Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Bottom Targets Trend to $4000

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jan 06, 2012 - 06:55 AM GMT

By: UnpuncturedCycle

Commodities

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere has been so much talk about gold and so little understanding of the reality behind the move in the price of the yellow metal over the last 90 plus days that I think it’s necessary to separate the wheat from the chaff. I want to discuss what gold has done, where it’s at now, and then end with where it’s going from here and postulate why it’s going to do what it will do.


Right now you need to understand that gold is beginning the twelfth year of major bull market; perhaps the most unprecedented bull market in our lifetime. Here’s a quick snapshot of what that bull market has looked like since the 1999 bottom and the 2001 retest of that bottom:

and from the point of view as an investor, this is about as beautiful as it gets. As I mentioned above gold is entering the twelfth year of its bull market and has posted gains in each and every year. Below I have listed gold’s closing price on the last day of each year:

 

 

2000 -- $273.60

2001 -- $279.00

2002 -- $348.20

2003 -- $416.10

2004 -- $438.40

2005 -- $518.90

2006 -- $638.00

2007 -- $838.00

2008 -- $889.00 

2009 -- $1096.50

2010 -- $1421.40

2011 -- $1566.80

 

I know of no other market that can make this claim although I will admit that I don’t follow certain markets like milk, wine and ferrets.

Now I want to look at the same time period but from a different perspective, this time in terms of corrections, because every primary bull market of any duration experiences secondary corrections. Every significant move in price has reactions and there is no way around it; you just have to be smart enough to recognize it for what it is, a reaction, and sit tight. So here it is:

 

If you include the current reaction, the eleven year old bull market is now in its seventh correction and the previous six have run anywhere from 12.1% on the low side to 28.9% on the high side. The current reaction that has led to all the negative rhetoric is stuck right in the middle at 17.2% and yet the media trips over itself to call a top, just like they did the other six times. I would like to point out that they were wrong then and they are even more wrong now, if that’s possible, and here is why.

I have drawn a very simple nine-month daily chart of gold and I’ve put in the only two lines that matter. The top line is downward sloping and represents resistance while the bottom line is also downward sloping and represents support:

For those or you who have followed my work you’ll recognize the support line from articles dating all the way back to the September low. Two week’s ago I mentioned that I was looking for a test of strong support at 1,522.30 and a couple of days later we did in fact spike down to 1,523.90, and I now believe that will prove to be the bottom.

One of the reasons I believe we’ve seen the bottom has to do with the 90-day cycle, one of the most dominant cycle’s in the markets over the last decade. Gold topped with an all-time closing high of 1,900.60 on August 22nd and then declined to a closing low of 1,548.70 exactly ninety days later. That in my opinion is not a coincidence. Since then gold has rallied to yesterday’s 1,622.20 close, and that was the second consecutive close above what was good resistance at 1,605.50. What’s more the back-to-back double-digit rallies on Wednesday and Thursday were in spite of strong rallies in the US dollar and general weakness in stocks. Three weeks ago such conditions would have driven the price of gold down twenty or thirty dollars, so it appears we have a change in character. As I’ve mentioned before a change in character often precedes or accompanies a change in direction.

Perhaps the most important development in the world of gold has to do with the fact that China, one of the world’s largest importers of gold, is no longer content to buy their precious metal for the floor of the COMEX or London metals exchange. Why? There are two principal reasons:

  • The COMEX has more than US $86 billion in contracts (obligations) floating around at any one time. Yet in storage they have slightly less than US $3 billion. So the COMEX is not only woefully short of supply should there be a run, they are allowing large traders to flood the market with paper gold in an effort to suppress the price. If you’re China and you’re building your inventory, that’s not in your best interest.
  • There are questions regarding the purity of the metal sold by the COMEX and London metals exchanges.

I should mention that a number of larger players, like Sprott and Kyle Bass, are following in China’s footsteps and the end result will be a default by the COMEX and a collapse of the paper system.

All of these big players are now going straight to all the large mining companies and they are inking deals to buy all their production right from the source! That means that the flow of physical into the COMEX will slow to a trickle and eventually dry up altogether. That in turn will expose the biggest fraud of all, i.e. that the US has no gold. The purported massive gold supplies that exist in Ft. Knox, New York and several other places are all a work of fiction. The gold disappeared a long time ago. That should make a lot of foreign central banks that supposedly have gold on deposit in New York, very, very unhappy!

Finally, all of those calling for an end to the gold bull market seem to forget one important thing. All major bull markets end with a spike up based on greed and euphoria and not a top molded out of fear and despair, as would be the case today. Fear and despair would mark a bear market bottom but it has never signaled a top in a bull market and this will not be the first time. Gold has not topped, I believe the bottom in the reaction is in, and if I am right we are about to embark on the third and final phase of our bull market, and that’s the phase where the general public finally piles into the gold market. It is almost always the most lucrative phase and it is the phase that always caps a major bull market. That phase will take gold up and through US $4,000 with fewer interruptions than most could imagine. My advice is to buy gold (silver) here and hide it some place until all the smoke clears.

This is actually a title to an article written by Eric De Groot and found on www.jsmineset.com

Giuseppe L. Borrelli
www.unpuncturedcycle.com
theunpuncturedcycle@gmail.com

Copyright © 2012 Giuseppe L. Borrelli

- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in