Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! - 16th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21
Why Tether USDT, Stable Scam Coins Could COLLAPSE the Crypto Markets - Black Swan 2021 - 6th Jun 21
Stock Market: 4 Tips for Investing in Gold - 6th Jun 21
Apple (AAPL) Summer Correction Stock Trend Analysis - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out - 5th Jun 21
Money Is Cheap, Own Gold - 5th Jun 21
Bitcoin and Ravencoin Cryptos CRASH Bear Market Buying Levels Price Targets - 4th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021 May 28, 2021 - 01:45 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Stock-Markets

Gold has set up a very strong confluence pattern across multiple foreign currencies recently.  This upside confluence pattern suggests that Gold has now moved into a much stronger bullish price phase compared to various currency pairs.  This upside move in precious metals aligns very well with my broad market cycle phase research. I urge traders/investors to start paying attention as we transition into this new longer-term cycle phase.


Recently, my team and I published a series of articles related to these longer-term cycle phases and how they related to the current market trends.  The biggest concept we want to highlight is that we’ve transitioned away from an Appreciation cycle phase and into the early stages of a Depreciation cycle phase.  Often, near this type of transition, the global markets experience a unique type of Excess Phase Peak.  This type of price pattern happens because traders/investors are slower to identify the end of a trend and often attempt to continue the Thrill/Euphoric phase of the previous market trend – until the markets prove them wrong.

You can review some of our most recent research posts about these topics here: US Dollar Breaks Below 90 – Continue To Confirm Depreciation Cycle Phase (May 23, 2021); Bitcoin Completes Phase #3 Of Excess Phase Top Pattern – What Next? (May 20, 2021) and; What To Expect – A Critical Breakout Warning For Gold, Silver & Miners Explained (May 18, 2021).

Stock Market Cycles

The custom graphic shown below highlights the phases of typical market trends through various stages of market trends.  My team and I believe we have crossed the peak level (or are very near to that crossover point) and have begun to move into the Complacency and Anxiety phases of the market trend.  As suggested, above,  the psychological process for traders/investors at this stage is to hope and plan for the never-ending bullish price trend while the reality of the market trend suggests a transition has already started taking place and the market phase has shifted.

Our research suggests the last Appreciation phase in the market took place from mid/late 2010 to mid/late 2019.  That means we started a transition into a Depreciation cycle phase very near to the beginning of 2020.  Our belief that a moderate price rotation is pending within the markets stems from the excess phase rally that took place after the COVID-19 virus event.  We’ve witnessed the sideways price trend in precious metals over the past 8+ months which suggested that global traders were confident an economic recovery would take place (eventually).  Yet, the question before everyone is, as we move away from an Appreciation cycle phase and into a Depreciation cycle phase, what will that recovery look like?  Can we expect the recovery to be similar to levels seen in the previous Appreciation cycle phase?  Let’s take a look at how these phases translated into trends in the past.

Appreciation and Depreciation Cycle Phases

The first Depreciation cycle phase (1983~1992) took place after an extended deflationary period where the debt to GDP was rather low comparatively. It also took place within a decade or so after the US moved away from the Gold Standard.  The strength in trending we saw in the US stock market was directly related to the decreasing interest rates and strong focus on credit/equities growth throughout that phase.

The second Depreciation cycle phase (2001~2010) took place after the DOT COM rally prompted a huge boom cycle in equities and as a series of US/global events rocked the US economy.  First, the September 11, 2001 attack in New York, and second, by the engagement in the Iraq War.  Additionally, the US Fed was actively supporting the US economy after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which prompted many American’s to focus on supporting a stronger US economy.  This, in turn, prompted a huge rally in the housing market as banks and policies supported a large speculative rally (FOMO) in Real Estate.

The current Depreciation cycle phase (2019~2027+) comes at a time where the US Fed has been actively supporting the US/global economy for more than 11 years and after an incredible rally in Real Estate and the US stock market.  Additionally, a new technology, Crypto currencies, has taken off throughout the world as an alternate, decentralized, asset class – somewhat similar to how the DOT COM rally took off. As we’ve seen this incredible rally in global equities, Cryptos, commodities and other assets over the past 7+ years, we believe the last Appreciation cycle phase is transitioning into an Excess Phase Peak (see the Euphoria/Complacency phases above), which may lead to some incredibly volatile price trends in the future.

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

You may be asking yourself, “how does this translate into precious metals cycles/trends?” after we’ve gone through such a longer-term past cycle phase review…

The recent upside price trends in precious metals are indicative of two things; fear and demand.  First, the economic recovery and new technology are increasing demand for certain precious metals and rare earth elements (such as battery and other technology).  Second, the move in Gold and Silver recently is related to credit, debt, economic and cycle phase concerns.  As we’ve seen Bitcoin move dramatically lower and as we start to move into a sideways price trend in the US stock market, there is very real concern that the past price rally has reached an intermediate Excess Phase Peak.

You can learn more about how I identify and trade the markets by watching my FREE step-by-step guide to finding and trading the best sectors. Of course, my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you, with my daily pre-market reports, proprietary research, and BAN trade alerts. 

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in