Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Summer Trend Into a Crash

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Jun 08, 2009 - 02:05 PM GMT

By: David_Petch

Stock-Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands riding the index higher while lower BB’s continue to rise alongside the index, along with a potential Elliott Wave count displayed (which has a lower probability of occurrence compared to the other displayed patterns. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in stochastics 1 and 3. If the %K can manage to remain hooked up and cross the %D in stochastic 2, it increases the likelihood that the continued price movement in the S&P 500 index drifts between 900-1000 over the course of the next 1-2 weeks at a minimum before topping out. As the Captain noted and as Elliott Wave charts will later show, there is a chance the markets simply go sideways for the summer before having a fall crash…to risky for most to even attempt playing, so use risk capital and no more than 5% on any given market trade.


Figure 1

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 week MA Bollinger bands in close proximity to the index, while the lower 34 MA BB has shot above the 21 MA BB, indicating the mid-term trend is overbought. It is important to note that the 55 MA BB is at 484.99, well below the lows of 2009. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. When the %K in stochastic 1 curls down and falls beneath the %D, a top will likely have been put in place…I should point out that it could take 1-2 weeks at a minimum for this to occur.

Figure 2

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with all three lower Bollinger bands falling beneath the index. It is also important to note that in 2008, the index fell below the 200 month MA, something that never even came close to happening within the data shown below. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Based upon positioning of the %K in stochastic 3, a bottom should not be expected until early to mid 2010.

Figure 3

The short-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below. At present, it appear that a flat is forming for wave (g), which would signify the end of the rally within 1-2 weeks. However, if the wave structure is going to continue all summer long, then this would be the correct reference point to base the developing wave structure on. Things must be kept rather “loose” at present, because there is no definitive proof to support either event “will” occur. This is a probability game at present and we must sit on our hands to see what the market deals us. There will be a fantastic opportunity to short the market in the coming weeks potentially, so as this wave structure continues to unfold we watch patiently.

Figure 4

The mid-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming added in early May shown in green. Although the stock market has not followed the pattern to a tee, it has nonetheless followed it “out of phase”. The Degree of this chart is much higher than Figure 4, thereby eliminating all of the potential counts existing at Minute and Minuette Degree. With the present trend, the S&P breaking below 850 would be an early indication that a top has been put in place.

Figure 5

The long-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Green lines indicate the thought pattern forming, which implies the count could extend into early fall before declining to at least test the early 2009 lows. As mentioned earlier, the markets could do anything, so keep tight stops if trying to short the market at this point in time.

Figure 6

The CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index is shown below, with the S&P 500 Index shown in the background in black and accompanying full stochastics shown below. The put call ratio continues to remain within the confines of a triangle that does not have an apex form until August/September 2009. For this chart, full stochastics having the %K above the %D is an indication of weakness in the broad stock markets, while the %K beneath the %D is an indication of strength. At present the %K is riding above the %D, which is serving as a potential red flag as the S&P continues to rally. Whenever the %K and %D are in close proximity for extended periods of time, it creates the setup for a sharp decline in the market. We are not there yet, but a spike in the put/call ratio in the range of 0.45-0.50 should serve as an indication a top in the broad markets has been put in. For now, everyone continues to skate on the ice path beside the cliff.

Figure 7

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM) is shown below, with the HUI in the background (denoted in green) and accompanying full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 shown below in order of descent. The BPGDM continues to rise to nosebleed territory in a sloped manor, unlike the sharp rises seen earlier in the chart. The %K is above the %D in all three stochastics, indicating there still is more room for bullishness to grow before a top is put in place, suggesting the gold stocks are going higher. How higher no one knows,  but this trend could continue for another 1-2 weeks as per strength in the S&P 500 Index.

Figure 8

That is all for today. I will Update the HUI tomorrow AM. Have a great day.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

I generally try to write at least one editorial per week, although typically not as long as this one. At www.treasurechests.info , once per week (with updates if required), I track the Amex Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index and the S&P 500 Index using various forms of technical analysis, including Elliott Wave. Captain Hook the site proprietor writes 2-3 articles per week on the “big picture” by tying in recent market action with numerous index ratios, money supply, COT positions etc. We also cover some 60 plus stocks in the precious metals, energy and base metals categories (with a focus on stocks around our provinces).

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future.

And of course if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line . We very much enjoy hearing from you on these items.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

Copyright © 2009 treasurechests.info Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by treasurechests.info Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

David Petch Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules