Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

A Look Back At Stock Market 2015......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Dec 31, 2015 - 10:27 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

While 2015 was a boring year for the market, it wasn't boring for traders, and the experience overall was not a good one. It was the year of transition. The year where the bulls didn't get spoon fed the way they had for so many years prior. They had become accustomed to getting exactly what they want all the time. If the market fell a bit, no worries. It'll just blast back up in short order. It was the year when the market said not so easy this time. Time after time! As the year moved along we saw the bull-bear spread tumble lower, getting as low as 7% last week after hitting near 47% just a few months back. The constant neutrality has been playing on the emotions of those ravaging bulls. The giving-up process began after roughly eight months of being left in the cold due to high expectations.


The culprit in my opinion is mostly from those monthly charts, which have been flashing negative divergences for longer than I can remember. It's still hard for me to envision a market blasting high with force based on those monthly charts. But it can happen, especially since froth is long gone from the equation. There are other factors, such as stock valuations along with a declining economic back drop. The ISM Manufacturing is now officially in contraction with the last reading being below 50.0, and doing so by more than one point. We get an update on that early next week. A declining economy, poor valuations, and bad monthly charts usually would equal a rapidly declining market, but the Fed has held things up through liquidity and low rates. So to sum it up, I see 2015 as the year when reality caught up with the market to some degree, but one that held up due to the Fed. The combination is difficult on the minds of traders, and most likely they had a bad time of it. A very tough year for the masses.

To understand the nature of a declining economy we need look no further than the world of the transports. Everything in the sector seemingly painted a picture of a declining global environment. Truckers, airlines, and especially those railroads, took it on the chin in a big way, especially in December where the sector was down roughly 7%. A very nasty time of it since the Ism declared an economy in contraction last month. Oil is in decline and while that would seem to be good news, hauling that oil is now harder since demand is going away. Folks are spending less so the airlines aren't seeing the traffic. You get the idea. Declining commodity prices isn't always the good news one would think it would be to the world of transports.

Until the United States economy starts to rock back up one would think this important, real-world sector is going to struggle for the most part. Other bearish sectors exist, but none more than the world of commodities. The endless bear market is still with us and showing no signs of letting up. Gold and gold miners fall very hard, and then once sufficiently oversold they rally to unwind, but then quickly fall again to new lows. There are still no sustainable signs that things will be getting better there any time soon. Truth be told, there are actually very few areas looking healthy. A few technology stocks are carrying the day, but overall nothing is great out there. It's still a bad economy and the majority of sectors are reflecting that reality.

The market for the most part is flat for the year, but the trend in theory is higher until the S&P 500 loses 1993. That's the longer-term view. Short-term, we have strong support at the 200-day exponential moving average at 2043. 2094 is resistance followed by 2104, and then 2116. 2134 the top or the old high. The market is doing a whole lot of nothing, but you don't want to get too bearish too soon just because we aren't going anywhere. You want to be appropriate. You look for set-ups, but you don't chase overbought. Best to buy at oversold or at least back at neutrality on the sixty-minute oscillators. Buying strength in this type of market can be a very bad idea for the most part.

This is not the market of 2009-2014. Things are very different now, and far more difficult. Nothing is easy for either side, but it's best to keep a small upward bias for now, until we lose support levels at 2043, and then 1993. A loss of 1993 with a bit of force and volume would be lights out time for the bulls. So be careful. Don't force a market that won't allow for that type of behavior. Adapt to where we are. Accept it and you'll come out on the other side mostly unscathed.

Peace and Happy New Year,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2015 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in