Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

China: Beyond the Olympics Bird's Nest

Economics / China Economy Sep 05, 2008 - 04:32 PM GMT

By: Jennifer_Barry

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI don't usually follow the Olympics closely, but these Games were different. The 2008 Beijing Olympics were an event of great and unusual cultural, political, and economic significance to the world. Most commentary has naturally focused on the athletics, and I have not seen much serious analysis on these other topics. I decided to highlight the economic issues behind the Olympics.


In the press, the Beijing Games were repeatedly termed China's “coming out party,” but I think that phrase trivializes what the nation has accomplished. China is no mere debutante dressed up for a ball, she is a powerful woman seeking global respect. She wants to regain the pride that was lost during the humiliation of the Opium War, when Britain not only forced China to pay for the illegal drugs she had destroyed, but also coerced her to give major territorial, legal and trade concessions.

The status of China is radically changed today. The nation has enormous stockpiles of money from its manufacturing might, and the larger-than-life spectacles in the opening ceremony give a small demonstration on the power of 1.3 billion people when they work toward a common goal. China does not merely have a dominant Olympic team, but it is the third country to have a successful manned spaceflight.

As Bob Costas pointed out in his interview of President Bush, America no longer has much leverage when it comes to pressuring the Chinese government. Much of the U.S. manufacturing base was outsourced to China years ago. America's trade deficit so far in 2008 is approximately US $481 billion. Even the 35% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index since 2002, and the controlled increase in the yuan has not been enough to make most American exports competitive with Chinese products.

The U.S. economy is particularly vulnerable to a politically motivated sell-off of assets by a sovereign wealth fund, like the one run by China. According to a Congressional report released in January, “foreign investors now hold slightly less than 50% of the publicly held and publicly traded U.S. Treasury securities, 25% of corporate bonds, and about 12% of U.S. corporate stocks.” Overseas investors control over 44% of the U.S. national debt.

These dangers to the financial system are not just theoretical. Since China has approximately $1 trillion in dollar denominated assets, last year two officials threatened the “nuclear option” of dollar sales if the Bush Administration did not reduce the level of political pressure.

Then in August, Yu Yongding, the former advisor to the Chinese central bank, warned the Treasury Department not to let Freddie and Fannie fail. He stated that if “international investors are not compensated adequately, the consequences will be catastrophic,” implying retribution by China. The nation has been selling GSE bonds this summer, not trusting the implied backing of the U.S. government.

I believe the economic actions of the Chinese government demonstrate its attempt to be mindful of the past, both its pitfalls and its glories. While it won't be bullied by other nations, the policy of economic decentralization shows it is trying to avoid the catastrophe of one misguided ruler sending the nation down the wrong path. Unbridled capitalism is bursting out all over the country under the slogan of Deng Xiaoping, “Poverty is not socialism. To be rich is glorious.” The ruling Communist Party could therefore justify liberalization of the economy without the political reform that one would expect to accompany it, as the Communists were not about to loosen their grip on power.

While China has incredible potential in its huge population and manufacturing base, it also faces huge challenges. In order to feed and provide jobs for over a billion people, China now suffers from air pollution, deforestation, lack of clean water and other signs of environmental damage. China is now a net importer of food and energy. Most of the rural residents are poor and uneducated, and unrest over ethnic and economic issues simmers in the background. All these issues could seriously derail the spread of prosperity.

However, one of China's traditional strong suits is planning. If they make intelligent decisions on handling growth similar to their policy of economic liberalization, the country will have become the dominant power of the 21st century. On the other hand, another Cultural Revolution would be disastrous.

One of the reasons that commodities have declined so sharply is the mistaken belief that China must fall into a recession when the developed countries do. This is unlikely for several reasons. China's GDP grew 11.4% in 2007, so in order for a recession to occur (which requires negative growth), their economy would have to suffer a massive crash.

In addition, China restricted industrial activity this summer to lower pollution levels and save energy for the Beijing Olympics. These constraints contributed to the seasonal weakness in commodities, but the resumption of factories will lead to a jump in demand. The nation is still urbanizing and industrializing, so it has a backlog of infrastructure projects to complete which will require tons of base metals and energy.

Even if the West were to suffer a depression as bad as the Great Depression, 75% of the workforce would still be employed. If a sharp drop in demand occurred, China could still keep its population working by spending its current account surplus on developing the countryside, like FDR did with the Works Progress Administration in the 1930s. China is no longer dependent on income and goodwill from Western nations to keep its economy afloat.

The Chinese saw the 2008 Beijing Olympics as their opportunity to send a message to the world about their reemergence. They set the tone for their global interaction with themes of diversity, harmony, and openness. Chinese society is rapidly evolving and while it is not without flaws, their success at reinventing themselves has been breathtaking. Although nominally Communist, investment great Jim Rogers calls the Chinese the “best capitalists in the world.” China is becoming a new superpower, and must be taken seriously. Nations must decide if they will struggle against China's rising strength, or work in harmony with the Chinese.

by Jennifer Barry
Global Asset Strategist
http://www.globalassetstrategist.com

Copyright 2008 Jennifer Barry

Hello, I'm Jennifer Barry and I want to help you not only preserve your wealth, but add to your nest egg. How can I do this? I investigate the financial universe for undervalued assets you can invest in. Then I write about them in my monthly newsletter, Global Asset Strategist.

Disclaimer: Precious metals, commodity stocks, futures, and associated investments can be very volatile. Prices may rise and fall quickly and unpredictably. It may take months or years to see a significant profit. The owners and employees of Global Asset Strategist own some or all of the investments profiled in the newsletter, and will benefit from a price increase. We will disclose our ownership position when we recommend an asset and if we sell any investments previously recommended. We don't receive any compensation from companies for profiling any stock. Information published on this website and/or in the newsletter comes from sources thought to be reliable. This information may not be complete or correct. Global Asset Strategist does not employ licensed financial advisors, and does not give investment advice. Suggestions to buy or sell any asset listed are based on the opinions of Jennifer Barry only. Please conduct your own research before making any purchases, and don't spend more than you can afford. We recommend that you consult a trusted financial advisor who understands your individual situation before committing any capital.

Jennifer Barry Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules