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Stock Market Timers, FOMC A One Day Event

Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment Dec 17, 2009 - 01:36 AM GMT

By: Guy_Lerner

Stock-Markets

For Wednesday's FOMC announcement, the Rydex market timers were betting heavy that Bernanke and company would deliver. The Fed didn't disappoint as they continue to keep their foot on the easy money pedal. Unfortunately, the market did its best to frustrate the most, and the early morning rally fizzled intraday. The Rydex market timers have moved back to the sidelines.


The bullish and leveraged assets are now 1.77 times greater than the bearish and leveraged assets. The amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund are in the middle of the past month's range. All this suggests that the Rydex markets timers were in the market briefly betting on higher prices as result of the Fed announcement. The Fed delivered; the market didn't. The Rydex market timers, like market participants throughout this rally, showed little conviction and moved back to the sidelines.

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds versus the amount of assets in the leveraged and bearish funds. This data is hidden, but the ratio of bull to bear ratio is depicted by the indicator in the middle panel. Once again, the maroon vertical lines highlight those times when the ratio was 2 to 1. The amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund is shown in the lower panel. (The chart is a bit messy but one of the readers wanted to see all this data on a single chart - no problem.)

Figure 1. S&P500/ Rydex Assets/ daily

By Guy Lerner

    http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

    Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

    © 2009 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    Guy Lerner Archive

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