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Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast

ElectionOracle / General Election 2019 Dec 06, 2019 - 12:49 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

If one looks back to 2017 then two things stick out where the Manifesto's of the two main parties were concerned.

1. Jeremy Corbyn promising to ramp up government spending by nearly £50 billion per year or about 2.8% of GDP to be funded by tax hikes of £50 billion on the top 5%! That included a "Robin Hood" tax on financial transactions. Where in reality Labour would have been lucky to get half the tax hike they were budgeting for and thus set to increase the deficit by £25 billion per year. Where Brexit is concerned, Labour had ruled out a No Deal Brexit.

2. Theresa May's "strong and stable" promised to get Brexit done but no new voter bribes, just to continue to move towards raising the personal tax allowance to £12,500. A manifesto full of weak pledges with the underlying aim of balancing the budget by 2020 that translated into more economic austerity, hoping that the voters were too stupid to notice that they are getting nothing in exchange for the Tories wanting an increased majority. Which included the disastrous social care policy for the elderly and what came to be known as the "Dementia Tax" that cost the Tories many seats.


So the 2017 much like 2019 was supposed to be about Brexit which on face value should have favoured the Tories, but that's not how it things turned out. Instead the contrasting manifestos of Freebies vs Pain played a pivotal role in the Tories LOSING seats to Labour which was NOT reflected in any of the opinion polls at the time as it was deemed to be inconceivable that the Tories would actually lose seats on June 8th!

Have the Parties Learned Lessons from 2017?

Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast

My next article in this series of lessons learned from 2017 in forecasting the outcome of UK general elections will look at the impact of the current state of the economy on the prospects of the 2019 election, are average earnings rising at enough of a pace to boost Tory electoral prospects or not?

  1. UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast
  2. Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast
  3. What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019
  4. Marginal Seats Election Predictor
  5. Social Mood and Momentum Election Impact
  6. Opinion Polls and Betting Markets, UK General Election Forecast Conclusion

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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