Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How Demographics Decided Brexit

Politics / BrExit Jul 12, 2016 - 12:15 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Politics Stephen McBride, Garret/Galland Research

The June 23 decision by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union shocked many people. If we take a closer look at voter demographics, however, the reasons behind the Leave victory become much clearer.

Below, we look at the most significant voter patterns to emerge from the referendum.


Voting by Education Level



The demographic trend which had the strongest correlation to voting patterns was education level. Those who hold a degree voted 71% to remain in the EU, while 66% of those with no learning past high school voted to leave.

If we look at how local areas voted, these patterns show up again. In areas where less than 25% of the population holds a degree, the average Leave vote was 69%.

Compare this to areas where 45% of the population holds a degree and we see the average Remain vote was 74%.

Voting by Age



There was a clear divide in voting patterns when voters are grouped by age.

For the 50-and-older crowd, 64% of those 65 and older and 55% of the 50-64 group voted to leave. Of the 30 areas with the most elderly people, 27 of them voted to leave.

Compare that with the 71% of 18-24 year olds who backed Remain.

Voting by Income Bracket

No measure of voter traits is more direct and linear than income. The above chart shows a near mirror image between higher-income Remain voters and lower-income Leave voters.

With few exceptions, areas with a median annual income of over £30,000 heavily backed Remain.

Were the high-earners swayed by the effect Brexit would have on asset prices?

Maybe, maybe not. But in every area where 40% or more of the local population earned less than £22,000 a year, the majority voted to leave. And those in lower income brackets generally have fewer assets.

A macro look at the voting map shows other divergences. London split with England, and England split with Scotland.

Another voter angle of interest is marital status. 

The young, single professionals from London and the inner cities strongly voted to stay in the EU. The majority of rural married voters chose to leave.

Immigration and Voting

There was ample debate about immigration in this referendum, and there were clear divisions in voting patterns.

Of all the areas in the UK where the population mix is over 30% immigrants, only one (the town of Slough) voted to leave. Generally, the higher the immigrant population, the higher the Remain vote.

Immigration was a central issue for the UKIP political party in the 2015 general election. UKIP supporters voted 95% to leave.

Another stark divide: of the 30 areas where people most identified themselves as English, all of them voted to leave the EU. 

The lack of physicians, long wait times to see a doctor, a crumbling national healthcare system, and an under-resourced education system have pushed these areas to the brink. They have had enough of the EU.

The Advantage of Numbers

Although Remain won big in many voter segments, Leave voters were victorious by over 1.2 million votes.

A close look at voting patterns and we can see the outcome came down to basic arithmetic.

The strongly Remain 18-24 year olds make up about 13% of the UK population.  Whereas the over 65’s number over 16% of the population. The high “gray turnout” may have swung the balance.

Around 25% of the UK population has a degree. The highest number of graduates live in London, where the rate is 60%.

When we turn to household incomes, around 25% of the population earns between £15,000 and £24,000 annually. Only 8% of workers earn £45,000 or more.

It seems pretty clear that the size of each demographic segment played a decisive role in the Brexit vote. The British underestimated the voting power of the UK’s poor, older, and less-educated.

This group wanted change. They had the advantage of numbers, and they made it happen.

Subscribe to The Passing Parade

A rousing weekly romp on economics and markets with a dose of politics and other follies, The Passing Parade is published every Friday by Garret/Galland Research. Click here to get your free copy sent straight to your inbox.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in