AVGO Earnings Incoming - The Getting Lucky Stock Market Rally
Companies / Corporate Earnings Jun 04, 2025 - 08:47 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
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AVGO Market Brief 4th June 2025
Dear Patron
AVGO $258 reports Thursday after the close. Trading at a New All time High - Pumping into earnings beat as per EGF's +18%, +35%, very strong growth, PE Range 155%, Forward 100%, so AVGO is definitely not cheap at $258, unlike a few weeks ago when it traded down to $137! So what am I doing? Trimming the rally. I'm now 0% hard cash invested (minus), position about 2% of portfolio, will continue to trim because it is expensive, ready to buy the next time Trump throws a tariffs tantrum, though it's perpetual, anyway if it delivers another $100+ dump on AVGO then the limit orders are already in place to soak up the panic all the way down to $105! Not that it will get there, but you never know!
So I've got sells at $262, $266, $278, $288, $297.6.... Sells are approx 2% of position.
Buys at $199, $186, $168, $160.8, $154.6, $141.7..... Buys get larger lower down, start at 1% and go to 5%.
Yes buying ranges need updating as well as metrics ahead of next article....
Tuesday sells AVGO, WDC, Micron which pop me over 30% cash, note that still means I am 70% invested.
S&P is within reach of 6000, base case remains for a new all time high as per article targeting of 6300+ by August, but don't you lot wait for 6k before hitting the take profits buttons! Then wail at me from 5000 that you did not sell at 6000 because you were waiting for 6300, this is the "The Getting Lucky Rally" maybe calling it " A Dead Cat Bounce" will turn out to be closer to the mark. Remember the only prices that matter are that which one buys at and that which one sells at all of the highs and lows that folk focus on are just noise. There's Trumps $5 trillion ticking time bomb "The Big Beautiful Booty" that is going to burn the dollar and US bonds!
Musk got handed a Key as he got burnt by Trump as does everyone who gets close to the Orange Ape, he called Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax and spending package a “disgusting abomination,”
The dude should be jacked, something's wrong..... Musk looks ill, I'm no doctor but it looks like he is in physical pain hence probably reliant on pain killers, cocktail of painkillers and happy pills such as ketamine are not good for ones brain or longevity, probability for an OD event increasing.... Then what for the Tesla stock price? Sub $200 is calling....
Bitcoin is acting weak, it needs to get its butt moving and join the rally else distribution could be underway i.e. bitcoin could have a very brief fake out rally higher towards $110k before snapping back down.
Gold is looking like it's preparing for it's next leg higher, not surprising given the shit load of debt printing in the pipeline....
Your analyst continuing to sell the rallies, at 30% cash on route to 31%....
Nadeem Walayat
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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