Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse - 7th Dec 21
How to Read Your Smart Meter - Economy 7, Day and Night Rate Readings SMETS2 EDF - 7th Dec 21
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares - 7th Dec 21
INTEL Bargain Teck Stocks Trading at 15.5% Discount Sale - 7th Dec 21
US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend - 7th Dec 21
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally - 7th Dec 21
The New Tech That Could Take Tesla To $2 Trillion - 7th Dec 21
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Stocks Lessons Learned in 2011 and Implications for 2012

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Dec 31, 2011 - 06:15 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article2011 certainly was a difficult year for gold bugs. Gold barely held onto its gains for the year while Silver went parabolic and eventually fell to negative on the year. Mining stocks? Don't ask. The large caps (gdx) are currently down 17% on the year while the mid-tiers (gdxj) are down 41% and the explorers (gldx) are down 44%. In our last commentary we discussed the equities with respect to investing and speculating. By now, you should know that most mining stocks are speculations and do not perform consistently, even in a raging bull market.


The often hyped "juniors" have been a disaster unless you've been extremely patient and selective while getting lucky with your timing. The juniors are an excellent tool for speculation and only speculation. They cannot be bought and held. They have to be timed nearly perfectly. Ironically, many advisors who are "doom and gloom" types favor the juniors. Some of these types are super bearish on the USA. They've expatriated, waiting for the collapse of the USA while holding juniors. This foolhardy strategy has helped them sell newsletters but hasn't been too profitable.

Below we show a chart of the CDNX next to the S&P 500. They appear nearly identical which means that the juniors do well when the overall market does well and they perform poorly when the overall market is falling.

$CDNX S&P/TSX Venture (CDNX) Composite Index

We should have learned a few things by now. If you are really bearish then you want to concentrate your investments in Bonds, cash and Gold and completely avoid all speculative mining stocks. If you are more optimistic then look to buy quality companies and speculate in some of the juniors. We should also have learned that the dollar is not going to collapse and the US is not going collapse or go into hyperinflation. Anytime you hear this talk, get as far away as you can. This talk is romantic, enticing and can be powerful but it is never profitable. It is entertainment and fantasy. We are seeing what will be a slow motion transformation of the monetary and financial system.

Pertaining to Gold we hear nonsense that you should avoid the equities because they are rigged or shorted by hedge funds. We recently explained why the shares are under-performing. How timely is this frustration from the gold bugs? Last we heard it, it was late 2008 and a tremendous buying opportunity.

All this being said, now is the time to be optimistic and aggressive on the mining stocks and even the juniors. Various sentiment indicators, if not comparable to 2008 lows are nearing 2002 lows. The coming bottom in the sector will certainly be a major bottom. Technically, the large cap gold stocks have broken down but interestingly, this breakdown occurred with a bullish percent index (% of stocks on a P&F buy signal) of 10%. Back in 2008, the equities began to breakdown with a BPI of 30%. The October decline began with a BPI near 70%. By the time the BPI fell to 10%, the sector had bottomed.

GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners

Traders, investors and speculators need to be a bit more patient as the market bottoms. It could be a few days or perhaps a few weeks but it should be clear one month from now. Most stocks are likely to have big rallies. How do we find the ones which will outperform? Those trading near highs with strong bases are likely to have substantial breakouts provided the fundamentals are there. Many juniors have been beaten badly but the ones with substantial cash positions, tight share structures and promising prospects have a chance to explode off their bottoms. We were cautious and neutral for most of 2011 but we are bullish on 2012. If you'd like professional guidance in navigating what lies ahead, while managing risk, consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Trendsman@Trendsman.com
Subscription Service

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in