Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Vision Cloudy...Continues Lower....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Nov 10, 2012 - 10:42 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCloudy vision is what the market tries to avoid. It hates uncertainty. That's understandable. In the real world, none of us do either. The market is trying to understand what now. With the fiscal cliff dead ahead, who is going to step up on both sides and make something positive happen by meeting somewhere in the middle of each sides belief system. Is it possible for both sides to come to an agreement by checking their egos at the door? In the past, that hasn't proven to be the case and this is what really bothers the market right now. Even today, we heard from Boehner and Obama and both talked about hoping to be able to agree to something. That's not what anyone, especially the market, wants to hear. It wants to see them walk out together to announce that they will work ceaselessly until they find a cure. They will do whatever it takes to make the fiscal cliff become a bad thought that never became a reality.

The market is not feeling good about the chances of things working out, and thus, you see how poor the action has been since the election results became known. It is clear the market wanted a more pro-business leader in Romney, but beyond that, it also wants a new normal of both sides working together, no matter who is in office. Right now it's the old way of life. Not good for the bulls. Very good news for the bears. So the market has spoken and it's trying to tell the big boys that ruin, I mean run our lives, to get going. Make things happen in a positive way and show you're putting the people of this country first and that you're willing to leave your egos out of the game for once. Just once!

The selling since the election was across the board except for that good old standby, Add SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and silver to the mix. The same old folks. No matter where you turn, sector by sector has taken it on the chin. There's nowhere to really run or hide. Semiconductors and transports were healing up very well, only to see them both fall away. Software and hardware. Retail. And so on. Just nowhere to go.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) had a small bounce today, but is down over 155$ off its recent top. No mercy for the very best of the stock market world. The market's focusing lately on the highest P/E stocks that are so violently overvalued. Sure, everyone is getting hit to some degree, but if you're a high P/E stock you're really paying a huge price with action to the down side. Often you can find safety in the lower P/E and higher dividend stocks, but the move lower has taken these stocks down as well. That's when you know you're in trouble and that the market is trying to send a message across to everyone in charge.

Markets do try to send messages, folks. If it's not happy with what it sees it reacts with forceful moves down. It's like a little child trying to get its parents attention. It will do what it can to get noticed and a large move down over a few days is its way of trying to get noticed. Now that there's no safety anywhere it foretells of more selling to come since few will step in willingly until we get more clarity from both the democrats and republicans alike. Without certainty, or news to make the child feel better, the market will, over time, move lower. It will move lower throughout the stock market world just to be sure the message is heard.

What you all want to really know is, are we now entering a new bear market. Fiscal-cliff problems that don't get solved and send us into a strong recession can, on its own, send a market reeling in to something bad such as a nasty bear market. We hadn't seen anything really bad in terms of distribution regarding volume. Some stocks are still being rewarded on their earnings reports, meaning good news is accepted as such. We are not complacent. We don't have many of the usual ingredients that can help start a new bear. However, just like when we had the financial meltdown, something terrible can start a new bear without any of those ingredients. It's possible we are about to start a new bear and watching the Nasdaq slice right through its 200-day exponential moving average, along with the Dow, makes one wonder. Normally that level would be touched and the market would explode if it's healthier and in a bull market.

Not this time. The S&P 500 got to that level and did hold but not exactly in a resounding fashion. We're not seeing the type of price action one would equate with a healthy market environment. There's no way to know for sure what's happening, but again, we need to see something special take place in a positive fashion out of both sides to prevent the United States from entering into a recession. If the market smells that this won't be the case and that we will enter a recession, we will see the market fall a lot more than it already had and a new bear will begin.

In the end, with the Dow and the Nasdaq already below their key support levels or the-200 day exponential moving average, only the S&P 500 remains above, and this leader is barely above. If the S&P 500 loses 1375 or that huge level aggressively then the market could literally free fall. The Nasdaq needs to take back 2954 and the S&P 500 needs to hold above 1375. If it joins the Nasdaq below 2954, things will likely get ugly very fast. So know to adjust accordingly should that take place any time in the future.

I wish I could be more positive, but in the end, it will come down to our leaders getting together to make sure it all works out regarding the fiscal cliff.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to!

© 2012

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in