Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What Do Wave Charts Say About the Euro?

Currencies / Euro Oct 25, 2011 - 01:47 AM GMT

By: Glenn_Neely

Currencies

This article is Part 1 of a 3-part interview series with Glenn Neely, founder and president of NEoWave Institute.  In these 3 interviews, conducted by blogger Bud Fox, Glenn Neely looks ahead at 3 specific trading markets (Euro, Gold, and Treasuries) through the lens of Wave structure and explores what Wave theory tells us about the next 5-10 years.


Bud:  This is Bud Fox, author of www.GreedAndMoney.com, a blog that specializes in US equity index trading. Since everything is intertwined in the trading world today, and since much of the recent activity in the stock market is focused on what’s happening in Europe, I have a few questions for you about the euro currency. From a Wave structure standpoint, can you give some insight on what the euro is probably going to do and what that might mean for the future of the euro? For example, what are your thoughts about the near or intermediate future of the euro, and whether current problems can be resolved by allowing Greece and other countries to default and potentially form a stronger currency?

Glenn:  Long-term wave charts, as well as monthly wave charts on the euro, indicate that we’re in a very large formation, which started at roughly early 2002, that appears to be a five-Wave move, but in this case it’s what I call a terminal five-Wave move. That means it’s the very last advance in the euro before a really long, large bear market begins.

This has been my assumption and published opinion in this market for several years now. And despite recent market activity, it still appears to make the most sense structurally. We’re within probably a few months of finishing Wave 4 of that pattern on the downside. This would, of course, indicate one final advance back toward the highs of 2007 and 2008.

As things stand right now, it appears that the euro, in relation to the US dollar, will be going down for the next three to six months. It may reach down into the 1.3 area and eventually will go back all the way to 1.6 or maybe 1.7, but it shouldn’t go any higher than that. Once that final advance completes, that should be the end of the bull market in the euro.

Why would it be going up after all this gloom and doom? I’m not really sure. A lot of times Wave theory implies things that logically don’t make sense. They don’t fit the fundamentals, such as the situation with gold, which I’m sure we’ll get into later.

The news on gold has been really bullish. They’re talking about printing currency. The government is going wild and not controlling the value of the dollar. Then all of a sudden the value of gold drops $400 in a matter of a few weeks. That didn’t make any sense to most people.

The same kind of thing could happen with the euro. It’s going to go down and sideways for a while, synchronizing somewhere with the fundamentals but then starting a big rally because there are too many people expecting things to get really bad, and markets have  a perverse way of doing the opposite of what the majority believes.

After they’ve all been burned on that assumption, maybe the market will finally be ready for a very prolonged bear market. I have to assume that if that happens, the possible demise of the euro could take place.

It could mean one of two things. Either the US dollar will go up a great deal in value and the euro will go down a great deal, or they’ll both move in opposite directions severely. I’m not sure which one of those is the answer. As far as specific questions relating to the policies and politics in Europe and how that’s going to pan out, I just have no idea.

Bud:    What do you predict the timeframe will be for this prolonged bear market that will follow three to six months after the final rally of the euro?

Glenn: We first have to let the decline take place, which will last three to six months and maybe even longer. Then the final rally could be very powerful. It would appear to be coming out of a contracting triangle, which typically produces fast market action.

Based on past formations, the previous first wave lasted about three years, and the third wave lasted about two years. The minimum would be at least a year. Maximum would probably be three years. It’s somewhere in that ballpark. Then that would be the end of the euro bull market that started way back in 2002 and even further back in time than that.

From there, the bear market could probably last a decade or more, based on a very large terminal formation that would not only produce a violent collapse in the price of the euro eventually, but  would indicate that we’re at the end of a major long-term uptrend.

I assume this could imply prolonged deterioration in Europe and its economy, the value of their currency and so forth. It would be a very prolonged bear market in the value of the euro compared to the dollar. Part 2 of the Glenn Neely interview will focus on GOLD, and will look ahead at the near and long-term Gold market, through the lens of NEoWave theory.

About the author

Founder of NEoWave Institute, Glenn Neely is internationally regarded as the premier Wave analyst. He has devoted more than 25 years to mastering Wave theory, stock market predictions, and successful trading. In 1990, Neely published his advanced Wave analysis process in his classic book, Mastering Elliott Wave. In the following decades, Neely continued to evolve Wave theory to make it objective, practical, and consistently accurate. This evolution produced NEoWave technology – a precise, step-by-step assessment of market structure, which results in low-risk, high-profit trading and investing. See for yourself: Subscribe to NEoWave’s 2-week Trial Service. Learn more Glenn Neely and NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services at www.NEoWave.com.

© 2010 Copyright  Glenn Neely - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in