Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Set for Major Advance towards $30 Within Next Two Months

Commodities / Gold & Silver Feb 03, 2008 - 03:07 AM GMT

By: Roland_Watson

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSilver continues to advance this week into the $17 territory and onto a level somewhere we believe in the $20 to $30 range. That difference between $20 and $30 is a lot to investors who are especially leveraged to silver through stocks, options and futures but also to those who hold large quantities of silver be it in ETFs, pool accounts or in other secure deposits.

At this point let me give a brief update on how one of our indicators is getting on. I call it the RMAR or "Relative Moving Average Refined". This technical analysis indicator is a sell signal generator working in the multi year range. Typically a sell signal is flagged every few years depending on whether gold and silver is in a major bear or bull market.


The indicator is based on the difference between silver and its 200 day moving average. However, that number on its own still leads to false signals; hence a proprietary filter is applied to get the stable results we see in this indicator. Also, the RMAR is primarily a silver indicator but because of the twinned nature of gold and silver, when silver tops gold tends to top as well.

As of last week, the RMAR had a value of 0.97 which means it is about 30% below its sell trigger value of 1.30. If we bring up a chart of how the RMAR value has fluctuated during this 5 year silver bull we immediately note two spikes coinciding with the silver price spikes of 2004 and 2006. The silver price is shown in green.

Though the ultimate price of the silver top was not known in advance, this was not required (as if it could be acquired!). When the RMAR reached a value of 1.30, the price run ups were at near exhaustion and ready to collapse within weeks if not days. Timing was of the essence since silver quickly ate up all the gains of the previous months.

The performance of the RMAR for the 2004 and 2006 spikes is given below.

Peak Date Peak Price RMAR
Exit Date
RMAR
maximum
RMAR
Exit Price
Distance
from peak
6th April 2004
$8.25
1st April 2004
1.34
$8.12
2%
11th May 2006
$14.78
17th April 2006
1.32
$14.09
5%

 

The RMAR for 2006 actually called a sell on the first peak of a silver double top so though taking profits in long positions was the right decision, going short silver at that trigger point needed some caution because a short lived leg up was to follow. Note the requirement for careful management of stop loss positions for such leveraged plays.

So with this track record in mind, what can be anticipated for the next few months? Note from the diagram that when silver begins to move, the RMAR begins to move too. In fact, since the value is at about 1.00 just now, we compared how long the 2004 and 2006 RMAR runs took from a launch of 1.00 to a 1.30 sell. The answer was four and three months respectively for 2004 and 2006.

So, if the RMAR is going to trigger a sell signal in a similar fashion to previous spikes, we may not anticipate a top in silver until at the earliest May or June. Considering the duration of the previous bull runs, this seems in accord with past data. However, you know the old financial caveat; the past is not always an indicator of the future.

We will continue to monitor this indicator (amongst others) for subscribers and begin to marshal silver assets for sale as the sell threshold approaches.

 

By Roland Watson
http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com

Further analysis of the SLI indicator and more can be obtained by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain the first issue of The Silver Analyst free and learn about subscription details. Comments and questions are also invited via email to silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk .

Roland Watson Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in