annum. No you don't get GDP growth of 13% per annum, yes it will boost US GDP for 2021 but not by 10%, perhaps by another 3%, so where does the other 7% or $1.5 trillion go? Into HIGHER PRICES, INFLATION! Some of which may be reflected in the official inflation indices.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 03, 2021

Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

A fundamental tenet regarding money and inflation is that ongoing money creation by governments and central banks (Federal Reserve) cheapens the value of all money (US dollars) in circulation and leads to a loss of purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power shows up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.

As long as the amount of money that is created is somewhat moderate and regular, then the effects are presumed to be moderate, as well. Hence, we experience increases in the cost of living on an ongoing basis, but in incremental amounts of maybe two or three percent each year.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 03, 2021

The Case Against Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

For inflation to be a near-term threat, five things would have to happen this year:

  • Vaccines and other measures bring the pandemic under control this summer in the US and other developed countries.
  • Consumers use relief dollars, savings, and/or borrowing to quickly increase their spending on discretionary goods and services.
  • This spending is large enough to exceed post-pandemic production capacity and spark price increases.
  • The Federal Reserve lets the economy “run hot” and maintains its low interest rates and asset purchases.
  • Congress and the Biden administration leave the fiscal spigots open by not raising taxes or cutting spending.

All these are possible. Are they likely?

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Economics

Monday, February 22, 2021

Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard / Economics / Coronavirus 2021

By: Patrick_Watson

When a house burns down, it affects more than just the owner, occupants, and even the neighbors.

Quick, efficient firefighting is a public good. Stopping contagious diseases is another public good. The public interest demands all fires—in all forms—be extinguished before they spread.

Now we have COVID-19 vaccines that, while imperfect, are generally safe and effective. We should deliver them with the same urgency with which we send fire trucks to every blaze.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review

Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?

Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.

30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.

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Economics

Saturday, February 13, 2021

US-China Reset Key to Brighter Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After four years of US-Sino tensions, the Biden administration could speed up US recovery, while restoring bilateral trust with China. That would foster global economic prospects. The reverse would undermine those prospects.

In the United States, the third wave of the COVID-19 peaked with 250,000 confirmed cases daily after the holiday period. Following the catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic by the Trump administration, total cases are approaching 27 million and the 440,000 deaths exceed US military fatalities in World War II. 

After effective containment, confirmed cases in China remain below 90,000. With the Spring Festival holidays just days away, recent resurgences have renewed concerns about outbreaks and people have been urged to avoid travels during holidays. Despite some unease, public-health authorities believe a major outbreak is unlikely.

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Economics

Friday, February 12, 2021

Bubblicious Asset Prices, Debt Dependency, Economic Collapse / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Kelsey_Williams

The words bubbly and delicious might be more descriptively accurate when talking about champagne. However, it is not too difficult to imagine giddy salivation among the owners of Bitcoin, or Tesla stock.

And, while some might be more stringent in their terms of definition and applicability, investors in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. – pretty much anything with a $ sign in front of it – might want to rethink the current state of affairs as it pertains to valuation of their financial assets.

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Economics

Friday, February 12, 2021

UK Real Inflation is 15% to 20% - Grocery Price Rises Due to Rampant Money Printing / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Government and Bank of England would have you believe that Inflation is not a problem as they continue to focus the masses on their fake conjured out of thin air inflation indices such as CPI at just 1.4%, so as to allow the theft of real purchasing power to continue unabated as the government goes on an annual £400 billion spending spree, racking up debt that the Bank of England is busy monetization though QE, all so as to suppress real interest rates giving the illusion that the consumers are getting a free lunch, i.e. rampant government money printing deficit spending all without any inflationary consequences that the morons in the mainstream financial press are more than happy to regurgitate. However REAL inflation, that which people experience when they do their weekly shops is far higher than the fake 1.4%, REAL Inflation is at LEAST 15% and more like 20% as that is what happens when the Government starts paying 1/3rd of the workforce to stay at home, as has been the case for most of 2020 and continuing into 2021.

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Economics

Thursday, February 11, 2021

The Gripping Hand Holds Inflation / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

The question people ask me most often is when the US will see inflation.

Not to be a two-handed economist ("on the one/other hand"), but it's really the third hand—the gripping hand, which has the least dexterity and the most strength—that holds the answer.

The thing is, you cannot predict inflation or deflation until you know what happens with COVID-19 this summer.

The good news is that US vaccinations are accelerating. States and the federal government are working out bugs in the process. Supply constraints are easing a bit. It is still going much too slowly, but was always going to be an ordeal. The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine should be approved soon and will help give everyone a chance to be vaccinated by this summer.

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