CP Lie Wednesday

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025 Jun 10, 2025 - 04:27 PM GMT

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CP Lie Wednesday

Dear Patron

If CPI comes in lower then expected then the market will immediately discount an imminent rate cut that will send risk assets sharply higher.

If CPI comes in higher then expected then that will trigger a market panic event as hopes for a rate cut evaporate which is my base case i.e. Trumps tariffs inflation.

Trumpet of the apocalypse is demanding the Fed immediately cut interest rates by 1%.

The market expects CPLIE of 2.5% for May, whilst probability favours a HIGHER reading than 2.5%, the higher the read the worse the market reaction.

This requires activating DeemGPT Deepthink....
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WHAT IF the CPI print comes in at say 2%! How can that happen?

The thing is the stock market is positioned for a run to a New All Time High, and so how do we get that with a bad CPI print?

Answer we get a good CPI, how does that happen when everything is pointing to a bad CPI print?

Answer - I's faked! The inflation is pushed back into next months data.

FAKE CP LIE so as to allow the Fed to defuse the Trump nuke that keeps exploding in their direction. Again CP LIE of less than 2.5% would be FAKE! Engineered! You can't trust the stats, any of them, alls one can do is what I am doing right now is to game play what delivers the most probable price action.

Why would the Fed yield to Trumpet?

If the Fed thinks that lower inflation after the tariffs spike is in the pipeline, i.e. economic contraction baked in will deliver lower inflation, so push inflation back so that they can cut rates, placate Agent Orange and then allow the rate cut to counter expected economic contraction, yes in subsequent months inflation WILL be higher but the rate will have been cut! After which the Fed will be back into wait and watch mode, hoping that the expected economic slowdown cools the tariffs inflation fires.

So my base case is we get a spike in CP LIE, hence I am 31% cash but game playing how we get new all time highs rather than another Trump dump suggests FAKE CPI to trigger a risk on rally on expectations for a Fed rate cut next week following which the BLS can quietly release text about errors and anomalies effecting the May CPI data, which they will correct for June data, which in today's hyper misinformation world won't matter to most. Alls that matters is that the rate was cut and the market fomo 'd

And that folks is how the Fed pulls a rate cut rabbit out of the hat, US debt deluge demands rates be cut else there remains the risk of a bond market panic event and the US is auctioning $58 billion of bonds today! $39 billion tomorrow! And $22 billion Thursday! US definitely needs rates heading lower right now!

Your continuing to trim the rally analyst watching bitcoin / crypto's starting to join the party.

And lastly a minutes silence for the 5 Waymo's that were cruelly called to their deaths in the LA protests prompting Trumpet to send in the marines to protect all self driving cars (except Tesla's).

Nadeem Walayat

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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